I give this pages one more chance.

Hopefully thye will left it's open for this developing Tropical low.

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE Brisbane
AT 1904UTC 20 DECEMBER 2011

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 60 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal one south (14.1S)
longitude one hundred and fifty five decimal seven east (155.7E)
Recent movement : east southeast at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 1000 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 18
hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST

Maximum winds to 25 knots near the centre increasing to 35 knots by 1800 UTC 21
December with rough to very rough seas and low to moderate swells developing.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 21 December: Within 90 nautical miles of 15.2 south 156.2 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 21 December: Within 120 nautical miles of 16.3 south 156.5 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 21 December 2011.

WEATHER Brisbane

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by Brisbane TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1918 UTC 20/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.1S
Longitude: 155.7E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [112 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12:
+24: 21/1800: 16.3S 156.5E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 996
+36: 22/0600: 17.5S 156.9E: 150 [280]: 050 [095]: 987
+48: 22/1800: 18.4S 156.7E: 185 [345]: 060 [110]: 978
+60: 23/0600: 19.4S 156.8E: 230 [430]: 050 [095]: 984
+72: 23/1800: 19.9S 157.4E: 280 [520]: 035 [065]: 995
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.3 degree wrap, giving DT
of 2.0. MT and PT agree. FT based on MT as DT is not clear.

Organisation has improved slightly and convection has consolidated in the
vicinity of the low in the last 24 hours. The low appears to be in a favourable
environment for development with low wind shear and sea surface temperatures
around 30 degrees.

However, an upper trough is expected to amplify across eastern Australia on
Thursday, which will increase the wind shear across the low into Friday. The
increase in the wind shear is likely to hinder development from Friday onwards,
though computer model guidance indicates that intensification may still occur
while the system possibly undergoes extra tropical transition.




Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

WTPS21 PGTW 202130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 155.2E TO 18.0S 157.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 202030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.1S 155.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
154.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 155.7E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201747Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED,
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE LLCC. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP ALSO INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DISTINCT DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE. RECENT
SCATTEROMETERY DATA SUPPORTS A STRENGTHENING LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT
WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, SHIP OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM SUPPORT THE LLCC POSITION AND INTENSITY ASSESSMENTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DIFFLUENCE OVER THE LLCC WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212130Z.

Its surving the sheer, for now ! Sat loop shows slow movement to the SSE

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

I think it has it sights set on NZ holiday. But then I haven't been right predicting a path in 5 years.

.

That's because it is currently in a low vertical wind shear environment.

Correct! the sheer is moving away from the low.. hmmm further south it will be in trouble.





Will this have an affect on the steering of this system 700 - 850mb ?

Can anyone tell me when the next tech bulletin is due? (ie, what is our UTC time?)
Cheers

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by Brisbane TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2308 UTC 20/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.1S
Longitude: 155.7E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [112 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/0600: 15.2S 156.2E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 997
+24: 21/1800: 16.3S 156.5E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 996
+36: 22/0600: 17.5S 156.9E: 150 [280]: 050 [095]: 987
+48: 22/1800: 18.4S 156.7E: 185 [345]: 060 [110]: 978
+60: 23/0600: 19.4S 156.8E: 230 [430]: 050 [095]: 984
+72: 23/1800: 19.9S 157.4E: 280 [520]: 035 [065]: 995
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.3 degree wrap, giving DT
of 2.0. MT and PT agree. FT based on MT as DT is not clear.

Organisation has improved slightly and convection has consolidated in the
vicinity of the low in the last 24 hours. The low appears to be in a favourable
environment for development with low wind shear and sea surface temperatures
around 30 degrees.

However, an upper trough is expected to amplify across eastern Australia on
Thursday, which will increase the wind shear across the low into Friday. The
increase in the wind shear is likely to hinder development from Friday onwards,
though computer model guidance indicates that intensification may still occur
while the system possibly undergoes extra tropical transition.




Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

Well the courier mail has picked this up this morning:

Courier Mail Article

Also, the cyclone outloook (3 day)

IDQ10810

UPDATED
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea Issued at 6:01pm EST on Tuesday the 20th of December 2011 and valid until end of Friday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A low situated southeast of Papua New Guinea is moving in a south-southeasterly direction and is expected to develop further over the next couple of days. The system is then forecast to turn southeast, away from the Queensland coast, later in the week. On current forecasts no direct impact is expected along the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Wednesday:High
Thursday: High
Friday: High

is that the Bureau covering their butts if this low actually does reach land ???? lol

UTC/GMT is 10 hours behind.

