from the bom website -

http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/wa/20111017.shtml

Communities in WA's north-west urged to prepare now
The Bureau of Meteorology has issued its tropical cyclone seasonal outlook today, and is urging communities in WA's north-west to prepare now for the coming wet season. The call comes as the Bureau and Fire and Emergency Services Authority (FESA) begin a tour of the north-west of the state to promote cyclone and flood awareness initiatives.

Bureau of Meteorology WA Regional Manager for Severe Weather Services, Andrew Burton, said with the wet season rapidly approaching, it is important that residents start preparations immediately. Every season brings the risk of wind damage, flooding and isolation and there is simply no room for complacency.

"Climate models are trending toward another La Niña episode, which would lead us to expect a slightly higher than average number of tropical cyclones, however, no two La Niña events are the same. While this La Niña may be weaker than the last, this doesn't mean Western Australia can expect fewer tropical cyclones than the previous season," said Mr Burton.

Coastal communities between Broome and Exmouth face the highest cyclone risk of any region in Australia, where we would expect around two coastal impacts with one of those likely to be severe. This is what everyone in the north-west needs to be prepared for from the start of the season (1 November).

"For most people a bad season is one when their community is directly affected. Last season's severe flooding in the Gascoyne was not directly associated with a tropical cyclone, but is an example of how tropical lows can also cause significant flooding," said Mr Burton.

In terms of cyclone numbers, last season was average. There were five cyclones in waters off the north-west Australian coast, and no severe wind impacts with the exception of a tornado which ripped through Karratha's central business district as Tropical Cyclone Carlos approached. Last season's intense La Nina produced a higher than average number of tropical lows, while these didn't intensify into tropical cyclones, they did threaten the north-west coast causing disruption to communities and in particular to industry.

Summary tropical cyclone seasonal outlook for north-west Western Australia
A 60% chance of an above average number (40% chance of a below average number) of tropical cyclones in waters off the northwest coast (where the average number is five).
Likelihood of around two coastal impacts with a significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal impact during the season.

There a bit of Tropical Cyclone development out here.

I don't think it's will go any where WA at the moment.

No there isn't Matthew. It's just typical momsoon cloud formations not cyclones.

Its been a slow start to the storm season for the Nwest. But realistically still on track. We always get excited for the upcoming season prematurely but so far only a handful of inland buildup action to date. This week will be the first real significant storm development for the West Kimberley and down through the Pilbara.

As for cyclones well the water temps have only just started to climb and according to the dip the toe in the bay figure we are way behind the usual SST's here which in my opinion means we are going to have a late but good cyclone season. I would be surprised if we get an early cyclone hovering off the NW coast before Xmas. More likely into January at the earliest. Saying that though NOV/DEC could be an absolute corker temp wise up here and change that outlook of mine quickly but for the time being I am happy to wait until the New year for the First WA and most probably Australian action.

Unless of course the randon early Indo/Reunion basins can pop up a traveller cyclone that drifts into the Australian far western region around the cocos/Xmas islands area.

Based on the tip n of the toe... we here in Qld are going to get very wet

Here we go poeple we might have some things to talk about in the next week and a bit if it's all go very well.

Just seeing what all of you think about that area?

Well a lots as change with the past few hours since I post that pictures I have post before things are looking much more very interesting out there.

If you up loading this link you will see what I mean again.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscolw.html

Love your enthusiasm Mathew but I reckon your around 40-50 (even more) days premature. May just be the passage of the MJO through the indonesian region which will weaken even more over the next week as it passes into the Australian Maritime region (according to the weekly BOM tropical note) . Anything is possible I guess. Karratha just had record rainfall for November, SSTemps are cranking up but it appears the monsoon is still well to our north and along way off yet from dropping down anywhere near us.

I can guarantee you though if you keep those forcast predictions on a weekly basis during Jan-March especially for WA, 8 times out of 10 you will be on the mark. At the moment though still too early. Environment is just in the gearing up stages and has a few hurdles to overcome yet to prime itself for big TC's in the new year.

Keep your eyes on WA this season to produce some exceptional TC development. But as BOM have stated nothing out of the norm just the standard 5-8 cyclones in the NWest. WA - The home of severe weather. Cant wait for it to crank up.

Slow start you say Popeye?

Nov 2 K-town gets a friggin MASSIVE storm, scared the crap outta me at 3am when what sounded like a bolt of lightning landing in the vacant block next door woke me up!

Bring it on I say. Mind you, I more often prefer seeing it from the ground when I don't have to go charging thru the skies anywhere near it!

At least now I have some lockup storage for the boat so I'm happy!

Already starting to see some of the rivers get some flowing water in them from the 40+ mm that that cell dropped in the early hours. If this morning's storm is any indication on what lies ahead, hold on tight!


I've disappeared from here during the dry unfortuantely. But back for the wet, looking forward to it!

Cool Thanks.

I say give it's an another 24/48 hours or if now that developing Tropical low show be name the 1st Tropical Cyclone in that area let play it's it's all cool and see what happen.

Here Some bit of good news for WA....


If you want to up Loading it again go to this web sites right down here.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscolw.html

Get ready WA it's is your turn for the 1st Low/Tropical Cyclone developing at the moment.

A lots have change.

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00pm WST on Monday the 7th of November 2011
Valid until midnight WST Thursday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclone:
There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to
develop over the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Very Low
Wednesday :Very Low
Thursday :Very Low

ext GFS showing the first cyclone developing at 5S and 85E next week, developing very quickly and moving southwards, not threatening the WA coast, but our first decent signs for the indian ocean.

There's also the one forming south of Sri Lanka at the moment but predicted to move north west. Is that the same one Mick? The coordinates are close.

hi SJ, no this one is def south of the equator. GFS still has it forming, but a little bit later now, and also a little further west, but moves it SE now to be well off the WA central coast.

Your are very right there Mick10.

Just a little update it's is a lots activity out here at the moment I may well post it's in here as well if WA see any things come there way over the next few more days time.

Well Good news at last for WA got a very high chance of seeing a 1st Tropical Cyclone early December 2011 at the moment will will surely see what happen hold on WA it's looks like it's well could be your turn next.