Thought i'd start up a thread with the upcoming series of troughs coming through NSW. According to the models there will be a near stationary trough from tomorrow right through to xmas eve. Pretty much everywhere in the eastern half of the state could get a piece of the action.

A low pressure system will form in Vic, bringing rain and storms to southern NSW on Monday so i've included Monday into the thread also.

Looking forward to it.

Well a storm warning has been issued for much of the West, will be interesting to see if anything good comes out of today.

Models seem to indicate Boxing Day as the best day for storms in Sydney, hoping it doesn't end up as yet another overcast boring day.

Big storm very slow moving around Parkes/Molong/Cudal.

Plenty also firing up in several lines around Narrabri/Armidale/Gunnedah/Coonamble region plus further west.

Many many sparks - especially the storm over Mt Kaputar

Oi! It's not the 22nd yet, you can't talk about current storms.

Thought I'd sneak in early - aren't I naughty!!

haha, i just changed the date on the thread! Pretty impressed with the activity today so far. There's a slight chance for us to have a rumble or 2 later on, however we lack the moisture here atm and i'd say the small cells out to our west will rely exclusively on the heating and will die after dark.

Well as soon as I get the smoker going, you'll know because there'll be a deluge. Clouds look a bit high and un-organised this time around, so maybe they're saving it for tomorrow. Although that lot to the south still looks like they're planning something.

Aaah the old Ham/Storm conspiracy theory raises it's ugly head once more.

Storms to our west (Parkes Cell) seem to be dropping away although there is a biiigg black wall to my west(ish).

I could do a wash AND fire up the smoker, we'd get squalls, hail and a lightning strike on the power lines. There is a line of sorts, but nothing looking like it's headed for us. There's some good stuff down south, around the Snowies, and some stuff around Temora/Coota, but everything's angling down SE this time. there's a clear channel through Wagga and Canberra.

Very pulsie with bugger all steering wind, plenty of moisture about or there would be no activity at all, especially given the temps out on the plains are several degrees higher than Canberra and the DP's and humidity are roughly the same according to obs. These storms are going up on the convergence, I noted that Temora and Cowra are being hit with the Storm Eradicator (SE wind), that will knock the stuffing out of the storms in very short order. The storm round Forbes looks to be a bitof a goer.
:Cheers:

Nice pulsie just to the NW of Albury at the moment. Can see the lightning from here going off. Anyone down that way have anything to say?

Splitting in 3 directions!!!

Yarrawonga Radar

Mike.

Also interesting to see the trough retreating westward (doppler loop) and also the outflow moving out from that storm (well ahead of it to the S but not so much on the northern portion). Great to see.

Macca

Southern cell really getting organized now. Would love to be just to the SW of it in the next few minutes. Looks nasty for anyone in the path.

Mike.

the upper level disturbance that ACCESS is now picking up for tomorrow bodes well for us. We should start to see some convergence in the ACT region by early avo tomorrow.
The upper low should sit to our south by 2pm, and you can see what it's doing to those cells near Yarrawonga.... very interesting indeed.

Wow. Something to look forward to.

I reek of smoke and that damn ham is smoking up great but it's not cooking. Sigh. I'm going to have to boil it.

Lot of low-hanging misty clouds here tonight. I can see the lights of the HQ JOC roundabout lighting up something, and similar patches right around, yet there's clear sky and stars.

Actually don't think Sydney is in for a too bad chance todayfor storms. Shear isn't THAT bad, and the basin seems to do best when there is some sort of upper disturbance tomorrow which there is. IMO Upper Hunter, NW slopes and the ranges should do best tomorrow but we should still have a decent chance. It is also raining here atm, developed overhead

Lol loving the ham updates Ant. Keep them coming.

Agree with Ben, maybe get a few rumbles and a downpour or two later this morning/afternoon. Hardly going to be all time but better than the 8/8 deck of rubbish we're currently sitting under. Im looking forward to a possible 30c day on Sunday out at Penrith. First (and probably last)day above avergae for the entire month of december if it comes off. Boxing day not looking too bad for a couple of storms but once again the shear environment is rather...lacking. That old chestnut.

How's the ham today Ant?

Had an interesting shower here yesterday evening i very sparse but very big fat drops. Carried on for about an hour, not much in the gauge but it was interesting and noisy.

This morning about 6.30 a decent shower came through again only prob a couple of mm in it but sounds nice. Very dull anround here this a.m.

Thinking the topic should be changed to NSW Rain, Storms, and Ham 21st - 26th Dec

haha! Yes, the talking point for this weekend! Smoked ham..... mmmmmmm. We need to see photos Ant!

Ok, things are starting to kick off to our nw. Hard to see with the deck of cloud that we have here atm though. Will has a pretty good view from Junee with towers going up east of him. Looking at storm cast the convergence area should push into the ACT in the 2 hrs or so, maybe sooner.

Solid deck of cloud here too but radar showing development to our NW with a small cell starting to spark about 100km away upstream (airwise)

got some cb's to our south atm. Some decent towers going up in the clear slots. Nothing epic just yet, but still, good to see some early development.

Damn you work!!!!! Troy is currently doing a time-lapse of an explosive cell sitting stationary on the ranges......

