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#105005 - 05/08/2003 14:04 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14871
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yep, I reckon it will be a damn good year, the vibe is just there! It has to be good, the past few as Ricky has said have been fairly dismal, altho a period in late October and early November we got a load of awesome electrically active storms but little rain from them. Then apart from one other day, 25th of Nov we ot one more day of a few rumbles (Jan 20th)

IMO, im relying on the 11 year cycle. Just a cycle ive heard that every 11 years the weather repeats itself as such, cheifly in spring and summer. Now this year is 2003 so 11 years back was 1992...need i say more to fellow SA peeps how good and insane that year was!!!! That year had neutral condits, no real La Nina (La nina is worse for storms for sure) and no real El Nino (which IMO is better for more storms and lightning and hail, just less wet storms so to speak) so this year seems to be in a similar way, (sorta in between) But 2004/2005 could be the year of mega wet storms and floods, theres another vibe for u)

So all up im seeing a good wet up for the top end, more cyclones, BUT all that moisture prob wont feed down south as much as we would like, hence I cant quite see (i can never ever see) another 1992 down here, but more of a above average season in terms of severe weather in general. IMO better than last year for sure.

TS cool

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#105006 - 05/08/2003 18:22 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
hail Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/06/2001
Posts: 1496
Loc: Schofields
Hi Guys,

A week off in October I would spend in NNSW and SEQld so long as the moisture coincides with that period.

As to this season, in neutral years, I find it seems to concide with some very active periods. But please do not generalise as stormy or not stormy season. You have stormy and not stormy periods. This is all nothing but wishful thinking and dreaming. Reality therefore may disappoint you.

As to structure Jacob, I doubt anything in Darwin or its surrounds has sufficient wind shear/CAPE combination to develop long lived events on a regular basis. (And please do not go to the US chasers with such a statement as we have great structure - try the UK instead). Yes that region is famous for the lightning. Great!! So tell them that. I have seen at least two people now go to Darwin and come back 'disappointed'. Complexes that develop do produce those famous lightning shows. So perhaps it is good to go at that time if it seems likely such an event will take place. If it were me, I would leave options open - wait until that time and see where the best storms are being produced.

Claims this year was a bad season? Perhaps frequency wise yes if you remained in one location such as Sydney. But quality wise, let me tell you some of the most awesome events have occurred this past season in various locations. February and March this year did produce several supercell episodes in north-eastern NSW / SE Qld. Check the following archives for example:

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/index.html

Anyway, I won't buy further into any debate and I hope everyone's wish lists are granted.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

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#105007 - 05/08/2003 18:30 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
Ben Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/10/2002
Posts: 5298
Loc: Loganholme/Tweed Coast
Yes, Sydneys season was absolutely terrible ! :rolleyes: I am hoping this one will be better. This August line is pretty good IMO. We could be in for a bumper beginner, and then a dead season after that.

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#105008 - 05/08/2003 21:48 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
Bryan Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2002
Posts: 2595
Loc: Beenleigh,
I think that the storm season in SE QLD and i suppose the rest of QLD will have above average rain amounts due to the drought being mostly 'broken'. the storms will probably be better and more of them. i think this due to the SOI and from my dads experiece. because every time he says what he thinks about the weather in the long run it happens. lol. eek
_________________________
In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of priniciple, stand like a rock!

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#105009 - 06/08/2003 00:02 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
Ben Quinn (BSCH) Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2987
Loc: Caboolture, ~45km north of Bri...
Speaking of the SOI - just as a matter of interest, i found a graph of "damaging thunderstorms" compared to SOI values in a report on natural hazards in SE Qld by Geoscience Australia, which is actually quite an interesting read - lots of graphs and statistics. I've done a screen capture of the graph and uploaded it here if anyone wants to have a peek. Make of it what you will i suppose. The entry page for the whole report is here . The topics include east coast lows, tropical cyclones, flooding, severe storms etc etc

Whatever the coming season brings i just hope it brings it to the coast! Just going from the past 4 or 5 seasons alone there have been seasons where inland areas hog all the storms and everything dies right out or weakens significantly by the time it reaches the coastal plane, whereas other seasons it evens out a little more with more storms maintaining intensity or even strengthening as they reach the coast. So that's my order for the weather gods - bring 'em to the coast!

