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#1059174 - 21/01/2012 11:19 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
Mikezoom Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/04/2005
Posts: 634
Loc: Tatton, Wagga Wagga, NSW
Hi SD,

Are you aware of how broad the GM storms will be for this current event? I have looked at all my usual space websites but the only info I have gotten so far is......

"Spaceweather.com says strong geomagnetic storms are possible and high-latitude (and possibly middle-latitude) skywatchers can be on the lookout for increased aurora."

Mike. wink


Edited by Mikezoom (21/01/2012 11:21)

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#1059441 - 21/01/2012 21:36 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: Mikezoom]
SunnyDays Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 1615
Loc: Oxley Brisbane Qld


Gosh I have to remember the link I use for the GOES Xray Flux is a live stream link that will update constantly - the above won't change capturing the long duration M3-Class flare silly me blush

Hi Mike,

I’m not sure what you mean by ‘how broad the GM storms will be’ you will have to forgive me. I am thinking you might mean what rating/category on the Spaceweather Scales the expected Geomagnetic Storm will be from the Solar flare.

I’ll answer so those who don’t understand can learn and find this out for themselves should they be curious and or interested to learn.

I normally go to NOAA Spaceweather Predicition Centre - you can find out here not only what the current Spaceweather is but what is expected from any recent Solar activity. At the Top of the home page under News of the Day it will provide you with written updates such at below. If you click on the words 'News of the Day' it takes you to all past news updates.

Not sure how long ago they updated the latest news to state the following....

Quote:
SWPC Forecasters have determined that the CME from NOAA Region 1402 near disk center yesterday will likely pass above (north) of Earth. This glancing blow will cause just G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity. Look for the first signs of it around 1800Z (1:00 pm EST) on Sunday, January 22, with the bulk of the disturbance to occur Monday, January 23. Watch here for updates.



It appears as the CME heads closer to Earth it will not be as strong as first anticipated, as it will pass more North of Earth. That is a good thing - however it still could fluctuate a little just like in predicting our storms on Earth smile I was interested to see what they would rate this storm as due to it being such a lengthy MClass flare, haven't seen one like it for some time.

Here is the link to the Spaceweather Scales for Geomagnetic Storms

A G1 doesn’t have much of an impact




On the Spaceweather Prediction Centre home page it will always show you what the current NOAA Scales Activity is for Geomagnetic & Solar Radiation storms and Radio blackouts. There is lots of cool information on this site.







I will also provide this link too regarding the comment you noted from Spaceweather regarding ‘high-latitude (and possibly middle-latitude) skywatchers can be on the lookout for increased aurora’

This link from NOAA is great for information pertaining to the auroral oval - it shows Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES - http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/ Which is the Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) it orbits Earth monitoring the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that are produced by CME’s – these particles are what cause the aurora in the atmosphere.

The following image provides an estimate of the location, extent, and intensity of aurora on a global basis – this is for today UT time. Red is where the aurora is strongest.





Long winded answer Mike but I hope I did answer your question smile please let me know if I interpreted your question incorrectly.

Cheers All smile
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#1060399 - 23/01/2012 12:19 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
Mikezoom Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/04/2005
Posts: 634
Loc: Tatton, Wagga Wagga, NSW
Great response SunnyDays, thanks.


So we might not get a large scale event hey? Atleast the Sun is waking up!:)

Loving your information and the time/effort involved in replying. Keep up the good work!!! wink

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#1060987 - 23/01/2012 20:04 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: Mikezoom]
SunnyDays Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 1615
Loc: Oxley Brisbane Qld
Thanks Mike for the feedback smile - as for a large scale event from this CME not really no, just beautiful auroras. BUT we certainly will from the M9Class flare just released – just waiting for NASA to release info - I'll provide an update shortly.


Back to this event that hit the Earth today. The Earth's magnetosphere was under intense pressure as the CME hit Earth as it has received several blows this week.

The K-Index did reach KP5 as forecasted - a G1 geomagnetic storm - http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html



Here is the latest from NASA on today's impact

Quote:
JAN. 22ND CME IMPACT: Arriving a little later than expected, a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field at 0617 UT on Jan. 22nd. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field and briefly exposed satellites in geosynchronous orbit to solar wind plasma. For the next 24 hours, Earth's magnetic field reverberated from the impact, stirring bright auroras around the Arctic Circle


This following image is hosted currently on Spaceweather - by Bjørn Jørgensen who observed this display from Tromsø, Norway - it's absolutely stunning




Here is solarwatcher's update on the Jan 22 CME impact!






Now to gather you all some info on the M9Class flare eek
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#1061075 - 23/01/2012 21:29 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
SunnyDays Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 1615
Loc: Oxley Brisbane Qld
Hi Folks,

Sunspot 1402 has certainly been active today having unleashed a M9-Class Solar Flare - just shy of an X which are the strongest kind. Also noting again the curve at the highest point on the plot, another long duration flare - two in a row now.

