I give this pages one more chance.

Hopefully thye will left it's open for this developing Tropical low.

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE Brisbane
AT 1904UTC 20 DECEMBER 2011

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 60 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal one south (14.1S)
longitude one hundred and fifty five decimal seven east (155.7E)
Recent movement : east southeast at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 1000 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 18
hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST

Maximum winds to 25 knots near the centre increasing to 35 knots by 1800 UTC 21
December with rough to very rough seas and low to moderate swells developing.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 21 December: Within 90 nautical miles of 15.2 south 156.2 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 21 December: Within 120 nautical miles of 16.3 south 156.5 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 21 December 2011.

WEATHER Brisbane

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by Brisbane TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1918 UTC 20/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.1S
Longitude: 155.7E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [112 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12:
+24: 21/1800: 16.3S 156.5E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 996
+36: 22/0600: 17.5S 156.9E: 150 [280]: 050 [095]: 987
+48: 22/1800: 18.4S 156.7E: 185 [345]: 060 [110]: 978
+60: 23/0600: 19.4S 156.8E: 230 [430]: 050 [095]: 984
+72: 23/1800: 19.9S 157.4E: 280 [520]: 035 [065]: 995
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.3 degree wrap, giving DT
of 2.0. MT and PT agree. FT based on MT as DT is not clear.

Organisation has improved slightly and convection has consolidated in the
vicinity of the low in the last 24 hours. The low appears to be in a favourable
environment for development with low wind shear and sea surface temperatures
around 30 degrees.

However, an upper trough is expected to amplify across eastern Australia on
Thursday, which will increase the wind shear across the low into Friday. The
increase in the wind shear is likely to hinder development from Friday onwards,
though computer model guidance indicates that intensification may still occur
while the system possibly undergoes extra tropical transition.




Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

WTPS21 PGTW 202130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 155.2E TO 18.0S 157.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 202030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.1S 155.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
154.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 155.7E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201747Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED,
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE LLCC. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP ALSO INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DISTINCT DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE. RECENT
SCATTEROMETERY DATA SUPPORTS A STRENGTHENING LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT
WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, SHIP OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM SUPPORT THE LLCC POSITION AND INTENSITY ASSESSMENTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DIFFLUENCE OVER THE LLCC WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212130Z.

Its surving the sheer, for now ! Sat loop shows slow movement to the SSE

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

I think it has it sights set on NZ holiday. But then I haven't been right predicting a path in 5 years.

.

That's because it is currently in a low vertical wind shear environment.

Correct! the sheer is moving away from the low.. hmmm further south it will be in trouble.





Will this have an affect on the steering of this system 700 - 850mb ?

Can anyone tell me when the next tech bulletin is due? (ie, what is our UTC time?)
Cheers

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by Brisbane TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2308 UTC 20/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.1S
Longitude: 155.7E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [112 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/0600: 15.2S 156.2E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 997
+24: 21/1800: 16.3S 156.5E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 996
+36: 22/0600: 17.5S 156.9E: 150 [280]: 050 [095]: 987
+48: 22/1800: 18.4S 156.7E: 185 [345]: 060 [110]: 978
+60: 23/0600: 19.4S 156.8E: 230 [430]: 050 [095]: 984
+72: 23/1800: 19.9S 157.4E: 280 [520]: 035 [065]: 995
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.3 degree wrap, giving DT
of 2.0. MT and PT agree. FT based on MT as DT is not clear.

Organisation has improved slightly and convection has consolidated in the
vicinity of the low in the last 24 hours. The low appears to be in a favourable
environment for development with low wind shear and sea surface temperatures
around 30 degrees.

However, an upper trough is expected to amplify across eastern Australia on
Thursday, which will increase the wind shear across the low into Friday. The
increase in the wind shear is likely to hinder development from Friday onwards,
though computer model guidance indicates that intensification may still occur
while the system possibly undergoes extra tropical transition.




Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

Well the courier mail has picked this up this morning:

Courier Mail Article

Also, the cyclone outloook (3 day)

IDQ10810

UPDATED
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea Issued at 6:01pm EST on Tuesday the 20th of December 2011 and valid until end of Friday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A low situated southeast of Papua New Guinea is moving in a south-southeasterly direction and is expected to develop further over the next couple of days. The system is then forecast to turn southeast, away from the Queensland coast, later in the week. On current forecasts no direct impact is expected along the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Wednesday:High
Thursday: High
Friday: High

is that the Bureau covering their butts if this low actually does reach land ???? lol

UTC/GMT is 10 hours behind.

So UTC time at 1100hrs would be 0100hrs or 10 hours less than current local time for Queensland.

For daylight saving time zones add the hour or whatever they use so NSW/Vic/Tas SA whatever it is they have. it is currently 12.08 so UTC would be 0208hrs.

Thanks SBT - much appreciated

also assuming it's the next cyclone to form (and it does form of course) - if courier mail are right - this will be known as "Tropical Cyclone Fina".

Next bulletin will be at 1700hrs (5.00PM) Queensland time if that helps Raincheck.

Yes the next name on the Cyclone Llist is Fina. http://reg.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/names.shtml

Yep - figured that out!

up to f's already.

SBT, tech bulletins are issed every six hours, here is the latest issued at 10.54am EST:


TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by Brisbane TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0054 UTC 21/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.0S
Longitude: 156.6E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [129 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [16 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/1200: 16.3S 157.0E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 996
+24: 22/0000: 17.6S 157.4E: 120 [220]: 045 [085]: 988
+36: 22/1200: 18.6S 157.6E: 150 [280]: 060 [110]: 977
+48: 23/0000: 19.7S 157.4E: 185 [345]: 050 [095]: 985
+60: 23/1200: 20.4S 157.8E: 230 [430]: 040 [075]: 991
+72: 24/0000: 20.5S 158.7E: 280 [520]: 040 [075]: 991
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.3 degree wrap, giving DT
of 2.0. MT and PT give 2.5. FT based on MT as DT is not clear.



Note the tracking is is almost due south for TAU 60hours before a steady turn to the SE.

unless she forms into a cyclone before then of course... then i'd say a new warning will be issued.

For visitors who want more information about how, when and where cyclone warnings are issued.



http://www.bom.gov.au/catalogue/warnings/WarningsInformation_TC_Advice.shtml
Introduction
Tropical Cyclone Advices are issued whenever a tropical cyclone is expected to cause winds in excess of 62km/h (gale force) over land in Australia*. A tropical cyclone advice may be a watch and/or a warning, depending on when and where the gales are expected to develop.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
When is a Tropical Cyclone Advice Issued?
A tropical cyclone watch is issued for coastal communities when the onset of gales is expected within 48 hours, but not within 24 hours.
A tropical cyclone warning is issued for coastal communities when the onset of gales is expected within 24 hours, or are already occurring
Each advice issued for a particular cyclone will be numbered sequentially, starting at number 1 for the first advice. A tropical cyclone advice may contain a combined watch and warning, that is it will provide information on the area under watch status and the area under warning status
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
How often is a Tropical Cyclone Advice issued?
While the threat remains, a tropical cyclone advice will be issued every six hours, increasing to every three hours when cyclone warnings are required. In some circumstances, when a cyclone approaching the coast is under radar surveillance, the advices may be issued hourly.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What information is included in the Tropical Cyclone Advice?
Each Tropical Cyclone Advice will consist of the following information:

The area covered by a cyclone watch and area covered by a cyclone warning
The cyclone name
The intensity category of the cyclone (1-weak to 5-strong)
The latest observed location of the cyclone centre
The central pressure of the cyclone (warning only)
The distance of the cyclone to significant locations
The expected or recent movement of the cyclone
Range of destructive winds
Maximum wind gusts
Advisory statements on actions to be taken to mitigate the effects of the cyclone (note this is issued separately for the NT and Kimberley)
The issue time for the next warning
Usually, each advice will have an associated threat map issued.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Who is the target audience of Tropical Cyclone Advices?
All land based communities in the threat zone.
Note that separate marine warnings will be issued, and all mariners should refer to these warnings for relevant information.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Where are Tropical Cyclone Advices Issued?
Tropical Cyclone Advices are issued by Regional Offices of the Bureau of Meteorology in Brisbane, Darwin or Perth, depending on the location of the cyclone: