Yep Ruckle, the now well-quoted AV from another forum says...

"Northern slopes as GFS suggests tonight should easily get over 100mm and flood all the rivers again. But the main difference is that the airmass doesnt change after this system for at least a fortnight. Which spells danger and a very active period coming up."

I must admit that I havent looked out past next Mon/Tue but will now do so with more interest!!

Why are you quoting AV ? He is from a other forum so what's the point. He provides some insight of what could happen if it all lines up perfect IMO.

Anyway models are changing all the time so it's hard to make a definitive rainfall prediction, but over 20mm widespread is a good estimate.

SH18 - simply about the close-on-heels system that might follow (if this weekends moisture hangs around). ST follows AV's posts (re a few posts above) and I respect both of them.

No matter what, moist air is able to arrive in Vic at the end of the week.

Is this AV Guy ' Avalon ' ???/ .

Anyway not important .

I've seen enough , I reckon it is significant but not a "Sept 2010 / Jan 2010 " Event . Maybe wide spread 30-40mm . And peaks 24/36 hr well over 100mm for numerous places in atleast 2 regional precincts .

Don't know about signifacant flooding , as only really the Yarra / Dandenong / and Westernport Basin is well primed . And generally these with the exception of the Upper Yarra receive well from these systems,(but still on if we see soem stalling and Southern Wrap around on exit .)

I think as others Have hinted that this could be the "Set up " system for the two weeks following .

Ridge seems to be Opening and Holding early as expected , with things really clearing up quite quickly this afternoon .
As opposed to the last few "stormy" systems this one looks like a wet one .
The Nth East Aust coastal influence has coem to life in the last week or two , and the NW moisture ( Kimberly / Darwin ) influence now seems to be on par or if not more significant than the WNW of the Indian Ocean that has been feeding inland systems for the last month or two . So its about time we saw a direct influence from this years " Pacific born ' Nina as opposed to ITF delivered Pacific-Indian ocean interaction that has held from last year within the Indian .( If this confuses , PM me ) .
Goodluck , Gumboots people ....
Back to ridiculous number of work hrs ....

Interactive Access - Global forecast maps on BoM indicate at this point that Sunday evening things should start to get interesting with a low forming on the Vic/SA border by early Sunday morning bringing rain 10-20mm to the NW of Vic the heaviest falls are in SW NSW, 20-50mm. The low gradually deepens through to Monday. This low will not move very far on Sunday as it has blocking highs either side. By early Monday the highs will move off to the east and the low will move SE bringing falls of 10-20mm to central Victoria, Gippsland and North eastern Victoria.
ECMF animated forecast maps have the low positioned further south in the Bight and the rain in the whole western half of Vic on Sunday, 10-20mm. It appears then that the low slips east to form a low on the south east coast of NSW. Not too sure about this one though.
Thought I would have a go at interpreting a couple of easy to read models. as with the last system things change from day to day, but interesting to see just how close these models get and how far out from an event they can get it right.

(edit time ran out) edit
"it appears then that the low slips east to form a low on the south east coast of NSW. Not too sure about this one though."
Low can't be slipping east. S/be 'slides'

12Z run at least has models showing a bit more similarity btw them in terms of placement and timing. Not the same by any stretch but a little closer than previous runs. Most have chance of storms by tomorrow afternoon on eastern ranges, maybe NE and North Central but thats pretty thin. Saturday band approaches NW and western parts, ACC and GFS have some storminess in front of it by the afternoon across a fair portion of he state, EC wans nothing to do with that. Band traverses the state Sunday quite slowly with general 10-25mm type falls and then possibly lingering into Monday over eastern parts or even ECentral parts.

Ncentral and NW Australia alot more active atm than it was with last system, that might help things. Still looking for a WV satellite if anyone can help?

try this one Ruckle

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=austeast&prod=wv&sat=gms

As Petros said, if there is even the remotest chance of a rain system then AV is on to it, credit where credits due. Its also interesting to examine how people with different forecasting focuses perceive and interpret the same event.

My interest was sparked in the 06Z/12Z GFS, with the potential for organised severe convection increasing markedly. While rainfall will probably be the main impact in Victoria, there does appear to be some chance of organised storms Sunday through Northern Victoria and Southern NSW, and possibly on the SW coast.

GFS is playing an interesting game as well with the accumulated precip, with numbers looking solid for 20mm falls, with much higher possible depending on the track of the cyclogenesis. Should note that it generally overcooks the precip totals due to convective parameterization and dewpoints being about 2 degrees upward biased in most situations. The totals will also probably be down as the system isn't hanging around.

As for this system being a 'setup' for later systems to come, well....aren't all systems a product of the conditions that proceed them .

Really? not the gumbies please its plugger season (thongs).

Best chance for storms Monday afternoon and evening?

If you live in the NE maybe. Lookin to me like all the good stuff is gonna go around us with this one. Maybe some action out west on Sunday, but it's all looking a bit underwhelming as far as storms go for the majority of Victoria.

Very much like the previous 2 large scale systems some areas will do well with the ample moisture available - IF it isnt pushed into NSW by the weak high progged to be off SE Vic later in the weekend. Models are all over the shop.

The most consensus is for good rain (30-50mm) over Vic whole west (those that miss out please dont whinge - you know how the models work) - and E SA.

Now that simply cant be a bad thing given the great conditions this week to strip the remainder of the grain harvest (the big $ in terms of our states economy) - so the cahnce to commence accumulating the soil moisture needed for next years (hopefully) repeat season.

We out this way can hope for circa 15mm from a wet Monday night with the data from the latest model runs.

Heres CMC's take on things for Sundays rain (note this is on top of previous rain in Vic's W the day before)...

EC has me down to 7mm at home for this event atm. Looks like good totals still possible in the W or NW and maybe secondary spike in the NE depending on how the band lines up. Still cant write off some rumbliesto the west on Saturday and any breaks or clearing on Sunday are a chance as well.

I live in caulfield. (SE melb)

Ant - why dont you add your location to your profile?

The BOM is forecasting possible showers and thunderstorms about the ranges to the north of Melbourne tomorrow afternoon/evening and again on Saturday... would be great if we do end up with large cumulonimbus developing over the next couple of days would be even better if a couple of those storms could suddenly pop up here in the Dandenong Ranges!

I just hope the weather won't disrupt my girlfriend's flight from Fiji... she's arriving at Melbourne Airport late tomorrow night

I doubt it'll pop up close to Melbourne, they're only saying 5% chance of anything at all.

Models look to be slowing things further,or maybe just with the southerly trajectory of the low it seems that way? most of em have rain barely as far east as Melbourne by Sunday evening. EC is a little quicker than that, has me back over 10mm now with more on Sunday pm/evening.

Interesting to see atm, oter than Gippsland whole state is in SE flow, trough is obviously hugging east atm. Could be a few cells on the eastern ranges crtainly today.

Lots of buildup on the ranges yesterday Ruckle and some close to Paky. Had me looking for a while but they died off pretty quick once the sun went down. I expect to see the same this arvo but hoping that they keep building and drop some sparks. Only time will tell.