Ha it's all good. I'm new here too. The low in that advice is over near the Cocos islands. I don't think the WA outlook has picked up on the GoC one yet.

Low in the northern goc is showing deep flaring around a totally exposed llc, still their is nothing else to look at atm.

Its so tame here hey, oh well, every day is a day closer to the BIG action

Had an incredible storm in Gove this afternoon. Saw some wonderful cumulonimbus clouds afterwards, something I have rarely seen here. It may sound silly but I can't help but feel like there is something in the air. Wildlife is also acting unusual and the ants in the house are driving me crazy. Anyway I probebly sound a bit batty and time will tell.

The low in the northern goc has moved north over png, the extra convection generated overland has enhanced the low pressure centre, if it moves south over water quick enuff it should be able to start the feedback effect.

jazzy is gone finally we can forget about that... cyclone, and hopefully something stirs up further north, february dosnt normally start this dull

There seems to be a little bit of rotation in that area nth of the GoC atm.

Yes I noticed that to COLDFRONT

Yep it's surely is at the moment.

.

i am going with 100% chance the BOM think it will have less than a 5% of developing further!!

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Sunday 12 February 2012

Valid until the end of Wednesday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to
develop during the next three days. A weak monsoon trough is located the north
Arafura Sea.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:
Monday: Very Low.
Tuesday: Very Low.
Wednesday: Very Low.

All well let see what happen any way that what I think any way. The key for development I may well wait a little bit longer if it's does do it's or not.

you have been fairly persistant with this one mathew and its seems as though tonight the senario is setting up alot better for another northern goc system
one of the png low pressure centres is getting alot stronger pulsing tonight and will likley move west ofshore and start cyclone development within the next 48 hours

this png event has also made me realise that the png shelf can actually become a focal point for the monsoon trough and pacific feedback loop to the point where it can have 3-4 low pressure centres along the breadth of the mountainous land mass at the same time

A lot of development up the top end need a bit of watching over the coming days for NT/WA.

One of the low pressure centres has finally left png and is slowly moving west across the northern goc, the entire area is showing pressure fluctuations that initially suppress convection before deep flaring begins, some intial cyclogensis is happening in the last few mtsat frames though flaring will most likely start tomorrow afternoon.

Wishful thinking. Wait until the next MJO comes across.

A tightly wrapped low pressure centre has formed north of Gove its drawn moisture from the north, creating a thuderstrom cluster aorund 8s 135.

Yeah its a buildup of convection and pressure waves against an environment of high shear definately alot of action out there.

Has been like this since last season and part of the reason why Yasi formed and why i rekon another similiar system may form this season.

Since last season cyclogensis conditions have changed and its made it far more difficult to predict, and it was already difficult to begin with

The pressure waves have now created a tropical low in the eastern top end area, over the northern nt area in the last 24-48 storm systems are forming more frequently and holding convection better during the night, mtsat shows a very strong monsoon trough over the northern territory currently the strongest in the indonesian acrchipelago area and also likley to be one of our biggest wide spread rainfall events.

For those interested on the latest climatic stuff by our mate from the USA (this has been posted on our FB site, but we realise not everyone has FB):


NORTHERN WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK
Tropical Cyclone potential is VERY LOW next week but there is a HIGH potential for a tropical LOW to develop near the Kimberley coastline (so it needs monitoring). Overall the rainfall pattern between Monday and Sunday next week suggests wetter conditions over most of WA and central Australia. Below to well below average rainfall expected over most of Queensland next week except for the north tropical and Peninsula east coasts which can expect average or slightly above average rainfalls due to surface and mid level ridging.

NORTHERN WEATHER PATTERN FROM THE 5TH TO 11TH MARCH
Tropical Cyclone Potential remains LOW, Tropical LOW formation potential remains HIGH and the favoured area is well west of the coastline in the SE Indian Ocean. We see average to slightly above average precipitation values over most of Australia this week as the Queensland ridge breaks down and the monsoon trough begins re-appearing over northern and north-western parts. The trough is strongest over the NW (west of about Darwin) and so that area is likely to see the highest rainfall amounts. The only section of Australia expected to see dryish conditions is the northern Cape York Peninsula.

FROM THE 12TH TO 18TH MARCH
Tropical Cyclone potential increases to MODERATE TO HIGH particularly near the NW coast of Australia. Tropical LOW development potential is VERY HIGH. In this week we are anticipating a strong monsoon trough over the far north and north-west extending as far east as the NT coast and weakening, but still present as it heads into far north Queensland. We are expecting ABOVE AVERAGE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE rainfalls over most of the northern continent. Especially so over the NW coast of Australia.

FROM THE 19TH TO THE 25TH MARCH
We are expecting the Monsoon trough to peak in intensity over the Australian coastline therefore we are looking at a MODERATE TO HIGH potential for TC development this week, once again especially in the NW parts of the continent with potential increasing also in the Timor Sea and GOC. Once again the entire northern continent is expected to see above average rainfalls and particularly wetter than normal totals this week expected over the western Cape York Peninsula and the NW coast of WA. Please note that this is a VERY LONG WAY OUT AND SUBJECT TO MASSIVE CHANGES

NOTES ON THE MJO
The MJO signal is currently in the process of strengthening, we expect based on model guidance from a number of computer models that this moderate to strong signal will be maintained through phase 3 SE Indian Ocean and phase 4 Northern Oz before weakening in Phase 5 (Coral Sea) late in March. Consequently this strong MJO signal is likely to see the return of a vigorous monsoonal trough over north and north-west Australia with the weakening trough extending eastwards towards the Coral Sea in weeks 4 and then week 5 (last week of March) A new MJO may form and affect Australia late in April, however it's way too far to call at this stage.