Well the current event is far from over but we do have another following behind (actually 2). After a weak disturbance brushes through the SW Sunday a trough should be lying across the state Monday. It will become warmer and looking like some storms will pop up, maybe a better chance on ranges near the trough but anywhere along it is a chance. Tuesday looks pretty warm to hot, shouldnt dry out to much and with a sharp cool change approaching from the west some storms in the west and then spreading eastwards a chance. There should be a rainband out of this either over night or Wednesday AM at this stage. Cool and showery behind (could be pretty chilly central parts by Wednesday pm), some showers in the cool air , particularly to eastern parts where a reinforcing shot of cool air is an outside chance late in the thread period. Anyway, we can muse more about it by later tomorrow when this current rain is done. Also models might be better with this system gone although having said that they are all reasonably well aligned for this one.

Not sure what to make of this Ruckle. Models are still digesting the big event and don't really see a "reset" in models.

EC (which has been struggling of late) throws a little bit out there, but I like the location of the trough and the expected timing of the cold front. Overnight "sharp" cool changes seem to enhance nocturnal conditions and GFS suggests that it'll be 20c at 2am and then much cooler by dawn.

Should be a noisy night on Tuesday.

They are all pretty similar to this morning although the EC and GFS 12z runs are slightly less aggressive with the cold air intrusion on Wednesday than they have been. Its still close enough to set up a nice thermal boundary. So after some "chance"type storms on Monday Tuesday PM looks a good chance out west, spreading eastwards and overnight in Melbourne and central parts could be the odd spark. Cool with showers to follow, possibly a heavier band just behind the change for eastern parts and that reinforcing cold showery surge still a chance out east later in this thread. CMC still going for solid totals in central parts and strong cold air surge. ACC gives us a cold Wed afternoon as well.

... and typically for me, I can see a scenario where IF the following high back in the bight was to arrive 12 hrs or so later than presently progged, another cut-off low over Vic!

Bringing this CMC scenario back a couple of hundred kms would do the job......


With everything so wet, even 10-20mm from storms and the following rain band will leave the Latrobe R in minor flood for near a fortnight.

Well the 00z run doesnt bring to many surprises. EC and GFS do bring the colder air closer to the mainland Wednesday particularly in the SW again, which should act to enhance any precip.

Tomorrow, chance of storms exist although most models have them skirting the SW coast, but could be the odd one just about anywhere as a weak trough sloths across the state. Tuesday, storms late in the west are a reasonable chance and they may make it to central parts by middle of the night, you never know in the eastern high country as well during the afternoon. Main front looks to be around morning time in central and SW parts so a smidge later than it first seemed. Precip still looks to be increasing in intensity as it moves east, particularly south of divide.Cool and a few showers around coastal parts till the end of the week.

Storms are exploding over the goldfields in WA atm and it does look a belter of a front coming up from the deep SW. Weatherfest 2011 continues!

Yep agree Ruckle, my cut-off low possibility has well and truly been put to bed.

BTW - a great pracy there!

12Z run, much the same. Models are pretty lined up. Short range ACC has thrown up some purple colouring for extreme eastern Gippsland for Wednesday, bit wet out toward the hills behind Orbost if that one came off!

15.5/13 at home, sky dull, almost looks like winter when fog has lifted. (looking at some of the RH's around I think it is).

Except for the possibility of isolated thunderstorms, I reckon we'll be lucky to get 20 mm out of the next 3 days.

hi guys just had a look


Melbourne TAF: (THIS TAF MAY NOT BE THE LATEST ISSUE)
TAF AMD YMML 271650Z 2718/2824
VRB05KT 9999 SCT005
BECMG 2720/2722 35010KT 9999 -SHRA SCT045 SCT100
FM281400 36014KT CAVOK
FM282000 36022G35KT CAVOK
INTER 2718/2721 9999 BKN005
PROB30 INTER 2803/2810 32020G35KT 3000 TSRA SCT020 SCT050CB
RMK FM281700 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT
T 15 17 21 25 Q 1012 1014 1014 1013


TAF SUMMARY:
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH SOME POSSIBLE LOW CLOUD PATCHES THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TEND NORTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A
SHOWER OR TWO LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND THE CHANCE OF A TS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLEAR AT
NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND SOME MOD TURB DEVELOPING.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL:
10% 02-03Z THEN AS PER TAF.

