JTWC also onboard with a HIGH rating for cyclone development which will be almost certain if it gets into the GOC.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
130.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 131.4E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVERLAND AND TRACKING EASTWARD.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM KATHERINE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS). MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTXS22 PGTW 250230) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS

their latest update has canned it?

1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 250230). ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVERLAND AND TRACKING EASTWARD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE LLCC IS LOCATED NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. DUE TO THE CONTINUED EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED
SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.//

Looking at latest land Obs , radar and sat loop http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscolw.html it appears this tight LLCC is not doing what everyone had expected with a S - SE track this morning. It is heading quite rapidly ENE and is very tightly consolidated around its LLCC. Latest models ACCESS R & G , GFS , and even EC now put this system very close , if not in the SW GOC by about 2300hrs tonight. Given the JTWC take , the models and real time Obs I am surprised there is not more interest in this system as everyone seems to have decided it had washed out. I think it will prove that wrong in next 24 hrs or so. Darwin BOM still forecasting destructive gusts associated with this low to 125KPH and that is while it is over land once it gets the jucie it needs would not be surprised to see it bomb quickly. It is traveling aong a perfect line at the moment with regards to minimal wind shear and good upper level support. Moisture feed is not a problem and SST's in the SW GOC in excess of 32 degrees all adds up to a great chance IF and I say IF it strikes open ocean.

Just noticed that JTWC have cancelled their call on the system , but I expect that may change again once it nears the SW GOC. Looking at this system on radar and sat loop it looks the best it has looked since it developed does not look like dissipating any time soon to me. Check out the feeder bands on all quadrants and has good outflow as well , hard to find to many negatives that will impact on this sytem at the moment.

Yeh correct this thing is heading E a quiet a fast rate and will continue to gain speed.. and looks good on radar at this stage, my guess is it will hit the gulf however it will soon start to dip to ESE then SE.. so depends on how long the current upper levels keep it going in that East direction for it may start to dip to the ESE this evening before making GOC waters!

strange how JTWC changed their mind on this.. the monsoon should keep feeding this system over land.. stil having a strong NW feed

Latest out of Darwin BOM have system 60km ENE of Katherine and moving east at 25KPH towards the soup waters of the GOC watch it fire up when it gets close to those waters

Will be interesting to see BOM take on situation as the day goes and IF the LLCC keeps on heading east especially at such a high rate. Possibilty for a cyclone watch if it looks like getting into the GOC or at least a SWW for the Gulf country one would think.Looking forward to latest model take on the system given it has not taken the S - SE path they were prog yesterday so the longer it stays the course east especially at such a rate of knots will have big effect on where it eventually travels through Qld.

We must be the only 2 watching this one hey!

Its going to be a close.. maybe the last few frames on the radar it has taken a ESE turn..

Its inevitable that it will take a SE turn at some stage, one would suspect it would be very soon.

Was there ever any mention that it was it was meant to head due east before taking the turn though? Can't remember an easterly path being mentioned.

No mention in previous prog for an easterly track. Agree it will turn SE eventually but the big question is when that occurs and how sharp a turn as to the LLCC getting over water again. It is moving very fast in a generally easterly movement at the moment. Keep eye on the obs for Tindal , Bulman , Daly Waters , Borroloola and Groote Eylandt with regard to pressure drop and wind direction.

originally with the SE track the BoM and GFS had it tracking, it only just missed ending up in the GoC. With this more initial east track and its speed IMO it will end up in the GoC and intensify as long as the uppers have low shear.

could end up being a coast hugger like previous gfs forecasts

I want this to get to at least boroloola before heading south east. I would love it if the models to be a bit wrong and get this thing into the gulf.

Pressure at Bulman dropping fast down to 998.4 drop of over 2 HP in last 90 minutes and wind change now from NNW , you may get your wish Trav. I can not beleive the lack of interest in this LLCC given its current structure , radar signature , in a good shear enviroment and heading east rapidly towards the GOC with SST's above 32 degrees. The pulling effect of the trough to the SE not as strng as originally prog I guess or proof again that despite super computer models these systems will do what they want and best guide is real time atmospheric obs.

it even looked like it was travelling slightly ENE for a while for a few passes on the satloop.

Latest ACCESS run has LLCC right on the coastline of GOC around QLD/NT boarder at 1000hrs Tomorrow that model is however betting on a turn to the SE in the next few hours if it stays more east of the south trend then the LLCC will end up over open water north of Borroloola current SST of approx 32.3 degress and little vertical wind shear with a great NW Monsoonal surge across the eastern GOC should spin up very quickly.

I reckon that this low covers a lot larger area than what is being shown on the charts. Both on the MSLP and in the uppers. Look at how much weather it is affecting around it. There are bands out in the GOC already that are associated with it.

Well based on current radar loops still moving more east then south and still fast. Supported by land obs out of Daly Waters , Bulman , Borroloola , Groote Eylandt and Tindal. Pressure continues to drop to east of the system and wind direction changes support east ward movement of LLCC. Boorolloa down to 999HPA now and wind from North. Bulman down to 998.7 wind from NW , Daly Waters wind change from SW to S good indication system moving in a generaly easterly direction still.

with the speed its moving at, it could reach open water around 10pm-12pm tonight... right with the diurnal max. Could wake up to a tc in the morning??

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Thursday 26 January 2012

Valid until the end of Sunday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A Tropical Low, 996 hPa, was located near 14.5S 133.4E at 12:30pm CST on 26
January, about 120 km east of Katherine moving east southeast at 23 km/h. The
low is expected to move to the southeast passing close to the southern Gulf of
Carpentaria coast during Friday. The low is then expected to move over the
interior of Queensland during the weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:
Friday: Low.
Saturday: Very Low.
Sunday: Very Low.

They covered there asses by saying a low chance in the outlook instead of very low.