So UTC time at 1100hrs would be 0100hrs or 10 hours less than current local time for Queensland.

For daylight saving time zones add the hour or whatever they use so NSW/Vic/Tas SA whatever it is they have. it is currently 12.08 so UTC would be 0208hrs.

Thanks SBT - much appreciated

also assuming it's the next cyclone to form (and it does form of course) - if courier mail are right - this will be known as "Tropical Cyclone Fina".

Next bulletin will be at 1700hrs (5.00PM) Queensland time if that helps Raincheck.

Yes the next name on the Cyclone Llist is Fina. http://reg.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/names.shtml

Yep - figured that out!

up to f's already.

SBT, tech bulletins are issed every six hours, here is the latest issued at 10.54am EST:


TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by Brisbane TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0054 UTC 21/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.0S
Longitude: 156.6E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [129 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [16 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/1200: 16.3S 157.0E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 996
+24: 22/0000: 17.6S 157.4E: 120 [220]: 045 [085]: 988
+36: 22/1200: 18.6S 157.6E: 150 [280]: 060 [110]: 977
+48: 23/0000: 19.7S 157.4E: 185 [345]: 050 [095]: 985
+60: 23/1200: 20.4S 157.8E: 230 [430]: 040 [075]: 991
+72: 24/0000: 20.5S 158.7E: 280 [520]: 040 [075]: 991
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.3 degree wrap, giving DT
of 2.0. MT and PT give 2.5. FT based on MT as DT is not clear.



Note the tracking is is almost due south for TAU 60hours before a steady turn to the SE.

unless she forms into a cyclone before then of course... then i'd say a new warning will be issued.

For visitors who want more information about how, when and where cyclone warnings are issued.



http://www.bom.gov.au/catalogue/warnings/WarningsInformation_TC_Advice.shtml
Introduction
Tropical Cyclone Advices are issued whenever a tropical cyclone is expected to cause winds in excess of 62km/h (gale force) over land in Australia*. A tropical cyclone advice may be a watch and/or a warning, depending on when and where the gales are expected to develop.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
When is a Tropical Cyclone Advice Issued?
A tropical cyclone watch is issued for coastal communities when the onset of gales is expected within 48 hours, but not within 24 hours.
A tropical cyclone warning is issued for coastal communities when the onset of gales is expected within 24 hours, or are already occurring
Each advice issued for a particular cyclone will be numbered sequentially, starting at number 1 for the first advice. A tropical cyclone advice may contain a combined watch and warning, that is it will provide information on the area under watch status and the area under warning status
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
How often is a Tropical Cyclone Advice issued?
While the threat remains, a tropical cyclone advice will be issued every six hours, increasing to every three hours when cyclone warnings are required. In some circumstances, when a cyclone approaching the coast is under radar surveillance, the advices may be issued hourly.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What information is included in the Tropical Cyclone Advice?
Each Tropical Cyclone Advice will consist of the following information:

The area covered by a cyclone watch and area covered by a cyclone warning
The cyclone name
The intensity category of the cyclone (1-weak to 5-strong)
The latest observed location of the cyclone centre
The central pressure of the cyclone (warning only)
The distance of the cyclone to significant locations
The expected or recent movement of the cyclone
Range of destructive winds
Maximum wind gusts
Advisory statements on actions to be taken to mitigate the effects of the cyclone (note this is issued separately for the NT and Kimberley)
The issue time for the next warning
Usually, each advice will have an associated threat map issued.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Who is the target audience of Tropical Cyclone Advices?
All land based communities in the threat zone.
Note that separate marine warnings will be issued, and all mariners should refer to these warnings for relevant information.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Where are Tropical Cyclone Advices Issued?
Tropical Cyclone Advices are issued by Regional Offices of the Bureau of Meteorology in Brisbane, Darwin or Perth, depending on the location of the cyclone:

i dont see how its gonna go as close as some models predict, to me it seems to be heading south east already, but is intensifying nicely. will the bom put out track maps?