Link to the GOES X-ray Flux Monitor - http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html



I'm still waiting for more data to be released from NASA regarding the CME produced by the large Solar flare.


In the mean time this is what NASA has to say on Spaceweather
Quote:
ALMOST-X FLARE AND CME: This morning, Jan. 23rd around 0359 UT, big sunspot 1402 erupted, producing a long-duration M9-class solar flare. The explosion's M9-ranking puts it on the threshold of being an X-flare, the most powerful kind.



Here is if footage of the of the solar flare eruption courteous of SOHO



Quote:
The Solar and Heliosphere Observatory (SOHO) and the STEREO-Behind spacecraft have both detected a CME rapidly emerging from the blast site. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab estimate a velocity of 2200 km. There is little doubt that the cloud is heading in the general direction of Earth. A preliminary inspection of SOHO/STEREO imagery suggests that the CME will deliver a strong glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 24-25 as it sails mostly north of our planet. Stay tuned for updates



Here is an image hosted on Spaceweather of the extreme ultraviolet flash



Stay tuned for more information on the M9-Class Solar Flare and what geomagnetic and solar radiation storms we can expect even with it sailing more North of Earth. I would expect amplified tectonic movement in the next 24-48 hours.

Cheers smile
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#1061090 - 23/01/2012 21:44 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
SunnyDays Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 1615
Loc: Oxley Brisbane Qld
Having just looked here at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ apparently Earth is currently experiencing the strongest Solar Radiation Storm since September 2005 and it is continuing to get stronger. I have never seen it that high before.

Spaceweather scales for an S3 Radiation storm are as follows;




Today the Earth experienced a G1, S3 and R2 solar storm;




As the M9Class flare is travelling at amazing speeds of over 2200km a second it is unknown what level storms will be produced. Stay tuned as I will be eagerly observing the data.
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#1061184 - 23/01/2012 22:39 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
SunnyDays Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 1615
Loc: Oxley Brisbane Qld
Here is solarwatcher's latest update - very informative.

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#1061372 - 24/01/2012 08:14 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
Mikezoom Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/04/2005
Posts: 634
Loc: Tatton, Wagga Wagga, NSW
Eagerly awaiting the outcome of this current event!!!!! smile

Mike.

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#1061381 - 24/01/2012 08:23 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: Mikezoom]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1114
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
2012 theories anyone??? Reminds me of the film Knowing!

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#1061463 - 24/01/2012 09:51 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: pete28]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14156
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
2012 was a film, based on a script made up by a yank with no clue about what the Mayan calender is or how it operates. Think of it this way. Last years calender hit the bin didn't it? So will this one. It is just a calender written on a stone that lasted 830(?) years or whatever it is, not 1 year and it doesn't look like it was finished and also has a fair bit of damage to it so any 'predictions' are suspect to start with. It holds no powers to predict anything but the passage of time.

The Van Allen belts diffuse most of the suns radiation and in turn cause the Northern and Southern Lights. Yes we may well see some disruption to radio, TV, Digital signals but no one is going to get fried because of it and it isn't like this is the first time it has happened either. It is a cyclical event that has happened since the solar system was formed. The warnings from NASA are bog standard ones.

Getting your knickers in a twist because of a natural event seems a tad silly to me.

Interesting, for some of us, frightening, no.

95% of the general public think a sunspot is a freckle that occurs after you get sunburnt.
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#1062047 - 24/01/2012 17:35 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SBT]
Mikezoom Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/04/2005
Posts: 634
Loc: Tatton, Wagga Wagga, NSW


Originally Posted By: Sir BoabTree
95% of the general public think a sunspot is a freckle that occurs after you get sunburnt.


LOL,

I'm in 100% agreance. Apart from the Sun going Red Giant on us (which should not happen for awhile yet) we would need it to produce something extra special to end the world ATM. It could always render all our electronics usless in the blink of an eye and take our standard of living back 100-150 years right now or tomorrow but "as far as we know" it will not kill off all life tomorrow.....


Unless...........

Mike. wink

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#1062553 - 24/01/2012 22:42 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: Mikezoom]
SunnyDays Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 1615
Loc: Oxley Brisbane Qld
Hi Folks,


Here is a quote from NOAA Spaceweather Prediction Centre Facebook page regarding the incoming CME from the M9Class Flare

Quote:
We have received reports that at least some airline flights over the north pole have been rerouted and that some other flights at high latitudes are flying at lower altitudes. We are still awaiting the arrival from the Coronal Mass Ejection which is still expected at about 9am EST (1400 GMT) on Tuesday. The SWPC forecast is for Moderate (G2) level geomagnetic storming with G3 levels possible.



