Well a return of inland moisture has been on the cards model wise for some time. After the current cool spell and associate push of dry air into the country things should warm and gradually moisten in the new week. Might even be the odd inland rumble by mid week / Thursday.

As of right now and for several runs we have agreement btw all models of a significant rain event making its way across the state from Friday through to Sunday.

Will be interesting to speculate and see if enough moisture builds to allow it to come off.

Discuss!

Monsoon beginning to drop so I think that this should help moisture increase a little bit more as well.

Yeah Gabby, any northerly into Vic should be moist for the rest of the summer almost given the flooding up there last week.

AccG is hinting this for the event at this early stage...

/me rubs hands. With any luck we will have a really good photogenic storm season.

Wish I could work out how to copy and paste those models, tried for an hour and gave up.
Looks like Southern Oracle's prediction for Friday might be spot on. Tried to quote that too and couldn't get it to work either.

What was his prediction?

Just had a look at the storm potential and instability charts, looks kinda interesting for the afternoon of next Saturday... could be an environment suitable for potentially severe thunderstorms, so something to keep an eye on

AccG and GFS are still calling "game on" for next weekend....



Remnants of a cold air pool slipping up NE'wards into a complex mixture of moist air, some from the West and possibly most of it due to the moist area comming onshore over central Qld in the next day or two, then steered down to us with the help of the high in the Tasman midweek and a trough over SA/Vic to hoover it up.


TU - what image hosting site are you using?

Still looking pretty good on all WZ models. Only difference atm appears that GFS and CMC might be slowing the event down a little compared to EC and ACC. Still some very healthy totals possible about the state. Hopefully pin it down a bit better as time approaches. Some very chunky moisture well to our north atm...

Heres the slow GFS potential outcome:



There will be a lot of chopping and changing in the next few days I reckon.

GFS kind of on its own with a more northerly placement of the low on the 12Z run. CMC has brought it more southerly with big totals across a large portion of the state. EC still has a very wet Saturday morning instore for sth central parts. Friday PM best bet at this stage for a rumble not embedded in rain (unless it slows down and Saturday starts partly cloudy).
As an aside trough from the low when its still over in WA does dig in diagonally across VIC on Wednesday and might trigger the odd shower or torm about the state although moisture maybe a prob on this day.

This arvos runs show GFS continuing to go it alone and wrap the moisture heading into Qld into an ECL send it all as a snotball off to NZ with an aloha circa Sydney.

CMC thinks the moisture will still arrive.....


For my 2 bobs, its the usual... "where there's smoke there's fire"..... I note both KL and AV from other forums are increasingly confident that this system and the one to follow may collectively be very wet. I think that these guys are now including the postive La Nina (ENSO) and Indian ocean moisture build up's (IOD) as the perfect setup to provide similar (not beat early 2011 - but still very significant) rain for Vic this Summer.


I'll be watching closely but cant comment because I'm a dummy when it comes to interpreting what may come outside the 8-10 day guidance provided by AccG and GFS!

Latest EC run has reduced rain at Maffra to a total of less than 13mm right throught o next Wednesday. Mixed signals here for moi!

Its definitely slowing down on the latest model runs, even looking a bit more thundery through Saturday. Heaviest rains atm might be in north central areas.

Still, looking at satellite, my gut still says build an ark..

OK where did all the rain go? What a change in models since this afternoon.

Im a new member of Forum Weatherzone, have been an avid reader for a long time and find all topics on weather very interesting. For what its worth im going for a big rain on Sunday in our region of the Wimmera in Victoria - we dont really need it at this time of the year as harvest is well underway. All we can hope for is not too much in the way of rainfall and that after the wind blows to dry the crops out. We certainly dont want a repeat of last season.

Rain should have cleared the west by Sunday, but you might get a bit Friday/Saturday. Still hard to pick at this stage tho, models will hopefully settle down over the next few days and give us a better idea. Hoping for some nice photogenic storms Saturday, but I have a feeling it's going to be another boring embedded La Nina type setup.

EC still has a rainy Saturday through central parts and then moves to the East Sunday. CMC and ACC have storms Saturday and then South Central areas getting a very wet Sunday. GFS its not sure what it wants, ha ha. Anyway, its a fun one to watch developing.

Hello Stormlover! It's always nice to get new Victorian members so we get a good spread of input and observations.
Rainfall for up here for this coming event has been downgraded from 10-20mm, to 1-5mm, so things not looking promising at all.