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#105010 - 06/08/2003 06:59 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
Anthony Cornelius Offline
Meteorologist

Registered: 22/05/2001
Posts: 5162
Loc: Brisbane
Hey Ben,

Interesting anti-correlation there between SOI and severe storms. To be expected too really...in theory warm ENSO years should coincide with higher severe thunderstorm incidences. During cool ENSO events the 700mb ridge tends to sit over southern QLD/northern NSW. The result is frustrating days of CAPE's of 3000-5000+ and the cap from hell! Also the upper atmosphere tends to be warmer and more moist, therefore increasing the chance of rain events rather than storm events. However there perhaps could be more storms in cool ENSO events than warm ENSO events through SE QLD, just more severe ones in warm ENSO events. There is one interesting period though and that is the transition between a prolonged warm ENSO event into a neutral/cool phase.

One thing that makes me skeptical of the graph is that the incidence of damaging thunderstorms has increased over the decades when most of us know that this is not true. SE QLD has been very quiet over the last decade. I'm guessing that this is being influenced by the increase in reporting (eg advent of the spotter network in the 90s). It is an odd time to do the correlation over though considering that 1960-late 1980's is almost a "dark period" in SE QLD storm reporting? Ie the 1920s-1950s has excellent data records on severe storms but then for some reason there's a big gap in the records. Not sure why but it's frustrating! One of my subjects allows me to do a thesis on any topic (related to my degree), my supervisor suggested that I might want to do something like this and that's what I really wanted to do. But after sifting through data, I decided that there were just too many holes to base any conclusions on...so looking at QBO and rainfall in Queensland instead (QBO is perhaps linked to ENSO phases which interests me, so it's not too bad!)

Jimmy - yep, the 2002-2003 season was my best chase season to date. It required a bit of travelling, but away from the main cities was certainly fantastic! Oddly enough, the setups of many of these days were quite marginal (in fact, the absence of shear was a big thing I noticed over the last storm season!) Not to mention moisture at times too...perhaps the missing moisture was a blessing in disguise as that helped prevent widespread storm development, which in low shear environments tend quickly to rain.

AC

PS Why can't we tell US chasers we have great structure??? confused Because we do!
_________________________
Weatherwatch www.weatherwatch.net.au
Downunder Chasing www.downunderchase.com

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#105011 - 06/08/2003 07:04 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
Anthony Cornelius Offline
Meteorologist

Registered: 22/05/2001
Posts: 5162
Loc: Brisbane
Oh...one more thing. RE this coming season, I think that October could be interesting (as Jimmy mentioned), there could be the potential for some nice setups there. But it's *extremely* difficult to really define good and poor storm seasons, both on quality and quantity. What might be good for one area under certain conditions may not be good for others too. The thing is with storm seasons is to make the best of what you get. In SE QLD/NE NSW we became spoilt with storms often reaching the metro areas. Recent years haven't seen that happen as much, hence we've dubbed them into the horrible storm years. Sure, they're not as good. But 30-45minutes west of the Brisbane CBD and you're out playing in beautiful open plains where storms still frequent. 1.5 hours and you're on the Downs playing in "mini-US" territory. 2 hours gets you into the heart of Northern Rivers or Wide Bay...there really isn't much in it! If the storms don't come to you...then go to the storms...just don't complain that there aren't any!!! smile

AC
_________________________
Weatherwatch www.weatherwatch.net.au
Downunder Chasing www.downunderchase.com

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#105012 - 06/08/2003 10:15 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
bob the buildup Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2001
Posts: 1780
Loc: 5km N of Tully
Quote:
Originally posted by Anthony Cornelius:
PS Why can't we tell US chasers we have great structure??? confused Because we do!
AC, I think you`ll find that hail was referring specifically to the piddly little thundershowers of the NW Top End and not the wonderfully structured beasts of SE Qld/NE NSW.

bob

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#105013 - 06/08/2003 11:36 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
Anthony Cornelius Offline
Meteorologist

Registered: 22/05/2001
Posts: 5162
Loc: Brisbane
Ahh ok...I've seen some great structure in the Top End though! My only comment is that perhaps it doesn't last as long...but that's only because storms in the Top End tend not to last as long. I guess it depends on the type of structure though...be some fantastic gustfronts up there, which is my favourite!! smile

AC
_________________________
Weatherwatch www.weatherwatch.net.au
Downunder Chasing www.downunderchase.com

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#105014 - 06/08/2003 11:40 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
Jacob Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/09/2001
Posts: 6288
Loc: Sydney, NSW
True for most cells up here, but also dont forget the cells that go continuous for over 4 days, race through Darwin and hit Timor!! eek or the decent severe cells along squall lines during monsoon break period...

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#105015 - 06/08/2003 16:59 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
bob the buildup Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2001
Posts: 1780
Loc: 5km N of Tully
In reality, the NW Top End can come up with some pretty impressive stuff when it comes to structure.

Here`s a photo I took last December of an evening storm, well SE and inland from Darwin. This storm was a considerable distance away from me, and had incredible vertical development.