Good thinking SBT

If we get more model indications of a cyclone hitting karumba in the gulf like gfs has today, then we may be going to karumba on Monday

Whoops wrong thread

PMSL Was about to PM you to ask what you were going to do TD

Yes that is correct, unless the NT cyclone beats it to develop sooner.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/names.shtml

I was waiting for someone to be tricked by that optical illusion of the mid-level flow. Look at the visible loop and you will see that the LLCC is moving due south albeit slowly. Once convection starts to consolidate and wrap around it, the tracking will become more evident.

visible loop

Nice image on this link:

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/smallc.html?area=4&element=0&mode=UTC

The latest from the BOM.
Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Wednesday the 21st of December 2011 and valid until end
of Saturday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A low situated in the northern Coral Sea is moving in a south-southeasterly
direction and is expected to develop slowly over the next 24 hours. The system
is then forecast to turn southeast, further away from the Queensland coast, late
Friday. During Saturday, the system is likely to continue moving southeast and
transition to an extra-tropical low. On current forecasts no direct impact is
expected along the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Thursday: High
Friday: High
Saturday: Moderate

its looking quite broken at the moment. looks like crap actually, lol

Was thinking the same, doesn't look very organised at all. Have a look at the top of the NT, now that bugger is starting to get a serious wiggle on.

Latest Techical Bulletin

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by Brisbane TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0650 UTC 21/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.1S
Longitude: 157.1E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [141 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [21 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1001 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/1800: 17.4S 157.3E: 080 [150]: 035 [065]: 997
+24: 22/0600: 18.6S 157.1E: 110 [205]: 040 [075]: 994
+36: 22/1800: 19.8S 156.7E: 140 [265]: 040 [075]: 994
+48: 23/0600: 20.9S 156.8E: 175 [325]: 035 [065]: 996
+60: 23/1800: 21.2S 157.7E: 220 [410]: 030 [055]: 999
+72: 24/0600: 21.2S 159.0E: 270 [500]: 030 [055]: 999
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.35 degree wrap, giving DT
of 2.0. MT and PT give 2.0. FT based on MT as DT is not clear. CI held at 2.5.

Overnight convection has sheared off with persistent convection remaining lear
the LLCC. CIMSS analysing 20 knots of shear over the system which is likely the
cause for lack of development. Models hinting at similar shear for the next
36-48 hours. Slow development is still considered likely over this period with
inflow/outflow favourable.

An upper trough is expected to amplify across eastern Australia on Thursday,
which will increase the wind shear across the low into Friday. The increase in
the wind shear is likely to steer the system east-southeast and hinder
development from Friday onwards. Computer model guidance indicates that
intensification due to extra-tropical transition may occur over this period.

I'm not so sure this ones going to make it to TC status. Conditions are certainly not going to get better for it.

Looks terrible on the MTSAT, Now its got to be the NT/GOC System,

Thank you 28 storms great to have you and your knowledge on board.

notice for a very brief period, the system is expected to make a slight southwest wards turn. then back to to the east rather quickly of course.

28storms thank you for your very informative post regarding these systems

Not far off being named.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by Brisbane TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1238 UTC 21/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 17.1S
Longitude: 157.4E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [160 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [21 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm [405 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 22/0000: 18.3S 157.4E: 080 [150]: 035 [065]: 997
+24: 22/1200: 19.3S 157.0E: 110 [205]: 040 [075]: 993
+36: 23/0000: 20.7S 156.7E: 145 [265]: 030 [055]: 996
+48: 23/1200: 21.4S 157.2E: 175 [325]: 030 [055]: 998
+60: 24/0000: 21.5S 158.5E: 225 [415]: 030 [055]: 999
+72: 24/1200: 21.4S 159.7E: 270 [500]: 030 [055]: 999
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis FT 2.5 based on MET and PAT.

Persistent convection this afternoon has increased over the last few hours,
probably coincident with a decrease in shear from CIMSS to between 10 and 20
knots. 0806UTC TMI 37GHz image shows reasonable banding and organisation in the
low levels. Good outflow to the southeast with northwest shear still over the
system. Models hinting at similar shear for the next 36-48 hours. Slow
development is forecast over this period and the system is considered likely to
become a tropical cyclone on Thursday morning.