Welcome Stormlover - great to have reports from the Wimmera, so thanks for joining in

A glimpse of the models this morning shows them all puddling around the same theme, inland moisture entering Vic in an easterly dip fashion, the coldish air in the bight to arrive, and where will the added moisture starting to enter S QLD and N NSW end up?? Will we have an ECL from on NSW coast and have it crab S to Vic (or will it peel off to NZ taking all the wetness with it aka GFS) or will it all add to the moist pool over Vic to allow a cut-off low form over Vic?

Interesting wet weekend is still possible - how it turns out will then affect what happens later into next week with the following system.

Im not overly excited about this system as yet but I will have a better look tomorrow. I was hoping for a dry Saturday but thats not looking likely. ASWA Vic BBQ is on and I have a photo shoot straight after that. Good to see some new names posting and welcome back Meso. Looking forward to seeing your reports on here.

I can't copy and paste any of them either.

From what I have been looking at it would seem Sunday is the wettest day for us in the Central district. The BOM forecast explorer is still saying Sat of 20 ml +.

Well - all I can prognse is more of the same possibilities.

A look at the current setup provides promise for any scenario you want...


GFS brings the rain back into this weekend - but no model is predicting armageddon atm...



[edit] - I note that EC has upped my rain progs for this weekend from 11mm to > 20mm (all of it on Sunday).

The storms (if they do ocur) - wil add spice to all of this!

Well it certainly looks a trough stormy type of scenario for Friday and increasingly Saturday, kind of sloppy by then with any storms being kind of dumpers. GFS and EC similar tonight with good rain developing over central parts , particularly sth central parts Sat night into Sunday.

Looks like not drying out to much and a few systems to follow, one of thm is going to grab this moisture in an organised fashion and then wow..

12Z run not showing much change although EC sends heaviest precip on Sunday towards Petros and a bit toward the Wimmera, greatly reducing totals in sth central areas.

Could be some storms out in the far west by tomorrow pm and still a remote chance on the hills today across the state (Ukmet seems to think so).

Moisture to our north appears to be slowly drifting eastwards and maybe we will be just downstream of it, humid etc. but not able to draw it down directly?

EC has upped Maffra rain to 30mm mostly on Sunday as Ruckle progged.

More follow up rain for this amazing year here.

And for me....the chance of a storm or two ahead of it. - Local BOM forecast for Maffra...

Thursday 8 DecemberMostly sunny morning. The chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the ranges during the afternoon.

Friday 9 DecemberPartly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon.

Saturday 10 DecemberPartly cloudy. Isolated showers. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

Gee the cold air up the east coast is really making this easterly flow pretty dry compared to usual. Its not helping this events chances!

Ruckle, what are my chances of going snapper fishing off Carrum on Saturday afternoon (as a %)?

EC has reduced rain for Maffra from 30 back to 22mm and bringing it back to Sat/Sun.

Local BOM forecast still lets us have the chance of storms here THurs/Sun so thats good.

Sunny day here which allowed us to record a period of 26.8C before the seabreeze arrived. Chunky Cj along the ranges looked promising till the seabreeze put that all out as well.

In terms of rainfall, this system has tapered off by all models I look at. I believe its because the event forming up a Coolangatta looks set to drag all the potential NE'ly inflow off to NZ.

Rainwise, if you want some this is the most interesting model outcome available imo...

Yikes, pressure! I know how important fishing is to those with the passion! Stormy afternoon does look a reasonable bet, hoping storms hold off long enough to let me chow a few snags at the ASWA BBQ then head either west or NW of the city which are right at this moment looking pretty good as well a eastern ranges as always.

This thread will probably need to go to Monday as there is a reasonable chance of rain particularly in the far east into Monday.

Still pretty dry out there...

EC has re increased my rain on this run, similar to GFS posted by Petros, up to 30mm for the event atm, most in a few runs..most falling Sat afternoon and then a Sunday rain.

I still have no idea what to expect in the next few days, models all still seem to be differing with rainfall totals amounts, destination and day? Tonight the TWC model which I know nothing about has quiet substantial rains to come for vic on Sunday, The access more for Mon, GFS for Sun.
Fergus is forecasting rather loudly tonight, it's been two weeks since I have heard boo from him. So even if his forecasts havent been so crash hot for here, usually somewhere in the state cops it.

