Pressure drop consistent to the east of the LLCC Borroloola and Groote Eylandt dropping now down to 998HPA and wind directions from ground obs in region indicate still more easterly movement then south should push off into SW GOC waters overnight at current rate around centre island. Would not be surprised to see a flash cyclone alert issued later this evening if this trend continues. High resolution visible sat pic shows very tight LLCC with great storm clusters around the centre. Shear and uppers are very favorable for development.

Hmm I hope you're right Snowmad but I'm not so sure. I think a turn to the SE is imminent for this system. Which will mean eastern Victoria will probably end up getting more rain out of this system than north Queensland.

yeah, theres no doubt it will go SE IMO, is just a matter of when.

yep, might not make the open waters now. Definitely turned more SE. However, the convection around its center seems to have ramped up quite alot!

[quote=TC Poncho]yep, might not make the open waters now. Definitely turned more SE. However, the convection around its center seems to have ramped up quite alot! [/quote
Yes it certainly looks like its maintaining its strength but its curling around now me thinks.... i think the outcome of this low will reach Lake Eyre in about 10 months!

LOL, just in time for next cyclone season.

McArthur River Mine down to 995HPA and wind shift to ENE will get close to the GOC by morning.

Have to say I like your style tracking this low snowmad, its much more interesting than just waiting to see what the models say. You learn more by tracking live obs aswell.

Also it seems the models tend to handle larger systems much better than the smaller systems like this one anyway. Hopefully the day never comes where they can accurately predict these events accurately 100% of the time. That'd be so boring and the end of this forum as we know it!

Checking in snowmad, how we looking! Just out of radar range to pin point it's location, resort to sat! Anyone Care to post the latest sat image

seems to be meandering now. looks to be moving east again.

Looking at most recent Sat loop and also land obs out of Borroloola , Centre Island and McArthur River Mine and appears to take a bit of a jog more east. Air pressure continues to drop and wind gusts to 54KPH on centre island. Looks to have LLCC somewhere btw north of Borroloola towards Bing Bong on the coast. Still think it will go very close to getting back into the ocean for a drink. At any rate staring to get great convection and flaring around the LLCC and stays in an area of nil shear so should maintain intensity.

i have the latest position of its western edge of the LLCC from the radar at about 15.05s 135.16e which is approx 50Km's from the coast...that's it's western edge so the eastern edge may be less than 30km's from the coast.

Last 1hr on the 10min enhanced loops with wind rose radar images indicates a definite jog east even a tad ENE getting very close to the coast looks amazing on enhaced microwave via CIMISS plenty of energy feeding into the LLCC off the GOC already next few hours will tell the picture. I will be interested to see the Ozcyclone boys take on the current situation as just about everyone wrote this one off last night.

yeah, it has lots of storms and convection on its southern side too.

Common little bit further ! - Goto be close now

Looks like it should get pretty close to darwin there. lol.

I keep wanting to call you mission shak. lol Old names stick.

CIMSS indicates that the steering for the low near the goc has been moving east with the low, not west like it was supposed to.

hehe woops
well i'm still in the shak it was just on a mission to be Yassified...

Centre island winds increasing at steady rate up to 62KPH now and pressure down to 997HPA looking good on sat pic just needs to shunt itself about another 50 - 100 km east to take a big warm drink.

Just what it needs !

Can anyone pin point the LLCC ?