An upper trough is expected to amplify across eastern Australia on Thursday,
which will increase the wind shear across the low into Friday. The increase in
the wind shear is likely to steer the system east-southeast and hinder tropical
development from Friday onwards. Computer model guidance indicates that
intensification due to extra-tropical transition may occur over this period.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

Really love watching those 28storm updates , the video and explanations together , make it so much easier to understand

@P.K. it has been looking a lot healthier over the last few hours. Can finally see some small banding from N to E quadrants:)

www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

Starting to get a nice little rotation going

I could stare at it for hours, rekon we'll have a wet Christmas

Here's a map of the low/cyclone's track over the next 3 days based on the BOM's technical bulletin:
CLICK HERE

thanks PV. I wonder why they have created a official one for the NT but not the CS? Is it because its not expected to come near the coast?

Its on the move now too:)

Homesick - that may yet happen.. though we shouldn't laugh at CMC - one of these days it will be right... lol

any for what it's worth here is CMC on christmas eve (using the latest run)

And here's another one I've chucked together showing the predicted low/cyclone locations for Australian waters from the CMC, GFS and ECWMF computer models.
CMC is represented in Green.
CMC ensemble is represented in Light Green.
GFS is represented in Blue.
GFS ensemble is represented in Light Blue.
ECMWF is represented in Red.
ECMWF ensemble is represented in Light Red.

I've made this to make it easier to compare the model's and show any consistencies better. Feel free to click on any of the lines for more information about the model and outlook period. I'll try and keep this updated as often as possible.

CLICK HERE!!

Appears this was named at 15Z as this is all that is out so far with the name on it.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:11 am EST on Thursday 22 December 2011
At 1 am EST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Fina (Category 1) with central pressure
996 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 17.5 south longitude 157.2
east, which is about 1110 km east of Townsville and 940 km east northeast of
Mackay.

The cyclone is moving south at about 18 kilometres per hour and should
gradually weaken over the next 12 hours.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FINA, CATEGORY 1, is expected to maintain a
south-southwesterly track during Thursday while weakening into this evening.
Tropical Cyclone Fina is not expected to directly affect the Queensland coast.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 am EST today.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by Brisbane TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1831 UTC 21/12/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Fina
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1500 UTC
Latitude: 17.5S
Longitude: 157.2E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: south [170 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [18 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 270 nm [500 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 22/0300: 18.6S 156.5E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 994
+24: 22/1500: 19.5S 156.0E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 999
+36: 23/0300: 20.8S 155.9E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 998
+48: 23/1500: 21.6S 156.5E: 185 [345]: 030 [055]: 998
+60: 24/0300: 21.8S 158.1E: 230 [430]: 030 [055]: 999
+72: 24/1500: 21.9S 159.7E: 280 [520]: 030 [055]: 997
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a shear pattern with less than 0.5 degree separation
between the estimated location of the low level centre and the dense overcast,
giving DT of 3.0. MT and PT suggest 2.5. FT based on DT and supporting ASCAT
wind observations at 1127UTC.

Increasing shear has begun to impact on Tropical Cyclone Fina due to an
amplifying upper trough across eastern Australia. This increasing shear is
expected to continue impacting on Fina as it moves in a southerly direction and
should limit any further development. However, computer model guidance indicates
that intensification could still be possible due to extra-tropical transition
that may occur into Friday. Gale force winds are possible on Friday as this
transition occurs and a surge of southeasterly winds feed into the south of the
system.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

I’m surprise the system has been named. The cyclone is highly sheared as the Low Level Circulation Centre (LLCC) is fully exposed with all the convection located to the east. I’d expect the cyclone status to be removed by the next update.....

I believe the reason this system was named was because there were/are gales around at least half the system.

And here I was thinking it required 34kt winds in all quadrants to be named. I know I should be happy considering we got the first but this is just a little embarrasing. Gonna give Popeye more ammo againt Coral sea cyclones.

A tropical cyclone is defined as a non-frontal low pressure system of synoptic scale developing over warm waters having organised convection and a maximum mean wind speed of 34 knots or greater extending more than half-way around near the centre and persisting for at least six hours.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/faq/index.shtml#definitions

Question is, did it last 6 hours?