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the
Snowy Mountains,
Australian Capital Territory and parts of the
Southern Tablelands and
South West Slopes Forecast Districts.
Issued at 12:49 pm Thursday, 22 December 2011.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall which may cause flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Canberra, Cooma and Tumbarumba.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* Don't walk, ride your bike or drive through flood water.
* If you are trapped by flash flooding, seek refuge in the highest available place and ring 000 if you need rescue.
* Unplug computers and appliances.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* Stay indoors away from windows, and keep children and pets indoors as well.
* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring the SES (NSW and ACT) on 132 500.
The next warning is due to be issued by 3:50 pm.
If severe thunderstorms develop in Canberra and Queanbeyan, a more detailed Severe Thunderstorm Warning will be issued to people in this area.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Wow, my view to the SW over the brindies is spectacular. Someone a distance away would be seeing one of those big structures with that flat bit underneath... Teh SW horizon is a vast wall of grey, with a lighter fluffy top.

radar confirms that it's a whole shoal of storms coming up from the SW. Quite early, and it hasn't been particularly warm either (it's nice outside right now).

last night's E/SE wind was darn chilly, it's the reason my smoker wouldn't get hot enough to cook as well as smoke. Actually the chicken looks cooked but I'm taking no chances, both it and the ham will get a go in the boiler. Ham is currently stinking up the fridge, home-smoked stuff is really, um, smoky. I ended up turning off the gas around midnight, and loading up the chip box with more wood chunks and some heat beads. It was still warm at 8am!

Looks like we're in for a wet afternoon, and possibly a pyrotechnical one, too.

hmmmm!!!! The Canberra radar is interesting. There's a cell near Jerangle (meaning it's in the Tinderries and behind, south of Captains Flat) that's gone magenta. Now, last December we had a rogue microburst in that region that caused massive flooding in Queanbeyan (and Captains Flat) for days.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/radar/act/canberra

I wonder...

with the low positioned just to our south, as it rotates it will kick up bands of storms for the rest of the avo. Surface winds are switching between nw and ne. On Vis sat there's a BIG bank of cu going up very quickly to our west which bodes very well.

Storms will be slow moving, and wet. I would think there will be flash flooding for sure.

Wow! Those storms sure are hatching quickly, they seem to flare into life and then settle down. With the rapid warming we are having here, surely they'll get more feisty as the afternoon progresses. I bet the Tumba/Batlow apple growers are cursing this, hail would smash all the little apples.

That horizon is so dark, the Brindies et al are just grey contours now, against a flat wall of grey. And there's some weird translucent Cu rearing up behind the main part of the Brindies, too.

The southern sky is just boiling, stuff happening everywhere. If they get another mass of water coming down the Qbn River, I cannot imagine what'll happen. Chaos. The slowness of these storms, including that intense thing around Jerangle (near Michelago on the closer view) means yep, heavy dumps of rain in specific spots.

how exciting.

vis sat is stunning..... we're right in the pocket.....

http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.ht...=&stop=#nav

you're right Ant, looks great out west and south. Got the blinds pulled wide open.

Just boring here with 8/8 cloud cover and light rain, tending a little heavier at times. 5 mm's so far today. None of that exciting stormy stuff in the ACT and southern NSW.
Just 19.2 here atm. Another cool day which I'm grateful for.

Homer

just flew in from a vavex getting bumpy up there averything is just exploding at one point we had a cu climbing faster then our aircraft and we were at 1800fpm

looks very interesting could be fun

wow mick! Some of the rivers and creeks will be very dangerous in the next few hours, esp those running down from the ranges.

Warning now includes many other parts of the state:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for FLASH FLOODING, LARGE HAILSTONES and DAMAGING WIND

For people in the Southern Tablelands, Central West Slopes and Plains, South West Slopes, Snowy Mountains, Australian Capital Territory and parts of the North West Slopes and Plains, Riverina, Lower Western and Upper Western Forecast Districts.
Issued at 1:55 pm Thursday, 22 December 2011.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones over the next several hours in the Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes, Snowy Mountains, Australian Capital Territory and parts of the Riverina districts. Locations which may be affected include Canberra, Goulburn, Cooma, Yass, Wagga Wagga and Tumbarumba.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall, flash flooding, large hailstones and damaging winds over the next several hours in the Central West Slopes and Plains and parts of the North West Slopes and Plains, Lower Western and Upper Western districts. Locations which may be affected include Tamworth, Gunnedah, Narrabri, Walgett, Dubbo, Parkes, Coonamble, Nyngan, Cobar, Bourke, Lightning Ridge and Brewarrina.

getting distant rumbles now sounds promising might be worth a drive lol

Not a day I'd like to be flying, that's for sure, and it's busy time too. I have panoramic views west and south from here at work (and nice views of the little aeroplanes runway too!) and it's drama-plus. The sun's gone as this thing moves over us, and the radar shows it's just the beginning.

I wonder how wet that catchment behind Captain's Flat is?!

I'm getting my pressure/t-storm headache, and my ears are actually popping.

Man I wish I had a decent Camera, What's coming from the Brindi's looks amazing

Jeez teh Canberra radar is dramatic.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/radar/act/canberra
in one run, you see a sudden lot of stuff spear up from Captain's Flat to score a bullseye on my place! The speed of it is incredible.

I dunoo which is more entertaining, the radar or what's outside the windows!

Lucky me , back at work in control room for energy company, Central west area west of Parkes , staff report a good storm about to hit out there. radar sure confirms it.

Getting rumbles and flashes and torrential rain atm!.