Link here to see how a G3 storm will impact Earth. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#GeomagneticStorms


This shows the incoming CME and shows Mars will also receive a glancing blow





It's amazing all this stuff happens with the Sun and most of us would be none the wiser. And thankfully it is like that smile

I did see the movie the Knowing - pretty scary thought actually if the Sun ever did a big BURP like in the movie. Mike is right in a sense that the most probable threat from a big Solar Storm would be if it knocked out our Satelites as they are really sitting ducks up there floating around in space. Some are programmed to turn slightly to protect themselves however most would be knocked out. I read an article once on NASA, must find it on how dependent some industries are on GPS - I'd be happy to go back to reading a book by candle light smile


Stay tuned for updates tired
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Anyone who says sunshine brings happiness has never danced in the rain smile

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#1063564 - 25/01/2012 17:38 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
SunnyDays Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 1615
Loc: Oxley Brisbane Qld
As expected, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 24th at approximately 1500 UT (10 am EST). I checked the Spaceweather Prediction Centre and the CME has started to impact Earth where Solar Storms are in progress. The beautiful auroras were some of the strongest seen for many years.

However I'm not sure why and how to explain that the data (solar storm intensity) does not match the energy output from the Solar Flare - I'm talking out loud now - wind speed is still very high. Never A Straight Answer NASA now even say the S3 Radiation storm is the worst since 2003. It might be a little early and they will still peak. Nothing to worry about though smile







I will leave you with this beautiful photo of the aurora borealis - image taken by Chad Blakley hosted on Spaceweather



and by Jormir-Stanczyk



and by Andy Keen

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Anyone who says sunshine brings happiness has never danced in the rain smile

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#1070441 - 03/02/2012 10:07 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 509
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Great to catch up on solar activity since weeks of the wet season : ) Am always curious to how the earths satilites, communications systems etc would handle a major CME if directed straight to us, it has not happened this cycle as far as I know. The interesting thing is that Solar maximums happen every 11 years, hence, Satilites, etc have become so much more technical & sensitive from a decade ago and no one is really sure of their vulnarability ? ?
Not saying they will All perish if happens, but could pose some detrimental effects to some major organisations, imagine Wall Street 'down' for a day or so, Crypeeeze, Lol !
Prob over-reacting , , , BUUTTT ? ? ?

Magnificent Aurora captures Too, & Great Updates Sunnydays : )
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#1070873 - 03/02/2012 21:42 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: PlumbBob]
SunnyDays Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 1615
Loc: Oxley Brisbane Qld
Hi Plumbob – hope all is well smile

I’ve been so busy of late between my job and helping others that I have not been able to report much on solar activity. At present the Sun is quiet having been very active for a week with multiple M Class flares.

Unfortunately I did not get the opportunity to report the first X Class Solar Flare for 2012. It was not Earth directed thankfully so did not stress to much that I could not share it as it was unfolding frown

Skyywatcher 88 has put together a really excellent video clip showing the X Class Solar Flare using footage side by side from stereo Ahead COR2 (coronagraph) and Stereo Ahead EUVI (extreme ultraviolet imager) 195 Angstrum. It is 1.19 minutes into the video (or as imaged below if it works)



Here is another update he made of the X Class Flare
http://youtu.be/7eHEZI4ondg



Solarwatcher as well put out a video clip of the X Class Solar Flare using imagery from different wavelengths.

Quoted directly from Solawatcher

Quote:
Active Region 11402 located on the northwestern limb, unleashed a major X1.7 Solar Flare at 18:35 UTC. S2 level Radiation Storm threshold has been exceeded, R3 Level Radio Blackout, 100 MeV proton spike is in progress and a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) was reported. Immediately after this flare a Full Halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed and components may brush the earths magnetic field Jan 30th






Wonder how many more X Class Solar Flares we will get this year let alone Solar Maximum period.






Edited by SunnyDays (03/02/2012 21:45)
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#1071926 - 05/02/2012 21:07 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
SunnyDays Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 1615
Loc: Oxley Brisbane Qld
Hi Folks,

I thought I might share with those of you who have iPhones that you can download 3DSun app. I have it and love it of course smile

Here is the link to find out more about it. The app is free! http://3dsun.org/

Just remember if you don't want to be woken up in the middle of the night to be informed the Sun has burped releasing a CME I do suggest turning off the alert smile Within the app is 3D sun which constantly rotates so you see the Sun at all angles.




Hope you enjoy.

