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#1033793 - 23/11/2011 20:50 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: TC Poncho]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6762
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Okay I will do that them I will wait a bit longer.

Thanks for that update.


Edited by Mathew (23/11/2011 20:51)
_________________________
Rs tl 2016/17 Wet Season.
Rt: > 5/10/17 6.10mm >
Aug 8/16/2017 > >
> > p 24 h 35.81mm 05/15/17 122.69mm - 6/01/17 0.00mm p 24 h 0.00mm
T now 20.7C > Tm 30.4C minT 18.0C H 66% W 0.0kmG 10.4km BAROMETRIC 760.9mmhg 09:59pm 9/25/17 > re update night

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#1033864 - 23/11/2011 22:45 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: Mathew]
TC Poncho Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
150E 3S is rotating though. Is that even possible that close to the equator?
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#1034286 - 24/11/2011 17:24 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: TC Poncho]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6762
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Yep you are surely right. smile wink



Edited by Mathew (24/11/2011 17:26)
_________________________
Rs tl 2016/17 Wet Season.
Rt: > 5/10/17 6.10mm >
Aug 8/16/2017 > >
> > p 24 h 35.81mm 05/15/17 122.69mm - 6/01/17 0.00mm p 24 h 0.00mm
T now 20.7C > Tm 30.4C minT 18.0C H 66% W 0.0kmG 10.4km BAROMETRIC 760.9mmhg 09:59pm 9/25/17 > re update night

Top
#1035280 - 27/11/2011 15:33 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6762
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Here we go again people.



Edited by Mathew (27/11/2011 15:34)
_________________________
Rs tl 2016/17 Wet Season.
Rt: > 5/10/17 6.10mm >
Aug 8/16/2017 > >
> > p 24 h 35.81mm 05/15/17 122.69mm - 6/01/17 0.00mm p 24 h 0.00mm
T now 20.7C > Tm 30.4C minT 18.0C H 66% W 0.0kmG 10.4km BAROMETRIC 760.9mmhg 09:59pm 9/25/17 > re update night

Top
#1035483 - 28/11/2011 12:29 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: Mathew]
Vanuatu1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/02/2011
Posts: 58
We live in Vanuatu and your comments were invaluable last cyclone season. Vanuatu Met struggles to keep up with information so we really value and appreciate your opinions. Having said that, Vanuatu Met have posted information about the low being discussed in the above comments...Can anyone let us know what your thoughts are of this in the coming week or so.

Cheers!

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#1035693 - 28/11/2011 22:39 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: Vanuatu1]
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
this is all vanuatu met has to say

Low pressures may develop within Vanuatus Area in the next two to three days. The potential for these lows to develop further in the next two to three days is low.

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#1035742 - 29/11/2011 01:05 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: Squid]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
That's probably right Squid. Look ahead a couple of weeks. MJO return and my bet is there is a pretty good chance of a TC forming in the region.
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Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius

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#1035887 - 29/11/2011 13:31 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: boomer]
TC Poncho Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
yeah, wind shear is horrible at the mo. Just wait until the MJO hits the GOC atleast. We might get something drift over into the CS.
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#1036065 - 29/11/2011 20:33 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: TC Poncho]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Latest Vanuatu Met.....Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Vanuatu's Area (12S to 23S and 160E to 175E)
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Vanuatu issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 06:00 pm Tuesday, 29 November 2011.
There are no Tropical Lows or Tropical Cyclones within Vanuatus Area and none is expected in the next two to three days.

Latest Fiji Met
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region in each of the next three days, TILL 02nd December, 2011: Nil.

Latest New Caledonia Met (I cannot read French but I'm pretty sure they are saying the same thing)
http://www.meteo.nc/cyclone/coin-des-experts

Latest BOM. 0-5% (in BOMspeak that means nil)

So... all quiet on the eastern front (from where I sit)
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Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius

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#1037847 - 03/12/2011 01:55 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Not all is lost.... look toward mid December
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Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius

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#1037852 - 03/12/2011 02:36 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: boomer]
Cloudz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2010
Posts: 1645
Loc: Southport QLD
I have one sister heading out on monday to visit another sister who lives in Vanuatu, so for their sakes I'm glad it's relatively calm in the area.

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#1039789 - 08/12/2011 02:07 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: Cloudz]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns

Enso wrap Wed 07, Dec 2011
La Nia conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the La Nia is likely to peak during the next month and last at least until the end of summer.
Atmospheric indicators of ENSO, including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloudiness, all displayed some strengthening over the past fortnight, with the current SOI value of +15 being the highest since the breakdown of the 2010-11 event in May 2011. Similarly, the classic La Nia ocean patterns in the tropical Pacific have become more clearly defined over the past month. Despite this strengthening, the La Nia remains weaker than at the same time in 2010. Australias climate has responded to these recent changes, with above average rainfall across large parts of the north and west of the country since October.
La Nia periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year and summer across large parts of Australia, particularly the eastern and northern regions. Daytime temperatures are typically cooler than average and tropical cyclone risk for northern Australia increases during the cyclone season (November to April). During La Nia years, the first tropical cyclone to cross the Australian coast typically occurs in the first half of December. For detailed rainfall and temperature outlooks, please see: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead.