Any forumites down there taking any photos?
Sounds spectacular.
You're right about the radar ant. Very dramatic.
The cell over Captains Flat is very slow moving. Also that line west of Holt.
I'd imagine some serious localised flash flooding from these cells.

Homer

it's raining cats and dogs here atm, big tropical drops...... only a small cell on radar, but i would say it's filling in a bit.

If this stuff can clear off by the afternoon there should be some more deep convection later on.

Nothing too spectacular in terms of visual/structure, but there'll be some pretty decent rainfall totals as they're not moving all that fast. I also encountered hail up to 2cm:

Hail Old Sydney Road by Will Barton Photography, on Flickr

And the view from Illabo looking SSW:

Storm over Wantiool by Will Barton Photography, on Flickr

suns out here not a drop went around me but should allow further heating for the maine event

Well it's certainly cleared up Greg. Hard to see convection forming this arvo - looks to have moved north west although I notice cold uppers persisting over the region tonight with Easterly inflow. Hard to say really.

Well Sydney's forecast has beefed up for tomorrow.
"Chance of storms along the coastal fringe in the morning, extending throughout until evening."

Much different to this mornings "isolated showers, clearing."

Should be an interesting day tomorrow.
Most of the showers/light rain have cleared now, and the sun has popped out a few times. Temp still a chilly for December 19.8 though.

Homer

yer i reckon it will be hard for the rest of the ago for anything to keep going, i've noticed a drop in the temps too. Perhaps the odd rumble tonight.
Tomorrow still holds potential in the afternoon. A least i won't be working!!!!

Cheerio guys, got some dinner guests here shortly.

catchy tomorrow!

sky looking ominous again to the west comming in nice and dark

Reports of poles and wires down, hit by lightning in Parkes and Forbes areas, very heavy rainfall.

I dont mind the look of NE VIC on Sunday. Tried to talk my parents into a Saturday night dinner, so I would be free to chase Sunday. No go. Of course that leaves me free to chase on Saturday, with pulsey storms looking quite probrable south of Canberra,but Im reluctant to travel that far for a pulse storm any more. So that leaves Monday, where the hunter is showing potential at this early stage.

You actually tried to get your family to change the entier xmas dinner routine so you could chase! ROFLMAO! Man you have a big set I tell you.

Any chasing tomorrow is going to be a nightmare with the traffic that will be about, every man and his dog trying to get to the coast or Sydney for xmas. The set up is pretty weak for tomorrow so a wait and see what pops up will be the go. Sunday on the sthn highlands is looking kinda tasty round Goulburn and Marulan late afternoon. Though sth of Canberra down towards Nimmitabel and Dalgetty plains should also produce having cooler temps round the 500 to gee things up a bit. Newcastle on Monday looks ok when you check out the Cape but rack up the 1700 sounding and there is a ton of moisture up that way, suggesting heavily embedded storms.
What I do not like about this set up is the 300mb winds are going to shove all the anvil off to the sth east same as today. Anything goes up on the ranges first is going to shade out everything to the East. The biggest worry is we get that viral outbreak of pulsies like today which was not really helpful.
:Cheers:

This area, and the adjacent coastal strip has been a storm producing factory this spring/summer.... so no doubt it will go off again.

Hope that area of Southeast NSW continues to be a 'storm-producing factory' come January when I'm in the area on holiday

I have to agree, Sunday is looking very nice on the latest GFS run. I think the SW slopes looks like the place to be (going by the latest run). I very much like the look of the forecast sounding-

http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.html...1122200&hodo=on

0-6 km shear in the 40-50 knot range which is more than sufficient for supercells. Some nice hodograph curvature there too. Getting a bit far out of my old stomping ground but it might be worth heading out there. I will keep an eye on it anyway.

If it wasn't christmas, I would be onto it. Very annoying,but cant help these things, so no point beating my self up about it. Just hope that something fires more locally, but knowing my neverending horror luck, I will probrably get nothing.Im free on Monday, so expect nothing.

What the bloody hell happened to our apocalypse? I scuttled for the car and just made it, some big thunder crashes, rain, headed for DFO and... the weather vanished.

However, that spear I saw heading up to my place did its work. Driving home, I noticed nearby paddocks were.... shiny with surface water. On slopes. Neighbours' driveways were all over the road. Oh crap. And yep, so was mine, complete with quite large rocks.

I'd had 24mm and judging by the mess, it was short and sharp.

How on earth did all that violent stormage just vanish? I thought we were in for an entertaining night. I've never seen anything like this.

Edit: oh and the ham got its boil tonight. Tastes amazing, it's a very black and angry-looking ham, all pink inside and quite sweet. I'll wrap it later.

I sure hope you are right!
I am working just about everyday over Christmas and New Year, but Monday i do have off!

Did you tell them that a sat night dinner can be your xmas present? xmas AND birthday? lol

Anyway i'll be spending sat night till tues morning out at forbes (and have been granted permission to chase boxing day) so i'll pack the video camera as there could be some storms around for most of that time frame. Hopefully sunday's action can edge a little further north to put me in the firing line.

I'm still here!!!!!!

It sounds like you had what Wagga had yesterday, ant.
20mm in 21 mins at the airport, including 12.2mm in 9 mins. Not as much at home though with 6mm.