Thanks PV Weather! Great to compare predictions in one chart.

I don't think anything much will happen with this low ( i have always classed it as one) BUT why am i seeing some charts having it very closs to fraser island or central qld ? But the bom make no mention of it. Da, the bom must be right

From memory the BoM changed the rule a couple of years back. It was that before they changed it to more than half way round the centre.

Fina is the second cyclone for the season. TC Alunga in WA was the first.

Thankfully WZ members aren't resposible for making the decision if a cyclone has formed or not so no one has anything to be embarrased about. It is the BoM's call not ours.

God can you imagine how many cyclones we would have a year if Matthew was responsible for making the decisions of if a cyclone has formed or not?

Models are keeping the low pressure system well off the coast over the next 3 days at least.
See http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

It is indeed interesting. 2 models (access and Cmc put this cyclone / low off the tip of Fraser sometime Friday. Gfs and ec keep this storm off the coast. It is interesting the Cmc and access show a stronger storm than gfs or ec. Suspect access and Cmc are saying the impact of the shear won't be noticed until a bit later. Hence it gets closer and stronger?

EDIT - in saying that BOM's forecast thinks it closer to gfs or ec at the moment. Hence way off the coast. Interesting the 4 main models are split down the middle on where this is going.

Cyclone Fina latest track map: http://reg.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

Can someone explain to me , why there are now predicting a south -westernly turn , after a few days stating it was definetly going to go south -east ?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

This thing is going SW, look at the LLCC not the storms around it, if it continues this track it will weaken and hit SE QLD as rain depression.

Its sitting in 20 - 30 knots of sheer.

Fina is completely sheared atm with the LLCC exposed, or she's been stripped of her cloud cover and her underwear is showing. She is not long for this tropical world and will undergo extra-tropical transition over the coming days, yet ex-Fina will still pack a punch as a formidable low giving us down here an impressive swell over Christmas and Boxing Day.

Hey mate i'll take a guess at this..

cyclone steering is affected by low, mid , high level winds or steering layer.. now if you look at the current steering layer winds if this cyclone was alot more intense say cat 3, it will be gone off to the SE as it will get caught up in the 200mb - 450mb steering winds.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=dlm6&zoom=&time=


How ever now that the storm is getting sheered its pulling the high level cloud tops off the Low level circulating center (LLCC)the 500 - 850mb steering winds are shooting it to the SW/WSW

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=

Im sure someone can correct or add to this...

The latest JTWC advisory sums up what is happening perfectly:

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6S
157.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 156.5E, APPROXIMATELY 610 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. THIS AREA USED TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (HIGH). HOWEVER, RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM EAST OF
THE LLCC. RECENT UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS APPROXIMATELY 30-KNOTS
OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD INTO A SHARP GRADIENT OF STRONGER VWS
AS IT APPROACHES UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONTINUED
SOUTHWARD TRACK INTO THE VERY STRONG (40-KNOTS) WESTERLY VWS.
ADDITIONALLY, A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD PROPAGATE THROUGH
THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 48-HOURS AND TAKE THE LLCC INTO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.

EDIT: If you read the above in conjunction with the image that Yassified has just posted, it will put this into perspective.

More than halfway round the centre is indeed the rule. It's also not unknown for a named cyclone to be downgraded (or an unnamed one to be upgraded) in post-season analysis.

It is rare for a named storm to be downgraded to one which wouldn't be named though. I can only recall one agency doing this the last few years and that was the BoM.

The vis images don't exactly look great now! http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc12/SH...1565E.100pc.jpg

Thanks for that clarification Blair. Personally, I fully agree with the revised rule as it stands. Most of the damaging winds from a TC are in the southern quadrants in our part of the world and can significantly impact on coastal areas. Naming a system in such instances helps raise awareness of its existence, and, indeed, the dangers imposed by such an existence.

I would suggest as far as the movement goes, with the LLCC pretty much decoupled from the high level clouds, the upper level winds will have far less potential to influence on what is happening at surface level.

With a stronger system where TC is more like a singular column of water vapour, any force on the top part of the system is more easily transferred to the whole of the water vapour column.

Definitely looking like a SW movement of the LLCC at the moment on 1km vis.

will be interesting to see if it has one last go at intensification this afternoon with the diurnal max and increased outflow in the eastern quadrant back towards the trough due to the upper westerlies.