Looks like a humid, stormy few days coming up for much of Victoria between tomorrow and Monday... I'm getting a craving for a burst of heavy, soaking summer rainfall, with a few rounds of lightning thrown in!

Just wondering whether there might be too much cloudcover around on Friday and Saturday prior to the rain areas and imbedded storms expected on Sunday into Monday, for three reasons (A) limiting surface heating to get convection going, and also reduce the 'fuel' for intensifying storms (B) make thunderstorms potentially unphotogenic (C) possibly spoil the lunar eclipse expected on Saturday night.

Just have to wait and see I guess, maybe a thunderstorm or two will pop up about the eastern highlands of Victoria's Central region (east/northeast of Melbourne) tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon/evening?

Im still going with rain on Sunday here in the Wimmera. Today there were spider webs floating around everywhere - always a sign that rain is not far away. Guess we will see what happens - hopefully not much which will let us continue with our harvest.

Thanks Ruckle! Looks more unlikely than likely that we will venture out.

Yesterday was a brilliant day to observe weather. Great sunrise, nice warm temps and some really solid structure in the mids, which were screaming "Welcome To La Nina v 2.0".

A very good chance of storms around the ranges, perhaps rolling off and into the Kinglake/Noojee areas.

Have given up looking at the models with confidence as they continue to misread events with that transcend from the N and are high in DP's. The last 4 events have produced (on average) 200% more rain than both what EC & GFS have suggested.

Well after a few quiet showers and storms around eastern ranges yesterday, looks like more of the same today, might be a bit better as moisture levels should hopefully increase some more today (it has crept up overnight). As Bulos said, models continue a fickle dance. This morning its CMC's turn for the fun scenario. Quite the wild wet and windy Sunday in central parts if that model was to be believed. GFS has wound back is bumper effort from last night. EC has held around 25mm at home for the event and moved the bulk to Saturday night. Seems to suggest a band forming out of the scattered Saturday pm storm activity.

In any event, assuming moisture levels continue creeping up, a nice trough on Saturday suggest at the very least scattered storm chances, as always during that phase of an event some will miss out.

On the BOM radar what are those things where there are just random red spots? Anyone know why that happens?

Although I'm always interested in the possibility of storms, this particular weekend I would rather it was clear so we can see the Lunar eclipse at midnight on Saturday.

Storms or not, I dont like your chances Redfergie. Should be some cloud about but you never know, might be between showers etc. Still pretty dry, Melbourne sounding shows it pretty dry most of the way up and SW winds in the mid levels etc., little bit ridgey perhaps? Btw the two lows?
Will be keenly checking conditions tomorrow morning. Still coolish above us so temps wont rocket to far past 30, should be enough for another good shallow cu field like yesterday.

Cells going up along the ranges and already dropping lightning.

Okay...either I am imagining things but on the radar I am viewing 128 km, there is scattered activity out west heading down south in patches. Some near Avoca, Clunes, Ballan and Mt Mercer looks interesting, not sure if any of it will make its way to the central areas.

However.....the BOM forecast is saying "mostly clear" and the severe thunderstorm warning is for west and south Gippsland ????? am I just seeing things ???

You are not imagining things, however, storms to the west are not severe so no warning. They are some nice storms forming along the suface trough reaching into VIC from the low way back near SA WA border. Have an inkling they will weaken as sun weakens as they probably dont have much upper support. Storms over the high country are slow moving, over much better moisture and therefore there is STW for flooding.

You're not seeing things, Katyer. Storm cells are in the west heading SE. Not too sure how long they will last. You may get a cell or two over you if you are lucky.
Beat me to it Ruckle!!

Well thank goodness for that !! Yes, I am keeping my eye on the Avoca area and Ballan, but I think with the northerly wind it may head off down south and around the bay. Wait and see.

Well Melbourne has a "5%" chance so if there are storms it wouldn't be very good forecasting from the BOM.

You'd be right Katyer, it's either gonna head down the bay or dissapitate as the sun goes down.

A rather impressive sky to the North-West, and West of Sunraysia. Very dark and ominous. And it's very very hot and steamy. Yuk.

I still think BOM downplayed the chances of storms a little.

Ant, they haven't changed a thing on the warnings. This activity we are seeing surely registers a mention. Looks like something just outside of Melton, but still think it will keep heading south east down and across the bay. That will miss my area. I have just gone out and watered the plants (tank water) in the front area, decided to leave the back as the clouds were so dark looking, I was sure we were getting something.

BOM just cancelled their thunderstorm warning for West & South Gippsland.
Obviously, what is going on over nth west / south is invisible.

As Ruckle mentioned, warnings are only issued if storms are severe.

Well the stuff in the western isn't neccesarily severe but still...Then again BOM haven't been wrong for a while, I expect this to dissapitate.
No lightning on the lightning tracker either, this is weird.

It's nothing more than a few pulsy cells, hardly worthy of a STW.

Warnings should be reserved for when things actually get nasty, not for a few strikes and a couple mm's of rain.

hail, diameter of 2 cm or more ($2 coin size); or
wind gusts of 90 km/h or greater; or
flash floods; or
tornadoes, or any combination of these.
From the bom site, that's whats required. STW aren't even issued when lightning frequently flashes as it's a danger with all storms.

I wasn't thinking it was necessarily severe, but I did think that looking at the radar there were areas with some heavy falls and I thought some thunderstorm activity.
However, I understand from what some of you have said that although it looked somewhat interesting on the radar, in actual fact it wasn't that intense at all. Thanks for the info.

Having said that, its all pretty much dissipated now anyway.

Thanks Ant. I see I still have a bit to learn.

Lesson Learnt- Don't doubt the BOM.

Never !!

Pretty sky on the walk home from the local Thai place, left overs of storms and showers are sometimes more photogenic than a big storm , particularly at sunset. Didnt take the camera to dinner so youll have to take my word for it. Nice little southerly boundary pushed out of this line. Very pleasant blowing through the house atm.

Interesting to see ACC, GFS and CMC ramp up totals for sth central parts and east into Sunday but EC at least here at my place taken a big downgrade.

Yeah Ruckle, a merry dance of ramping up and down by the models this week - heres AccR's latest (which shold be the most accurate for Vic atm)...


Lovely day here, Cj really chunked up in the LV mid arvo and on the N ranges only to mass suicide at precisely 6pm.

Maybe tomorrow. 29C max here today, humidity at 33% atm.

Bl**dy hell Petros, haven't looked at models tonight. Access looking completly different since lunchtime and wasn't expecting much at all. See that red stuff, that is on top of us. We just finished harvest this afternoon so it can rain until the cows come home, but cannot say that for the rest of the district who have all been putting in allnighters, which we did last night and the night before.
Maybe Fergus is on the money! Looks like I better put the lights on outside and see if I can catch him a special moth or two.
Lots of nice cumulus building (wished I had my camera) in the East of north east at 5.00pm when I drove the rugrats into netball training and the sun had a real bite to it,very warm.

Petros, I just checked BOM forecast explorer and it has downgraded possible totals for the central area now for Sat and Sun, from what they had this morning. Not sure how it equates to this model, but from my understanding of the colours, it looks a similar amount for us.

EC increased for here at home. Think Ill just wait and see if a decent storm forms out of the cloud before tomorrow nights rain chance.

Strange to see the rain band near the SA border just sitting there or is this a radar anomaly meaning that we're just not "seeing" rain in western Victoria?

So far all the rain has been sliding SE past VIC, on the eastern flank of the low. Not helped by the high in the Tasman blocking the low and trough from moving very quickly eastwards... Run a loop of the SA/VIC radar for the last 12 hrs you will see what I mean...

It is 30.8C, 1010 Baro & 66% hygro. The skies are mixed with clear anad haze cloud anad below there is the odd small cumulus. The wind is ENEasterely and gusty at times.
Noticed on wz the convective outlook has forecast possibly severe thunderstorms over all of the state. Haven't read anywhere, where the most likely areas will be, so I am presuming that it is up for grabs for all.

radar shows some action in the ranges NW of Pakenham - probably will increase as the afternoon heats up :-)

Some very nice crisp cu over the city atm...hmmmmmmmmmm

holy rapid development...

Yes I have been watching this from Hallam and going by the radar my house would have copped it. Slowly creeping this way towards work here at Hallam

From nothing to red cells over Winchelsea in 15 minutes

I've been watching the development over the Pakenham area for the last 30 mins...looks great! Shame I'm not under it, and wont be. You'll have to go out for a pretend smoko, Loo and enjoy the show!

33.9C/7C 19% currently.

And all choosing different directions to go in.