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#105016 - 06/08/2003 17:06 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
Matt Pearce Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/01/2001
Posts: 4403
Loc: Kariong, NSW
Hi Bob

That is an awesome photo! I love the colour gradations in it too...it looks like it was smoke affected at the bottom or is this some kind of light/camera effect?

Very nice example of a boiling updraft...

Matt

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#105017 - 06/08/2003 18:34 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
Anthony Cornelius Offline
Meteorologist

Registered: 22/05/2001
Posts: 5162
Loc: Brisbane
Geez Bob!!! That's bundle worthy smile I'd be more than a happy camper if I saw that - awesome photo!!!

AC
_________________________
Weatherwatch www.weatherwatch.net.au
Downunder Chasing www.downunderchase.com

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#105018 - 06/08/2003 18:43 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
bob the buildup Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2001
Posts: 1780
Loc: 5km N of Tully
Hi Matt

A little bit of gamma correction involved. I was using slide film at the time, which is extremely sensitive to contrasting light situations, particularly in the far northern tropics!

The lower part of the storm was in shade, while the upper part of the storm was in bright sunshine and was over exposed.

Looking at the original, I`d say there was definitely some smoke involved as well.

Cheers

bob

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#105019 - 06/08/2003 19:40 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
Ben Quinn (BSCH) Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2987
Loc: Caboolture, ~45km north of Bri...
What an awesome shot Bob!

I saw that graph Anthony - made me stop and think too.

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#105020 - 07/08/2003 10:14 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
Jacob Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/09/2001
Posts: 6288
Loc: Sydney, NSW
Hail :


Darwin like all places receives a heap of 'not very interesting' storms, but we also get alot of well structured stuff, that IMO blows the photos Ive seen from the US out of the water! The same applies to cells Ive seen in QLD and NSW.. I dont think I should 'refrain' from attempting to let someone from the US know that our storms are great. Strange way of thinking, as though we could perhaps embarress the Australian chasers and put us in a 'category' of overbeleivers. Fair enough, some people may come back dissapointed, the same applies for trips to the US no doubt. Its the right time kinda stuff, I doubt they were here for a whole season. Ive seen dead seasons of drizzly rainy collapsing cells up here not worth mentioning, and Ive seen the opposite, with awesome structure, amazing heights, lightning rates that set records, wind speed records and tornadoes.

That picture bob has posted is one of 'thousands' we see up here, and I, and he wouldnt consider that 'good structure', its simply 'not bad'.. If it were ur shot I would imagine you would be speculating the 'knuckles' on the updraughts etc etc... :rolleyes:

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#105021 - 07/08/2003 11:38 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
Gulf Lines Offline
Banned member

Registered: 01/02/2001
Posts: 6369
Hi all,

Ben & Anthony - interesting correlation between the SOI and severe TS though I would have to say that the table is pretty unreliable given:

a. That the forecasting & rating rationale for severe TS has been amended several times over that period;
b. The number of spotters would have increased a hundred-fold, and
c. The access to profiles, radar etc is only limited to the last 30 years or so.

To me there has been no conclusive link either way between SOI & storms. Perhaps there is another indicator lurking out there that we need to discover and become very rich! wink

As for the structure.... has Jimmy been spending too much time with David C lately wink

:rolleyes: :p laugh

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#105022 - 07/08/2003 11:57 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
Anthony Cornelius Offline
Meteorologist

Registered: 22/05/2001
Posts: 5162
Loc: Brisbane
Hi Paul,

There's probably a correlation there somewhere, just it's probably not very clear cut (ie just because you have La Nina may not mean it'll be good/bad). I guess it's part of an overall, much bigger picture. There'd be a plethora of factors out there that need to be taken into account, hence why I tend to reserve my opinion for storm seasons (especially in NE NSW/SE QLD) because there's so much we don't know. Be great to do a study (and as I said, I had the option of doing it), but I couldn't forsee the data density/reliability being sufficient for it frown Although it could be something to look at in the future. No doubt with the presence of ASWA, storm reports have gone up a lot since then too (I look through the BoM summaries and see lots of reports reported by ASWA members!) I've often chuckled to myself of the thought that in 50 years time, people looking at severe storm records will think "Geez, 1999-2002 must have been one heck of a year! Look how much it increased by." laugh

Still...always good to speculate, keeps the brain going!