I cant see any possible way that convection will be able to wrap back around the LLCC with the amount of westerly shear in the upper levels.

BOM seem to be keeping their options open.

Dvorak analysis based on a shear pattern with approximately 2 degrees of
separation between the low level centre and the dense overcast, giving DT of
1.0. MT and PT agree. FT based on Dvorak rules.

Increasing shear began impacting on Tropical Cyclone Fina overnight due to an
amplifying upper trough across eastern Australia. This increasing shear is
expected to continue impacting on Fina as it moves in a southwesterly direction
and should limit any further development. However, computer model guidance
indicates that reintensification and gale force winds are likely during Friday
as the system begins to interact with a firm ridge of high pressure situated
across the southern Coral Sea.

yeah, that previous convection is stuffed. I was meaning increased new development due to amplified upper outflow from the westerly toward the trough in the tropics.

Latest track map.

looking at the sat loop, shear seems to be easing over the southern side of Fina, with new cloud build up and no shearing pattern in the cloud. Still, you can see the approaching trough over QLD coming pretty quick, will swat her by tomorrow I would say.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

Have a look at the latest 1km Vis

http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.html?region=coralsea&loop=no&images=&allday=&start=&stop=#nav

You can see a big blob of convection still displaced to the SE of the LLCC. Still obviously undergoing a significant amount of shear.

yeah, the bom said that was from lastnights increase.

Interesting, there is a fresh burst of convection just to the south of the LLCC with a new plume appearing. However, whatever new signs of life, like Desdemona in Othello, it will be short-lived.

HAHA. *AHHHH CHOOOW - SNEEZE* Ahh missed it.

I dont think Ihave ever seen a 'TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NUMBER 1' Which also has 'NO FURTHER NOTICES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM' all in the one update.

No further comments lol. HAHAHA. Anyway plenty of time for all WA, QLD and especially NT to see some extreme weather events unfold. Stay safe especially those in the NT over the next week.

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:40pm EST on Thursday the 22nd of December 2011 and valid until end
of Sunday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Fina remains in the central Coral Sea and is currently
moving south-southwest. This system may redevelop as an extra-tropical low on
Friday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Friday: Very Low
Saturday: Very Low
Sunday: Very Low

Potential Cyclones:
There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to
develop over the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Friday: Very low
Saturday: Very low
Sunday: Very low

Poor Fina ! Going through some tough conditions!

The center of the LLCC is becoming bigger is this because its getting weaker?

Typically, yes, as it gets weaker the LLCC will slowly widen out.

Even though she has been sheared to death, it looks like it's making a pretty quick dash West.

lol, that latest development got pretty quickly sheared off. Hopefully this thing bombs going extra tropical.

why no talk about her? shes clearly still there on the sattelite!

I suppose it's just really not doing anything interesting at the moment

The question is how long before she makes her left hand turn to the east? And will it be late enough that Central/SEQ coast will get some rain out of it? Or as has been predicted, just swell and some wind?

Already heading SSE and its out of here!, good swells will be produced on the coast of SE QLD.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland



TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Dangerous Surf and Abnormally High Tides
For people in coastal areas of the Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast
forecast districts.
Issued at 11:00 am on Friday 23 December 2011

Synoptic Situation: At 10am, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Fina was situated approximately
500 kilometres north-northeast of Fraser Island and moving in a
south-southeasterly direction. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Fina is expected to continue
moving in this direction today while adopting more of a southeasterly track over
the weekend. The combination of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Fina and a ridge of high
pressure across the southern Coral Sea will generate large swells along the
southern Queensland coast.

Dangerous surf conditions are expected to develop about coastal areas between
Sandy Cape and Point Danger during Saturday. These conditions are expected to
continue across the weekend and could potentially extend into Tuesday. Locations
which may be affected include Fraser Island, the Sunshine Coast, Moreton Island,
Stradbroke Island and the Gold Coast.

Water levels on the high tide could also exceed the highest tide of the year,
which may lead to localised inundation of low lying areas between Sandy Cape and
Point Danger across the weekend and could potentially extend into Tuesday.