Driving down the driveway today, I could see that quite large rocks (you'd need two hands to lift them) had been knocked on their ends by the force of the water. I had some basils on the deck ready to be potted up for gifts, and they're all smashed flat, so it must have been incredibly heavy.

That business yesterday has got my utterly flummoxed. All sunny and innocent today, and they've extended the heat forecast, we have warm weather going through to Tuesday now before it goes back to the low 20s.

Hey gang, starting to see some development to our south, but only small at this stage. Plenty of clear air above allowing for some heating which is a gain. Not big sheer today, so perhaps a repeat of yesterday, with most of the fun to be had in the early stages of a cell's development. The only real thing going for today will be if cells come up from the SW, they will be heading into surface easterlies / ne, meaning there is potential for some short lived, yet photogenic leading edges.

I'd say by about 1pm things we should start to see a few cells worth mentioning.

Gotta run and do some food shopping, got a few xmas recipes i want to try this weekend!
be back soon.

I've been watching those things puff up to the south, they certainly are developing quickly.
As-is the traffic outside Costco! holy crap, I sure won't be going in there.

Very heavy and sustained rainfall for the past half hour in Turramurra. It hasn't rained this heavy since march. Times like this I wish i had a rain gauge.

Coming out of Chatswood Westfield at about 11:45, I was greeted with moderately heavy rain (big drops) and a peal of thunder. It is still raining lightly, some blue sky to the East.

No more action on the near Chatswood now, just cloudy with light rain, with the sun trying to come out. But it looks like Bankstown got 28mm in 20 minutes from a small cell (12:10 to 12:30pm). That might have caused some flash flooding. The RTA camera for M5 at Milpera shows heavy rain. I note that a severe thunderstorm warning covering the Metro area and most of the Hunter has just been issued.

We got quite a few rumbles this morning at Concord with some steady rain, and I have another 5 mm's in the gauge at home.
BOM forecast was pretty spot on.
It seems as though the storms are avoiding the basin now though, but we are surrounded by them in all other directions.

Homer

Wonder how long our luck will hold this year. It ran out on December 30 last year, and apart from 3 hot days over Christmas, we still seem to remain elusive of the heat that usually sets in around this time of the year (and earlier).

The storms seemed to be affected by coastal winds by the time they reached Eastern Sydney. Timelapse illustrates the Cu decaying pretty nicely, albeit poor angles as I'm trapped working at home.

http://youtu.be/T-wsjl3vcoc

The sky looked brilliant for most of the afternoon, but it did nothing. What weird weather. It got to 28c, too, warmer than had been forecast and they've elevated tomorrow to 29c. I reckon Xmas day will go hotter.

A storm would be nice! A proper one. It's quite warm tonight, still just over 20c inside with the windows open.

Just had a heavy shower. Drops are huge.
Road is flooded again so at a guess I'd say 5mm in 10minutes.

PS. It's pouring again.

I popped out to the Bungers to Captain Flat road however most of the storms moving up from the south yesterday avo died pretty quickly due to the build up of cloud to he west. Just not enough heating to keep the marginal conditions going.

I like today better, and i'll be heading down a little further south, probably start off with Cooma. Already Vis sat is picking up some cu down south, which i have a pretty good view of atm from my office. Nice clear skies too, i hope it stays that way. Better sheer today, but more in the south.

There's certainly more warming today, and add that to yesterday and we might have better prospects today. the sky has been amazingly clear today with just the odd boring little cloud, but some areas are getting more organised now.

The usual spot beyond the Talleganda Ranges is starting to sprout, and there's quite a gathering along the western horizon, with some promising thick greyness to the SW, which will be the edge of that early cell around tumba. A bit of activity to the south, too.

It's headed to 29c here, went past 28 a while back. The easterly has strengthened also (not necessarily a good thing!).

Looks like Greg picked it dead-on, the storms are now hatching south of Cooma and marching up north. The tumba one will graze the western edge of us as it heads north but there's a vast horizontal band of them across the Monaro.

Outside, the S/SW/WSW sky is a boiling mass of drama, barometer's dropping too.

I'm hoping tomorrow is the same (as in potential) in the 'berra.. will be there in the mid arvo for xmas dinner with my family and would love some rumbles...but then id hope it holds off for me to buzz past the newly crowned world record holder for most xmas lights on one house, in forrest. http://the-riotact.com/the-richards-family-make-it-into-guiness/62580 (hope they have it switched on too)

Purple blob heading north from Vic - We keep getting blackouts! Frustrating! lol

Wow, if the storm is causing blackouts!!!! Greg must be in hog-heaven, the storms left and right of cooma have gone to red (and even black?) cores on the Canberra radar.

My sky is really something, every colour of grey through to blue to the south, SW and west as that monster cruises past. And something's hatched out of the Tinderries due south of me and is festering up (I'm smoking bacon so it's a bit inconvenient).

I'm sure that mob in Forrest will have their lights going, pretty amazing that we've beaten the yanks who invented this gig though.

We've got huge hail and extremely heavy rain currently

This is horrible! it's been hailing golf ball sized for over 10 mins!

Couple of nice storms out there today. Im thinking I probrably should've had a crack at it now. Greg Sorenson was between Cooma and Nimmitable an hour ago and reported a lovely show of cgs. Steve Feral, also reported Cgs at the back end of that Numeralla/ Jerangle storm. Shame its in such rubbish country now.