OTHER POSSIBILITIES:
LOW CLOUD PATCHES MAY NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE AERODROME THIS
MORNING, PARTICULARLY IF WINDS TEND NORTHERLY EARLY.
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH A RISK OF GUSTS AROUND 40KT.

What do you guys reakon not a good day for a spot? i just had a look out side it looks like it might all be embedded

Some more storms sounds great - BUT seriously, 33C Tues and down to 20C by Thursday, what a great start to summer grrrrr.

Cj about in the LV comming back on the train from Melb this arvo, looked promising and was suprised how warm it was at Trarlgon.

But by the time I got back here it was a stiff ESE'ly seabreeze and everything killed off almost immediately around 4pm (although back calm now).

Looking like we may only get 5-10mm max unless a lucky storm tracks over us tomorrow evening.

AccG still thinks this is a possibility albiet for our far East tip. Not much consequence for most of us - but remember our folk in Mallocoota are Victorians as well. And like the rest of us are on soggy ground - with the additional complication of a lake system/ocean interface to consider!

Bit of lightning in the SW of the state in the last little while. Bit more virga coming across but maybe some wet ground here and there. Muggy as hell, DP been above 17 at home for awhile. Approaching system is maybe a tad slower than at the start of this thread. Hot day about tomorrow, storms late in the far west, change (proper) through central parts around mid morning. Wed. Could still be storms overnight, there is a prefrontal trough and hopefully moisture holds to kick something off on that.

Hee hee, band is thickening a little on radar as it moves east. Might be a chance to wet the ground yet!

Yep... could be due, at least in part, to left-over moisture from the previous event, was very humid today, gave me a bad headache but on the plus side, this heat and humidity makes rain more likely, those showers are really increasing on the Melbourne radar atm, even a bit of lightning starting to show, so we could be in for some thunderstorms tonight!

Just checked the radar and what a surprise I got !! There are quite a few patches of activity going on in the west. Question is, will it build and move across the central area or skirt around us and head off down south to the bay ?????

Skirt around. Is this evidence of a forcefield?

radar 64km, is showing strange things around Bacchus Marsh.

Fishman, excuse my ignorance, what does forcefield mean ?
This seems to really be building near Beaufort, but does seem to be heading south on the 64km. Sometimes we get it when and if it hits Bacchus Marsh or Ballan. I will watch this intently for awhile now lol!

I believe the forcefield is just a joke that the precip/lightning never can get through to the point, so like it might be raining everywhere else except in one spot where it just all dissapitates.

A storm deflector, a magnetic deflection wall like a tractor beam pushing things away.

It is a running joke I have with several friends that I have.

Check out this thread for an example http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...lai#Post1035662

Pretty interesting direction on those cells btw Colac and Aireys Inlet atm, almost a right angle to the rest of the showers...

I thought I had a copyright on that!!

What ever was on the radar has just evaporated!

Thanks Fishman and Ant. I have never heard that term before.
Well it seems to have gone down south very quickly, is that normal ?

It's fairly normal for fast moving cells/cells without much structure to dissapitate quickly. There's still another band to come but I doubt it'll do anything.

Ok, I have never seen it move so quick before, so I learn something new every day. Is that other band you refer to the one over in Mt Gambier ? that seems to be moving fast as well.

The 'line' near Mt.Gambier have about a 5% chance of making it to Melbourne, even if they can make it, its most likely they will turn south. But you never know what could happen when the DP is 18c at 11pm.

Also will there be any sun tomorrow because cloudy hot days are boring.

Yeah, there's some lightning in it but it'll likely go south/not last as the temp cools down.

Okay, thanks for that Ant.

As for sun Tommy, don't think so, expecting it to be windy and cloudy.

Tommy there may be a couple of small sunbreaks in the morning but the sattelite shows lots of cloud cover+ the forecast says mostly cloudy.

