Gday everybody!! Almost time to say 'the heat is on!'

Looks like Victoria's first major heatwave for the summer is about to strike, so a thread is now up and running for it. Here we go!

The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting a general warming trend over the State during the next couple of days in the lead up to the beginning of 2012, before hot, dry northerly winds descend from the Outback. Temperatures expected to soar into the mid-to-high 30s and even into the low-40s.

Melbourne expecting to hit 36C on Monday. Mildura, meanwhile, is likely to hit 37C on New Year’s Eve, 39C on New Year’s Day, 40C on Monday, 41C on Tuesday, and 42C on Wednesday. Yikes!

I am not entirely looking forward to the upcoming heatwave, since I live in the Dandenong Ranges and it’s a very high bushfire risk area!

However, I’m heading up to Corryong on Monday with my family and my girlfriend, where showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop, which would be great.

In case I forget, Happy New Year everybody, best wishes for 2012!

Yep aussie tornado, it's that time again for a couple of heat waves.
But i reckon they'll be broken, each time possibly, with another 'bang' of a weather system.
Let's hope our friends, like yourself, stay safe in the 'bush' and as far as fires go, it is an unevenful summer.
You too have a great New Year and hope 2012 is kind to us all

Hardly any wind for the entire period, heaps of moisture in the veg and grassland through central VIC thanks to the recent torrential rain from storms, temps only mid 30s for the most part in central VIC and the air mass doesn't look particularly dry given the very high 850T values. I doubt there will even be a TFB declared for south of the ranges in this setup.

EDIT: Even in the Mallee with 39C forecast on New Years Day and an abundance of growth from the last couple of wet years that have dried to a crisp as is normal for this time of year up there, the official forecast fire rating is only 'High' at this stage.

yeah fire dangers wont be so bad for this first hot spell, but as january wear on it could get bad. looking at the models, it looks like a massive pool of hot air is going to dominate the continent for a while now. So things could get crispy later in the month depending on rainfall.

AT , Also of Note : Remember that Strong or Gusty Winds need to be prevalent to Give HIGH and above Fire Danger .

I agree RR , this will dry things out a little , More so the fact that they've had a clear skies for a while now . The actual hot days will more than likely be a little overcast in places . Also of note is that with this Hot Stormy Weather in the NE districts that can be prime setup for remote Lightning Strike lit fires ....

My sentiments exactly S.O. - and saves me some typing .

The Heat from NW Western Australia is going right through to SE Victoria then SW Change will push heat right up to Queensland so its cooking all Australia and cool for Tasmania.

CFA Grassland curing map (issued 26/12) had the Mallee, Wimmera and parts of Northern Country at between 91% & 100% cured. The further ESE you go, the lower the % of cured grass.

Wish the media would drop the scaremongering campaigns about the heat!!

Yep I agree SO, but even then, a period of high temperatures with relatively low humidities even without much wind makes me very frightened, no thanks to the events of Black Saturday 2009 Hoping there'll be no arson fires, especially here in the Dandenong Ranges

Agree with you Bulos, but also mindfull of a very high grassload around the Gippy area with our fanstastic spring/early summer. I would have to say that dryland areas around Sale (+/- 50KM) will be very vunerable after this weekend. Here at Maffra, its green-as, roadside is a problem, but no significant acreage in that.

For me, this means that areas like the York Pen. in SA will be in the news by mid next week (hope I'm wrong).

Am heading down your neck of the woods Petros, well a bit further, to Bruthen, so will be interested to see how things at around Bairnsdale as well as the rivers (Tambo, Mitchell, Nicholson, etc) Expecting a storm perhaps on Monday evening, but otherwise hot all round!

Good-oh Bulos, when you drive up the hill past Rosedale, form there through to Bruthern you will see what I mean (remember cured through to next Tues by hottish dry weather from its present green(ish) state. The grass wants to naturally cure and go to seed if it has 1/2 a chance atm.

Hopefully it won't get too hot! But it's not THAT bad only when there's not a lot of humidity, oh and AT you may want to edit your signature

I think you may be right Ant... given recent severe weather this Storm Season, I'm changing it! Thanks for the suggestion buddy!

