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#1043719 - 15/12/2011 08:29 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: MRF]
Kev86 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/01/2011
Posts: 95










GFS run for around Christmas, as mentioned above.

Still miles out with no support


Edited by Kev86 (15/12/2011 08:31)

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#1043748 - 15/12/2011 09:31 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: Kev86]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4040
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Vanuatu's Area (12S to 23S and 160E to 175E)
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Vanuatu issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 06:00 pm Wednesday, 14 December 2011.

A weak low pressure over north of Vanuatu intensifying slightly later tonight and may move south southwest over the northern and central islands of Vanuatu. The potential for the system to develop further in the next two to three days is low.
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#1044125 - 16/12/2011 00:40 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24716
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
next few days will be interesting to see how the models pan out. GFS as seen above tends to explode with monsoonal developments while access focuses on high pressure ridging with a weak MT forming over far northern climes, and not much action.
EC seems a little more in the middle, weak lows forming across the north but not really doing that much either.
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#1044146 - 16/12/2011 06:39 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: Mick10]
LisaEmld Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2010
Posts: 806
Loc: Emerald
Didn't we have a thread a while ago where everyone could post links to charts and models they use. I have had a look but I must be blind... Can anyone point me in the right direction.

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#1044147 - 16/12/2011 06:44 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: LisaEmld]
Firepac Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 1174
Loc: Proserpine
This one? LINK

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#1044154 - 16/12/2011 07:18 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: Firepac]
LisaEmld Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2010
Posts: 806
Loc: Emerald
That's the one - Thanks firepack. Seem to have lost a heap of my favorites and links so I will go back through and start again. Cheers.

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#1044179 - 16/12/2011 09:04 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: LisaEmld]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4040
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Thursday 15 December 2011

Valid until the end of Sunday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to
develop during the next three days. A weak monsoon trough is expected to develop
over the Arafura Sea during the weekend.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:
Friday: Very low.
Saturday: Very low.
Sunday: Very low.
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#1044356 - 16/12/2011 16:05 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
camshaft Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/12/2010
Posts: 287
Loc: Cairns
Welcome to the wet season! looks like a wet christmas for north qld smile Some fantastic storms brewing off the qld coast, this cyclone season should be interesting!

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#1044490 - 16/12/2011 22:22 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: camshaft]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
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#1044536 - 17/12/2011 00:59 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: boomer]
TC Poncho Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
ACCESS 10 day looks encouraging! ec is backing this up!


Edited by TC Poncho (17/12/2011 01:01)
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#1044543 - 17/12/2011 01:27 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: TC Poncho]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
EC is not backing it up. GFS is all over the place. Access is a drunken combo until it sobers up three days out.
No doubt the possibility is well and truly there... it's too low to deny that.
Something has to break and I would not discount the gulf.
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#1045065 - 17/12/2011 22:37 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: boomer]
TC Poncho Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
dunno what EC your lookin at mate? even the ensemble had a low in the CS at the same time.
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#1045083 - 17/12/2011 23:00 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: TC Poncho]
TC Poncho Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
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#1045424 - 18/12/2011 21:08 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: TC Poncho]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Sorry TC, wasn't there when I looked, clearly is now. Drifting away.
You know mate, I can this season drifting toward last re if a serious threat arises thread wise.
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#1045462 - 18/12/2011 22:06 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Just who is right? Worth following to determine the mega bucks spent on advance forecasting. EC Vs GFS Vs CMC and Christmas Day in Darwin

Latest GFS ensemble has a low on Darwin (and New Caledonia) on Xmas Day.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

Latest EC ensemble has no obvious low near Darwin but does have a low region NW of New Caledonia
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

Latest CMC ensemble has low cat TC to the NE of Darwin (and a lowish area on the Cape)
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0


Latest GFS deterministic (deterministic being far less reliable) has a cat one/two west of Darwin at the same time
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

Latest EC deterministic shows a lowish area NW of Darwin
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

Latest CMC deterministic has Darwin under the influence of a low level TC
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0
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#1045464 - 18/12/2011 22:09 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: boomer]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23525
Loc: Townsville
Good work using the Ensembles guys smile
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#1045477 - 18/12/2011 22:22 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: Dawgggg]
Things Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 8400
Loc: Blair Athol, SA
Hmm, Darwin Darwin and Darwin, hey, looks like Darwin is gonna get something grin

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#1045487 - 18/12/2011 22:41 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: Things]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1576
Loc: Palmerston NT
Yep ran the generator for an hour this arvo just to blow the cobwebs out.. dont want to have cold turkey xmas day even if the roof blows off! wink

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#1045503 - 18/12/2011 23:01 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: JimmyGray]
SunnyDays Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 1615
Loc: Oxley Brisbane Qld
Originally Posted By: pilko65
Yep ran the generator for an hour this arvo just to blow the cobwebs out.. dont want to have cold turkey xmas day even if the roof blows off! wink


Well if it is inevitable you get something, hope it runs out of puff and isn't too bad. Wasn't Cyclone Tracey around the same time from memory as vague as it is at this hour of the night smile
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#1045555 - 19/12/2011 03:19 Re: 2011/12 Tropical Cyclone Lounge [Re: SunnyDays]
TC Poncho Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/01/2010
Posts: 2199
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
the cloud near Darwin looks to be organizing itself as we speak.
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