On the way to work this morning I found it interesting that there was no wind between Pakenham and Hallam except for one of the higher points at Berwick where it was blowing a very strong northerly.

Guess thats the night inversion stable layer not mixed yet??? Well if it is/was its mixed here at home. Already quite gusty. Going to be really windy in a few hours. Impressive blob of storms near the SA gulf region and beyond. Western VIC might get some razzle dazzle later and who knows around late evening in Melbourne. (GFS and to lesser extent CMC have storms in the NE later today as well). Strong hints from the models of quite a solid drop from about Bairnsdale eastwards tomorrow.

Wind starting to get very gusty here in Hallam. Yes I am very interested to see how the day unfolds Ruckle.

OK, farmers only back in headers late afternoon yesterday because of high moisture content and of course means that they will be flat out today. Very very very hot blowy northerly here today lots of dry feed which is a bit of a worry. Machinery (heaaders, chaser bins etc) are working in paddocks around the district flat out, which is always a fire worry on days like today.
On another note, "razzle dazzle" YIPPEE.

Maybe this includes Yarrawonga?

Ruckle said
" (GFS and to lesser extent CMC have storms in the NE later today as well)."
Heavy rain this morning about 5am,lasted roughly 5 secs. Temp 26c so warming up quickly to the expected top of 36c.

Just a little cell in the northern suburbs developing

It is currently 38.2c under verandah in the shade. Experiencing very nasty hot gusty winds. The weather is very unsettled to say the least. Baro is 1007.

Just stepped out of the office and noticed how black it was out that way. Lets hope it keeps on building

All dissapitated now Oh well, I'm sure then be some activity for those who are willing to get up in the early hours.

BOM have under-cooked the chance of storms.
DP's are remarkably high given we are under a NW flow.
32/13 into the soundings returns 1700+ CAPE and -5LI, Total Totals around 51.
They are very fast moving given the uppers, but I'd suggest flash flooding more than likely for metro area this afternoon and evening.

SWW out for Damaging Winds and Flash Flooding for Gippsland and the North East.

Heavy shower just went through here at Hallam and yep my car windows are down. Gotta hate that

Given the tiny size of that shower, you were unlucky to have got wet.

Petros said yesterday
"AccG still thinks this is a possibility albiet for our far East tip. Not much consequence for most of us - but remember our folk in Mallocoota are Victorians as well. And like the rest of us are on soggy ground - with the additional complication of a lake system/ocean interface to consider!"

Looks like AccG may have been right, Petros, going by present radar.

Very warm day here and felt muggier than the 40% RH indicated when I got home t see a 35C max on the thermometer. Saw a weak high based cloud mass spit a single CG lighting strike over Cowarr on the way home from work in the LV. Family reported distant rumbles at Maffra before I got home, we got about 9 half hearted drips at the E edge of this.

Reports from BOM about a big storm travelling through Morwell/Moe area heading to Yarram if it doesnt rain-out over the Strezleckiis.

Not anything of promise in our NW sky atm, but radar shows cells futher up on the ranges out that way and we do still have 29 C/39 %RH so will not give up hope of a storm this evening (and especially with the actual cool change front tomorrow morning).

Spring! - the best season of the year. I'm about to fire up the BBQ so will be watching the NW sky with great hopes shortly.

Storms have formed to the east along the NNE wind and WNW wind border, one of them as Petros mentioned looks a belter. The storms are kind of on a Pseudo dryline type feature, DP's much lower in the WNW flow immediately behind it and higher to its east in the NNE flow. This effect even more pronounced up in NSW and was explained /covered well as always by Severely Tall in that thread. Now the westerly is moistening up and catching it the storms may weaken and lessen in coverage out east as there will be less of a boundary.

For the rest of us we wait for what looks a healthy front and cold pool.

Yeah Gabby, latest AccG shows the bubble at the tip of the cold front lingering long enough to create this.....


Not good news for our far Eastern mates.

BUT a bulleseye hit over Darthmouth catchment which will surely lift levels significantly given the wetness from last weeks burst.

A kick in the guts to the Murray irrigators who are being forced off river irriagtion just when the worst drought in Australian recorded history has been "survived" - yet all head end catchments are nearing max!