As for tomorrow. It should be a similar sort of day, similar shear, if anything more unstable. I'll be available after 1pm, once I get that inconvenience called christmas out of the way. I can get to Braidwood in 90minutes from here, can only hope I dont miss anything.

I'm sticking with the coast/ highlands for Monday now. Storms may pop early around young/temora , however the winds at the 300 are more favourble this time, pushing the anvil junk further south, rather than due east. This may give us a crack of some more clear air, however theres always going to be that threat of cloudcover.

It's sorta heading north towards Bombala BUT it's swirling and moving very slowly.. Just to clarify, it hailed heavily for around 10 mins with some golf ball sized. (Not all)

You dont like Christmas then Pingtang?!
Haha, me neither really. I am quite happy to be working.

Whats your thought for my way on Monday??
I have that off, and would love to chase!

I can't chase tomorrow either, but down near the VIC border looks quite tasty, and into VIC. Decent chase of supercells down that way tomorrow! Glad Greg got onto the Cooma stuff, and I hope you got some photos Fiona that is pretty impressive!!

Monday IMO looks like central NSW's best chance of a good outbreak so far this season. BUT as Pingtang said it all depends on cloudcover, if the levels are too saturated its going to turn into a rainfest. What I like about the day is the jet we have (300 level) winds which have been largely non existent for many storms this season. I also like the NE'ly winds pushing quite far inland later in the afternoon which would allow for some convergence. Shear is very nice throughout now. CT's in the afternoon and the upper Hunter in the late avo/evening would be my picks for Monday, especially the Upper Hunter where that NE'ly pushing into the evening could fuel some massive storms Hopefully I have no jinxed it now

Down Pingtangs way the S'ly could do something interesting too!

Thats the RIGHT answer Ben!

Today saw small cells going up around Barrington again, but just didnt do anything.
I havent looked at any chart at all, but it looked like shear was crap.....

Fingers crossed for Monday then!

Looks like Ben answered your question I agree, the Upper Hunter is showing plenty of potential, and yes I really like those NE'ers pushing into Scone. The steering shear is from an excellent direction!!! If something can get going and tap into the NE surface winds, any dominant storms of the day could steer NE wards. I find the best storms in the Hunter steer up from the Putty area. Maybe something like that will happen on Monday. Still plenty of runs to go yet, I'll make my call early Monday morning.

I've been outside watching this giant black monster to my SE, going along the ranges. Lots of lightning forking down from it, it's so black you can't see where the cloud ends and the mountains start. Almost constant growling thunder although it's quite a way off.

all the action is coming from the south today. Wouldn't mind my own personal storm at some point, it's all very well watching these things go past but one going over would be nice. Don't want the Delegate giant hail stones though.

Hmmm. New thunder just outside, looks like this storm has brought a friend and it's coming up at me from the south/southeast. The bit over on the ranges is just swamping Mt Palerang now so it's moving fairly fast.

Excellent, i have two of you to hold accountable then.
haha...

Thank you to both of you for answering my question
Hope you score something decent Pingtang, and you too Ben if you are able to get out and chase...

I'm being hammered here, with wind mainly. It has come roaring up from the SE, weird how the radar doesn't really show what's going on. A vast curtain of rain is sweeping up the flat, the first squalls hit while I was out at the smoker getting the skin off the bacon I was smoking, and the AWS said 75 km/hr, and it hasn't let up, savage winds ahead of this storm.

The rain is starting, big hard drops, the really heavy stuff is to the east of me, again the radar's not showing it. It's going up the flat and has blotted out the mountains, Hoskinstown, the lot.

The Canberra radar seems to have gone blind to everything to its north. It's not showing this stuff hitting me right now (I've got thunder, lighting, squalls, rain), but on the NSW view if you turn off the lightning you can see it's a big blob of fun moving up from the south. Wagga radar seems to be filling in the gap.

It's re-grouping, some huge house-shaking thunder, freezing squalls and rain, the really heavy stuff seems to be going east of me (I can see it).

I got back around 7pm, quite a show down south. I was just coming through Cooma when the line to my south went red on radar. As Ping stated i got myself about 20kms south of Cooma. The best storm of the day slid right by me and i had a great show for about an hour. The up draughts were very solid, corkscrewing nicely.... some dangerous positives rained down, no-where was really safe. The hail core was impressive on the big cell when it decided to dump it's load.

I followed the line via the Monaro HWY back home, and something that really struck me was the temp boundary.... at Cooma it was 17ºC and i put a jumper on. By the time i raced ahead of the line on my way home, the temp rose sharply to 28ºC!

I got mainly footage and time lapses, sorry, i've got some xmas cooking to do right now; punch, pudding and bbq marinade!

Tomorrow is off limits considering that i'll be chasing in earnest on Monday / Tuesday.

Have a great xmas everyone!

Looks like I may get an early Christmas present. Getting some flashes and some rumbles now coming up from the south. Looking good!

I see the radar is non compis mentis, that will be a bit of a nuisence although the wagga radar does a bit. It certainly puzzled the hell out of me yesterday, I was seeing one thing with my eyes, the radar was saying something else! The temperatures here plummeted last night too, when the squall hit (sometime after 5pm I think) it was icy cold, down in the low teens. after the storms had passed, around 10pm, it got a bit milder.

Lovely clear blue morning here, no wind at all, the air is still cool and fresh, and it's so quiet.

