Just got the surprise of my life. I didn't think we'd had that much, although the rain has been heavy at times. Emptied 11 mm at 5.30pm.

Long range ACC has a bit less than other models, EC has amped up for here as well. UKmet seems to be on thefritz so cant get a view of that. All in all, starting to get confident of a fall here at home of at least 20-30mm btw now and Sunday pm. Possibily more but leave my guessing at that for now, ha ha. Mildura up over 9mm by 630pm.

Well Blackacubra, I reckon your rain gauge has heralded the start of what may end up being a system of significance - especially for my area Gippsland I suspect.

The baro here has dropped from 1030+ this morning to 1028 hPa and falling steadily atm, and just as portently, we've got a strong easterly breeze/wind established here for the past 3 hours.

I dont have a frog, and havent noticed any unusual ant or any other animal activity. BUT - I am very atuned to some unsual activity from the the bipeds around Maffra right now. The town is echoing with the sound of lawn mowers - VERY unusual for a Thursday evening! - I wonder if these creatures have listened to the BOM flood "heads up" warnings issued this arvo and sense some wetness coming?

EC (unfortunately for us) is progging 46mm for Maffra this weekend and a further 33mm mid next week with the closely following active cold change. We are VERY vunerable to an upside rainfall surprise here (should one occur) - catchment wet, Lake Glenmaggie 98% full.

The BOM local forecast is for "rain" from Friday lunch right through to Sun morning - that would be bad.

CMC thinks that this will happen Friday night......



But what happens Sat pm and overnight is in the lap of the gods (cut-off lows can deliver almost nil to catastrophic rain outcomes - but make up their own mind as they "bomb" over whatever meso location they bomb at.

Edge of the seat here....

Hi Petros, all the bipeds here done the mower pushing on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday. Although, there was one slacka doing it when it was almost dark last night. Got a break in the rain at the moment. About to check that rainfall, before it starts again.

Where now up to 15 mm, and not raining at the moment.

Petros where exactly is Maffra,because in that model west Gippsland doesn't seem to get that much rainfall.

Ant we are at the exact centre of the SE quadrant of the dark green circle posted above. And yep you are right, CMC on its present run dosent think we'll get more than 10-15mm by Sat 11am.

But as I posted above, EC thinks we will get 46mm from the same system (but I added up 3 days of 24 hr total progs to get that tally).

I'd have to write 5 pages to explain what I've observed here over my 52 years but suffice to say it basically doesnt rain in Maffra unless it pours from a SE (low pressure) system. And when it does rain from such a system, its normally progged by "showers" or "possible rain" by the BOM. Hence my alertness whenever the possibility of a low pressure system might affect this region.

Ah yes, still trying to learn about these models and yeah I've never really seen eastern Victoria get light rain when there's a decent system around, only once it's weakining and it usually seems to stall over eastern parts. Hope you don't get hit too hard.

Looks like a reasonable band of showers approaching the north central parts over the next hour or two. Will hit pretty dry air initially but should at least wet the ground!

Had about a 3/4 hour break from the rain, but now it pouring.

Petros, I think from your posting of these models and explanations I am gaining more understanding. So if I am reading it correctly, Melbourne central and Tullamarine area is in the orange area and expecting over 20 ml ?? is that right. Is the colour indicator similar to the BOM forecast explorer for our area and possible rainfall of between 25 to 50 ml for Saturday 24 hrs not Friday.

Also the direction of rain from Mildura is weird, it usually feeds down to us in Vic but it is heading to SA, is that normal ?

Katyer, you are spot on, the CMC model run I posted has the date/time of Sat 11am. The rain indicated is what CMC thinks will fall over the vic areas as a 24 hrs total from 11am Fri to 11 am Sat. It is VERY possible that more rain will fall in Vic after 11am Sat.

Access the WZ models to available on the site and you will soon see the problem we all (and BOM) have, the damned things all spit up different scenarios and rain totals!

Re: Mildura rain direction - "the winds around a low will blow like the hands of a clock will go" (only applies to us south of the equator!) - and the winds around our highs go in the opposite direction but I've never heard a rhyme for that (thats your job ).

Just had a look at the water vapour satelite loop on the BSCH and it is absolutely fascinating to look at the way it is spinning up in SA and drawing in the moisture as it builds.
Noticed a few flood watch's out, for a change Goulburn & Broken River Catchment arent on flood watch. So I am presuming that the BOM isn't expecting high rain falls for this area of the ranges in the North East.
First of the rain should be here in about half an hour.

On a lighter note my forecast buddy is back, managed to put on a bit of a tune earlier, although a lot quieter then normal.

Petros, well at last I feel I am getting somewhere with my learning curve, but have a long way to go compared to most of you on here.

As for the rhyme....well...give me time to think about it. LOL!

Only old farts come up with those old proverbs Petros! (PS...I've also found out recently that I'll be relocating to Traralgon with work from January onwards, so you will gain another local poster to compete against...)

I now have a much more vested interest in what happens in Gippsland over the weekend as I have just bought a new car and will be travelling back to Sale on Saturday morning to pick it up. At this stage Im predicting a horrible trip back with heavy rain, with the heaviest rain set to hit Melbourne Saturday morning judging by current progs....

Good falls already for Mildura, well the total is impressive despite the serious impacts it is having on grain harvests up there, 18.4mm with 6.5mm in the past hour. This should be taken as a significant indicator for what may lie ahead for parts of the state over the next 48 hours.

Is it just me or have things been sped up and moved a little more eastward on models this morning? I have decided to shut up and just watch and see. Surface low(s) could form anywhere over the next day or so. Some models have little low trough on SW coast by Sunday pm?? Could be anywhere from 5mm to 50mm here at home - I surrender oh weather gods.

Edit: upper low so far west still encourages a higher fall I suspect.

Ruckle, the models performance lat weekend was woeful.
They find upper lows and influx of tropical moisture as hard as Chinese algebra.

GFS has jumped off over the past 2 runs, has no idea. EC still keen on widespread 1-2 inch falls around the state. Pretty sure none had 20mm for the Mallee to 9am this morning.

Glorious morning at the moment, won't be as sunny this arvo.

14mm last night for me. Some of those falls were very localised as the airport is only registering 9.6mm

Great looking sky with some lift evident. Plenty of sun which I think will help things along.

Glorious morning in Maffra too, with stratus cloud only just visible as it looms down from over the divide to our N. Reports of rain started at Omeo confirming Ruckles easterly extent musings.

Its all happening now, and like Ruckle, will sit back and watch (and hope Maffra dosent get hit with heaps).

From now on till Sunday morning, I'll use the satloop and radar loops as my guide to what will ulitmately develop.