AC
_________________________
Weatherwatch www.weatherwatch.net.au
Downunder Chasing www.downunderchase.com

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#105023 - 07/08/2003 20:05 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
Jacob Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/09/2001
Posts: 6288
Loc: Sydney, NSW
With regard to Top End storms (oh here we go again).. JontyH mentioned that two particular NSSL scientists were up here and were quite impressed, and as he said 'they are about as experienced as USA plains chasers get'

Ive seen the photos on australiansevere weather website of the Darwin trip that MB took, and its pathetic, in fact I wouldnt even point my camera in the direction of cells that looked like that. Typical tropical trash actually, nothing decent to be seen. Perhaps they came at the wrong time, or didnt stay long enough Im not sure. Im not picking fights, I just think you should read up on shear in tropical regions. For somewhere like Darwin to propogate tornadoes on a reasonably regular basis, one has to think 'outside the box'.

If I had visited Darwin and seen a season as was photographed in those examples, Id have been pretty cheesed off, and Im not joking. However, if you take a look at the severe weather summary from the BOM over the last two seasons.. you'd be interested to note the erratic formation of severe cells.


Some Past Events...

10/01

On the 5th a tornado toppled a 40x20 metre hay shed, damaged a boat and trailer and felled trees in a narrow swath at Mango Farm on the Daly River.

On the 17th a violent thunderstorm felled trees and telephone lines and blew a fridge along the verandah at Flying Fox Station, in the Roper River District.

On the 26th a tree was felled in an afternoon thunderstorm microburst at Noonamah, 30 km southeast of Darwin.

On the 31st an afternoon storm produced 1 cm hail and strong wind gusts for 10-15 minutes at Palmerston and Berrimah near Darwin.

11/01

On the 1st a 107 km/h wind gust was recorded at Howard Springs (25 km east of Darwin) in an afternoon thunderstorm downburst. The storm felled trees and fences and produced 1cm in diameter hail at Palmerston.

On the 2nd, a 122 km/h wind gust was recorded at Noonamah (35 km southeast of Darwin) in an afternoon thunderstorm downburst. Boats were rolled along the beach by wind squalls at Bynoe Harbour, causing five thousand dollars worth of damage to boat motors

On the 4th, a late afternoon thunderstorm downburst at Geriatric Park, near Finniss River produced wind gusts estimated at 120-140 km/h, with 5-13mm in diameter hail resulting in damage. An early evening squall line produced wind gusts of 102 km/h in Darwin Harbour, 91 km/h at Lee Point and gusts estimated at 100 km/h at Bynoe Harbour. Many boats broke moorings in Darwin Harbour. Two yachts were thrown onto rocks, an Indonesian fishing boat sank and the Darwin Duchess ferry ran aground. Trees were uprooted, shade cloths torn down and power blackouts of 1 to 2 hours were reported in many Darwin suburbs.

On the 16th, an early evening squall line produced severe winds at Palmerston, Berry Springs and Coolalinga.

On the 20th, an early evening squall line produced wind gusts of 128 km/h at Noonamah and 130 km/h to a yacht in Cullen Bay Marina, Darwin. Trees were felled and minor damage to roofs was reported around the Noonamah roadhouse. Damage to buildings also occurred in the Darwin city and wharf area (a man was injured when a partly constructed wall collapsed onto an adjacent building). A stack of shipping containers was toppled into Darwin Harbour at Perkins Wharf and an empty water tank was blown across the Stuart Highway in Darwin city.

12/01

On the 1st, an afternoon thunderstorm downburst produced a 94 km/h wind gust at Delamere, 140 km southwest of Katherine. On the 2nd, an afternoon thunderstorm caused some damage to the Erldunda Roadhouse and in the area.

On the 22nd, severe winds associated with evening thunderstorms at Humpty Doo (30 km east of Darwin) resulted in some minor damage.

On the 23rd, an afternoon thunderstorm downburst produced severe wind gusts and small hail in Darwin's northern suburbs. The strongest gust was 87 km/h at Darwin Airport. Some minor damage occurred.

On the 24th, an 89 km/h wind gust was recorded at Victoria River Downs in an afternoon thunderstorm.

01/02

On the 21st lightning associated with an evening squall line caused power interruptions in the Darwin suburbs of Nightcliff and Larrakeyah.

On the 22nd an afternoon storm produced flash flooding in the Darwin suburb of Ludmilla. A rainfall rate of 111mm was recorded at Darwin Airport in one hour and 91mm was recorded at Gunn Point in the same storm. Also on the 22nd lightning in intense evening thunderstorms caused a power interruption in the Katherine region.

On the 31st an early morning squall line produced intense lightning activity over Darwin, 5,000 lightning strikes were recorded within 60 km of Darwin Airport. Damage to electrical installations were reported.

02/02

On the 12th a tornado caused a narrow damage swath about 2 kilometres long through the Bynoe Haven subdivision, about 50 kilometres southwest of Darwin. Large trees were felled or snapped and outbuildings on one property were damaged.

