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#1036186 - 29/11/2011 22:20 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: Arnost]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3908
One of the more interesting phase space diagrams is this one from NCEP/NOAA plotting Warm Water Volume and Nino 3.4 anomally:



I have only been looking at it for a year or so - and it really has no traction yet with me. However - it may be a good predicitve tool IF! i.e. If where it is at the moment bears true - then we will likely be in a cool nina environment for up to 6 months... that is before the cycle moves to re-charge mode. So let's see.

[One of the many good plots from here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing.shtml ]
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#1036325 - 30/11/2011 02:10 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: Arnost]
MAFILI Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 24/11/2011
Posts: 19
Loc: São Paulo/Brazil
Arnost, Thanks for the links.
I guess. That the following chart (NIÑO 3.4 x WWV) over time. The design of a chaotic butterfly. Appear



Apparently the ENSO discharge is not sufficient to compensate the global OHC.



2008-3,10.786921
2008-6,10.336898
2008-9,10.391636
2008-12,8.693643
2009-3,10.177031
2009-6,9.101593
2009-9,10.603754
2009-12,10.623687
2010-3,10.459173
2010-6,9.616077
2010-9,9.865697
2010-12,10.360248
2011-3,11.036294
2011-6,10.415225
2011-9,12.357734

ftp://ftp.nodc.noaa.gov/pub/data.nodc/wo...sh_seasonal.csv

Sorry for the bad English ....

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#1036622 - 30/11/2011 16:34 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: MAFILI]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1653
Spring rainfall deciles for Australia 2011...

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...3month&area=nat

Despite the La Nina being a late developer and not as strong as last Year with a weak Positive IOD also contributing through early and mid Spring that is a preety good result


Edited by _Johnno_ (30/11/2011 16:35)
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#1036655 - 30/11/2011 17:43 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: _Johnno_]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1524
Loc: Southern Victoria
MJO had a peak mid last month over Africa at a near record strength .

Since then its been a very quick rotation , including a significant effect ( although not on official measurement scales ) on the maritime continent on its way through .

And now less 30 days after leaving our area of influence , and 40 days after its last peak over Africa , its steaming towards us in the Eastern Indian and really gaining in strength .

Cyclone Anyone . ??
Now the SST's will limit availabilty of longevity , unless a rotation genesis was in the Darwin/Arafura region . With the Possibility of something forming West of <120 E , perhaps helping Western Waters SST's to rise even further and the continent bearing more of the Blow ( Precip / Cloudcover wise ) . With the speed that its coming in at could see little or no negative effect on building SST's and really give that SOI a nudge ( currently 12-13 + [30 day average] ) .

So even though we will not have the Local waters Moisture available , The MJO may deliver Atmospherically without the negative effect on this Still Building Nina .
So another feather in the " Wet Summer Cap " ...



http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.phase.Last90days.gif


Edited by Southern Oracle (30/11/2011 17:45)
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#1036688 - 30/11/2011 18:52 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: S .O.]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3908
Quote:
Sorry for the bad English


Cool - I'm a wog too. Never apologise for that.

So... What made the heat content spike up to a record level in the middle of a Nina. I've only been looking at the Pacific and it certainly ain't there.

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/
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“No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise” ...

And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]

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#1036761 - 30/11/2011 21:42 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: Arnost]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1653
Makes 3 of us Arnost

I think theres a reasonable chance of a cyclone or tropical low worst case scenario forming in the Central to Eastern Indian Ocean the next 7-14 days
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#1036772 - 30/11/2011 22:05 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: Arnost]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1545
Loc: Kingaroy
Could it be a glitch in NOAA's computers?

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#1036792 - 30/11/2011 22:37 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: Chris Stumer]
mobihci Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/05/2009
Posts: 486
Loc: Brisbane
this page shows most of the current graphs-

http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/ocean/

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#1036970 - 01/12/2011 08:45 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: mobihci]
MAFILI Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 24/11/2011
Posts: 19
Loc: São Paulo/Brazil
I hope, not be in the wrong topic.
And honestly, do not be looking for answers in the wrong ocean.