Hopefully any thunderstorms that pop up around Corryong next week will produce enough rain to minimise the risk of bushfires in the Upper Murray region, especially those triggered by lightning strikes...

It's worth remembering that the modelling and prediction of bushfire risk and subsequent behaviour is a very scientific thing these days and a lot more accurate than in years gone by with a lot of variables taken into consideration.

The fire danger ratings that we get sum things up pretty well. At this stage there is nothing higher than 'very high' forecast anywhere in the state until at least Tuesday. This doesn't mean that there will be no fires, however it does indicate that any fires that start will have difficulty getting going and are unlikely to pose much of a threat.

Heat is not really the major factor when determining bushfire threat. Wind speed, humidity and the dryness of vegetation are more important factors. If you consider a Black Saturday or an Ash Wednesday type situation, the former event occurred on the back of a near decade long drought and after a near rainless January with days in the mid 40s in the immediate lead up period. The forest and grassland was seriously crispy, it couldn't have got much drier. Ash Wednesday was more a slow buildup with the majority of that year exceptionally dry and that lead to a similar scenario with totally dessicated forests and grassland.

This summer is a totally different scenario, especially for on and south of the ranges. Firstly, most of the state has just experienced two extremely wet years and for many areas this is still in progress. We had rather widespread torrential downpours over central VIC just 5 days ago and very cool weather since then, up to 4C or 5C below average since Christmas. The moisture is being contained in the soil and grasslands. Forests have just consolidated a heap of fresh new growth. All the forest and bushland flora around here is as green as you like, it hasn't dried out one bit. The grasslands and pastures are only just starting to cure significantly as they finish flowering but still have high moisture content.

Fires this summer are not going to spread anywhere near as quickly as they would in normal years (we have now had two very wet years over most of VIC), let alone years like Black Saturday and Ash Wednesday, and many of the drought years we had during the 2000s, unless we have an exceptionally dry and hot Jan and Feb in which case we will know all about it, but there's no use in preempting things that may or may not happen.

We just need to think back to summers of the 80s and 90s. Most of those years were pretty benign (with notable exceptions of course) despite the fact we still got bad summer heatwaves from time to time. There will always be localised bushfire outbreaks, most years this is likely to happen, but only very rarely, and in the worst case scenarios, do you get anything likely to destroy large numbers of homes or cause loss of life.

Yeah certainly been a very active season!

Cold I might just make a point that you are right in the fact there is a lot more moisture currently and a lot less heat then previous events, but this is also the first time in a while that it has rained this much, meaning they've grown a lot more, if there is a serious heat wave that goes through Melbourne (unlikely with the La Nina) then it could be pretty bad, although I mostly agree with you that this event *touch wood* won't be too bad.

Hi Bulos,

You'll pass within a km of my place as you go from Bairnsdale to Bruthen. You'll see there's not much curing(not unusual for this area at this time of year)... but it is starting. As Petros says, after this spell of relative heat, if there's not significant rain, FDIs will rise. But the fire season (nearly) always in this area is late summer into autumn. Enjoy East Gippy!

Hi all.
September was the start of Grass n Scrub fires over this way.A smouldering lightening strike flared up and took out about 5 hectares.All depends on the terrain in my view.
Yesterdays Grass n Scrub out the back of Porcupine Ridge ,very inaccesible country,required two Heli attack,3 dozers,15 DSE Pigs,8-10 CFA Tankers,that fire took out 15 hectacres or more on a 20 degree afternoon.I actualy saw a gum tree "Explode " yesterday like a chineese firecracker...
All depends on the terrain and fuel loads,plus the weather.
Cheers

After a pleasant cool night 14.5C, I recorded a hotter than expected 34C here today, the seabreeze just didnt get to its usual strength and vacillated between E and SSE most of the arvo. Set up for a beautiful evening here and VERY happy for the campers along the Gippy coast and Lakes

Happy New Years all (and to my daughters spread in 3 loacations from Lakes Entrance through to Gold Coast - BEHAVE).

Forgive me for posting this but it seems that CMC is farting heat bubbles into NSW on Tuesday night Happy New Year! (burp).

No early reprieve to the hot run of days through to Tuesday going be AccR...

Will be very gust north Wind before the SW change as push the heat upwards to NSW / Queensland as cool air will do hard work push heat...

Looks like isolated storms development along ranges SE Victoria is likly

33/17(rounded off) here atm in a Southerly wind. Quite a thick fog here this morning at around 5am, was very suprised to see fog. Does any one know how the fog was caused?

Tuesday more likely now for storm action, I thought BOM would do that, what do you guys think on the chances?
BSCH just saying possible mostly around the ranges.

17.5 - 31.8 here on a perfect summers day with brisk arvo seabreeze. Time to fire up the barby

Looking towards a hot Tuesday night for many of us acc to this latest run of AccR.....



[edit] - btw, I was very surprised at the extent of Cj development on the foothills along the ranges out this way, if it was forecast, you'd expect lightning at late evening by the look of it circa 4:30pm

Came down the Hume from Sydney today. Grass loads most of the way are the highest I've seen in many years but the curing is really patchy. Some areas still carrying plenty of green even on top while other areas look fairly well advanced. Even in the areas where the grass hasn't cured to the base I reckon there is enough dry fuel to carry a fire.

Looked like some decent storm development underway east of the high country this afternoon as well.

33.8 here today, pretty humid with seabreeze all day.

Tommy. think your fog might have been caused by radiational cooling in the wake of the weak shallow southerly change last night. It was clear,damp and calm and ground was able to cool quickly, also very warm air just above the surface helped by causing an inversion to trap everything under it. Just a guess though..

Stinker tomorrow here, chance of a shallow evening change again which hopefully pushes through. Tuesday looks interesting depending on timing but anything in the PM/evening in central or western parts could get interesting as uppers will be cooling quick and winds at higher level will be amping up..

Was a hot day down at Bruthen today. Also great to see some small cells fire around Swifts Creek. We got a nice view of the structure as we returned from Marlo.

For those not lucky enough to get down this way, the Tambo River is looking (& fishing) very well. The Snowy was a bit murky US of Orbost (and very warm). Plenty of holiday makers really enjoying the great weather. Alas, a 4hr trip home tomorrow with 2 kids and 2 woofers. Hmmm, 40c hey! eeek!!!

By 10pm last evening it had cooled right off, so the house was fine for sleeping. Not so for tonight/tomorrow night - 22C minimums!

Baro steady 1015 hPa, calm and bright blue out. A perfect day for Gippsland holidayers!

Just been looking at data for Melbourne on WZ,

TEMP 33.1

DP 33.0

Feels like - 60C !!!

Could this be right?

SFS - its the morning fog dispersing I reckon.

I was 24.8C with 78%RH earlier this morning after early hours fog.

No fog here this morning Petros. I think something went skewish with that location this morning. Take a look at the RH here http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV60901/IDV60901.94868.shtml and it jumped 60-70% at the 9:30am reading and is 100% now. It feels nothing like 100% here and I'm about 2.5kms down the road. Compare that to the Melbourne Airport location http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV60901/IDV60901.94866.shtml (which admittedly will be a little drier and perhaps warmer today) and it looks to me like someone or something spilt a little water which has steamed the instrument up.

Just gone 36.6 degrees, at 11.30 am, here in Red Cliffs. I think the predicted high on 41, is in trouble.

I expect the wet-bulb probe at Melbourne has run out of water.

Now 38.1 degrees in Red Cliffs. Hope those kids next door, Slip, Slop & Slapped, their in the pool.

That makes much more sense than my stab in the dark Blair

High overcast here now. Not moving if I can help it. Much too warm outside.

Just passed the 40 degree mark here. 40.2 on our weather station outside under the cedar tree.

Nudging 38C here, dead calm, clear sky, 20% RH.It shouldnt get any hotter now, so will take the boat out skiing shortly (not so hot for the poor old driver).

38c here! Indoor weather for sure. Even too hot to be in the pool in full sun. Will be in there later though. You would think I would be used to the heat after living in Port Hedland WA for seven years. Maybe age has something to do with it?
Will be surprised if we reach the forecast of 39c. 41c tomorrow!!!

My mini weather station says it is 41.2C here at the moment.
My other el-cheapo says the same.
All the animals here, including the rabbit, have had baths of sorts - chilling inside my house. Looks like a zoo - some inter-species friendships happening too - meaning one of the cats is cleaning the coat of one of the dogs; another cat has given up tormenting the other dog - wierd harmony happening I wonder for how long

19 - 38.1 C here, calm now thin layer of cloud, and still 34.5 C here. Hope the trough can create some breeze here at night (flat roofed house - never buy one!).

