Gday everybody!! Almost time to say 'the heat is on!'

Looks like Victoria's first major heatwave for the summer is about to strike, so a thread is now up and running for it. Here we go!

The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting a general warming trend over the State during the next couple of days in the lead up to the beginning of 2012, before hot, dry northerly winds descend from the Outback. Temperatures expected to soar into the mid-to-high 30s and even into the low-40s.

Melbourne expecting to hit 36C on Monday. Mildura, meanwhile, is likely to hit 37C on New Year’s Eve, 39C on New Year’s Day, 40C on Monday, 41C on Tuesday, and 42C on Wednesday. Yikes!

I am not entirely looking forward to the upcoming heatwave, since I live in the Dandenong Ranges and it’s a very high bushfire risk area!

However, I’m heading up to Corryong on Monday with my family and my girlfriend, where showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop, which would be great.

In case I forget, Happy New Year everybody, best wishes for 2012!

Yep aussie tornado, it's that time again for a couple of heat waves.
But i reckon they'll be broken, each time possibly, with another 'bang' of a weather system.
Let's hope our friends, like yourself, stay safe in the 'bush' and as far as fires go, it is an unevenful summer.
You too have a great New Year and hope 2012 is kind to us all

Hardly any wind for the entire period, heaps of moisture in the veg and grassland through central VIC thanks to the recent torrential rain from storms, temps only mid 30s for the most part in central VIC and the air mass doesn't look particularly dry given the very high 850T values. I doubt there will even be a TFB declared for south of the ranges in this setup.

EDIT: Even in the Mallee with 39C forecast on New Years Day and an abundance of growth from the last couple of wet years that have dried to a crisp as is normal for this time of year up there, the official forecast fire rating is only 'High' at this stage.

yeah fire dangers wont be so bad for this first hot spell, but as january wear on it could get bad. looking at the models, it looks like a massive pool of hot air is going to dominate the continent for a while now. So things could get crispy later in the month depending on rainfall.

AT , Also of Note : Remember that Strong or Gusty Winds need to be prevalent to Give HIGH and above Fire Danger .

I agree RR , this will dry things out a little , More so the fact that they've had a clear skies for a while now . The actual hot days will more than likely be a little overcast in places . Also of note is that with this Hot Stormy Weather in the NE districts that can be prime setup for remote Lightning Strike lit fires ....

My sentiments exactly S.O. - and saves me some typing .

The Heat from NW Western Australia is going right through to SE Victoria then SW Change will push heat right up to Queensland so its cooking all Australia and cool for Tasmania.

CFA Grassland curing map (issued 26/12) had the Mallee, Wimmera and parts of Northern Country at between 91% & 100% cured. The further ESE you go, the lower the % of cured grass.

Wish the media would drop the scaremongering campaigns about the heat!!

Yep I agree SO, but even then, a period of high temperatures with relatively low humidities even without much wind makes me very frightened, no thanks to the events of Black Saturday 2009 Hoping there'll be no arson fires, especially here in the Dandenong Ranges

Agree with you Bulos, but also mindfull of a very high grassload around the Gippy area with our fanstastic spring/early summer. I would have to say that dryland areas around Sale (+/- 50KM) will be very vunerable after this weekend. Here at Maffra, its green-as, roadside is a problem, but no significant acreage in that.

For me, this means that areas like the York Pen. in SA will be in the news by mid next week (hope I'm wrong).

Am heading down your neck of the woods Petros, well a bit further, to Bruthen, so will be interested to see how things at around Bairnsdale as well as the rivers (Tambo, Mitchell, Nicholson, etc) Expecting a storm perhaps on Monday evening, but otherwise hot all round!

Good-oh Bulos, when you drive up the hill past Rosedale, form there through to Bruthern you will see what I mean (remember cured through to next Tues by hottish dry weather from its present green(ish) state. The grass wants to naturally cure and go to seed if it has 1/2 a chance atm.

Hopefully it won't get too hot! But it's not THAT bad only when there's not a lot of humidity, oh and AT you may want to edit your signature

I think you may be right Ant... given recent severe weather this Storm Season, I'm changing it! Thanks for the suggestion buddy!

