Ok here we go. It looks like Victoria is in for some pretty heavy rain over the weekend of the 17th and 18th and also Monday 19th. Thursday should see some storms over the ranges and again on Friday before we head into the weekend where most parts of the State will see storms,showers/rain on Saturday but Sunday and Monday should be the days where all of Victoria will recieve heavy rain.
I may extend the date out until the 20th but I will check that out as we get closer to the weekend.

Really hope this does not eventuate to be anything too major at least for the CBD and Central areas. Flooding is a problem, and the city areas are just not coping with some of these downpours we are having. Shame, it can't spread out evenly, go where its needed and not cause damage.

I agree with Katyer, if it really does happen it could really be a disaster, we saw what happened with the 4th of February storms, and that was mostly NE Vic, plus SE burbs of melb, not widespread as this models are showing.

It looks to me like this event has been downgraded somewhat. The totals for my area have gone from 10-20mm to 5-10mm. Checked a few other towns and they were also downgraded. Mind you the same thing happened with the last system. I guess the models are trying to put it all together, so they will change from day to day until the event gets closer, when hopefully they agree and we will then know where we stand.

BOM forecast REALLY downplaying the chances, monday only isolated showers. Sunday and Saturday showers, but then again that was the same as last week.

True, I have checked the forecast and a few rainfall maps, and they seem to differ slightly. It is only Monday so I suppose anything can change between now and then.
Have an outdoor, only partly covered event to attend in Mordialloc, so I am hoping it
won't be another deluge. Also the damage is just getting beyond a joke for some
people. Street drainage is appalling in some areas.

Yeah, to be honest i'd rather have a wetter winter then wet summers, there's less damage in winter because there aren't nearly as many storms.

Yeah same here, EC showing a total of 10-12mm for us down at this end of the State over the weekend through to Tues.

Seems that this run of the models are predicting the high system below us to become a slightly more effective ridge rather that "double yolk" into a cradling system that can allow the moisture from the W to be trapped and add to it with moist NE'lies.

All this will change (wetter or drier) as the models evolve. What an interesting season!

[edit] - if the edit time has been extended by WZ - Thanks!


NOT!! - this system let me type away with all this only to find it wouldnt post it due to "time expired". A small irritation but why do we have to put up with it?????

It looks to me that, as happenend with last weekends system, the NE'ly moisture infeed has/will be negated by the formation of an ECL high up on the NSW coast and dragging the wetness away to NZ. [edit] - it must be wet on Norfolk Island!?

A bit off topic here but how does the 28 day forecast work?

I haven't got access to them so can't help you.
I do check the 14 day rainfall chart on here (WZ) and all of the BOM models on
that site, but from what I see, the rainfall ebbs away on Sat and returns late on Sunday, I have forgotten the totals but from memory it was over 20 ml for the central areas through to Monday.

Nah I don't have Silver either, it's in weather-> Long range forecasts.

TA ,
It doesn't really work that good ....

It tends to try and forecast off either the LWT Trough's positions, in Cold Front Activity and the MJO in Tropical influences .

I'd treat it with a grain of Salt.

Anything beyond Ten days forecast will be pretty inaccurate .
Genrally beyond this tyhe timing can be atleast 5 days out or it only takes one shift inbetwwen time to completely change it .

In saying that , once a Pattern becomes entrenched ( like now ) you can have repeating systems with a time cycle of a week , ten days or two weeks . At the moment we are in a weekly cycle of Combined Trough/Fronatl regularity . Hence Wet Weekends . This of course will change .

BTW , I think this one should deliver in the way of more widespread even totals . The following Front or even a cut-off between the two could see to that .

Thanks Oracle! Yeah there is a pattern this season, just like last year where it rained every single Wednesday from July to November or something like that.

So do you reckon there will be more rain then storm activity? At the moment the BOM are just suggesting showers which surely won't get Melbourne to the rainfall suggested by some of the models.

Oh yes, I know the ones you mean. They are fairly accurate I have found with predictions.

The pattern I have been noticing is one or maybe two calm nice days mid week and then it starts building from mid Friday and rain & storms on the weekend, and that seems to be every 2nd weekend. I haven't checked any archived records, just know it has always been when I had to drive into the city or bayside.

Yeah last year was like clockwork . ( I made a bit of Money off that ) ...
Esp. after the first Event in Sept . Can't recall exactly but Nth/Nw Vic received an event every month within the same week of each month . Apart from Nov ? Which had two lesser events and bugger all inbetween . It seems that it two was locked into a 6-10 day cycle .

As for this one , well you need to watch the speed and strength of the Ridge that may or may not form over the Tasman . This is a far longer (longitudal) Ridge than last week , and I think we may see something close to what we saw a few months back . Will be pretty hard to call and revolve around above mentioned Ridge formation and how early (far west) we see a cut off form . Come Thursday take notice of MSLP Observations in Broken Hill , Sydney and LHI ... This will show the tendency of Ridge Strength
.

Or Just bet against BOM , as they tend to liken themselves to Casino Bosses , Riding the Percentages . This position leads me to take the Punters Perspective and say we're in for a Three-Four Pronged (Trough,Cut-Off,Following FrontS) " wide spread " event .?!!!

Watching some showers building up over the bay and heading up through to Melbourne.
I have seen that pattern before where it just goes on for hours, and can be short sharp bursts of showers. We might see some of it with the wind direction.

LOL ....

Or perhaps it rains everyday ; ( east and south of the Yarra/Marybynong )and you only notice when you cross the " Bridge " .... heheheh

Melbourne forever in my Own observations has followed specific pattern's especially during average years . However the constant " holding Pattern " of Continental Lows /depressions has seen these patterns run shorter and a little less predictable in the last two years ( 'NINA dominated ) . Abundant TropicaL infeeds has made this more sporadic and contrasting .Of note the LWT hasn't had as much influence , and it is this that I'm looking at as major player in this next system .

Excuse my ignorance but what is LWT ?