new thread for the first cyclone of the season.

she should enter australian waters within the next 24hours.

Not a bad prediction on the 25th November Mick

Bloody weather stealin sandgropers - Lol.

Good luck guys. How it comes in close enough for some real action.

Yeah I am with you all there not really much to worry about that one at all in it's track but it's been fun keeping a watch on it's any way.

I know it is not Alenga so mods feel free to delete but that other low at 70E 19S must have come close to be a cyclone as well.

It has but will quickly die due to the mid to upper level ridging that will also kill Alenga (should this be in the Cyclone Lounge mods)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0212.gif

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0212web.txt

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/indo/main.html

Absolutely Boomer. Just look at that dry air to it's south with the approaching trough. That and the wind shear will strangle it soon

welcome to australia!!
Alenga's first australian track map -

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

and tech bulletin, forecast as per the models (and expected)

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by Perth TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0710 UTC 07/12/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Alenga
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.3S
Longitude: 89.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [121 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 350 nm [650 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 07/1800: 14.9S 91.6E: 050 [095]: 060 [110]: 983
+24: 08/0600: 16.0S 94.1E: 080 [150]: 065 [120]: 981
+36: 08/1800: 17.3S 96.7E: 110 [210]: 050 [095]: 991
+48: 09/0600: 18.5S 98.7E: 145 [270]: 040 [075]: 996
+60: 09/1800: 19.4S 100.2E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 1001
+72: 10/0600: 20.1S 101.0E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 1001
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Alenga has been located by visible and microwave imagery near
90E.
Intensity of 55 knots based on CI of 4.0 from a wrap of 1.1. The system is
currently in low shear ahead of a trough that will increase shear during
Thursday and Friday. Sea surface temperatures are currently favourable but
become less so as the system approaches 18S. The intensity is expected to be
maintained or slowly increase during the next 12 to 24 hours before the system
weakens, expected to fall below TC intensity as the system gets to 100E later on
Friday.
The motion of the system is expected to continue to be east to southeast over
the next few days under the influence of NW steering due to the mid latitude
trough.

Alenga goes Cat 3 (but not for long)
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

BOM REMARKS:
Vmax is set at 70 knots 10-min.

Recent microwave imagery shows development of the system around a reasonably
well defined eye.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/austwest/movies/gmswv/gmswvjava.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/austwest/movies/gmsirn/gmsirnjava.html


The system has been in a low shear environment and CIMSS shear at 00 UTC was
about 8 knots from the westnorthwest. Shear is forecast to increase in the next
24 to 48 hours as an upper low and trough approach from the west.

NWP guidance is quite consistent with general southeast motion likely over the
next 48 hours due to the upper trough. In the longer term the weakening system
may be steered towards the west southwest by a developing ridge well to the
south. Gales may persist to the south of the system in the tight easterly
pressure gradient.

Alenga is now near its maximum forecast intensity and should begin to weaken
beyond the next 12 hours as the system moves southeast into a high shear
environment with cooler SST's. The mid-level trough has also brought dry air in
close proximity which may also weaken the system if it is entrained into the
core.

WoW. She isn't mucking round then is she It looks like a very tight system:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...01112071830.GIF

Alenga has put in a good effort in the time it had to get up and going. CAT 3 with peaks estimated around 95-115knts. Its good to see what the early season systems can do and may be a sign of the times with future developing systems in the NWest. It certainly surprised me as to its peak intensity and it goes to show how cyclones can surprise us when you least expect it.

Sat image taken from Alenga a few hours ago showing the eye present but now covered with cloud.

Next map update and tech report out soon so we should know what it may have peaked at

Just for the records

So it appears Alenga peaked around 11am WST. From this tech report it is around 968hPa 80-110 knts or 150-205kmhr. Not bad at all really. I wonder if there will be any swell pulses briefly off Cable Beach. MMMMM maybe a tiny swell!!!

