#1045795 - 19/12/2011 18:51
Victoria Severe Storms December 24th-26th 2011
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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This arvos model runs show a pretty much stationary high pressure cell to remain of SE Aus from tonight to next Sat 24/12/11. There is heaps of moisture about to be pumped into mid coastal Qld over the same period (get-out-clause = "unless a cyclone forms") - this should advect down to Vic arriving Chrismas eve'ish". AccG thinks that hot air to the states NW could create a heat low (my interpretion only) - and GFS seemingly going for a classic seasonal easterly dip scenario. Either way, same result - a large scale low pressure system (1004 hPa) with almost identical ingredients to the system we've just experienced this weekend. Merry Christmas all  
Edited by Lindsay Knowles (31/12/2011 09:15)
Edit Reason: Due to the significance of this event I have changed the title of this event so it will be easier to locate for future reference
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#1045864 - 19/12/2011 22:36
Re: Vic - another low pressure system 26-28/12/11
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 2/02/2011
Loc: Melbourne, Corryong, Canberra,...
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Seasons Greetings Petros! Was anticipating a warm to hot, dry December 25 2011, but it seems that the 2011-2012 Storm Season might be having the final say on what we'll be getting for a Christmas present... current Bureau of Meteorology forecast for the next 7 days for Melbourne looks a bit like this... Tuesday December 20 - Cloudy, morning shower or two, 15-23C Wednesday December 21 - Partly cloudy, 14-25C Thursday December 22 - Sunny, 14-29C Friday December 23 - Mostly sunny, possible afternoon & evening showers & thunderstorms to the northeast, 17-31C Saturday December 24 - Humid & mostly sunny, possible afternoon & evening showers & thunderstorms to the northeast, 18-31C Sunday December 25 - Humid, afternoon & evening showers & thunderstorms developing, 19-32C Monday December 26 - Cloudy with patchy rain, afternoon & evening thunderstorms, 20-26C In case I forget, a Merry Christmas to you all!
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Best storms: 2003 (JAN 8, DEC 2-3); 2004 (JAN 21); 2005 (JAN 20); 2006 (JAN 26); 2007 (SEPT 27, DEC 20); 2008 (JAN 11-12); 2009 (JAN 22, NOV 26); 2010 (FEB 11, MAR 6, DEC 4 & 8); 2011 (JAN 21-22, FEB 4-5, SEPT 28, NOV 9, DEC 24-25); 2012 (JAN 11, FEB 16)
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#1045875 - 19/12/2011 23:07
Re: Vic - another low pressure system 26-28/12/11
[Re: aussiestormfreak]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 12/09/2011
Loc: Stewarton
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Can anyone tell me what the red line actually means or indicates on the model above that Petros posted?
Yeah I know, I need to ask Santa for that "weather for Dummies book". lol
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#1045887 - 19/12/2011 23:42
Re: Vic - another low pressure system 26-28/12/11
[Re: thunderunder]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
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Petros ,
Whilst there is a fair chance of Two TC's or at very least Monsoon Trough associated LLCC or a subtropical system . I wouldn't put ANY faith in the Models Going forward than 3 days .
Not to be Negative person , but one is Bad enough for Forecast accuracy , two is bedlum ? .
Regardless , It would be safe to say we'll see two systems in the next two weeks .
Either way , it would be fair to say that this Nina will finally start porducing something in the way of Heavy widespread falls . Where exactly is anyones' guess.
_________________________
Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "
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#1045908 - 20/12/2011 06:20
Re: Vic - another low pressure system 26-28/12/11
[Re: Southern Oracle]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/01/2011
Loc: Donvale
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As SC mentioned, so many twists and turns will eventuate over the next 72 hours, however I am pleased that GFS is maintaining the high levels of instability and moisture. Projected rainfall totals are irrelevant at the moment, just ask Halls Gap, I am excited about the available moisture that will be available to be tapped in. Media agencies are very keen to tell us that we will have a dry, hot Christmas Day, which may be correct between 6am & 2pm, however should the potential of severe storms eventuate, it will make for an interesting commute. Will hold fire from making any outlandish predictions until later tomorrow, but things look juicy for a Santa storm chase! 
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#1046159 - 20/12/2011 18:21
Re: Vic - another low pressure system 26-28/12/11
[Re: thunderunder]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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Can anyone tell me what the red line actually means or indicates on the model above that Petros posted?
