What constitutes a CS low?
Even Access agrees this one is set to gain considerable depth while tracking 25E
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml

Not that I'm an expert in tropical weather (or any weather for that matter), but I would think that basically a Coral Sea low would include any warm-cored low (or tropical cyclone) that forms within, or moves into, the Coral Sea?

What you have is an east coast low that will continue to roll into the CS. Cold core. It will rock eastward on the 25S line.
It's cold core... so why are we talking about it here?
No offence... but it has been made quiet clear these discussions should occur elsewhere... as to where that should occur is up to you and other mods.

Sorry boomer, who are you replying to? I did not mention the current low at all. Your post (above mine) is the only one that refers to the low currently forming off SEQLD.

You... sorry but it appeared to me you were looking for an answer... as for any CS low being warm, the next few days should provide contrary evidence.

What makes it warm or cold core?? SST, has that got anything to do with that?

Thats an impressive looking system and now at about 25S and at the moment looking to be headed towards the Southern tip of New Caledonia. In fact it very much looks like its starting to be steered by the mid to upper levels where the flow is more to the WNW.

It would be very interesting to see such a system earlier in the year when SST's were somewhat warmer. I've seen lows in the Atlantic transition from cold cored to warm cored.

Very impressive and has landed and passed where earlier discussed... deepening to around 980hpa after hammering south east Queensland.
For El Stevo.. I've been away but this should help
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold-core_low

Are the long range models playing a joke or are we likely to see some low pressure development in the tropics cradled by a Tasman Sea high pressure system in 8-10 days+ time?

It's a GFS deterministic which quite frankly surprises me (should be gone by the next run). In short.. no chance... as for any cradling it would be in the arms of the Maori.

gfs has been running it for a few days now and keeping it stationary in the nth coral the entire time. slight intensification as this next strong ridge builds.

Sorry Mick.. I sincerely doubt any significant CS weather will occur re this possible event. The northern push (let's not talk equatorial) seems nowhere strong enough.

i dont expect any weather from it, too far north and far too weak.
if anything gfs should it pushing the onshore winds slight sse and drier than a usual ese flow with such a large high.

gfs continues to ramp this low up, even into what looks like a weak cyclone!
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=gfs
while access keeps the low weak, and ec refuses to acknowledge its exsistence.

GFS's tenacity on this is somewhat (that's an understatement) bemusing. BoM's interest has bombed. About the only thing EC is interested is a bit of a dip off Bris at 240tau.

Well that low now exists and is off the eastern end of PNG. JTWC have it as a low probability of development which seems to make sense. Nevertheless, any hint of development of truly tropical system in the Coral Sea at this time of the year is noteworthy.

WOW…. Across equatorial link… dare somebody to say the word LOL. Please read the entirety before making comment. Cimms wind maps show the reality and very little shear. This may actually brew.... extremely rare if so.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg

Rotation....http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shwvgms.html

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.4N
152.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.3N 144.5E, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CYCLONE EXISTS IN TANDEM WITH THE LLCC DISCUSSED
IN PARA 2.B.(1) AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY WIND BURST IN THE
EQUATORIAL LATITUDES. A 271401Z OCEANSAT IMAGE REVEALS 25-35 KNOT
WESTERLIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND A WEAK BUT
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 272202Z SSMIS IMAGE AND A 280001Z IMAGE BOTH
INDICATE MORE ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPED CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH AN APPARENT POINT SOURCE OVER THE CONVECTION. A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA AND IS ALSO PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW INTO THE DIVERGENT SIDE
OF THE TUTT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW AT 05-10 KNOTS BUT AS THE
AREA PROCEEDS WEST IT WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS), WHICH WILL HAMPER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS
SOME MODEL DEVELOPMENT INDICATED IN THE LATER TAUS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND BETTER ORGANIZATION
OF THE CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S
151.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 152.5E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST
OF PORT MORSEBY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
SPORADIC CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CYCLONE EXISTS IN TANDEM WITH THE LLCC DISCUSSED
IN PARA 1.B.(1). A 271356Z OCEANSAT IMAGE REVEALS NEAR-GALE FORCE
EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION OVER THE SOLOMONS. THE 271200Z PGTW UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A SINGULAR POINT DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM,
WITH FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS EXISTING OVER ALL QUADRANTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

A June Tc now that would be something

and gfs were the only one to show interest! model still keeps it pretty weak.

Good pick up Nerd... I and others had dismissed this... has GFS added some power... all EC sees is a mild wobble isobar wise.