#1039335 - 7/12/2011 09:27
Re: NSW Broad Low Pressure Trough - Storms/Rain : 8 - 13 dec 2011
[Re: DaveM]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 23/06/2011
Loc: Yetholme [1180m] Central Table...
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You can extend the time of this thread by another 2 days to the 13th, as some of the best rain might not fall until that trough/weak cold front passes next Tuesday. At this stage I think Monday may be the wettest for the CT’s as the trough lines up with a front passing to the south.
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#1039345 - 7/12/2011 09:37
Re: NSW Broad Low Pressure Trough - Storms/Rain : 8 - 13 dec 2011
[Re: PeterDuke]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 8/10/2007
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GFS has really ramped things up this morning with 200mm+ pegged in for the CTs.. should be a dam-filler for warragamba if it comes off. Almost the entire NE quarter of the state including the northern inland has falls just as big, even half of that would be pretty significant for the inland areas.
Haven't seen these kind of totals progged for Dec in a while.
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#1039406 - 7/12/2011 12:31
Re: NSW Broad Low Pressure Trough - Storms/Rain : 8 - 13 dec 2011
[Re: Simmah]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 31/08/2004
Loc: Ellalong.10kms SW of Cessnock ...
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Looks like light rain should start here any time now by the radar,but it dos'nt look to dark looking up they way looking from here,plenty coming down from up north,looks to be heavy up around the Barrington Tops.
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#1039450 - 7/12/2011 14:25
Re: NSW Broad Low Pressure Trough - Storms/Rain : 8 - 13 dec 2011
[Re: Storm Hunter]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 8/10/2007
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Interesting to note GFS 18z, even though less reliable than the other runs, looks almost identical to GFS 12z for all areas south of about the MNC.. pretty much the same pattern of totals for illwarra/syd/hunter and also the central inland parts. That level of consistency would be fairly rare for a forecast heavy rain/flood system. If 00z this arvo looks similar then we'll definitely be on for this system, and no reason for it not to be.. many factors in our favour including very high SST anomalies, MJO signal, high soi, solid upper systems etc etc. In fact speaking of soi, 30 day reading has shot to +15.44.
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#1039533 - 7/12/2011 16:59
Re: NSW Broad Low Pressure Trough - Storms/Rain : 8 - 13 dec 2011
[Re: Flood]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 10/07/2006
Loc: Double Bay, Sydney, NSW
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00Z has backed off on those totals thankfully. The general consensus in the models is not yet indicating that this event will be anything to write home about.
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#1039539 - 7/12/2011 17:09
Re: NSW Broad Low Pressure Trough - Storms/Rain : 8 - 13 dec 2011
[Re: CoastalStorm22]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 8/10/2007
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Long line of heavy rain about to hit the coast and it's only just getting started, time to ignore the 00z run me thinks which is clearly undercooking the totals. Still more inclined towards 12z and 18z runs, 2 against 1
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#1039546 - 7/12/2011 17:17
Re: NSW Broad Low Pressure Trough - Storms/Rain : 8 - 13 dec 2011
[Re: CoastalStorm22]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 20/11/2010
Loc: Southern Sydney
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00Z has backed off on rain next week, however 00Z looks almost exactly the same as the 18Z run over the next 4 days (96 hours) Still going for 75-100mm's across Sydney, the Illawarra and Hunter with that bullseye in the Blue Mountains, will be interesting to see what the other models say tonight Thick drizzle here for the last 30 minutes or so, total of 1mm so far
Edited by Updrafts (7/12/2011 17:19)
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#1039552 - 7/12/2011 17:27
Re: NSW Broad Low Pressure Trough - Storms/Rain : 8 - 13 dec 2011
[Re: Updrafts]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 16/06/2007
Loc: Dural
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00Z has backed off on rain next week, however 00Z looks almost exactly the same as the 18Z run over the next 4 days (96 hours) Still going for 75-100mm's across Sydney, the Illawarra and Hunter with that bullseye in the Blue Mountains, will be interesting to see what the other models say tonight Thick drizzle here for the last 30 minutes or so, total of 1mm so far 00z does look almost identical to 18z. It hardly changed. The 180 hrs outlook has up to 275 mm's just to the north of Sydney, with more than that in the Barrington's. We are certainly in for something reasonable. I've been suffering the same drizzle for the past hour. I like the look of that juicy stuff just off the coast atm. Only 16.4 deg's here at present. Geez I love this. Homer
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#1039555 - 7/12/2011 17:31
Re: NSW Broad Low Pressure Trough - Storms/Rain : 8 - 13 dec 2011
[Re: Homer]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 8/10/2007
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'Showers' pretty much seems to be the word of Sydneys latest forecast for the next 6-7 days. Highest max will be 24c (downgrade from the previous 26c), but with cloud cover and rain you can easily take off another 3-5C anyway so on track to an even better start to summer than Dec 1960 believe it or not!
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#1039564 - 7/12/2011 17:51
Re: NSW Broad Low Pressure Trough - Storms/Rain : 8 - 13 dec 2011
[Re: Flood]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 16/06/2007
Loc: Dural
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'Showers' pretty much seems to be the word of Sydneys latest forecast for the next 6-7 days. Highest max will be 24c (downgrade from the previous 26c), but with cloud cover and rain you can easily take off another 3-5C anyway so on track to an even better start to summer than Dec 1960 believe it or not! Yeh, didn't that one have 13 days below 23 to start December? That would be quite a feat!! Homer
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#1039822 - 8/12/2011 08:12
Re: NSW Broad Low Pressure Trough - Storms/Rain : 8 - 13 dec 2011
[Re: Homer]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 26/11/2001
Loc: Bathurst NSW Australia - Alt 6...
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Just listening to air traffic in CW area Orange, two aircraft have tried to land in Orange ,unsuccessful, had to divert to parkes, the other to Bathurst. We have had 8 mm rain over night. Quite foggy , can see why hey had trouble, was due to do a Navigation flight myself to Orange and Cowra today, that has been cancelled.
Dont forget to log into Radio scanner stream, Link below, quite busy with all this rain, also police have patched in areas of Dubbo, mudgee and further west.
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