[edit] - I note that the Vic electricity demand has exceeded 8,000 MW for the first time since last summer, notable for a non working day. This summer there is heaps of dam capacity to soak up the peaks (which will be circa high 9,000 MW during hot weekday events in Jan/Feb).

What is was today here in Redan in my Stevenson Screen. The highest since January 11th 2010
ATM 36.5

hot here in Caulfield just had a look at the surface wind bom prediction should be a slight southerly wind at the city by 5-6am tomorrow morning but wont last long! i got the air-con on max so hot up stairs. Lucky you can buy a air con unit for under $100 on ebay! dunno why people wouldn't have one!

Had a top of 41.9 degrees, at 4.02 pm, here at Red Cliffs. According to the Mildura Weather Station they had a top of about 40.3 degrees. Would have been hotter in Mildura City it self.

Steadily cooling down here from the high of 40.7, 32.5 ATM

Blackie - whats happened to the hat!! (Amazing thing, human nature, I scan down the thread and know whos post more by the image that the "handle text!).

Still a hot calm evening here circa 31C

40.8C here today, very impressive! And no bushfires in my area, I heard of one reported late this afternoon in Kallista though.

Heading off to Corryong and Merimbula tomorrow, any chance of showers and thunderstorms developing about Northeast Victoria tomorrow afternoon and evening?

Judging by the BSCH models and the usual weather in the NE this time of year I reckon there's definetly a bigger chance there then in Melbourne, but I think the best chances are for the NW tommorow.

Apparently a grassfire near Rosedale accounted for the murky sky I obvserved here circa 6pm (looked smokey but no ABC alerts to it).

Just sitting on 25.4C here at midnight and it feels much cooler outside to what it was. But still much warmer inside.

My hat's sitting right on my head Petros. Well, hanging on the hook at the moment. But it was to darn hot without it today. Still 27.4 degree's here, and impossible to sleep. Been outside, and it's stuffy out there. And a nice ring around the moon, James Blundell, would be proud of. Quick look at the humidity, and it's 54%. Not looking forward, to later today, that's for sure. Wouldn't be surprised if a lot of our holiday maker's hit the road tonight. You could pick them in the Red Cliffs Streets, for the market today. They were the one's suffering at 10 am this morning.

Good morning all
Just checked my weather station and it is sitiing on 27.3 C.
It was 37C up until quite late last evening!
Looks like the house may become a zoo again today

40% Humidity and 28.3 degrees at 10.00am, it's going to be one of those days.

Hay Blackacubra bloody storms kick off in your NW look ood but not down to SW yet....

35.7 and climbing. Would be really nice if those storms west and NW of Vic didn't slide too far south and made it to here. Don't like the chances though!

Gabby you're best chance imo would be on Wednesday arvo.

38.7C here, a scorcher with hot northerly wind.

Until now, it hasn't been to bad. We had plenty of cloud cover earlier, but the sun's come out of it's hiding place and the temperature's shooting up, and the humidity too me thinks. Yuk. 37.6 degrees and 25% humidity, feels like the humidity should be higher.

Cells developing to NNE, and west VIC.

Yesterday was hotter, but today is uncomfortable that's for sure. Not liking it one little bit. Yes Ant, I've been keeping an eye on, S.A. Certainly some action on the way.

few bangers now north east Melbourne

The storm near Mallacoota is EXTREMELY lightning active.

Thanks for the reply Ant! 39c now and not pleasant at all with gusty NNW winds 28km/h. Some cells developing slightly south of Echuca. Hope there is some rain with that. Dry lightning is something we don't want to see on a day like today.

Feels somewhat cooler to me, but still humid. I hate humidity but after that relentless sun yesterday, I'm not sure if I mind it so much this afternoon. Thank goodness it didn't get to the predicted 35 degrees.

Not sure what is happening storm wise, fairly still around here. Some activity around Hamilton, but that will probably slide south, looking at Stawell but nothing much there either.