30C here atm and lots of high colud to the N and NW. Almost directly under a devoloping storm cloud and lots going up to the E, N/E. Hoping for storms...

Check out Frankston! They're getting absolutely smashed.

Mornington about to get hammered. Gee I wish I had a view other than striaght up...

Just clipped me in Frankston North.. I was watching it while driving down Eastlink from Knox, I'd seen it at our factory, and ignored the building storm as it was out near Emerald, and to me "The wrong way"

Just getting a report from McCrae of a wall cloud and forming funnel

Wow, where did all that come from ?? I was driving home and they were talking on the radio about storm warnings and apparent heavy rain. I was in Essendon so all I could see were clouds and as I was driving home looking towards the east it looked mean.

Looking at the radar now, I wonder how much rain was generated, especially around Mornington at the moment. radar is dark red in patches.
Looks like most of it heading south and not spreading further central at this stage.

Wonder what tonight and tomorrow will bring storm and rain fall wise ?
I have given up on the changing models that I am checking.

cool change can be seen on radar coming off the bay and heading NW. Can also be seen on doppler

Yes Tommy, wind changed direction fairly quickly it seemed, Geelong is 26, but I think we are still sitting on 30, maybe 29, can't feel any difference as yet with the wind, still N/W around here.

Had three storms come through thus far... looks like another storm or two about to arrive, 14.8mm of rain so far, managed to capture a bit of lightning on camera, plus plenty of convection, pileus, even a few lowerings, really enjoying today's severe weather action!

Pretty much constant thunder out here at Pakenham for the last couple of hours.

Out this way, nothing but a lovely sunny day, anything slightly threatening skywards was well to our NWW probably Trafalgar/Drouinish.

Storms that peeled off the ranges seemed to want to travel in a SW direction which is a bit unusual in my experience. Pity one didnt form circa Dargo

30.4C and the cicada's have finally emerged in 25% full voice.

Tomorrow will be interesting stormwise for me, playing golf in the Christmas mixed with the MIL - hopefully can keep the storms above us!

Looks like a wet Saturday night for us here 10 - 20 mm on offer via the "model shop".

[edit] - cooling sown rapidly here (from 30.4C), calm clear overhead and blue horizon over the N ranges but no lightning glimmers up that way evident from here.

All obs currenly overshaddowed by a fantastic full moon so bright that its hard to see much at all up due N of us!

My edit time timed out while typing this. WHY CANT WZ ALLOW A LONGER EDIT PERIOD LIKE AVAILABLE ON OTHER SIMILAE AUSTRALIAN WEATHER FORUMS!!??

EC and GFS still have reasonable wet focus points over Melbourne CBD tomorrow PM and evening. Still hopeful of 10-15mm here at home btw now and say Monday morning. More if we get lucky with a storm direct hit of course.

High chances of storms in CBD tommorow you reckon?

Maybe, who knows ? I am having enough trouble keeping up with the forecast explorer for Sat & Sun, totals have changed slightly each time I look.

Isolated storms forming along the trough tomorrow afternoon, before flattening out in to rain areas at night is my prediction. Potentially severe if everything comes together at the right time. Will definitely be an increase in activity compared to the last couple of days. Whether it's going to really memorable or just some run of the mill storms is 50/50. Liking the look of the sat loop atm though, hopefully see some clearish air out west in the morning to give things a chance to bubble up.

Very slow moving cells forming in southern NSW and heading south for the border round my way. CC lightning and very spasmodic thunder about 15km either side of Mulwala/Yarrawonga. DP 13.2 and rising RH 67%. Most storms are dissipating as they approach Victoria

Interesting day today, anyone managing a reasonable period of sun could be in for some fun. Watch for any clearing on vis satellite and keep in mind trough position via wind directions etc.

Edit: 20/15 at home atm.

Also does anyone know what happened to the WV satellite image on this site? I cannot find it..

This is starting to look a little similair to the Saturday where all the rain came from the NE.

For WV link, Ruckle. Open radar and lightning page, Australia. Go to "related links" underneath. Click on satellite. Then click on word satellite and click in water vapor.
No more storms here and hardly any rain, just miserable drizzle every now and again.

Maybe enough to moisten things for round 2 later Gabby. Sun is trying to burn through a thin high cloud over this area. Will be an interesting arvo of golf.

Thanks Gabby, only seeing visible and infrared as an option, must be losing it....

