Severe Weather Warning courtesy of the NZ MetService

ISSUED BY MetService AT
9:14 am 14-Dec-2011

Very Heavy rain for the west and north of the South Island. Also heavy rain for Mt Taranaki, Northland, the north of Auckland, Coromandel, Bay of Plenty and Tongariro National Park.

An active front over the Tasman Sea should move slowly eastwards across New Zealand during Wednesday and Thursday. This front is preceded by a strong and very humid northeasterly flow. Rain is likely for much of the country, with the heaviest falls in the west and north of both islands. Warning amounts of rain are likely during Wednesday and early Thursday for Westland and Buller, Marlborough, and for Nelson where as much as 400mm of rain may fall about the northwest Ranges.

As the front approaches the North Island from Wednesday afternoon through to Thursday morning warning amounts of rain are expected for Mt Taranaki, Northland, the north of Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Tongariro National Park. Rain in most of these areas should ease from the west on Thursday, however heavy rain is expected to persist in the east of the Bay of Plenty overnight Thursday.

People are advised rivers and streams may rise rapidly, flooding and slips are possible.

Area Forecast - Nelson

In the 27 hours from 9am Wednesday to noon Thursday expect 300 to 400mm of rain in the ranges west of about Motueka and 150 to 250mm in the remainder of Nelson. Peak intensities of 20 to 35mm/hr, easing Thursday morning.

Other Area Forecasts:

Westland
In the 21 hours from 9am Wednesday expect 150 to 300mm of rain. Peak intensities of 25 to 35mm/hr, easing late Wednesday evening.

The ranges of Buller, including the Paparoa Range
In the 27 hours from 9am Wednesday to noon Thursday expect 150 to 200mm of rain. Peak intensities of 15 to 25mm/hr, easing Thursday morning.

Marlborough
In the 30 hours from 9am Wednesday to 3pm Thursday expect 150 to 200mm of rain about the ranges and 80 to 120 in the remainder of Marlborough. Peak intensities of 15 to 25mm/hr expected, easing from around midday Thursday.

Mt Taranaki
In the 27 hours from noon Wednesday to 3pm Thursday expect 100 to 150mm of rain. Peak intensities of 15 to 25mm/hr expected from late Wednesday evening.

Northland
Rain is expected to become persistent and heavy Wednesday afternoon. In the 18 hours from midday Wednesday to 6am Thursday, expect 80 to 120mm of rain. Peak intensities of 15 to 20mm/hr expected Wednesday evening and overnight Wednesday.

Coromandel Peninsula
In the 18 hours from midnight Wednesday expect 70 to 100mm of rain. Peak intensities of 15 to 20mm/hour Thursday morning.

Bay of Plenty
In the 30 hours from midnight Wednesday to 6am Friday expect heavy rain to spread east across the area. 100 to 150mm could accumulate. Peak intensities of 15 to 20mm/hr in the west Thursday morning and over the entire area Thursday afternoon. Rain easing in the west Thursday evening and in the east early Friday morning.

Tongariro National Park
In the 24 hours from midnight Wednesday to midnight Thursday expect 100 to 150mm of rain. Peak intensities of 15 to 20mm/hr Thursday, easing Thursday evening.

Auckland north of Orewa
In the 18 hours from 6pm Wednesday to midday Thursday expect 60 to 90mm of rain. Peak intensities of 10 to 20mm/hr, easing Thursday morning.

Latest synoptic chart
Valid at: 7:00am Wednesday 14 Dec 2011


Latest Satellite Image
1:00pm Wednesday 14 Dec 2011


3 Hourly Rainfall Forecast
7:00pm Wednesday 14 Dec 2011


Wettest:
11.6mm at Hokitika Aerodrome AWS

Some locations in the Nelson area have already received over 200mm according to MetService.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bc3LX2R1XM8&feature=youtu.be

State of emergency declared in Nelson

"MetService says another 150 to 300mm is likely around the ranges of Nelson on top of similar amounts that have already fallen.

The forecaster said totals of 500mm were possible in some places, making it a "very significant" amount of rain."

Severe Weather Warning Courtesy of the NZ MetService

ISSUED BY MetService AT
8:05 pm 14-Dec-2011

Major rainfall event for the Nelson Region, with torrential falls not expected to ease until Thursday morning. Very heavy rain for other western and northern parts of the South Island and northern parts of the North Island.