Currently Earth is in a narrow wind stream being released from a small coronal hole in the Sun's Southern Hemisphere otherwise it is a little quiet right now so not much to report. There is only 43 Sunspots as I typed this.

smile
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#1077670 - 18/02/2012 22:01 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
Ms Milo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 354
Loc: Angourie, North Coast NSW
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#1077857 - 19/02/2012 15:32 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: Ms Milo]
SunnyDays Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 1615
Loc: Oxley Brisbane Qld
Hi Folks, and Ms Milo,

Sorry I have been a little absent of late... Unfortunately at work I'm currently doing two roles which means I'm exhausted by the time I get home, and my weekends have been much the same, out and about trying to get so much done. And well I'm on Hubby's computer as mine has finally been admitted to the laptop Dr down the road for an operation to fix any number of issues - lets just say it was either that or I was going to commit office rage smile


Thanks for posting about the latest footage on Solar tornados Ms Milo as I cannot pass up the opportunity to share more about it with you all......

Solar tornados are a truly captivating type of Solar storm on the Sun’s surface – I am quite excited by this latest footage from the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) as it is the best captured to date IMO. They are not a rare event as they do happen often, but they are rare when it comes to catching good lasting footage. It's gone some what viral in the Science world LOL grin

They are certainly larger and faster than their counterparts experienced on Earth. In past observations of Solar tornado's scientists have calculated wind gusts in excess of 480,000 km and hour. As quoted in one article I read (shared below)....'The speed measurements come from shifts in the apparent wavelength of an emission from charged oxygen atoms (Doppler effect)’.

Solar tornadoes are darker clouds of electrically charged plasma which are shaped by twisted magnetic fields on the Sun’s surface - similar in nature to solar filaments and prominences but instead are forced to rotate and dance along the surface of the Sun. They are much cooler in temperature than that of the Suns surface. They appear more regularly around the polar regions of the Sun, both North & South and size wise - well they are HUGE!

Here is an exert from Fox News

Quote:
Kucera, deputy SOHO project scientist and a solar physicist with NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.
“It’s about 15,000 degrees Fahrenheit -- relatively cool,” Kucera told FoxNews.com. After all, the sun’s corona is a whopping 2 million degrees, she explained.

Such tornadoes (Kucera classed it a “solar prominence”) have been known of for decades; the European Space Agency's SOHO spacecraft captured evidence of them as early as 1996, mainly near the Sun's north and south poles at the time. And though they resemble their cousins here on Earth, they’re created entirely differently, Kucera said -- through magnetism, not pressure and temperature fluctuations.

“Those motions you see, it’s all just moving along the magnetic field somehow -- but we’re still looking to understand what’s happening with these things,” Kucera said.

The storm was created by competing magnetic forces, which pull the charged magnetic particles on the sun back and forth, creating a spinning mass of plasma that tracks along strands of magnetic field lines, NASA explained.



Here is the video – this footage spans over 30 hours from Feb 7 to Feb 8 2012




Here is prior footage of a Solar tornado - This footage was captured from time lapse videos from Dec 26 to Dec 28 in 2010 up until now it was my favourite footage smile





On Spaceweather.com click on the below image of the Sun - wait for the video to load - the footage was captured on 28 October 2010. You will see one smaller twister rotating in the top left hand side of the image and then one very large filament below it begin to rotate, twist and ultimately a fragment breaks off into space






Here are a couple of articles on Solar Tornados

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/newsroom/oldesapr/info15.html

http://sci.esa.int/science-e/www/object/index.cfm?fobjectid=12203

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/newsroom/oldesapr/tornado.txt



Here is a correct size comparison of one captured December 2010 - randomly found as I was surfing for images to share with you. Someone had gone to the effort to show just how big Solar tornados can rise from the Sun's surface.




Enjoy smile it is certainly an amazing phenomenon and why I love studying the Sun as much as I do!

Have a great day all!
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#1077878 - 19/02/2012 15:56 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
Are neutrinos are releasing? If that so it could be the change of climate.
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#1079412 - 21/02/2012 21:53 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: Noname]
SunnyDays Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 1615
Loc: Oxley Brisbane Qld
Hi Matthew,

Neutrinos are being released all the time from the Sun and go pretty much unnoticed as they pass through all matter including us humans, being so tiny that they are. I did have a couple of good links to articles on Neutrinos but I'm on my husbands computer and until I get mine back hopefully mended and in good working order - I cannot remember them off by heart to share with you at this point in time. Neutrinos are somewhat fascinating and to think scientist today still struggle to understand them - many articles I have read remain inconclusive - and well actually confuse me at the best of times smile There has been many an interesting experiment and or study undertaken on Neutrinos.

They travel so fast through space (faster than the speed of light). Neutrinos are different as they don't have an electromagnetic interaction like Protons and Electrons do (although protons are directly related to the production of neutrinos).

Because solar tornados are found to occur nearer to the Sun's poles, any eruption that may occur as a result of part of it tearing off into space, would not be squarely Earth directed (generally speaking) and therefore would not affect us greatly. I don't think from this event it would have an impact on or change our climate smile

I hope I answered your question.
Have a good evening tired
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