25/14 at home, interesting sky with high cloud from Gabbys precip to NE and some lumpy cu around elsewhere

Our sky is clearing now with some sun starting to peep through. Not too sure what this means for later on.

So is it going to be more like yesterday where the storms develop out of no where?

Now I'm no expert here, but just been sipping on a coffee and watching some whispy cloud barrelling in from the north. It's spread in bits and pieces, but 'swirling', building then dissipating, then building again.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I reckon this is a prelude to to storms just appearing from 'nowhere' this arvo. It looks rather turbulent up there, even though the cloud is sparce at the moment.
Feels humid here - sunny generally - could get interesting later.

Well if you check the radar you can see it is starting to get a little interesting.

hey TheAnt, I'll certainly be keeping an eye on it
Can feel something/storms brewing in 'me' bones....or is that 'waters'?
More coffee breaks to come I reckon - especially later

Hmm...if that cell goes directly through Laverton it's likely to atleast clip me. Also these storms appear to me a lot more oranganized then yesterday.

Just turning into a long line now. Anyone know why there's hardly any crosses on the WZ radar? Surely that orangey red stuff north of Melbourne.

Certainly seems to be more scattered and building in parts.
I have been watching what is coming down from Daylesford on the 64km radar.
Sometimes that moves across Melton toward us, but with this Nth wind I am not so sure.
Certainly scattered around so I suppose depends a bit on the wind direction as well.
Looks like Werribee and Avalon are getting something. Heading more south now I think.
The day is still young !

It seems that its more showery behind the line, but the front is certainly the best chance for storms.

I'm leaving it on the 64km radar, and looks like most of this lot has passed us
by and heading south. Very cloudy and windy outside, but I think if we are to
get anything in my neck of the woods it will be what is still heading toward Gisborne,
which does not look as intense to me.

You can see the storm line on the current sattelite image just as it started to deepen.
BTW is there a forcefield around Laverton or something? I'm not complaining because I have to leave soon but geez, that rain has stayed around there for a good hour.

Eerily calm here at the moment.
Feels more humid than it actually is.

Issued at 1:53 pm Saturday, 10 December 2011.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 1:45 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Mt Cottrell.
These thunderstorms are moving towards the southeast.
They are forecast to affect Hoppers Crossing, Laverton and Werribee by 2:15 pm and Altona and waters off Pt Cook by 2:45 pm.
Damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones are likely.

Wind is strong here, nothing else happening.

I reckon the 5-10mm is the rain that's going to come after this line, Katyer wheres Taylors hills closest to on the radar?

I can report heavy wind and rain from Point Cook. Nice shimery lighning too.

Ah cool change. Now that's refreshing.

On radar we are somewhere between Melton and Sunbury.
Hard sometimes to pinpoint exactly, but at the moment it is passing over Sunbury, and we have nothing but clouds. I tend to find that when it is around Ballan it moves toward us. This seems to be heading north east.

STW over almost all of Victoria.

DP 17 Rh 86%, now that's more like it for some storm development and radar looking promising with a line of storms at Cobram moving SSE which is about 40km away. I see an STW has been issued covering most of Victoria except for Melbourne and surrounding suburbs.

Are they thinking the west is gonna fire up shortly or did someone hit the wrong button?

Not too sure but cells are firing up a little there.

Meso7..........they must have hit the red button instead of the green
All quiet on the Wantirna front at the moment...cloudy, light breeze...muggy.
Though there are some interesting hot spots in some parts of Vic.
Patiently waiting......

Pretty sure the storm south west of Sunbury has a fair amount of hail attached at the moment. Seen strong all white downdrafts.

Rain free base just becoming a bit fuzzy so might weaken shortly. These storms today seem to have about 10 minutes in them.

I don't know Ruckle they have a bit of energy in them.

Just had some rain go through here, heavy for a few seconds.
Never get rain on my windows facing north but it hit against those, now seems
to have stopped. No thunder as yet, looking at the radar it might be just
missing us, heading south west again, look out Werribee etc..

Its the storm now blue on radar, just through the airport, so it did cark it. In Williamstown now, hoping fish and chips can come up in time for a feed and view across the bay. (for those at the ASWA BBQ - yes it is bad to have snags and fish and chips in one day - but what are you going to do..)