An active front over the Tasman Sea should move slowly eastwards across New Zealand overnight Wednesday and Thursday. This front is preceded by a strong and very humid north to northeast flow. Significant rain has already fallen in parts of Westland, Buller, northern Marlborough and especially Nelson, and is not expected to ease in these areas until Thursday morning. Another 100 to 200mm is expected about the ranges of Nelson on top of 200 to 400mm that has already fallen in the last 24 hours, with totals for this entire event possibly exceeding 500mm in some places. This is a very significant amount of rain for the Nelson Region and people there are advised that further flooding and slips are likely.

Warning amounts of rain are also expected for Mt Taranaki, Northland, the north of Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Tongariro National Park from this evening through to Thursday afternoon or evening, and may persist in the east of the Bay of Plenty until the early hours of Friday.

People in these areas are advised that rivers and streams are likely to rise rapidly, and that surface flooding and slips are possible.

Area Forecasts:

Westland
In the 9 hours from 9pm Wednesday to 6am Thursday, expect another 50 to 100mm of rain about the ranges and 30 to 50mm nearer the coast, on top of what has already fallen. Peak intensities of 15 to 25mm/hr are expected at first, easing overnight.

The ranges of Buller, including the Paparoa Range
In the 14 hours from 9pm Wednesday to 11am Thursday, expect another 50 to 100mm of rain on top of what has already fallen. Peak intensities of 10 to 20mm/hr tonight, easing early Thursday morning.

Nelson
In the 15 hours from 9pm Wednesday to noon Thursday, expect another 100 to 200mm of rain in the ranges west of Motueka, 100 to 150mm in the ranges inland from Nelson City, and 50 to 100mm in the remainder of the Region. This is on top of substantial rain that has already fallen, with totals for this entire event possibly exceeding 500mm about some ranges. Peak intensities of 20 to 35mm/hr can be expected about the ranges, easing around 6am Thursday.

Marlborough
In the 18 hours from 9pm Wednesday to 3pm Thursday, expect another 80 to 140mm of rain about the Richmond Ranges and Marlborough Sounds, and 50mm in other parts of Marlborough, excluding the Kaikoura Coast. Peak intensities of 15 to 25mm/hr expected about the Richmond Range and Sounds, easing around midday Thursday.

Mt Taranaki
In the 18 hours from 9pm Wednesday to 3pm Thursday, expect another 100 to 150mm of rain on top of what has already fallen. Peak intensities of 15 to 25mm/hr expected overnight Wednesday and Thursday morning. Note, 30 to 60mm of rain is likely about low lying areas north of the mountain, including New Plymouth.

Northland
Rain is expected to become persistent and heavy this evening. In the 14 hours from 9pm Wednesday to 11am Thursday, expect 70 to 100mm of rain, and possibly up to 150mm about the eastern hills north of Whangarei. Peak intensities of 15 to 20mm/hr expected early Thursday morning, especially about the eastern hills.

Coromandel Peninsula
In the 18 hours from midnight Wednesday to 6pm Thursday, expect 70 to 100mm of rain, and possibly up to 150mm about the ranges. Peak intensities of 15 to 20mm/hour Thursday morning and afternoon, especially about the ranges.

Bay of Plenty
In the 30 hours from midnight Wednesday to 6am Friday expect heavy rain to spread east across the area. 100 to 150mm could accumulate, especially about the ranges. Peak intensities of 15 to 20mm/hr in the west Thursday morning and over the entire area Thursday afternoon. Rain easing in the west Thursday night and in the east early Friday morning.

Tongariro National Park
In the 24 hours from midnight Wednesday to midnight Thursday, expect 100 to 120mm of rain. Peak intensities of 15 to 20mm/hr, easing Thursday evening.

Auckland north of Orewa
In the 18 hours from 9pm Wednesday to 3pm Thursday, expect 60 to 90mm of rain. Peak intensities of 10 to 20mm/hr overnight, easing late Thursday morning.

423mm in 24 hours at Takaka, and 181 at Nelson itself.

Unbeleivable amount of rain! Couple of mates are over there atm but thankfully staying around the Mt Cook area so nothing like the totals further north.

I have been over the Kiwi side of the ditch for the last few days, and for a few more, and the images on TV I have been seeing on TV about the state of disaster have been the slips, things like huge chunks of roads ripped out down the side of hills, things just covered in brown mud from slips. I have been lucky and been up in the north half of the north island where it has just been constant rain.