Hope we get a real doozy this evening. Tried some of yesterday's bacon-smoking for brekkie (a maple syrup bacon, very cold smoked) and it's the best yet! Strips of it are now laid over the turkey breast in the oven.

... and if anyone's upset about the lack of heat, come to Canberra. Like I predicted, it's going to be higher than 29c... they've just upped the forecast now to 31c. Some stormage already marching along the Vic/NSW border, so, fingers crossed.

Me and the turkey are heading down to Canberra.

Got a storm for Christmas eve and looks like we will get one for Christmas Day. Can see it coming in from the west. A very warm and sticky 33.1 atm. Merry Christmas to you all.
Duane.

That storm to the South of Canberra must be fairly high as aircraft are going around it.

im heading down the Hume to the 'berra as I type.. certainly nice to have some visual stimulation of the storm variety about..most of it down south still but passed the tiny cell near bowral and looking back at it, its struggling. nice none the less. currently 20km from goulburn and 29 degrees out.

Ive just arrived at work and Surpised to see how much action has already occurred down south west of the state.. An interesting afternoon i can see.

https://picasaweb.google.com/113067500319945360918/DropBox#5689905589463420882

looking south about 10 minutes ago. still looking good as we approach it closer. just turned on the federal so got a clear view towards it.

nice and dark to the sth west banks area seems to be in the thick of it

Same here. Can here some distant rumbles and a guster headed our way. Looks like there is a bit of a greenish tinge in it!

just got light rain thick heavy drops

first stop for us in the 'berra is theodore then back on the northside to latham. sis just msgd to say there is a nasty storm in theodore atm. I replied that im watching it with great anticipation and excitement lol. 40 mins away hehe

there's a second line coming in from aulbry way if it holds
small funnel cloud to my sth

We are about to be smashed!

10mm from that storm in short time. Most of that was sideways rain from that strong wind that came from all directions. May even get some more later on when we heat back up.

84 km/h wind gusts Wagga AWS at 335pm.. wow.

seems to have died in the arse as we got closer... not even a drop of precip hit us yet, and visually it looks like poo... oh I lie, few spots as we approached the hindmarsh drive interchange...disapointing none the less.

Plenty of blackouts occurring at the moment, most of Leeton off, parts of Lockhart and wagga.

yep very only a short life but there seems to be more inbound on radar

Im chasing as well. went after the Canberra cell,and could see a few cgs from it, but i never ever liked the look of it. it died in the arse right in front of me. now the sky looks like a dogs breakfast. now around murrambateman...really unsure what to do now.the line to the west looks scraggly, except for that right mover tail end charlie near finley which i have no hope in hell in getting at. the stuff to the west is also shedding anvil veil all other the place,bad sign.might stay put for a while but im close to giving in.

my chase career is on life support.

coming in dark over tuggeranong again rnd2 coming up

Anyone one down Finley way getting a glimpse of the cell heading towards Yarrawonga? V impressive on the radar. BOM 64 km from Yarrawonga shows it extremely well.

just about to head to the northside, can hear some distant thunder coming over the ranges... would love a lightshow tonight.

simmah i have a shelf coming in from the ranges looks interesting

We finally have power back after 1 hour 45mins. Looks like more action to come.

Wish they'd fix that radar

Finally getting a nice drop here in the NW, I was getting sick of everything going around me

that nerriga left mover looked nice a little while ago... and appin radar is coming to the party with it too... definitely the storm of the day thus far.

Bust.

Left Nowra at 1pm. Through Nerriga and then Braidwood.Noticed a nice cell around Canberra,but the line extended to south of Braidwood as well. I figured the nw flank would be the best chance,so i headed inland, however I made the critical mistake of forgeting about the convergence that was about to setup along the ranges between Braidwood/Nerriga/Goulburn. So the line of lightning out young way baited me to almost Borrowa. When I checked the radar again, I was surprised the Nerriga storm was still going strong. With the Borrowa storms failing to produce a bolt and becoming an outflow party I started to give up.When a 70km/h outflow gust blew my tripod over and cracked me in the head, I got enraged, swore at the top of my voice,and gunned it home at 140km/h in severe frustration.

Finially caught sight of the Goulburn storm near Gunning,and when I got within 30kms of it, I noticed some excellent cgs. However as I got close to the storm, it slowly weakened. I noticed plenty of hail on the side of the road just north of Goulburn, along with flash flooduing, As I got out to investigate, an epic clear air bolt hit 2kms from me from the Taralga with crazy thunder. I followed the storm to almost Taralga and actually got a couple of excellent staccatos. But they werent close, maybe 5kms away,and my lense fogged up so that ruined the shots.

1/10 for today.

This is the Taralga storm. As you can see, some quality bolts! Unfortunately the ones that I got that were much closer were ruined thanks to fog on the lense...

i ventured down to grenfell, leaving forbes about 5pm. Similar experience to Pingtang - 70km/hr outflow and rain 20km ahead of a featureless storm. filming through the car window for about 20 minutes and intermittently on the way home saw me end up with 40 minutes of HD thundery rain and about 10 distant CG's. I'll be uploading the unedited footage to youtube later so keep an eye out for it!!

This is just getting plain depressing. I don't see much hope for today at the moment for the Illawarra/southern tablelands. Looks like that rain to the west is just going to smoother everything. Amazing storms in Melbourne yesterday and then rubbish for the east coast....again! Hope I am wrong but that my take at the moment.