Emergency Management Queensland advises that people should:

- Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.
- Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
- If near the coastline, stay well away from the water's edge.
- Surf Life Saving Australia recommends that you stay out of the water and stay
well away from the surf-exposed areas.
- Check your property regularly for erosion or inundation by sea water, and if
necessary raise goods and electrical items.
- For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.



The next warning is due to be issued by 5pm Friday

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Emergency
Management Queensland would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

i don't think its gonna be out of here that quick. All the models say it will stay in the general area ( with a slight intensification ) until sunday night.

Im not sure but is the cloud mass moved over land in past hr or 2. Looking at the satellite the bottom edge of the clouds has moved in over se qld / Brisbane. Just looking on the radar and there is a fair chunk of rain rolling in too. I'm no expert but i think she's having more impact on the coast than just big waves like bom has said.

I live just south of gladstone, we are currently getting bombarded by really heavy rain.. about 20mm in the gage in Tannum Sands. The sea is pretty rough at the moment too, just went for a drive through the rain and had a squiz at the beach and it does not look pretty. I don't think this rain will hang around long??

Bundy is getting some strong winds and consistant but not heavy rain.

We got some heavy rain today as well as wind.

Last time I checked there was a bit over 30ml in the gauge.

Thunderous swells slam southeast Queensland
Alex Zadnik, Saturday December 24, 2011 - 12:27 EDT
Large and powerful ocean swells are thundering onto the shores of southeast Queensland today, as Ex-Tropical Cyclone Fina sends the seas of the Coral Sea into overdrive.

While Fina did lose its tropical cyclone status two days ago, it has actually become a more potent system for swell generation in the last 12-24 hours.

Fina has under gone a secondary intensification in its transition to a mid-latitude low pressure system in the last 24 hours, setting up a broad region of easterly gales as it presses up against a large high pressure system to the south.

The gale-force easterly winds between these two large weather systems are sending a stream of ever growing swell onto the Queensland coast, with the Sunshine and Gold Coasts both experiencing a notable swell increase today.

Average wave heights on the Sunshine Coat have been measured at 2.5 metres through Saturday, with maximum wave heights in the 4-5 metre range. The Gold Coast wave buoy has been recording average wave heights of 2 metres and maximum wave heights in the 3-4
metre range.

With Ex-TC Fina maintain a broad band of easterly gales off the southeast coast of Queensland through the remainder of Saturday and early Sunday morning, the surf is only going to get bigger and more powerful.

The swell should continue to build through Christmas Day, with a peak in size most likely during the afternoon hours. Wave heights in the surf zone at east facing beaches have the potential to reach 12-15ft, or 4-5 metres in metric terms. Offshore, maximum wave heights of over 6 metres are likely.

It goes without saying that swells of this size are treacherous for all marine activities. It will even be a challenging day for the most experienced surfers who will no doubt attempt to tackle these monstrous waves.

Beach erosion is also going to be a significant factor on Christmas morning along exposed parts of the southeast Queensland coast, with a large astronomical high tide occurring just before 9am. The added effects of strong winds blowing onto the coast and lower than usual air pressure will all boost the high tide mark well above the predicted astronomical value. The increased wave action on top of this abnormally high tide will be a major factor in creating erosion of beaches and dune systems.

The large surf will persist for southeast Queensland on Boxing Day, so extremely hazardous conditions will remain for holiday makers planning a day at the beach.

Even boating would not be sensible on a day like this. Swell conditions will only slowly abate in Queensland during the week.

It's also worth noting that this swell knows no borders, with large and dangerous swells spreading down the New South Wales coast during Christmas Day and Boxing Day.

The northern half of the NSW coast will see the brunt of the swell but even Sydney beaches can expect large and dangerous swells of over 6 feet (2 metres) on Boxing Day. There can be breaks of 10-20 minutes between the arrival of the largest 'set' waves, so this can catch rock fisherman and swimmers offguard. Given the forecast of warmer weather in Sydney on this day, it shapes as a treacherous day for the city's beaches and in fact the entire NSW coast.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2011

Testing

Anyone else noticed that it seems to have turned more south again

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

No definitely still moving East by that animated pic

east and moving away bye bye

Re The big swells... Did you here on the news last night - channel seven news I think - they reported a freak 7 metre wave at the Tweed yesterday. Would of had surfers scrambling no doubt