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#1038872 - 05/12/2011 23:34 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: MAFILI]
Bill Illis Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/07/2010
Posts: 1003

Last week, Nino 3.4 dropped to -1.13C, global SSTs fell to 0.019C and the AMO rose slightly to -0.111C.


http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/1716/weeklyenamosstnov3011.png



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#1038919 - 06/12/2011 08:31 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: Bill Illis]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Thanks for that Bill.
Where do you get the global weekly SST temperature from Bill?

I notice lots of cold water(below mean SST temp) in the Brazil nearby water large area iof the Central Atlantic Ocean, leakage via the AMOC pathway northwards may well start to slowly cool the AMO SST's off for some long time ahead it seems!

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#1038957 - 06/12/2011 11:05 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
Bill Illis Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/07/2010
Posts: 1003
Originally Posted By: bd bucketingdown


Where do you get the global weekly SST temperature from Bill?




From here, updated on Mondays North America time.

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite

Click:

- oiv2.ctl OIv2 Weekly SST (1990 onward

- time series

- Next Page

then

- weekly anomaly 1971 to 2000 climatology

- enter latitude and longitude.

- Plot

somtimes it is slow to load up the chart, particularly for the global.

- and then you can "download data file" where the values will be.

Lots of other data in the same kind of format can be obtained here - click on the "plot" option and then it is the same kind of process as above.

http://nomad2.ncep.noaa.gov/ncep_data/index.html




Edited by Bill Illis (06/12/2011 11:05)

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#1038993 - 06/12/2011 13:29 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: Bill Illis]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
OK Thanks Bill
Cheers

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#1039016 - 06/12/2011 14:14 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: Arnost]
Arnost Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3908
Originally Posted By: Arnost

So... What made the heat content spike up to a record level in the middle of a Nina. I've only been looking at the Pacific and it certainly ain't there.

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/


Appears all to be in the 500-600m depth. And mostly in the Atlantic (and not Indian as I suspected - though that has warmed too)

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/OC5/3M_HEAT/showfiganom.pl?navigationM=t_an_20112011_16_07-09_up_77
_________________________
“No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise” ...

And this of course applies to scientific principles. Never compromise these. Never! [Follow the science and you will be shown correct in the end...]

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#1039233 - 06/12/2011 22:58 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: Arnost]
MAFILI Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 24/11/2011
Posts: 19
Loc: São Paulo/Brazil

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#1039291 - 07/12/2011 07:08 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: MAFILI]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
of what?

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#1039399 - 07/12/2011 12:11 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
MAFILI Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 24/11/2011
Posts: 19
Loc: São Paulo/Brazil
La Nina is dead

(very optimistic) three months
(optimistic) four months
(conservative) five months
(extremely conservative) six months

The level of neutrality will be reached sometime between FEB and MAY 2012;

Within the zone of unpredictability.

As is virtually nil the possibility of the development of El Niño (fast) following a La Niña.

If not impossible.

Conclusion: In brief, 25% La Niña, Neutral 50%, 25% El Niño. The classic.

I live in Brazil. The effects of ENSO situation in some regions are beneficial and harmful in others. Thus I have no preference for one or the other.

In time, RSS November/2011 global anomaly for K = 0.033 +

neutral hugs ....

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#1039405 - 07/12/2011 12:27 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: MAFILI]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1545
Loc: Kingaroy
La Nina and El Nino events last from autumn to autumn, and there is no way the heat content would spike in a La Nina unless at the very end of the event, my guess is La Nina will peak in say January or February with a decline to neutral after, there has been lot's of computer data problems with the models lately, that solar flare we had last year or early this year, may have banged up a few satellites.

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#1039457 - 07/12/2011 14:34 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: Chris Stumer]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8315
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
30 day SOI has now shot up to +15.44 and quickly rising.. at this rate last years La nina will be smashed. And right on queue we have a significant flood developing across inland QLD and NSW again.

So much for an El nino pattern aye? wink

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#1039469 - 07/12/2011 14:54 Re: ENSO Discussion 2011 [Re: Long Road Home]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17714
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
This event has no comparison whatsoever to last year's. Last year's event had been running for 4 months already, the easterly flow was much deeper and the oceans were warmer around Australia.

Comparisons are already pointless.
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