Yeah I know, I need to ask Santa for that "weather for Dummies book". lol
TU - its the "hotish" air line for the mid levels (850 hPa from recollection) - if we are under it in a dry air scenario look out bushfirewise. Its alterego is the blue "coldish" upper airline - in winter you can get snow under it over the ranges. Then theres the uba-cold purple line, in winter it'll snow to <600M under it and cut-off lows are a big chance (like they also would be if the blue line happend to interact with the moist air arriving here this weekend  .
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#1046262 - 21/12/2011 00:11
Re: Vic - another low pressure system 26-28/12/11
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
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Couldnt agree more SO - moreso now given some models have THREE concurrent cyclones on the go into early next week. Hate to die and come back as a computer weather model and try to hash somekind of forecast under those conditions. And Bulos, the BIG commute (at least for us out E) is the Boxing Day exodous through Gippsland. Image the bedlam if this AccG scenario played out!   Petros , This image wreaks of the possible " WeatherBomb ' I posted in the Marine thread . " Sydney to Hobart could do without !!? Not too mention the Gippsland Exodus .
_________________________
Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "
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#1046293 - 21/12/2011 06:29
Re: Vic - another low pressure system 26-28/12/11
[Re: Petros]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 3/08/2005
Loc: West Footscray VIC, we can mis...
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Progressive? - what do you mean by that Ruckle? - and yeah, a very interesting Christmas arvo maybe for most in Vic?!! The early model runs (say just before this thread start date) hinted at a trough that was sitting over central parts and meandering back and forth till beyond boxing day when a mega low would form. The run last night was more "progressive" in that the trough was through central parts by Christmas morning - alot quicker than previously (the pm storm for us forecast would not occur with that scenario) The trough then hangs out east potentially piling up some totals. As for this morning GFS has decided to create a low in the trough on Christmas day and hold things up a little, could be getting very wet out east with that one... EC has storm chance central parts Saturday (as GFS does) and then maybe early rain in central parts on Christmas day before the action settles out east for Christmas day and potentially boxing day in a big way as alluded to above.
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#1046339 - 21/12/2011 09:56
Re: Vic - another low pressure system 26-28/12/11
[Re: Ruckle]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 30/12/2002
Loc: Inverloch Vic
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Oh you meant it looked to be moving through quicker than earlier progged Ruckle - (I probably would have posted it the same way!). Not only GFS, but AccG is looking at a cut off low for Christmas Day evening as well. Both models track the low SSE along the E coast of Tassie. However CMC keeps Vic dry with the low to form S of Tassie. That aforementioned cyclone off Qld E looks to be named as Fina by this time tomorrow so another spanner into the works (you can see the lack of moisture tracking into Qld Snday on the chart below). Heres AccG's latest: 
Edited by Petros (21/12/2011 10:02)
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#1046519 - 21/12/2011 18:46
Re: Vic - another low pressure system 26-28/12/11
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 18/01/2011
Loc: Taylors Hill
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So looking at the models you guys have posted, is it safe to presume the wet stuff will be more east and leave us in Melbourne with less totals for Christmas and Boxing day ? I am just a bit confused with the Green blob on the map can't work out if it more west than central. Just the outline on the map is a bit confusing.
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#1046568 - 21/12/2011 21:19
Re: Vic - another low pressure system 26-28/12/11
[Re: Petros]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 16/08/2011
Loc: Traralgon, Victoria
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Hoping for our first stormy christmas day out in gippsland since about 1998 I reckon Petros!
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#1046624 - 21/12/2011 23:57
Re: Vic - another low pressure system 26-28/12/11
[Re: Ruckle]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 2/02/2011
Loc: Melbourne, Corryong, Canberra,...
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Oh yeah! That is one angry cluster of thunderstorms boiling along the Murray River near Albury/Wodonga atm, would love to be up there (can't wait to head to Northeast Victoria and Southeast NSW and the ACT in January with my family and my Fijian girlfriend) Looking forward to the possibly of lightning and torrential rains on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day
Edited by aussie tornado (22/12/2011 00:00)
_________________________
Best storms: 2003 (JAN 8, DEC 2-3); 2004 (JAN 21); 2005 (JAN 20); 2006 (JAN 26); 2007 (SEPT 27, DEC 20); 2008 (JAN 11-12); 2009 (JAN 22, NOV 26); 2010 (FEB 11, MAR 6, DEC 4 & 8); 2011 (JAN 21-22, FEB 4-5, SEPT 28, NOV 9, DEC 24-25); 2012 (JAN 11, FEB 16)
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