I don't mind the storms but really hope no large hailstones for us this time, too many houses around here with damaged roofs and tarps everywhere. Hard to get things repaired on such a large scale.

Bom should work with apple to have a some kind of notification system for thunderstorms and fire warnings! they have it japan for tsunamis

Yeah Katyer the wind change is certainly pleasant but the rising humidity isn't quite as nice, but the next few days will be a lot more comfortable before the heat sets in once again.

Also the hailstones are most likely only in the cells in the eastern parts.

I'm amazed to see posts saying yesterday was hotter!

We got to 40.7 C here, hot clear day with northerly wind (must have dropped out of the 800 hPa levels?) - after a restless 22.1 C min last night.

TA - that storm system in our far east IS impressive. Would be amusing Aussie T if he is at Corryong or Merimbula!

I'm currently watching another, born N of Yarragon and tracking towards Moe. Hoping another can brew up over the Thompson and track SE'wards over Maffra (greedy eh?).

Well done Aussie T on creating this thread, all of his ingredients have been satisfied, and these Eastern storm are what he hoped for too!

Well we did have our wind change at around 12 if I can recall so that could be a big factor.

Thanks Ant. Can you tell that by the red cells on the radar ? I think you told me once that the yellow is not as severe, that's what is in the west of us at the moment.

Good to see the shield is up again after taking a holiday on Xmas Day.

Just had a look at Victoria's energy consumption today. It confirms that things must have been generally cooler than yest for the bulk of the state as the load demand is basically the same as yesterday (killing my "high 9,000's MW peak" prediction I made last night.

Flash flooding alerts to this were included in the ABC 6pm radio news!

Sort've, but usually when there are large hailstones it's more organized as the one in the east is, but just keep an eye on the warnings anyway just to be safe.

Will do. Thought there might have been something building near Meredith but I think since I last checked it is moving further down south.

Sort've, but usually when there are large hailstones it's more organized as the one in the east is, but just keep an eye on the warnings anyway just to be safe.[/quote]

Yeah these storms don't have that much power anyway, atleast these storms in the west, it's not the strongest trough.

cool graph!

We had a cool westerly change, probably associated with the storm system that passed through the Latrobe Valley a while back, opened up the house, and now are "stranded" in a calm 27C. (so much for cooling the house for the night).

I think we are sitting on 23-24 here. Its not too bad, I think there is a slight southerly blowing but very light, and will take more to cool the house properly, but better than last night. Storm activity seems to have dissipated.

I think there's still a chance Katyer of some storms, but really its a bit hit and miss and without the solar energy it's harder for them to stay in the mature stage for a long time. Still a small cell near Atarat.

But I doubt there will be any more storms with large hail etc.

So much for thinking we wouldn't get anything. Lots of Thunder and Lightning, coming from the back of Red Cliffs township.

Shame I can never see anything on the radar in your area blackacubra, just doesn't show often.

I use the South Australian one, and when it's close I use the Mildura. Half the time the Vic one doesn't show us. Probably forget we're up here. Humid as at the moment. And more coming, by the looks. Haven't had much rain though.

One big clap of thunder, the dull roar of raindrops approaching over rooftops, and we've just had 15 mins of the most welcome, cooling, drenching rain here, Everything smells damp and fresh now, the perfect start to the day.

Thunder and lightning in the CBD. Decent downpour as well.

Same here dlcat1. I woke up around 6am and checked the temp and radar, and thought some thunder was on the way with rain. Left the windows open to the last minute for the cool breeze. Didn't time the rainfall, heavy for a minute or so, loud thunder as well. Raining again now, but checking the radar its moving very quickly across our area toward the east.

Very close lightning stike, maybe in South or Port Melbourne. Booming thunder. Great stuff!

Pretty good shower for 30 seconds or so in the CBD after some teasing thunder.

I know I am repeating myself, but another lovely stike this time somewhere near St Kilda Road. Thunder almost instantly. Rain really coming down now! Times like this I am glad I work on the 36th floor and have a great view!

and no hail to speak of. Wonderful eh?

Didn't really enjoy the storms today for some reason, but I sure like the fresh smell of the air. Could be the fact I got no sleep last night thanks to the humidity.

I did hear them say on the radio that there was some small hail.

