Hopefully I've got the date right this time and applogies to be the starter of another thread.

So happy to have a fine day here to soak up the wetness at Maffra, mowed the lawns (now have a series of mower wheel tracks all over the place), so would not whinge at a week or so of sunny weather.

But that looks not to be? - a cold wintery change mid week (2-4mm's for most, but snow above 1600M), then the late week high moves out into the Tasman assisting humid air to advect down to us (again) and MAYBE get disturbed enough for a repeat performance of last weekend???

Heres CMC's latest guess for Friday....

Where is all this moisture in central Australia coming from and why are we having so much cloud development over desert areas that streams down into these apparently regular soakings in Vic? DVC

Well at this stage it looks promising but bit hard to tell exact locations. Certainly looks to favour eastern Victoria at this stage. There is a chance atm of storms and rain making it into NC Victoria late Friday then the core of activity will slide SE ward. But each model and run has the upper low and its surface buddy in a different place. Might have to wait and see a few more runs before they sort it out.

12Z run of CMC has pulled everything west and SW, giving NW VIC storms by Thursday evening, great storm coverage Friday and widespread solid rain on Saturday with heaviest concentration NE and E of state. GFS not quite as west but by Saturday does have widespread rain but the SW misses out. Cant wait to see EC take on it.

EC has pulled it all a little westward. Starting to get very interested. And all that moisture inland...

Ruckle, is this a prediction for Thurs of this week onwards ?? Haven't seen anything on the BOM site predicting widespread rain for Sat, but maybe I have missed something.

... and that high that I said would clear Vic into the Tasman at the end of the week actually is set to split into a double yolker with the stronger sector retrograding back into the Bight, the weaker section sitting of Gabo Island to facilitate the inflow of moisture from the NE seaboard. (GFS & AccG)

Very similar to last weekend? Stormy Friday night and a wet Saturday again?

It looks like those along the mighty Murray should be in for some rain and maybe even a storm or two. Will be interesting to see "if or how far" it will drift into Vic.

Sure looks that way doesn't it. The BOM forecast can't seem to make up its mind at all. Forecast this morning was for a fine weekend, look at it this afternoon and its a repetition of last weekend in Melb and my area. So hard to keep up with.

Hoping we get some warm, humid, unstable weather with at least one final round of rain and thunderstorms between now and the end of next Wednesday, should be fun to watch

Re: the "double yolker" bit, the event is now within the radar (so to speak) of AccR, ..... and it agrees:

BUT - if that setup ends up with the ECL that CMC is now progging, the outcome would be near-disasterous for us in Cenral Gippsland!! ...


We could end up with more than the preceding chance of storms for Friday (here) - but more the advent of a Mad Fiday Night!!!

For others, the storms are a big possibiity, and rain (welcome or not) - a strong possibility.

Certainly looking interesting on all the models now. Upper low on Thursday as far west as Adelaide on Ukmet. Nice cradled trough developing with surface low forming in that and sitting btw two solid highs. Smells like a significant rain event to me. Looks somewhat likely for eastern parts and will have to see if models keep moving things South and west as to how far heavier rains spread. More importantly than that we need to see where the upper low sets up by Thursday ish.

Exciting times. Hint of decent system hot on its heels to but that is not for this thread.

Agree Ruckle, and with the variations in the models, a significant rain event IS going to arrive at one or several regions in SA/NSW/VIC. It could be anywhere with the variance between the models that is presently evident.

BUT no matter what, storms for anyones area in the same large region above is looking more a probability rather than a possibility.

Been way out of the loop, I didnt read the title properly and thought you were all talking about an event next thursday, until I heard the weather report on Nine News tonight....

Petros - Whats the CMC stand for in the CMC model? Im not familiar with that one (...havent got silver....). That setup spells a flood event for East Gippsland IMO.

Speaking to the folks back home, they reported another 20mm+ event over the weekend which is remarkable. East Sale AWS has cracked the 100mm mark for November, I can't remember the last time we cracked 100mm in month (not in the last couple of years anyway). The younger brother couldnt hit golf balls on the Sale Practice Fairway today because of flooding.

Spent the weekend up in Sydney and missed out on Fridays storms (and the reported "mini-cyclone")... luckily no damage here, despite large trees being uprooted just a km down the road at Fordham Gardens and Toorak Road. Sadly didnt get to see any storms up there, beautiful weather for the first couple of days but rain developed on Sunday to cool things off.

Looking forward to reporting on this one over the weekend.

Its the Canadian Model Pengaz, added to WZ model stable around last summer. From my experience its a very credible (and reality tester) to GFC and AccR models - but youve got to pay $5/month to see the damned thing.

As rule of thumb is there any particular model that is more accurate at forecasting events say 4 days prior to an event then others.
The other thing I have noticed with the GFS will have a few days of all or some runs with a certain hot spot say a 5 to 7 days prior, then moves to a different area usually NSW and then a day or two prior to the event it will swing back to those same hot spots, I will be watching the next 48 hours, I have those hot spots imprinted in my memory just to see.
Oh and Fergus escaped, went missing in action for a few days I dont know how he got out of the terrarium and with the reno it is very easy to escape outside. Kids and I were devastated, but I found him out on the lawn last night sqawking and all puffed up at the dogs. He is now safely back in his home, all though seems a little subdued and not keen on eating. I hope he gets past his ordeal and is ready to forecast soon.

I hope Fergus is feeling up to it , as I think he should be pretty chirpie come Thursday friday !!!!

Yep SO I hope he is not too stressed, rather him croak then croak it.

12Z viewing of UKmet, ACCR, GFS and CMC is definitely a sign that folks in the north and east should be making sure they have suitable umbrella skills! Storms, rain quite likely to be in the NW by Thursday evening. By Friday evening activity spreads southward. This point looks to be the best chance for western and sth western parts of the state to get some rain. This is before surface low winds up and heads SE ward taking the heaviest rain over the hills and into Gippsland. For sth central areas we should get some rain, maybe even a rumble (though unless trough really goes west thats not a huge chance) Friday and some rain Saturday that rapidly gains intensity as you move further east.

Still got EC and the longer ACC to play with, till they arrive I ll just enjoy the chilly drizzle coming up the bay right now.

Edit: You can see cold air sliding NNW to our west on satellite which is going to allow the upper low to pinch off and form over SA in the next 24 hours.

This is sounding better every day, than last week's event for NE and north of Northern Country. We have to go to Bacchus Marsh again this Saturday, luckily this function is in a hall and not a barbeque outside. I would much prefer to be home and watch it all unfold. Although it seems that up here Friday is D Day.