Tbh I think that with the wind change and the actual cool change the storms will go, it's what happened yesterday (along with the fact the sun was no longer heating it)

27 degrees and our humidity just jumped 17% in about 10 minutes, to 55%. Not like the humidiy bit a all.

URL=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/593/dec102011047.jpg/][/URL]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
YAHOO -In a mad dash flew back from Shep shopping, Jumped in the ute and flew down the back paddock to grab a few shots, would have been better if I had arrived home 5 mins earlier to get myself organised. Ended up as wet as a shaggy dog shutting gates on the way back to the house.
It is still lightly raining and lots of rumbling, now I wish it was dark so I could get the full affect.

[URL=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/215/dec102011047.jpg/][IMG]http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/5576/dec102011047.jpg[/IMG

Oh nice! I pondered going for a drive over there but didn't. Damn it, should have!

Fantastic pics !!

Hope more building thunderstorms up in the West as i feel the humid air is not gone yet.....

Love that 2nd shot especially TU - how much did you get in the gauge?

Just a calm, humid and overcast day here, 28C so a degree cooler than yest. Nothing threatening sky wards all day.

Hopefully will get a light show at Valencia Creek tonight at a show we are going to.

I am really not sure with this. Watching Ballan and Bacchus Marsh area at the moment. BOM has changed its mind with the possible totals on the forecast explorer for my areas and surrounds.
However, they seem to have increased totals for next week on one of the weather maps I checked about 5 mins ago.

BOM should've just kept the STW for Melb in case the one in Melton becomes severe.

We have it bucketing down now here. No thunder, but rain pelting down.
Wind has eased, nothing on the windows just straight down and heavy!

On a lighter note, at least I have finally pinpointed where we are on the map with relation to the radar. Its only taken me a year to work it out LOL!

Haha don't worry it took me a while to figure out that rain just a tad east of caulfield was still at our house.

Big crack of thunder at home and pouring!

Great Pic's there thunderunder. Not so bad getting wet this time of year though. Winter's a bummer. Thunder outside somewhere again, and still very humid. No rain yet, it keeps going around us, here at Red Cliffs.

having some light rain ATM with the odd rumble of thunder

Looks like we may get something out of this one from the South-West. Not often they come that way, without a downpour.

Yep, well, there is nothing now, moved through very quickly and is probably down your way by now ???
Still got my eye on on Clunes and Ballan but doesn't look to be much.

Petros we have 34mm since 5.00am this morning, I think we roughly would have got about 28mm with that storm.
The drops of rain were big, aeven the dog pannicked and I had to let her in the cab, that was the start to the end of becoming absolutely drenched.


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Well 3 cracks of thunder and some close flashes have brought rain that will kick start my December rain total pretty well.

Here is a report of todays fun.

Left ASWA BBQ and headed west, was near home and decided that since storms were slow we would have a few goes today. Was a decent cell west of Laverton and as hysterically reported earlier we made it to Pt Cook in time for some heavy rain and squally winds, was certainly a bit of fun!

At this time there was a rather cruddy rain area around Macedon to Sunbury teasing the outer western and NW burbs. I think Katyer referred to this a few pages back. We had intended to head to around Melton and wait but as we approached the western freeway we could see a cloud bank powering up to the NW of this. Hedging our bets we headed west and continued to watch it grow. Figuring we didnt have that long before it might die we decided to make a play for it, went as far as Bacchus and then got onto the Bacchus Gisborne Rd. At this point it started to show a reasonable return on the radar.

Some snaps as we approached, right from inception it did have a lowering feature on it. As usual if you'd like you can click and make em bigger





A little further along the road the main cell peaked and a new one began forming right next to it (which was a pretty typical event today)



As the storm got to the Gisborne Macedon area it weakened to a weak shower. We sat at the top of the hill south of Gisbore and watched showers dance around Mt Macedon. Once south of Gisborne the complex regained strength and spotting a new RFB we headed off down the Calder. It was quite small in area but briefly looked a little nasty and as I posted a few pages back appeared to be dropping some hail. Here is a snap of it at this time





It then fizzled out near the airport.

We bolted around the ring road to Williamstown and grabbed some food, headed to the Esplanade beach side and watched CC lightning over the bay. A big southerly push came out of this complex, producing a reasonable guster.



Then home to what turned out to be a pretty good deluge with some good thunder.

lol Thunderunder...love the look on your dog's face...."Thee shalt not be a loyal companion if you do not let me in that cabin of the ute NOW!"

