Well the current event is far from over but we do have another following behind (actually 2). After a weak disturbance brushes through the SW Sunday a trough should be lying across the state Monday. It will become warmer and looking like some storms will pop up, maybe a better chance on ranges near the trough but anywhere along it is a chance. Tuesday looks pretty warm to hot, shouldnt dry out to much and with a sharp cool change approaching from the west some storms in the west and then spreading eastwards a chance. There should be a rainband out of this either over night or Wednesday AM at this stage. Cool and showery behind (could be pretty chilly central parts by Wednesday pm), some showers in the cool air , particularly to eastern parts where a reinforcing shot of cool air is an outside chance late in the thread period. Anyway, we can muse more about it by later tomorrow when this current rain is done. Also models might be better with this system gone although having said that they are all reasonably well aligned for this one.

Not sure what to make of this Ruckle. Models are still digesting the big event and don't really see a "reset" in models.

EC (which has been struggling of late) throws a little bit out there, but I like the location of the trough and the expected timing of the cold front. Overnight "sharp" cool changes seem to enhance nocturnal conditions and GFS suggests that it'll be 20c at 2am and then much cooler by dawn.

Should be a noisy night on Tuesday.

They are all pretty similar to this morning although the EC and GFS 12z runs are slightly less aggressive with the cold air intrusion on Wednesday than they have been. Its still close enough to set up a nice thermal boundary. So after some "chance"type storms on Monday Tuesday PM looks a good chance out west, spreading eastwards and overnight in Melbourne and central parts could be the odd spark. Cool with showers to follow, possibly a heavier band just behind the change for eastern parts and that reinforcing cold showery surge still a chance out east later in this thread. CMC still going for solid totals in central parts and strong cold air surge. ACC gives us a cold Wed afternoon as well.

... and typically for me, I can see a scenario where IF the following high back in the bight was to arrive 12 hrs or so later than presently progged, another cut-off low over Vic!

Bringing this CMC scenario back a couple of hundred kms would do the job......


With everything so wet, even 10-20mm from storms and the following rain band will leave the Latrobe R in minor flood for near a fortnight.

Well the 00z run doesnt bring to many surprises. EC and GFS do bring the colder air closer to the mainland Wednesday particularly in the SW again, which should act to enhance any precip.

Tomorrow, chance of storms exist although most models have them skirting the SW coast, but could be the odd one just about anywhere as a weak trough sloths across the state. Tuesday, storms late in the west are a reasonable chance and they may make it to central parts by middle of the night, you never know in the eastern high country as well during the afternoon. Main front looks to be around morning time in central and SW parts so a smidge later than it first seemed. Precip still looks to be increasing in intensity as it moves east, particularly south of divide.Cool and a few showers around coastal parts till the end of the week.

Storms are exploding over the goldfields in WA atm and it does look a belter of a front coming up from the deep SW. Weatherfest 2011 continues!

Yep agree Ruckle, my cut-off low possibility has well and truly been put to bed.

BTW - a great pracy there!

12Z run, much the same. Models are pretty lined up. Short range ACC has thrown up some purple colouring for extreme eastern Gippsland for Wednesday, bit wet out toward the hills behind Orbost if that one came off!

15.5/13 at home, sky dull, almost looks like winter when fog has lifted. (looking at some of the RH's around I think it is).

Except for the possibility of isolated thunderstorms, I reckon we'll be lucky to get 20 mm out of the next 3 days.

hi guys just had a look


Melbourne TAF: (THIS TAF MAY NOT BE THE LATEST ISSUE)
TAF AMD YMML 271650Z 2718/2824
VRB05KT 9999 SCT005
BECMG 2720/2722 35010KT 9999 -SHRA SCT045 SCT100
FM281400 36014KT CAVOK
FM282000 36022G35KT CAVOK
INTER 2718/2721 9999 BKN005
PROB30 INTER 2803/2810 32020G35KT 3000 TSRA SCT020 SCT050CB
RMK FM281700 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT
T 15 17 21 25 Q 1012 1014 1014 1013


TAF SUMMARY:
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH SOME POSSIBLE LOW CLOUD PATCHES THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TEND NORTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A
SHOWER OR TWO LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND THE CHANCE OF A TS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLEAR AT
NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND SOME MOD TURB DEVELOPING.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL:
10% 02-03Z THEN AS PER TAF.

OTHER POSSIBILITIES:
LOW CLOUD PATCHES MAY NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE AERODROME THIS
MORNING, PARTICULARLY IF WINDS TEND NORTHERLY EARLY.
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH A RISK OF GUSTS AROUND 40KT.

What do you guys reakon not a good day for a spot? i just had a look out side it looks like it might all be embedded

Some more storms sounds great - BUT seriously, 33C Tues and down to 20C by Thursday, what a great start to summer grrrrr.

Cj about in the LV comming back on the train from Melb this arvo, looked promising and was suprised how warm it was at Trarlgon.

But by the time I got back here it was a stiff ESE'ly seabreeze and everything killed off almost immediately around 4pm (although back calm now).

Looking like we may only get 5-10mm max unless a lucky storm tracks over us tomorrow evening.

AccG still thinks this is a possibility albiet for our far East tip. Not much consequence for most of us - but remember our folk in Mallocoota are Victorians as well. And like the rest of us are on soggy ground - with the additional complication of a lake system/ocean interface to consider!

Bit of lightning in the SW of the state in the last little while. Bit more virga coming across but maybe some wet ground here and there. Muggy as hell, DP been above 17 at home for awhile. Approaching system is maybe a tad slower than at the start of this thread. Hot day about tomorrow, storms late in the far west, change (proper) through central parts around mid morning. Wed. Could still be storms overnight, there is a prefrontal trough and hopefully moisture holds to kick something off on that.

Hee hee, band is thickening a little on radar as it moves east. Might be a chance to wet the ground yet!

Yep... could be due, at least in part, to left-over moisture from the previous event, was very humid today, gave me a bad headache but on the plus side, this heat and humidity makes rain more likely, those showers are really increasing on the Melbourne radar atm, even a bit of lightning starting to show, so we could be in for some thunderstorms tonight!

Just checked the radar and what a surprise I got !! There are quite a few patches of activity going on in the west. Question is, will it build and move across the central area or skirt around us and head off down south to the bay ?????

Skirt around. Is this evidence of a forcefield?

radar 64km, is showing strange things around Bacchus Marsh.

Fishman, excuse my ignorance, what does forcefield mean ?
This seems to really be building near Beaufort, but does seem to be heading south on the 64km. Sometimes we get it when and if it hits Bacchus Marsh or Ballan. I will watch this intently for awhile now lol!

I believe the forcefield is just a joke that the precip/lightning never can get through to the point, so like it might be raining everywhere else except in one spot where it just all dissapitates.

A storm deflector, a magnetic deflection wall like a tractor beam pushing things away.

It is a running joke I have with several friends that I have.