AND - its darkened to our N and rumbles are again audible here, radio is splatting nicely. maybe we will catch one!!

We DID catch one (or more correctly the W edge of it), only CC lighting, distant (> 6 seconds) - but with lashinbgs of heavy rain and decent wind gusts from the northerly quadrant. My first proper storm that I can say I experienced at Maffra this season

Now back to that (delayed) BBQ!

Nice cell just went over us with more cells lining up.These are moving to the SE.

Petros, I think it was you who told me about these graphs and I am looking at them now each day. They seemed to be fairly accurate with expected rainfall for my area last weekend. I find it better than the BOM forecast explorer for possible rainfall. So thank you.

Uh could anyone chuck me a link to those maps?

Sustained winds of 122km/66knt reported at Latrobe Valley BOM station before 7pm.
Will be some serious damage as a result out of that.

Yeah was around 530pm and a few mm's in short time as well, a ripper!(except if you suffer any damage of course)

Few lightning strikes off the west coast but gee, thats a long time away (seemingly)

Sorry ruckle, 5.30pm, you are quite correct.
Getting no word of much damage at this stage.

NE copping a pounding yet BoM thought it was time to knock off and drop the STW warnings.

I'm an idiot - forgost to post that the storm gave us 4.5mm rain in very quick time. Looking at the BOM radars across the state atm, we are up there with the best of them - with a near miss -

The radar must be busted as it is showing nothing for the central area.

The stories will come out down there at work tomorrow so I will let you all know tomorrow night.

Now we all have to settle down and patiently wait for the cold front to arrive tonight - no doubt all of us wondering if a storm will wake us up. And for me, wondering if it will all clear by 12pm so I can get another Wednesday golf round in (I've accumulated all my time in lieu days to use late this spring - wish I had thought of it years ago!

??? - do you mean you have to wait a bit longer like the rest of us?

I found them on here WZ under models.

No links surfaced in your last post Katyer. Just go to WZ home page for you, click the "radar and Maps" drop down box above whatever you see.

Now comes the tricky part (and the reason I suspect you have been unable to "see the light").. the damned clickable links on the drop down box dont give you what you thought you selected!

You have to be very persistant here, you have to click the "Models" category to the right, then slide down to the "australian charts" option, like I bet you have done dozens of times and got a result (normally the Australian radar/Lighting chart that you have already seen and book marked).

Its a bug in the site that happens to me here too and also at work (on a far superior computer system).


What you need to do is try for about 30 times and then bingo! - one of them will be what you intended. BOOKMARK it straight away. And from there you will be off flying, most default models available default to the option providing accumulated rainfall that you have been looking for I reckon.

If you do no good email the WZ administrators and hope that they dont continue to ignore your frustration evident in your persistant posts in the Vic forum. Good luck!

Wind has just come up here people. And it's like someone opened a furnace. Gee that air is hot. Temperature had dropped down to 32 degrees, but now it's gone up to 34 degrees, in about 10 minutes.

Jeez

Oh thanks Petros, what I noticed with mine is the drop down menu kept falling down, eventually I just realised to right click on the link and click open in new tab.
Anyway I reckon most of the storms will just be some heavy spots developing at random times and a few rumbles of thunder for the central areas, doubt there will be any structured storms.

We have a calm warm evening atm, distant "red" lighting to our far N quite frequently and whiter/closer (less frequent) flashes to our E.

The radar loop shows no rain to our N so its a bushfire starter. Very nice night to sit out and observe.

Petros, you are my Guru !! Thank you for your support.
Found all of that. I did get a message saying "pro access is required to view high resolution maps" but I can see a lot of info for me to play with at the moment. I do have restrictions with some things as I don't have Silver Membership or whatever its called.

Last few satellite loops the band in front of the front approaching SE SA seems to have thickened up. Heres hoping for an early hours light show..

I've been looking at the radar for SA and that line of activity, whats the chance of that making its way to central Vic ? I can't decide if it is moving inward or out to sea.

Wind didn't last long, and the temperature, has dropped to 33.3 degrees. That was crazy , it's never boring around this place. Always something strange happening, around here.

