EC cut'n'paste from tues/wed/thurs next week. Had to cut it so everyone would'nt drool over what was in WA. lol Either way though it could be an area that comes into play for the NT.

EC continues it on out into the GOC and then......OOOPPPSS better not say anything more otherwise I might send a flurry of posts into the QLD threads lol.

Enjoy your lows Popeye, at least someone got something to watch.
Hopefully our turn later sometime.
Looks like it could be ramping up a bit in the North GOC soon.

Hopefully later runs move the low further north so we can see an actual cyclone develop.

LMAO Popeye

Gotta give it to our QLD friends when the chance arises!!

the WA aor low is showing quick development i rekon it is a strong cat1 by now,

the NT area bounded by

129e9s 133e9s and 129e13s 133e13s

is showing really good cyclogenisis, like yesterday futher east was, i say this because the low pressure centre outer/inner winds are showing almost prefectly clockwise circular winds unlike the general trending westerly propagating gulf lines that normally appear before the tc.


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shwvgmsw.html

72km/hr gust 54km/hr sustained in that storm front highest wind readings in a while

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Thursday 8 March 2012

Valid until the end of Sunday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough currently lies over the Timor and Arafura Seas and is
expected to become more active north of the Top End over the coming days. A
tropical low is expected to form within the trough during the weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern Region on:
Friday: Very Low.
Saturday: Very Low.
Sunday: Low.

The risk of a tropical cyclone forming in the Northern Region is expected to
continue to increase into next week.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:20 pm CST Friday 9 March 2012

Valid until the end of Monday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough currently lies over the Timor and Arafura Seas and is
becoming more active. A tropical low is expected to form within the trough north
of the Top End during the weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern Region on:
Saturday: Very Low.
Sunday: Low.
Monday: Moderate.

The risk of a tropical cyclone forming in the Northern Region is expected to
increase early next week.

ec continues to move the darwin low west into the goc, likewise with gfs, ext gfs having it cross the SE goc before moving it south. along way out to look ahead though.

some good turing in the arafura sea, darwin had atmospheric popping last night where vapour was forming large cloud blobs that would appear and then dissapear back into the atmosphere from all the heat and pressure fluctuations

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Saturday 10 March 2012

Valid until the end of Tuesday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak tropical low has formed in the Arafura Sea well north of the Arnhem
coast. The low is expected to slowly deepen as it moves west or southwest
towards the Timor Sea. There is an increasing risk of a tropical cyclone
developing in the Timor Sea during the week, which could affect the Kimberley
coast from Wednesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern Region on:
Sunday: Low.
Monday: Low.
Tuesday: Moderate.

Two tropical lows so close together with the outer winds interacting off the kimberly coast, makes a very difficult senario to predict, the instability has increased alot with winds increasing and circulating/swirling at a rapid rate right down the wa nt shelf

A couple of the models are starting to think there will be a TC in the GoC later in the week. With most models forecasting the WA system to move SE it would most likely mean any developing low in the GoC would remain in QLD and not run off to the west. Major flooding again? Early days but it could get very interesting in the days ahead.

Some of QLD's biggest flooding events have come out of the Gulf including Townsville's Ex-Sid deluge in '98.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
GFS ensemble agrees in a south eastward drift.
EC is more circumspect but is drifting along the same lines.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
Here's the latest BOM version... CAT 2 SW of Darwin

the low pressure centre is 300-400km ofshore to the nnw of darwin should it track southwest towards the kimberly coastline it has plenty of open water to intensify and we could well have a severe tropical cyclone sitting in the JBG by wednesday afternoon, thurday morning

All of the models disagree (except for Access as I posted above... it thinks a TC will happen west... not)
BOM of course contradicts itself... but it does certainly appear that the Gulf will get something... the trough will give it the kick.

its to early to call gulf activity imo the low has gone just to the north west of the tiwi islands far enough that it will intensify significantly before it reaches eather the wa aor or the goc where it could start to become a qld tc

currenlty the posistion of the developing tropical low while slightly down on intensity matches the location of 2 previous cat 4's & 1 cat 5


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Tracy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Olivia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Thelma

This may be the making of the BoM