I thought that would be right, my partner was driving to get the windscreen replaced
on the car that was damaged with Xmas Day storms. The full repair is not for weeks.

Remember though that STW covers for hail 20mm and over so it can be small and still be a warning for it, these storms weren't that organized so it never really looked like large hail.

I agree Ant, last night felt very humid. The other night was more a dry heat.
Knew the thunder was around this morning, I woke up coughing, its like clockwork now
this "thunderstorm asthma and cough".
It's all but gone now around here and much cooler.

3 claps of thunder and a couple of heavy showers swept through here 9:30-10:00am. Night temp got to slightly below 19C so a better sleep. Cool light westerly now (good for golf this arvo ).

Gday everyone, how are you all?

Currently in Corryong, Northeast Victoria, very disappointing weather... the trough seems to have been and gone, only a couple of light showers this morning, now a blue sky overhead with mostly fair-weather cumulus... over the Murray River I can see just mid-level and high-level clouds as a result of the trough, not a single cumulonimbus hugging the NSW Snowy Mountains or even in the Canberra direction, not to mention about the Victorian High Country! Looks like most of the action has headed for the coast. On the plus side, a much milder, drier 30C here, way better compared to the scorching heat and bushfire risk across much of Southeast Australia during the last few days

Anyone been watching the weather around Albury/Wodonga late yesterday? My family, my girlfriend and I drove up from Melbourne during the afternoon, stopping near Wallan (off the Hume Freeway between Melbourne's northern suburbs and Seymour... near where some of the Black Saturday Bushfires of February 2009 started btw), Euroa, and Wangaratta before arriving on the Border at approx. 6:30PM. Just prior to having dinner at around 7PM I was watching the development of a shower/thunderstorm cell to the north towards Culcairn. I grabbed a few pics of it, including a possible hailshaft and a gorgeous 'partial' double rainbow!

The Albury/Culcairn cell crossed the Murray River at around Lake Hume approx. 7:30PM. Took a few more pics of it as the sun was going down while heading along the Murray Valley Highway towards Tallangatta and Corryong, by which time it was on its last legs but had some lovely mammatus to finish off the show. Wish I could share my pics, but I'm on dial-up Internet and haven't downloaded the camera yet, plus I'm reserving them for my future website. Anyone know if there was any lightning from this cell?

Yarrawonga radar sequence from 11AM Tuesday January 3rd 2012 until 2PM Wednesday January 4th 2012...

http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR493-yarrawonga/2012-01-03-00/2012-01-04-03

Frames 44-59 show the progress of the Albury/Culcairn cell.

PS: I've put this same post in the NSW thread but thought I'd share it here since it has as much relevance to Victoria as it does to NSW, hope you don't mind!

This is from memory looking at the system at work today, but I'm pretty sure that there were no recorded ground strikes out of the Albury cell. No idea about cloud-cloud.

I think that Merimbula trip you mentioned should have been yesterday AT

So much for my "good arvo for golf" prediction made this morning... after a brief 2.25mm rain with the front, the following westerly increased to "howling" force for most of the afternoon.

2.0mm at home from the brief storm this morning.

Re;Porcupine Ridge Grass & Scrub,1.1.2012

Was a warmer day obviously on NY day,mid arvo it was off again,spotting into paddocks this time with the NW behind it,Crowning was happening,very Intense first Hour or so ,once on scene.Totaly different type of fire than the previous Thursday,this was hot ,lot of trails of white ash,trees falling over,hmmmm.

Early dayz ,lot of Vic now in nearly fully cured state,gonna be a long summer..

Yep, a worry robbo.

Paddocks round here have visibly suffered in the last five days. They are very dry. Thankfully the grass is short so not a real fire risk. 1.4mm for those showers yesterday.

10mm between 6am and 7am yesterday morning.
Another thunder day recorded, reaching all time best levels on one "storm season"!

I think you might be right Petros lol the NSW coastline faired way better than Northeast Victoria, but mostly from Sydney/Gosford north into Southeast Queensland; the Canberra/Batemans Bay/Ulladulla area had a couple of cells moving through at about 1-3PM, so then again Merimbula seemed no better off than Corryong

Bit of a trek but thinking the WA goldfields would be the place to be tomorrow. That system is amping up every afternoon at the moment. Wonder when it will run out.