Not much, remembering the fact that central areas will only get 5-10mm out of this I doubt the full force of it will hit central.

The red lightning I've been watching for 30 mins surely couldnt be the reportedly huge storm in Albury? (clear across the other side of the great divide?).

.... or is it a dry storm somewhere up top?

Nothing in between Petros, so a fair chance it would be the one.
16mm for Albury this evening.
Lakes Entrance and Bairnsdale also scored a storm in the oast hour.
Am amazed that we only get 9am & 3pm updates for Lakes Entrance (????????????)

Pressure dropped 2hpa in the last hour. Pretty impressive, temp back up to 27.

Looks like Mt Gambier just got a touch up as well.

It's hot then it's cold, it's cold and it's hot' it's hot then its cold exeterah...

What's our storm chances?

I reckon at the front of the front is our best bet, like the previous 2 saturdays where it stormed then just lightly rained.

Wellt reporting in. Come home from netball at 9.00pm and organised the rugrats to bed and have spent the last hour watching the most amazing electrical activity we have in the east at Albury. Yes a long way away, but with stars in the sky here, I could seen the lightning ccs going upwards above the distant clouds. Could only wish to be living in the east is tonight, cause it is certainly spectacular viewing from here and still visible. Yes Petros I dare say what you are seeing is what I am seeing, it is a full on light show!
Very calm here and still very muggy still.

Would love to be in polly-land right about now.

Yeah I am optimistic there will be some Nocturnal Electricity after midnight. I just hope It happens where I am too.

Been busy tonight and each time I get back to the radar something else is going on.
The BOM have posted Issued at 10:39 pm Tuesday, 29 November 2011.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Edenhope, Hamilton, Warrnambool, Portland, Casterton and Lake Bolac.

Cancelled the one in the east. Gosh this is hard to work out with direction from SA, seems to be streaming down to Mt Gambier and then moving out to sea not inland, but who knows ?

There seems to be something building over Melbourne metro or is it just another radar anomaly.

Not sure what is going on, bit confused with the BOM radar and WZ radar, wind direction & 48 hr forecast. Will check it a bit later. More interested in what is going on near the border.

Nah that white stuff happens all the time, don't know why but it's never actual precip that falls.

I don't know about rain, but we got dust. So much for the brand new cream lace curtains. They'll be brown by the morning. She's blowing a gale, and if it was daylight the sky would be chocolate brown. Can hardly see the town lights. You can even taste and smell it in the house with everything closed. Ahhhhhhhhhh!

We had a storm out Paky way this morning. Didnt bother getting out of bed but its always good to hear thunder and see the odd flash here and there.

Werribee to edge of Geelong copping a pretty good storm atm, more brewing on the ranges, fingers crossed. Nice and cold in the far SW as well...still high totals being progged by some models for far east Gippsland for today.

How cool does the lightning tracker look with that straight line of lightning that started out near Ballarat. Currently hearing thunder here in Hallam along with some heavy rain.

This looks almost uncanny to the tuesday morning 2 weeks ago.

It's literally just roll after roll of thunder.

I thought nothing was going to happen??? Great CG fest on the way to the bus stop, brilliant stuff, brief deluge at home as well. More thunder since getting to the city. These cells are rocketing!! Nice one over NE burbs atm.

Its been a great morning with the thunder rolling around for ages now. Intersting radar atm showing a change coming up from the s/w

Pretty much when the change comes through it'll just shower for the rest of the day.

Looks very strange to have 2 sets of echoes moving at right-angles to each other.

Goodmorning all. Looks like an interesting morning for many of you. Jealous!

6mm so far from 3 bouts of short, sharp storms.
Thunder still rumbling away, made the school drop off very adventurous!

NE and Gippy is with a great chance of 30mm and some nasty storms later!

NW movement all morning, now an interesting echo from the SW.

Appears to be (trying) to develop into a squall line on the SW change.
Winds to 30knt possible, nothing too sinister.

5mm, lots of distant lightning, 1 fairly close one, 130.5mm for the month (so far) and 8 thunderdays for the month. Love it!!