Yup, worst fears realised but hardly surprising really... Im unsure where to chase, everywhere is risky given the cloud. Hunter should get enough heating ahead of the cloudband to see something, possibly Sydney as well. Its not the worst idea to stay in Nowra though,and hope that little clearing edge around Lake Cargeligo gives a shot later, but its going to get very overcast for a couple of hours before that. Then I can check out and possibly surf my secret surf break whilst waiting

Hey guys, yer unbelievable storms in Melb yesterday. We often dream about chasing storms like those, i'm glad that Jane and Clyve were able to raise the alarm with the BOM, otherwise there wouldn't have been any warnings.... not that many people would have taken any notice being xmas day.

Okay today.... it's a tricky one. The cloud build up has been an issue for the past week. Towers go up, turn into storms, then impede any further development due to the sheer being so poor that the remnants stay around for hours.... There really needs to be more forcing to get the job done, as was the case near Cooma on the 24th. I'm in 2 minds today, as the the better convergence is closer to the coast, but it's not great chase country, so i'm not to happy about this option. I have a sneaky suspicion that the far Se will see a good show with better sheer once again. BUT, with the models suggesting that for a more sustained afternoon that i start off north to say Goulburn for early initiation, then push north or east as the day unfolds. I'll push off in a couple hours time.

Looking at the Sat loop, it seems that all the fun will be on the back edge - i like the frontal feature entering into western Vic atm, which means there should some more support coming our way in the uppers. Looking out west atm i can see some of the cloud breaking up, which is a good sign.

Yes the surf is up a little, but that NE wind is already tearing into it. Tomorrow could be better combo of wind/swell.

Why are we surprised that another festival of mid level cloud has greeted our chase day !

Worse season ever for the Illawarra and it just keeps getting poorer - after today, the next 6-7 days appear to be a write off.

We had a storm here just on dusk yesterday and we have another round of rain and rumbles just now :)cooled things down nicely

Yeah I've woken up to see a thick cloudband overhead. How depressing, I was getting sort of excited for today. Oh well, back to bed for me. It is kind of tempting to head west to the CT's where the cloudband is clearing though.

That monster south of Canberra yesterday was an odd one. I saw it nudging up as I headed down to Canberra, very detailed and busy structure as it quickly pushed up. It was around 11am, very early for such things and early storms generally don't have enough puff. I was surprised to hear a big rumble while we were having Xmas lunch, around 1pm ish. It was still a very warm blue day but this big mass to the south was getting busy. It didn't seem to move though (lack of radar not helping), just sat there booming. Late arvo it had finally moved over us and the western stuff joined in, and we got some good rain and bangs. Heading home, I had one of those air-lightings go off a bit too close for comfort as I crested that road heading out of queanbeyan, deafening.

A bit of rain back home, and that was that. All evening there was some strobing to the north, I figured up Goulburn way, and the occasional little shower, had a few of those this morning too, but the sun is starting to win out over the cloud.

Fingers crossed again that today is the day.

Yeah, I know. Its a pretty poor shot, however this gives you an indication how active this little storm was north of Taralga last night. It was flashing every 2-3seconds with a bolt every 15seconds or so. Shame the bolts were very distant( almost out of thunder range) by this stage.

As suspected a few small cells have popped in Syndey, but the cloudband is certainly limiting things there. Full overcast here, a few spits. Very muggy. No signs of the clear slot yet but its close.

That must have been what I could see strobing to the north, so it was beyond Taralga, that makes sense. Looks like a good one.

Wagga sounding this morning shows very high likelihood of thunderstorms with tops over FL350, strong upper winds. Wagga Aerological
I see on radar that intense strom activityy is moving from Cargelligo Griffith Leeton area towards Temora, a big afternoon brewing.

Here in Dalmeney near Narooma, humidity is very high and some early signs of upper instability are visible.

I drove down yesterday from Canberra through the storm that hit Tuggeranong, which I met again at Braidwood and down the Clyde. Some intense CC CG activity, shelf cloud structure visible as it moved into Braidwood area.

More storms now brewing off Gundagai Tumut area, Coota, which will likely build over Brindabellas and into ACT region

Great news Wingnut.
Still quiet here in the basin but I'm still holding out hope for later this afternoon.
25.8 here and very humid.
Back to the cricket.

Homer

currently back on the road home to the gong, nearing goulburn with some ok developments about the place..one almost above us now. few spits of precip from it...i want more! lol. brief stop at goulburn maccas coming up (bout 10 mins away). hopefully it continues building. ;-)

im parked atop nowra hill,not going anywhere for time being.still mostly cloudy here however its much brighter now with a few patches of blue sky about.convection about 80kms to my west,plenty of it,but abit scrappy looking.can also see chunky cells to the far s/sw( the ones in fsr ne victoria) LC was between Forbes and Grenfell earlier and was timelapsing a nice developing base.

This has been issued.

For people in the South West Slopes, Snowy Mountains and parts of the South Coast, Southern Tablelands, Central West Slopes and Plains, Riverina and Lower Western Forecast Districts.


Issued at 1:45 pm Monday, 26 December 2011.


Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Eden, Cooma, Wagga Wagga, Young, West Wyalong and Tumbarumba.

The storm/cold front just came through Merimbula.
Here is some pics I got sent to me, have permission to put a link here
http://flic.kr/s/aHsjxAs7sz

...it didnt. one developing cell rained itself out and the other one didnt do much of anything. few drops of rain at maccas, barely enough to wet the ground.