Hopefully any thunderstorms that pop up around Corryong next week will produce enough rain to minimise the risk of bushfires in the Upper Murray region, especially those triggered by lightning strikes...

It's worth remembering that the modelling and prediction of bushfire risk and subsequent behaviour is a very scientific thing these days and a lot more accurate than in years gone by with a lot of variables taken into consideration.

The fire danger ratings that we get sum things up pretty well. At this stage there is nothing higher than 'very high' forecast anywhere in the state until at least Tuesday. This doesn't mean that there will be no fires, however it does indicate that any fires that start will have difficulty getting going and are unlikely to pose much of a threat.

Heat is not really the major factor when determining bushfire threat. Wind speed, humidity and the dryness of vegetation are more important factors. If you consider a Black Saturday or an Ash Wednesday type situation, the former event occurred on the back of a near decade long drought and after a near rainless January with days in the mid 40s in the immediate lead up period. The forest and grassland was seriously crispy, it couldn't have got much drier. Ash Wednesday was more a slow buildup with the majority of that year exceptionally dry and that lead to a similar scenario with totally dessicated forests and grassland.

This summer is a totally different scenario, especially for on and south of the ranges. Firstly, most of the state has just experienced two extremely wet years and for many areas this is still in progress. We had rather widespread torrential downpours over central VIC just 5 days ago and very cool weather since then, up to 4C or 5C below average since Christmas. The moisture is being contained in the soil and grasslands. Forests have just consolidated a heap of fresh new growth. All the forest and bushland flora around here is as green as you like, it hasn't dried out one bit. The grasslands and pastures are only just starting to cure significantly as they finish flowering but still have high moisture content.

Fires this summer are not going to spread anywhere near as quickly as they would in normal years (we have now had two very wet years over most of VIC), let alone years like Black Saturday and Ash Wednesday, and many of the drought years we had during the 2000s, unless we have an exceptionally dry and hot Jan and Feb in which case we will know all about it, but there's no use in preempting things that may or may not happen.

We just need to think back to summers of the 80s and 90s. Most of those years were pretty benign (with notable exceptions of course) despite the fact we still got bad summer heatwaves from time to time. There will always be localised bushfire outbreaks, most years this is likely to happen, but only very rarely, and in the worst case scenarios, do you get anything likely to destroy large numbers of homes or cause loss of life.

Yeah certainly been a very active season!

Cold I might just make a point that you are right in the fact there is a lot more moisture currently and a lot less heat then previous events, but this is also the first time in a while that it has rained this much, meaning they've grown a lot more, if there is a serious heat wave that goes through Melbourne (unlikely with the La Nina) then it could be pretty bad, although I mostly agree with you that this event *touch wood* won't be too bad.

Hi Bulos,

You'll pass within a km of my place as you go from Bairnsdale to Bruthen. You'll see there's not much curing(not unusual for this area at this time of year)... but it is starting. As Petros says, after this spell of relative heat, if there's not significant rain, FDIs will rise. But the fire season (nearly) always in this area is late summer into autumn. Enjoy East Gippy!

Hi all.
September was the start of Grass n Scrub fires over this way.A smouldering lightening strike flared up and took out about 5 hectares.All depends on the terrain in my view.
Yesterdays Grass n Scrub out the back of Porcupine Ridge ,very inaccesible country,required two Heli attack,3 dozers,15 DSE Pigs,8-10 CFA Tankers,that fire took out 15 hectacres or more on a 20 degree afternoon.I actualy saw a gum tree "Explode " yesterday like a chineese firecracker...
All depends on the terrain and fuel loads,plus the weather.
Cheers

After a pleasant cool night 14.5C, I recorded a hotter than expected 34C here today, the seabreeze just didnt get to its usual strength and vacillated between E and SSE most of the arvo. Set up for a beautiful evening here and VERY happy for the campers along the Gippy coast and Lakes

Happy New Years all (and to my daughters spread in 3 loacations from Lakes Entrance through to Gold Coast - BEHAVE).

Forgive me for posting this but it seems that CMC is farting heat bubbles into NSW on Tuesday night Happy New Year! (burp).