from the BOM website.

http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/nt/20111013.shtml

Northern Territory tropical cyclone season outlook for 2011-12
Northern Territory residents are reminded it's time to prepare for the cyclone season once again, with average to above average cyclone activity predicted for the coming season.

Bureau of Meteorology Northern Territory Acting Regional Director, Todd Smith said sea surface temperatures are currently close to average in the waters surrounding the NT, and are expected to continue to warm toward the end of the year.

"Ocean conditions currently indicate weak La Nina conditions, which are expected to persist into next year," said Mr Smith.

"During La Nina years we tend to see an earlier start to the season, and more cyclones than normal across the Australian Region -but every La Nina is different. The average for the Northern Territory is two to three per season, with one or two affecting coastal areas. This is what we need to be prepared for."

"Although a La Nina would suggest generally more cyclone activity, cyclones are inherently unpredictable and Tropical Cyclone Carlos earlier this year was a good example of that," said Mr Smith, "Carlos formed right over the top of Darwin in mid-February, causing widespread flooding and downing trees across Darwin. As it moved inland, it triggered a major flood of the Daly River affecting the community of Nauiyu."

Northern Territory Emergency Services Director, Peter Davies, said regardless of whether the outlook points toward a more or less active cyclone season, it's still the cyclone season.

"Residents of coastal and island communities need to make the most of the last two weeks of October to clean up their yards, refresh their emergency kit and consider what they will do if and when a cyclone watch or warning is declared. It is essential that people in areas affected by cyclones plan ahead and decide whether they will evacuate to a safer area, or what their options are to shelter from dangerous weather conditions," said Mr Davies.

The cyclone season runs from November to April. The highest number of cyclones observed in the Northern Territory region during any season is five, with the average being two to three. During La Nina years cyclone activity is often concentrated in the Arafura and Timor Seas, rather than in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Be free to have a look your self on this web sites by up loading it.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscolw.html

That the best area so far I think I will be keeping a watch on over the next few more days time.

I will go with you to see what you think mate.

All quite according to the latest outlook....
IDD10610

UPDATED
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

UPDATED Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf
of Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 3:15 pm CST Tuesday 1 November 2011

Valid until the end of Friday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant tropical lows in the region.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the region on:
Wednesday: Very low.
Thursday: Very low.
Friday: Very low.
NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day...
Very low: less than 5%, Low: 5% to 20%, Moderate: 20% to 50%, High: Over 50%.

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor [northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E].

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Thursday 15 December 2011

Valid until the end of Sunday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to
develop during the next three days. A weak monsoon trough is expected to develop
over the Arafura Sea during the weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:
Friday: Very low.
Saturday: Very low.
Sunday: Very low.

1800Z GFS run has what looks like a Cat 2 TC off the coast of Darwin on 23rd December moving to the SW.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Friday 16 December 2011

Valid until the end of Monday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to
develop during the next three days. A weak monsoon trough is forming over the
Arafura Sea over the weekend and is expected develop further early next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:
Saturday: Very low.
Sunday: Very low.
Monday: Very low.

Keep an eye on the gulf west of the tip
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscolw.html

2 active hot spots to look for over next 7 days,
1 - Over top end coast
2 - Over Nthn Coral sea

Our third hot spot in the Gulf has been dropped by most modelling, dry air incursion from southerlies over Queensland into the southern and central Gulf has minimized cyclogenesis potential in the region.

Very strong chance of a low forming somewhere between the gulf of carpenteria all the way across the the gulf west of darwin.

More models coming into line now about the positioning of a monsoonal low. CMC, EC, GFS and now ACCESS:

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Sunday 18 December 2011

Valid until the end of Wednesday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant tropical lows in the Region. A weak monsoon trough is
beginning to develop over the Arafura Sea, and a low pressure system may form in
the next two to three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:
Monday: Very low.
Tuesday: Very low.
Wednesday: Low

Latest GFS has this low/ cat 1 just missing darwin.

I say there is a good %50 to %50 chance WA may get a cat 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone or an Severe Tropical Cyclone cat 4 if it's all go very well.

(There well could be a high chance of there one develop more into a cat 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone later in it's run if it's happen or not. I give it's a good %50 to %50 chance)

When it's hear the WA coast I mean.

I like to know What do you all think??

EC also has it hitting darwin...

That got to be very closely watch as well.

There is a low chance there well could be an another Tropical Cyclone coming in from the top end of NT after this run as well just some things to keep a watch on if it's happen or not.

This one may go into the GOC water as well and become an Tropical Cyclone.

That the one I am keeping a watch on as well.

I am only saying a deep low chance if it's happen or not I mean.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/wp201127.gif

Just who is right? Worth following to determine the mega bucks spent on advance forecasting. EC Vs GFS Vs CMC and Christmas Day in Darwin

Latest GFS ensemble has a low on Darwin (and New Caledonia) on Xmas Day.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

Latest EC ensemble has no obvious low near Darwin but does have a low region NW of New Caledonia
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

Latest CMC ensemble has low cat TC to the NE of Darwin (and a lowish area on the Cape)
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0


Latest GFS deterministic (deterministic being far less reliable) has a cat one/two west of Darwin at the same time
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

Latest EC deterministic shows a lowish area NW of Darwin
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

Latest CMC deterministic has Darwin under the influence of a low level TC
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

GFS and CMC have initialised cyclogenesis a lot earlier than EC. GFS and CMC regularly struggle with tropics simulation of thunderstorm development and formation. Very good models for mid lats, but not as valuable for tropical thunderstorm activity.

Once a system develops GFS can reliably show steering and intensity as can CMC whereas EC tends to under-estimate tropical storm intensity forecasts. At this stage I'd be sticking with EC ensemble members which have a TC or strong LOW impacting on Boxing day or the 27th December somewhere between Broome and Darwin.

From what little I know, I would tend to agree. I learned some time ago that sticking with the ensembles beyond a few days was the wisest way to go, and that EC was the most accurate in that sense.
For the life of me I cannot remember where that advice came from.
Still, it's game on among the three big long rangers. It will be worthwhile revisiting this predicted scenario in a week's time.