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by Perth TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0741 UTC 08/12/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Alenga
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.3S
Longitude: 96.8E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [118 deg]
Speed of Movement: 20 knots [36 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 968 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/3HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 250 nm [465 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 08/1800: 19.1S 99.9E: 045 [085]: 060 [110]: 981
+24: 09/0600: 20.5S 101.9E: 075 [140]: 050 [095]: 986
+36: 09/1800: 21.2S 103.3E: 110 [200]: 045 [085]: 988
+48: 10/0600: 22.1S 104.3E: 140 [260]: 035 [065]: 995
+60: 10/1800: 22.6S 104.7E: 190 [345]: 030 [055]: 997
+72: 11/0600: 23.5S 105.2E: 235 [435]: 030 [055]: 997
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Alenga was located by microwave and visible satellite
imagery over the past 6 hours. Alenga appeared to peak near 0300 UTC with a well
defined eye with DVORAK DT of 5.0. In the last 3 hours the infa-red eye has
dissipated and embedded centre pattern [LG] gives a DVORAK DT of 4.5, consistent
with MET. CI held higher at 5.0. Max winds of 80 knots consistent with SATCON
although ADT has suggest higher intensities.

The WNW shear has increased above 10 knots and is likely to further increase in
the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper low and trough approach from the west.
Consequently Alenga should continue to weaken assisted by cooler SST's and a
possibly dryer airmass.

NWP guidance is quite consistent with general southeast motion likely over the
next 48 hours due to the upper trough. Gales may persist to the south of the
system in the tight easterly pressure gradient with a high pressure system
further south.

It did well to strengthen so rapidly. The west coast may get some rain out of it as a low if keeps this up.

mattys track map would be way cooler and have that thing swerving right and slamming into the coastline at cat5

Alenga is being sheared. The models have been pretty much spot on. Still at 980 early this AM

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by Perth TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1855 UTC 08/12/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Alenga
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 19.6S
Longitude: 100.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [123 deg]
Speed of Movement: 20 knots [38 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 981 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 250 nm [465 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 09/0600: 21.1S 102.6E: 050 [095]: 045 [085]: 989
+24: 09/1800: 21.6S 103.6E: 075 [140]: 035 [065]: 994
+36: 10/0600: 22.2S 104.6E: 110 [200]: 030 [055]: 998
+48: 10/1800: 22.8S 105.2E: 140 [260]: 030 [055]: 997
+60: 11/0600: 23.5S 105.6E: 190 [345]: 030 [055]: 996
+72: 11/1800: 24.1S 105.7E: 235 [435]: 030 [055]: 996
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Alenga was located by microwave and IR satellite imagery over
the past 6 hours. Alenga appeared to peak near 0300 UTC with a well defined eye
with DVORAK DT of 5.0. In the last 6 hours the system has started to appear
sheared, with a shear pattern giving a DVORAK DT of 3.5. Due to a recent
convective blow-up, an embedded centre pattern yields 4.5 [LG]. Pattern adjusted
MET is 3.5 and has been favoured, resulting in FT of 3.5. CI held higher at 4.0
and 10 minute mean wind is set at 60 knots. ADT has begun to fall since peaking
at a CI of 5.7 and is at 3.6 at 1815 UTC.

The WNW shear has increased to 20-30 knots and is likely to further increase in
the next 12 hours as an upper low and trough approach from the west.
Consequently Alenga should continue to weaken, assisted by cooler SST's.

NWP guidance is quite consistent with general southeast motion likely over the
next 24 hours due to the upper trough, then possibly tending more southerly or
southwesterly as the system shears and the low level circulation is steered by
the surface ridge to the south. Gales may persist to the south of the system in
the tight easterly pressure gradient with a high pressure system further south.

Damn that shear from the SW. She was looking mighty fine til that started eating her up

She has gone - oh well I hope it keeps moving towards the coast and you get some rain at least.

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region

IDW10800

UPDATED
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 8:29pm WST on Friday the 9th of December 2011
Valid until midnight WST Monday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil. At 8pm WST Friday, ex-Tropical Cyclone Alenga was located near 21.5S
102.9E, moving southeast at 12 kilometers per hour. The cyclone is not expected
to redevelop, however gales may persist on the southern side for a period on
Saturday.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to
develop over the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region:
Saturday :Low
Sunday :Very Low
Monday :Very Low


NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/