I agree stormygirl. Loving the rolling storms at the moment (over the last many weeks).
Just drove from Bulleen to Wantirna (round trip)- went from lightning/rain to brilliant sunshine, back to lightning/rain.
The view from Doncaster was great (360 degrees) - pockets of interesting activity all over.
Melbourne city 'blackish' cloud cover reminded me of the film "The Mist' - looked spooky

CBD currently under the clear sky between the 2 systems. The SW change is really starting to push the storm-line easterly.

Stormygirl - impressive rain totals - past the annual average by the begining of November and still a month to go.

Interseting graph from Melbourne Water shows the storages at their highest level since 1999. Also, look at the lines for 1997 and 2006 - that's where the damage was done!

http://www.melbournewater.com.au/content/water_storages/water_report/zoom_graph.asp

6.3mm this morning (November 2011 total 153.8mm)

Horribly steamy last night, was still 26C at 2AM but somehow I managed to get some sleep, at least it's much cooler now (14C at 9AM). Just wish the 'southwest' scud clouds could've lifted and given me a chance to watch for lightning (if I weren't in bed lol) but ah well a few pics of this morning's thundery rainband, now onto the 'coldies' currently moving into Melbourne, hoping there'll be some hail involved as forecast

Interesting little pockets of activity over my way moving across from the west, we normally get something as it passes through Ballan or Melton. Had some gusts of wind just now and dark sky. Had a huge clap of thunder around 7am and heavy rain, then it stopped. Had a few showers on and off this morning, but nothing like what is going on over in the east by the look of the radar !!!

Yep, squall line that's for sure.

Some light humour. It was just as well I am home alone, I laughed out aloud a few minutes ago, I had posted about a dark sky overhead and sure enough a shower followed. Not more than a few minutes later.....sunshine !!!! I will always find Melbourne's weather fascinating, as they say, don't like it, just wait 5 mins and it will change. Gotta love it !

Just saw some nice 'small' updraughts over the Dandenongs.

Apart from a few little showers this afternoon - I reckon that about wraps it up for this event in Melbourne. The east has still got a few hours of fun and games.

Looks like a bit more then a few little showers to me.

Gotta love Melbourne's weather! 35.9C yesterday, storms in the morning, followed by 14.7C today (min at 1:13pm). Baro bottomed out at 998hPa in the early hours this morning, now up to 1004hPa.

Very scattered looking isn't it ? I am wondering about the accuracy of this radar today. Looked quite intense and I was sure there were storms about, but no BOM warnings at all.
Watching a patch moving from the west toward Bacchus Marsha and Melton, keeps sliding down toward Werribee, another lot appears to be headed Gisborne way, slighlty missing me.

Well hail does usually happen when the precip on the radar is shown to be yellow +, which goes with BOMs forecast.

Just got absolutely drenched outside, still looks like there's some more showers to come.

i didn't know beers could fly in an up direction... interesting

You just have to laugh. Had my AC on during the night because it was so damn hot, now it's the afternoon and I have the heater on in my office.

129mm of rain this month which is very nice, nearly pushing 200mm in Frankston!

Was supposed to be quoting stormygirl

After 4.5mm last evening with the nearby storm, we had a rain band for the later half of the morning and the odd shower after lunch adding another 4.0mm to give a 8.5mm tally for this event.

Several periods of very strong westerly wind shreiked through here this arvo to help me lose 5 golf balls on the soggy-but-green Royal Maffra Golf Course.

Strange day today weather wise.
I had to go out mid morning to Melbourne and driving back through Airport West the wind
was blowing a gale and some clouds were black.
Got home although windy and dark clouds, no rain.
I think a band of showers came through around 2.pm but by then I had left home and
was at an appointment in the town centre.
Walked out later and the ground was wet and the wind was cold.

8.1mm all up. Mid afternoon coldie was orange on radar and looked a direct hit here. Some evidence of floating bark etc. in the backyard (at a higher level than last weekend) so was definitely pretty heavy here at one point. Pity I was in the city watching it on radar. As for this morning, for 5 to 10 minutes was quite the barrage of Cg's. Great stuff.