Interesting Low pressure trough working its way once again towards NSW C tablelands and NE areas of NSW. Should see some high winds and storms Tue - increasing on Wednesday.

Current forecast seems to say that the southern tablelands will get some of that too? (hoping we will, except the high winds).

Tuesday is looking ok thus far, hoping wednesday holds up if so its gunna be a pearler of a day for vast areas of mid to western NSW. Could see some nice HP supercells about the hunter, i wouldnt count out some decent sized hail either about the place.

In my last week of holidays at the moment and I am watching this setup with intense interest. So far it has been a festival of drizzle here.

At this stage, and this is based on model guidance that is jumping all over the place I like the upper Hunter, perhaps westwards towards Dunedoo on both days. May have to cross over to the Liverpool plains, which given road conditions may be a treat (not).

There are some interesting signs of dry slots in the mid - uppers in the area, this also has me thinking hail.

Concern number one is again cloud !!!!!!!!!

Im with you there Oz, we have had a few very good set ups wasted by decks of cloud cover! and some very marginal days throw out some bonza storms...thats mofonature for ya...Im in a way spewing my sister lives upstairs from me now and not out wellington way still as i would have had a good reason to visit this week!

The only thing the models are showing out west is alot of linear shear in most areas, and its not until you get near the coast that it gets good/better turning, but again in saying that the lowers and mids dont have all that much flow, albeit should be enough to get some turning going, but the shear out west looks like it'll have enough push to make the coast with ease -if- the seabreeze doesnt put up too much of a fight.

I have noticed of late even visually the upper levels of shear have been almost non existant for this time of year, which has been our biggest hope killer.

Dungog-Gloucester/BT's areas are starting to look better for tommorow, especially wed but the road network from here is short of crap out that way with little options other then bucketts way, but if things get going early might have a chance of sitting it out at wingham and hope it beelines for me for a bit of timelapse, ive noticed alot of the action tends to follow the same track to the coast there.

If my car didnt kick into pig mode every hill it see's in the distant i'd be up into the further reaches of the upper hunter thats for sure, possibly out to nyngan narrabri, gunnedah areas even depending the roads with the recent flooding out there. The amount ive spent on this ford narrowing out its issue i could have got myself a half decent 4wd...

The system has downgraded a fair bit for the ACT region significantly which i;m not all that surprised with. Systems have been downgrading for us pretty much from the get-go this season which to be frank is depressing.

That said, i agree that the hunter is again the place to hunt for storms based on current models. Good guys up in the north!

26 / 26 here and winds Southerly with latest gust reaching 41km/h which has cooled me alittle

EDIT: 46.4kmh gust now

Looking at this with interest. Fairly sharp dryline looks in play for tomorrow, particularly south of the the Vic border near Albury to near Parkes with a bit of a southern bulge near Wagga. With this you have a rather nice NE surface flow with backing round to moderate 500mb winds. Unfortunately like many systems this year this area is a pain in the backside to chase and will not have this little black duck chasing it. Further north there still looks like being good potential, with some gorgeous dry slotting in the upper levels, giving rise to large hail potential, and most probably HP wet micros particularly later in the day. One thing of concern for the hunter area in my mind is the weaker shear, with the primary dryline looking to be stalled out west with a secondary convergence in this area. Hence the HP/mess probability will skyrocket. On the northern edge of the bulge I previously noted there is some decent shear, particularly out NE of Griffith, out towards Forbes with some nice NE turning. As such this is my preferred area (added to the better chasing terrain) at this stage.

Things I would be happy to see: Trough accelerating somewhat, and colliding the sharp dryline with the more moisture convergent area...models have been playing with it, but such would yield a much strong shear pattern and thus greater potential for the nice sort of cells we are looking for. Wednesday looks much more risky regarding potential cloudiness, but still could yield some interesting storms along the NW slopes.

Myself, Michael Keene and Feral Steve will be heading to Lithgow - not our target, but to reevalaute the day before heading north either to Gulgong, or pushing west towards Parkes. There is still an adequate bailout strategy to Dunedoo - Gulgong at Wellington if we do head towards Parkes.

Ironically my two concerns are moisture and cloud, basically a horrible upside down moisture profile.

sad to hear it's fizzing for the SE NSW, situation normal for us though these days.

Rather humid today, got to 28c and it didn't want to cool down, 24c here until the easterly arrived about an hour ago.

Looks like we're in for an interesting few days ahead. GFS is suggesting today to be a better day than tomorrow (probably heard that I have work tonight :/). With both the hunter and further out west/north-west having possible LI's of -6 or -7, out west having more moisture than on the coast. The only problem could be cloud cover and shear (and the timing of the storms, I'll be upset if all the good stuff happens after 5:30 )

I'm going to have fun watching this system unfold.

Mother nature trying her hardest to ensure we don't get a storm here this arvo, we currently have 8/8 scud coming in from the NE, very humid though. When i left for the gym this morning at 5:30 it was clear with no sign of anything but a few wisps of high cloud! One things for sure, there's going to be savage NE'er this afternoon.

CS, I would be worried if the scud was coming from the south east, but this coming from the NE under these conditions is the moisture we need..perhaps the coast wont see anything until later this afternoon/evening the only hinderance it'll be causing is to the ground heating but there is a good chance it will thin out later in the day and allow a little heating along the coastal fringes. Allready looking at a few obs around things are shaping up ok, misture level is not as deep as i would have hoped but its there. A slight inversion between the coast and coastal ranges but that should easily be beaten.

24.4c and a nice 21.2 DP and its not even 9am for taree airport which in my mind is sweet with a expected top of 29 so i reckon if it sustains as it is now come mid afternoon could see something in the ranges of 29/19 33/23 give or take
if everything else comes together im thinking a bit of a yeehah in this neck of the woods, i would be able to chase far unless the sister is willing to sacrifice her car to the golfbuggy derby to chase in, i dont have spare windows for the EL but plenty of em for her magna ;o) the charts to me are spelling big hail or lots of smallish..

the cloud from the Ne is starting to break here allready, hopefully it stays that way..Would much prefer to be out wellington/dubbo way for this evening but it looks like that area will be covered well by chasers so im happy to sit back and wait for anything to get going closer to home.

Your not wrong there CP, by the time i left for work there was big blue sky with bearly a hit of the earlier NE'ly scud.

Anyway my fingers are crossed for something on the coast later today, you just never know your luck with this city!

Very warm and sunny here, currently 27.1/19.7. Got a bit of cirrostratus about, mainly to my south. Temps and DPs around the hunter are looking pretty good so far. Hopefully it won't become too extensive.

Look forward to your discoveries OT. Yes, the sounding is a bit sad in some ways with the moisture profile. Still, with that wind shear you would think Sydney is still a chance of seeing storms drift into the basin, out west at least.

temps have already reached the max progged of 29' well close enough at 28.9 with a 20.6dp, 61% humidity and a light nne'r gusting up to 30km at taree AP there is a bit of convection getting going out to sea, about to take a drive into town hopefully there is a little something convecting out around the ranges.

We've got that high hazy cloud again, so the warmth is being kept at bay. 31 is the forecast, it's 26 currently. this happened yesterday too, high cloud kept things mild, then it cleared and the temperature zoomed up and stayed there.

BOM seem confident on their only being storms in the west this afternoon, despite the sounding showing some ok shear, so must be either the lack of moisture upstairs, or the strong sea breeze hindering heating for us.