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#1332409 - 23/06/2015 09:47 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Great images Ken. How would we cope with another 1859er Duck? I could prob hold out for a week if it happened today. I know quite a few ways of obtaining water if I had too. Food after a week would be a prob. So would cannibals after a very prolonged time frame aka The Road. here is latest image of Sun from Nasa SDO. The sunspot that blew is AR2371 in the centre
img
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#1332412 - 23/06/2015 09:55 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: Knot]
duckweather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 2578
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
Hi Knot and all.

That 1859'er was a doozy.

Didn't see much last night (throughout the night) except for some flashes of white light (nothing on radar/sat sequences as lightning) and two meteorites. The flashes were ESE of here and the meteorites went from south to north.
The pics coming in from folks, even as far as Canberra, are stunning. If I had that perspective on the aurora, I would have sat up all night in awe of it.

Here's a link (if not already posted) of a constantly updating position of the aurora;
Aurora Service

See what tonight brings...

Cheers, Duck.

Oh and here's a link to live footage from the International Space Station;

ISS


Edited by duckweather (23/06/2015 09:58)
Edit Reason: bit extra

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#1332415 - 23/06/2015 10:25 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: duckweather]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Certainly the GMS still underway Duck ( hope addressing you as Duck is ok) . The info you provided about the clapping noise accompanying a a strong lights show was so interesting. The sound of one hand clapping springs to mind. Things are usually too noisy to hear much in our modern lives. I recall having a 'few drinks rave' years ago with some mates around a campfire about what distinguished our society from those that had come before or in some other parts of the world. Some said, ' Electricity!' Ohers 'Clothing!' etc etc. I said what really sets us apart in my opinion is the consistency of the noise we generate. Try staying in a less than ideal Hotel room in any city and you will here the constant hum drum of noises cycling through the night. And how many times have you been in a tranquil location and settled in only to have the sound of a jet ski, motorbike or a subwoofer wreck it. No wonder we seldom get to hear nature calling. There is an almost obsessional dislike of quietness these days.
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#1332417 - 23/06/2015 10:37 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4674
Photo from the Internation Space Station 4 hours ago taken by Commander Scott Kelly (dominantly red in its upper reaches rather than the more typical green):


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#1332418 - 23/06/2015 10:42 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: duckweather]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4346
Loc: NSW Port Stephens
Originally Posted By: duckweather


Didn't see much last night (throughout the night) except for some flashes of white light (nothing on radar/sat sequences as lightning) and two meteorites. The flashes were ESE of here and the meteorites went from south to north.
The pics coming in from folks, even as far as Canberra, are stunning.


Hi Duck, that's exactly what I saw last night, a couple of faint white flashes from Canberra, I stayed up till about 1.30am trying to catch a glimpse.

I've seen a couple of pics on FB from as far north as Dorrigo on the Mid North Coast.
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#1332441 - 23/06/2015 16:55 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: EddyG]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Also saw flashes here at around 0230, however they seem to have actually been lightning, going by the radar. Very unusual lightning though, may have been triggered by the GMS.
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#1332475 - 24/06/2015 07:28 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4674
Still looks on track for the next CME to start affecting us tomorrow/Fri... but decent aurora chances in the midlatitudes look to depend on whether the strongest geomagnetic storm activity manages to hang around into the night.

Here's an auroral prediction tool/map from the IPS for overnight Thursday. But this is more a better case scenario because it's based on the assumption that Kp 7 values continue into the night rather than just the daytime:


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#1332497 - 24/06/2015 10:56 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: Ken Kato]
duckweather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 2578
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
Hi folks.

Just regarding the flashes of white light I saw, they were above very small clouds, in the upper atmosphere. My guess is that what we (other WZ'ers as well) may have seen were atmospheric (or higher) electrical charges going off. I can't help but feel that if some other WZ'ers saw them at the same time as me, that could have been what they were?

Cheers, Duck.

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#1332545 - 24/06/2015 19:04 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: Ken Kato]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6596
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Still looks on track for the next CME to start affecting us tomorrow/Fri... but decent aurora chances in the midlatitudes look to depend on whether the strongest geomagnetic storm activity manages to hang around into the night.

Here's an auroral prediction tool/map from the IPS for overnight Thursday. But this is more a better case scenario because it's based on the assumption that Kp 7 values continue into the night rather than just the daytime:



Thanks Ken.

I am sure that us in Vic would not have captured the photo's/experiences of this rare-opportunity event if you didn't alert us, Well done, and thanks.

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#1332598 - 25/06/2015 14:49 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW


Magnetometer has just spiked a fair bit - there was a "CME impact" last night reported by several sites but that doesn't seem to have been an actual CME impact.

The bloke over at spaceweathernews.com says:

Quote:
(June 24 2045UTC) This seems too weak for a CME impact, especially given the speed it could be that the 3rd CME wake has ended and allowed a Coronal Hole stream to give us faster wind. Still no significant geomagnetic effects.
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#1332626 - 25/06/2015 17:25 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4674
No worries Petros. Not looking too flash for anywhere other than highish latitudes at time of writing.

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#1332640 - 25/06/2015 18:24 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Oooh nice big flare has just popped from the departing sunspot... given its position I doubt we'll get much (if anything) out of it, but impressive none the less.



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#1342131 - 28/09/2015 10:54 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4360
Loc: Brisbane
Its been a quite 3 months on solar watch but action is in the pipeline.

Big sunspot AR2422 is ramping up activity. It has sent out 3 M class flares in the past 12 hrs and looks like it could potentially drop an x class flare anytime within the coming day or do.

If it does there is a fairly big chance that any CME produced will be geo-effective. Stay tuned.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1342299 - 29/09/2015 15:58 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4360
Loc: Brisbane
AR2422 after putting out an M7 flare last night is now ramping up even more. An M1 flare commenced over 3 hours ago and is still ongoing. That's an extremely long M class flare.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1356070 - 30/12/2015 10:25 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4360
Loc: Brisbane
Keep an eye out for reports of bright auroras over the next 24-48 hrs as a forecast G3 geomagnetic storm hits earth generated by a CME thrown out during a long duration M1.9 flare earlier in the week.

Whilst not one to knock out power grids it should lead to some significant aurora activity.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1356200 - 31/12/2015 10:13 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
Sunday Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 06/02/2011
Posts: 15
Loc: Port Stephens, NSW
Thank you Locke, Ive really missed this thread smile

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#1356253 - 31/12/2015 16:05 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4360
Loc: Brisbane
Looks like the storm just started to impact. In the past couple of hours the KP index has jumped to 4.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1372566 - 07/04/2016 15:13 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
Hagrid Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/02/2013
Posts: 221
Loc: Crediton Qld
I always liked this topic but not much happening Atm. Here is a link I found that is easy to navigate.



http://www.tesis.lebedev.ru/en/sun_flares.html?m=4&d=7&y=2016

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#1375539 - 12/05/2016 06:22 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
Hagrid Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/02/2013
Posts: 221
Loc: Crediton Qld

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#1378661 - 07/06/2016 18:18 Re: Solar Watch - Spaceweather 2011 - 2013 [Re: SunnyDays]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4360
Loc: Brisbane
A significant indicator that we are now well on the road to next solar minimum. The face of the sun has been spotless for the last 4 days. This is the first time since solar maximum that this has occurred.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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