Thunderunder, had to make sure my lil buddy peppie was here. Your lil dog is his image, a few years back, he has a little more grey in the face now. Uncanny

Ruckle, great run down on the days events for you.

Love your dog.

11.5mm here at home, bloody brilliant, nice lake in the street and given I hoped for 10-15mm a day or so ago I guess I am there..

Still watching with interest activity around Blackwood but more Ballan.
I can't work out if it is building and heading toward Bacchus Marsh or Melton,
or whether it will move toward us and central areas.

I have every window in the house open with this lovely cool breeze getting rid of the
humidity, so I better keep an eye on things if the rain heads this way, I will be making
a dash to close them all again.

The storms actually went just north, I think I heard a few rumbles but thats about it. There seems to be a few more cells but most seem to be losing strength.

Blackacubra, she's not exactly little she is bigger then a labrador, a Tasmanian Smithfield (sheep working dog). Back o topic, are you copping it up there in sunrasia, cause it certainly looks like it on the radar.

Some very light rain atm, just exploded down the west side of bay again, there are boundaries everywhere from these showers and storms so for the next little while random things can keep popping up like that has.

Ruckle, what's your opinion on the activity around Maryborough ? Does that look like its growing and heading north east or following down the same track as what is near Macedon now ?

I'm no expert Katyer but storms really won't be able to last that long at night, anyway starting to rain again here.

radar has it moving SE. Another cell popped up near Cressy.

That's what I was thinking, but what do I just hear ???? a distinct rumble ....hmmm.

Odd, I see nothing really thunderish between Melton and Sunbury. BTW are we any chance of viewing the eclipse?

Yes I saw a big flash up to the NW, must have been Katyer's rumble after that. Cell near Maryborough looks to be right moving.

Interesting isn't it this radar. We just got another rumble and I also thought one quick flash of lightning prior to it. The rain is not really heavy but it is constant.
We have a security camera set up for the house and I am looking at the front and the road, looks very wet on the pavement. Just had another flash of lightning....wait for the rumble...

He maybe a Silky Foxy cross, and little compared to her, but they are so alike in the face. Took the photo of your girl into my old mother, and she even thought it was him, and asked when I'd taken the photo. We didn't get to much rain here, mostly went around us. I've taken some photo's of the retreating storm, as the sun's going down. Mother nature at her best. Hopefully the pics look as good as what I saw. Maybe some lightning as well, in the shots. I'm crossing everything.

radar looks weird, little specks from the west all over the place, are they cells just popping up, wonder how much ooomph they have ?
Don't think the Maryborough activity is headed to us, more Lancefield / Sunbury.
Doesn't look like much on radar over us but it is constant and steady.
Wind has changed direction but very light.

radar is stuffed for me, saying it's light where as its quite heavy.

Where exactly ?
I am watching this building near Daylesford...

Had a period of pretty heavy rain about 20 minutes ago. Absolute ripper of a little cell just south of Daylesford. Coverage of rain and storms over central parts, particularly nth central has really increased over the last hour. Will end up pretty wet out east when this moves across.

Great pics and report Ruckle. And to everyone who has posted thanks for contributing throughout the day.

Well we had our ASWA BBQ today and all eyes were on the skies and the iphones (radar)as there were storms popping up to the west of the city and also to the n/w. So after having the quickest BBQ in history we all went our separate ways. Most people were talking west but I wanted to stay in clear air so I headed Nth. On the way up the Hume I could see massive cells in the distance up around the border. (Albury way)
After filling up with gas at one of the Hume BP servos I checked the radar and it showed some activity heading towards Seymour so I picked that area to get to and sit it out and see what would happen. Just out of Seymour on the road to the Army Base I parked on the side of the road and waited to see what would happen. Timed it to perfection as within 5 minutes the cell started to get going. It built looked brilliant,with some awesome lowerings, dropped a few CG's and started to die. All this in about 15 mins.
Here's some pics and I will try and get some video footage up tomorrow.

Great pics, especially the last one.

Caulfield. Anyway quite strange how the Daylesford cell is moving NW to SE buy all the rest of the activity is going SW to NE.

Brilliant stuff Lindsay, funnily enough we debated Seymour as we left ASWA but as you read headed west.

Been out front watching flashes up to the NW every now and then. Another great days weather.

More cells popping from Bacchus to Melton to Sunbury..