Trav I think the next 24 - 48 hrs will give a clear view however GFS is staying very consistent with its runs to the ESE into the GOC look forward to the next lot of updates to see if all the key models stay consistent with the eastward trend. I think once the ridge over WA breaks down movement to the east should pick up as I can not see what else would push it west.

play it's cool see what happen with the next few track map when they get update by the BOM.

It's can do other things just play it's really low for at the moment keep update with the weather zone forums in here as well the BOM.

We are keeping a watch on this developing Tropical low very hard and closely.

I think it's may go west a little bit and them do an turn around and them go back into the GOC waters that what I think it's may do next I sitll going with a %50 to %50 chance.

yeah i know, but interesting to know all models are going with the cyclone/monsoonal low being caught by a upper trough. Some are saying once the ridge breaks down it will get caught, some are saying it will head east straight away.

If its heading east by tomorrow we will know if it has been caught by the trough or not.

has Nitso flown out to Darwin yet? Would suck if he got there then this thing did a u turn.

So quiet in here tonight, everyone must be in holiday mode.
Bet there will be an explosion of people if the NT Low starts coming this way.
Then the havoc will start.
Maybe everyone just waiting to see where its going.

yes. very quiet. I'm just watching. the media here today have been a little over the top considering that it isn't even a cyclone yet. poor new people everywhere panicking. perhaps they are just being sensible? just seems to be more dramatic coverage on it than I've ever seen.

I have to agree with that comment. The first 10 minutes of the news dedicated to a tropical low that is still probably 2 days from forming into a cyclone just seems over the top. They aren't going to have much left to report tomorrow, but I am sure they can find someone else to interview and say "we need to be prepared, but not panicked."

I have a feeling they wanted to get the message across before Christmas and that is why they have made such a big deal out of it. The cynic in me has other explanations though

Edit: I forgot to add that telling people who want to drive out of town for the cyclone to leave as soon as possible seemed very strange!

Yes Max. The media has been all over this.

I've only been here a couple of years, but experienced a low (Lawrence) and Carlos, and a cyclone in NW WA. And this seems much different.

It even has a lot of long term locals confused. Some saying it doesn't feel cycloney, others saying that it is just building very strongly.

We've barely had any rain, and only the storm last night, which was pretty mild.

All I know for sure is that it is getting cold, and that the air is thinning. I've hot the golf ball a fair bit further the last 2 days.

Anyway, the only whirlwind in town is the Uni Rats Christmas Carols tomorrow night.

Im interested in the next update.

nitso has left for darwin

I think in some ways the Media help in getting people ready for the worst but in other ways it can put a lot of stress on people telling them to leave,especially when its not even a Cyclone yet and its path is very unsure.
Be alert not alarmed at this stage would be the best advice.
Maybe they are freaked out its going to be another Yasi but its very different. Yasi was on 1 path and 1 path only.
Hopefully the next couple of Advices will tell a better story.

I was looking forward to update from 28 storms this evening appears not to be forth comming tonight. Have found his updates most informative.

You could always sit down in a supermarket and play the "Lets watch the nutters go overboard buying smokes, booze and baked beans/1 minute noodles" game.

It is a favourite hobby of mine here in Townsville. You see people buying trolley loads of one type of tinned food (baked beans) or 5x 10 packs of chicken flavoured noodles and wonder how the hell they are going to eat it all before the shelf life runs out.

Meanwhile the first vision I saw from darwin was a couple of sailors stocking up with 2 trolleys of Coke - probably oragnising a Xmas party and they had to buy the goffers or something.

Oh and my wife made a link between the 1974 Brisbane fllods and Tracey but i told her there wasn't any real link but who knows she may be right. God I hope not, I couldn't stand the gloating.

Yeah, I've just checked their site. They have updated it.

Here's the latest youtube link to tonights update > > http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=rM2k7pQJnns

and their site http://28storms.com/cyclone/

UK MET model now onboard also for eastward track and strong system into the GOC.


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.2S 133.2E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 23.12.2011 11.2S 133.2E WEAK

00UTC 24.12.2011 10.9S 133.7E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.12.2011 10.4S 133.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.12.2011 10.5S 133.1E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 25.12.2011 11.5S 133.1E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.12.2011 12.5S 133.1E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.12.2011 13.9S 133.3E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.12.2011 14.9S 134.4E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 27.12.2011 15.1S 136.7E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 28.12.2011 16.0S 138.4E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

Negative squeako that was this mornings update at 8.21am.

IDD20150
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 10:50 pm CST on Thursday 22 December 2011

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Dundee Beach to Nhulunbuy, including Darwin.

At 9:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
230 kilometres west northwest of Croker Island and
235 kilometres north of Darwin and
moving west at 6 kilometres per hour.

A tropical cyclone is expected to develop during Saturday north of the Top End.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop later.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time
to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have
accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present
accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This
advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary
precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST:

.Centre located near...... 10.3 degrees South 130.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 185 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Friday 23 December.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

EC have it moving into the GOC, but hovering there for a few days and dieing. Lets hope not! I want rraaiinnn!

Yep still moving west. Darwin doppler indicates its North of Darwin now.. progressing slowly towards the warm soupy waters in the western Arafura sea.... tomorrow will be interesting

I think this has it spot on:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1112221200

The low was looking very sick a few hours ago with hardly any convection at all. But to me I fee that that is a good sign if we want it to not go SE. The shortwave influence will be less by this time tomorrow night and any west movement now is good movement and decreases the chances of it being captured. If it were stronger now, I also feel it would more likely be captured, but the fact that it is such a broad area of low pressure, it really is wobbling around with minimal pull one way or the other. Still a bit unpredictable. There monsoonal surge will be brief, if it can last through that, it also won't go SE as the STR builds again and drives it more W or so. It is a 'little' close to the coast in my eyes but it's small size does help it. New convection now flaring and favouring the western quadrant.

Perhaps the most noteable observation for me is the Cape Don obs.... see http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD60901/IDD60901.94129.shtml

Note the slow and gradual swing in wind direction from SE through east to NE as it stands now. That is no outflow boundary or seabreeze or landbreeze....but a slow and gradual turning in response to a cyclonic system moving away, the winds gradually swing around. That supports west movement no doubt in my eyes. The pressure also rises slightly above the tide for this time of the night which means the centre has got further away from Cape Don and there is no way it has gone east. Latest track map just out as I type, wow!!!! that's much better! Much better.

TS