Im loving the storm out to west of Parkes.. hope it makes itway to Bathurst this time, not like storm which hit condobolin, Trundle and parkes last night.. run out of puff by the time it reached here..

Sky full of TCu, Cu Congestus and CB rolling into Dalmeney Narooma now. First rumbles now audible. Feels like rough stuff coming. I wish the Canberra radar was up!

just in Robertson now, small cell gone up just to the north, interesting feature on it just before...tapping into a lower cu cloud and sucking it in to the rfb.. pretty hard to see it atm.. radar shows it into the yellow and even orange...fun times on macquaries pass coming up perhaps.

Strong squall has moved through Dalmeney, now running up to Moruya. Brief deluge with hail, icy chunks. Behind front now low scud cus and strong cold southerly. Sydney Hobart racers are in for a rough pasage.

i'm almost certain that was a HP supercell that rolled through forbes. i was driving north between grenfell and forbes as it developed so i would stop every now and again to get some video. it had a ground scraping guster and a precip curtain so solid it was shiny. Despite many booms the CG's were all at the back edge of the storm (still some close ones here in forbes now) so i haven't had any luck with lightning footage. I was able to get some tripod timelapse of the guster/suspect wall cloud as it neared me, the motion in it was some of the most rapid i have seen!
surprisingly i did not encounter any hail. BOM recorded 8mm rain in 4 mins though and 70km hr winds. I'll upload some footage when i get back to nowra tuesday night

...nothing again! this southerly needs to do something for us otherwise im going to start being rather bitter..Mr keene style. lol

Yeah simmah, thats my last hope!! the sly. I have a distant visual of that Batemans cell, could see a rfb earlier, now it looks black down there.Im sure it will send off a significant outflow bounary and along with the southerly, it may still give me a chance.

Indeed Simmah I'm already rather bitter at how this does has panned out so far. So much potential, but of course, ruined by cloud again. That Batemans cell looks like the highlight so far. Doesn't look like we shall get supercells now but a lightshow is definitely a chance.

Ohh just wait and watch the trough split as it approaches Sydney and fire a beauty from the Hunter north ways!!! It's a safe bet!!!! Sydney really is the pits these days for stormage!!!

Parkes had wind gust of 72km/h at 345, ,also 6 mm rain in less than 15 min. Wonder if we see that soon in Bathurst.

Massive amount of thunder and lightning with winds and rain and power outages happening at the moment here in orange.

winds were up in the 80 from wsw storm moving quickly.

70 km/hr winds? Huh. That's what I copped when I was trying to de-skin a bacon I'd just smoked on Xmas eve, using the smoker as a table. Damn wind, I had to hold everything down and then scuttle back inside. 75 km/hr said the AWS.

Today has been those sullen booming storms, marching from the west across the north, south and over me. Another is just moving over now. No heavy rain, something moved south of me with curtains of it that I could watch, but not have. Haven't seen any lightning, just a lot of thunder.

I can see a big shining Cu storm-thing to my east, in the usual spot, so that might be the Batemans Bay cell people are talking about. There's rubbish-cloud in front of it, but bits of it are visible.

We just copped another one and got 9mm very quickly. Sheets of water falling from they sky and strong wind. Storms three days in a row. What a Christmas this has been.

Winds have easyed so has the rian for the time still getting a lot of rumbles and lights and power is still up and down getting darker in cloud.

Rain again flash flooding in creeks over spilling the creeks . more thumder and wind is picking up again still getting light shows with power still dancing from the west direction.

we haven't had enough rain to even wet the ground today, lots of things booming past (one's going to my north now), but very little precip. Wind's deathly still, too.

geez, happy to have day off work tonight, storms look so much worse than last night.

That storm west of Dubbo looks rather severe!!!! Pretty much anywhere that escaped the cloudband today did alright by the looks, although some nice obs in Sydney/Hunter still, very warm and humid. Should get some rumbles I'd suspect soon.

Storm looks amazing out near dubbo.. my stepdaughter out that way and says rain just starting..

Had a new storm booming in from the west BUT a very squally easterly has just arrived, icy cold, that'll possibly blow any left over storms apart. Bugger.

Sydney radar appears to have converging areas of rain/storms. Could get interesting soon.

Homer

With you there Homer, racing ahead of this southerly, so gonna get some good rain and then a wind change

This is the Ulladulla storm riding the southerly change .Definately a severe storm, cant say for sure if it was supercell, but the structure was certainly nice!! It chucked out some clear air bolts as well, with nice booms of thunder.

In this photo it starts to become a major outflow push. I decided to get in close under the whales mouth, hoping for some close cgs. After 5 minutes of that I gave up,and never got ahead of the southerly again!!! Plenty of strong gusts on the trip back to Nowra, with heaps of sticks and small branches coming down. Saw some cgs again at Jervis Bay, but scud closed in and that was the end of that. Successful little chase!!

Wow bloody awesome shot mkeene!! Now thats a southerly buster baby!

Looks to be a good cell developed to my SW here,and a few to my west.but I think the heaviest area will slip south of me,the area to my west might intencify maybe and give me a good drenching.

I hope lightning chaser has had the forsight to get out on the Forbes West Wyalong route for that storm comingup from the south.

Yup split just like I said hours ago!!! A JOKE!