SST graphics below

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
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Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius

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#1040056 - 08/12/2011 19:39 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: boomer]
justme Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 192
Loc: Pacific Haven QLD
The link above indicates SST getting cooler. but the link below shows a lot of water in Coral Sea at 28 plus. Dont know at deeper levels though.

http://reg.bom.gov.au/oceanography/forecasts/idyoc13.shtml?region=13&forecast=2#

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#1040112 - 08/12/2011 22:58 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: justme]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2141
Loc: 中国上૲...
This shows the vertical wind shear (between Australia and the International Date Line)
As you can see there won't be any cyclones for now.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

Cyclones develop in areas of low vertical wind shear.


Edited by Steven (08/12/2011 22:58)

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#1040300 - 09/12/2011 17:40 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: Steven]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6762
Loc: Townsville, Queensland


Edited by Mathew (09/12/2011 17:41)
_________________________
Rs tl 2016/17 Wet Season.
Rt: > 5/10/17 6.10mm >
Aug 8/16/2017 > >
> > p 24 h 35.81mm 05/15/17 122.69mm - 6/01/17 0.00mm p 24 h 0.00mm
T now 20.7C > Tm 30.4C minT 18.0C H 66% W 0.0kmG 10.4km BAROMETRIC 760.9mmhg 09:59pm 9/25/17 > re update night

Top
#1040355 - 09/12/2011 21:26 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: Mathew]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Sorry Mathew, Where you are pointing is lowish, but precipitable moisture is gone = no vorticity
_________________________
Our life is what our thoughts make it - Marcus Aurelius

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#1040360 - 09/12/2011 21:46 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: boomer]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6762
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Okay them I will left that as that them.
_________________________
Rs tl 2016/17 Wet Season.
Rt: > 5/10/17 6.10mm >
Aug 8/16/2017 > >
> > p 24 h 35.81mm 05/15/17 122.69mm - 6/01/17 0.00mm p 24 h 0.00mm
T now 20.7C > Tm 30.4C minT 18.0C H 66% W 0.0kmG 10.4km BAROMETRIC 760.9mmhg 09:59pm 9/25/17 > re update night

Top
#1042524 - 12/12/2011 17:48 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6762
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Here we go it's is a start what to come.



Here the link if you want to up loading it up again to watch it again if you all want too.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html


Edited by Mathew (12/12/2011 17:57)
_________________________
Rs tl 2016/17 Wet Season.
Rt: > 5/10/17 6.10mm >
Aug 8/16/2017 > >
> > p 24 h 35.81mm 05/15/17 122.69mm - 6/01/17 0.00mm p 24 h 0.00mm
T now 20.7C > Tm 30.4C minT 18.0C H 66% W 0.0kmG 10.4km BAROMETRIC 760.9mmhg 09:59pm 9/25/17 > re update night

Top
#1042573 - 12/12/2011 19:09 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: Mathew]
Kev86 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/01/2011
Posts: 95
With regard to what Mathew has posted above, just a question.

All the 3-day outlooks indicate this will do nothing, but if someone could explain why it will do nothing, that be good.

From what i gather the SST's are sitting around 28/29 in that area [which is sufficient] and wind shear is >10knots [perfect] - there's instability, enough distance from equator to get her spinning....is there no moisture? or am i missing something or incorrect?.


Edited by Kev86 (12/12/2011 19:14)

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#1042585 - 12/12/2011 19:16 Re: South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/12 [Re: Kev86]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6762
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
I have post it's ones again just to let another people know there is some things developing out there at the moment that might be developing into some things with the next few days time.

I am going with a good %50 to %50 chance here.

Some one got to give me a bit of a chance here.

The water is right for Tropical Cyclone development this time of the year.
We really should be keeping a watch what developing out there at the moment.

Hopefully this help you there.


Edited by Mathew (12/12/2011 19:17)
_________________________
Rs tl 2016/17 Wet Season.
Rt: > 5/10/17 6.10mm >
Aug 8/16/2017 > >
> > p 24 h 35.81mm 05/15/17 122.69mm - 6/01/17 0.00mm p 24 h 0.00mm
T now 20.7C > Tm 30.4C minT 18.0C H 66% W 0.0kmG 10.4km BAROMETRIC 760.9mmhg 09:59pm 9/25/17 > re update night

Top
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