03/02

On the 4th a funnel cloud was observed near the Darwin suburb of Karama associated with an early afternoon shower.

On the 12th a wind gust of 93 km/h was reported at the Darwin Wharf in an early morning squall line which passed over Darwin Harbour. Also on the 12th a wind gust of 94 km/h was recorded at Tennant Creek AWS (Barkly District) in an afternoon thunderstorm downburst.

. The same squall line reached Darwin in the evening of the 14th and produced intense lightning activity.

On the 31st a funnel cloud was observed about 60 km north of Darwin Airport Meteorological Office

04/02

On the 11th thunderstorms in a rainband associated with Tropical Cyclone Bonnie produced heavy rain at Gunn Point, 25 kilometres northwest of Darwin. The 24 hour rainfall total to 9am on the 12th was 100.4mm with a maximum rainfall rate of 83 mm/h recorded in a 30 minute period during the early evening

11/ 02

On the evening of the 4th and the early morning of the 5th, two squall lines affected the Darwin area. Wind gusts to 85 km/h were recorded at Darwin Airport, trees were felled in Darwin and the adjacent rural area, power lines were brought down and a brick wall was damaged in a Darwin suburb. On the 14th an afternoon thunderstorm produced hail and a possible tornado near Timber Creek (Victoria River District), causing a line of damage to vegetation. A long-lived squall line formed west of Katherine later the same day, produced a dust storm at Dorisvale station and felled large trees near Bradshaw River.

On the 16th thunderstorm squall lines produced heavy rainfall in Darwin in the early morning 85 mm at Leanyer and 82 mm at Darwin Airport and 97mm at Koolpinya station during the evening.

On the 17th an afternoon thunderstorm downburst caused a 100 km/h wind gust at Bradshaw AWS in the Victoria River District.

On the 26th a 12 cm depth of marble sized hail was reported near Hermansburg.

Also on the 28th an intense line of thunderstorms produced heavy rain and local flooding in Darwin's northern suburbs during the early morning, with totals of 107 mm at Leanyer, 101 mm at Karama, 96 mm at Lee Point and 80 mm at Channel Island.

12/02

Trees were damaged and uprooted along a long stretch of the of Nguiu to Cape Fourcroy road on Bathurst Island in an early morning squall line on the 7th.

There was a 94 km/h wind gust from an afternoon pulse storm at Finniss River on the 10th. Later the same day a short-lived squall line affected Darwin, damaging trees in the suburb of Berrimah.

On the 16th, there was a 92 km/h wind gust at Humpty Doo and large trees in Darwin sustained damage.

In the early hours of the 18th a large, long- lived squall line moved into Darwin. As the gust front passed the airport, the 10-minute mean wind reached gale-force. Trees were brought down in the suburbs of Stuart Park and Wanguri. In the evening another squall line moved through Darwin, there were blackouts at Howard Springs. The line was notable for the frequency and intensity of its lightning display; 987 strokes were recorded on the Darwin lightning flash counter

On the 28th a large waterspout formed over Darwin Harbour. This feature was associated with a developing thunderstorm. It lasted for at least 25 minutes, and being close to the city it caused widespread public interest. Photographs indicate that it was churning up the sea, but it did not pass over any boats or cause any damage.

01/ 03

On the 13th, an early morning line of storms produced flash flooding and wind damage during a 2-hour period in Darwin's suburbs and rural area. Darwin Airport recorded 93 mm in one hour and 24-hour totals included Shoal bay 184 mm, Thorak Cemetery and Channel Island 183 mm, Berrimah 179 mm, Elizabeth Valley 161 mm, Karama 136 mm and Noonamah 133 mm. Trees were felled in Darwin River, Coconut Grove, Millner, Wagaman, The Gardens, Nightcliff and Parap by wind squalls.

On the 16th, an evening line of storms produced heavy rain and flash flooding during a 2-hour period in Darwin's northern suburbs. Lee Point AWS recorded 97 mm in one hour and 24 hour totals included Leanyer 149 mm, Lee Point 132 mm, Shoal Bay 116 mm and Karama 107 mm. The peak 10-minute rainfall rate recorded at Karama was 146 mm/h.

On the 19th, successive lines of storms produced heavy rain and flash flooding during a 3-hour early afternoon period in Darwin's rural area. 24-hour totals included McMinns Lagoon 194 mm, Koolpinyah and Humpty Doo College 178 mm, Noonamah 172 mm and Elizabeth Valley 160 mm. Flash flooding was reported in the Humpty Doo area with Edwins Creek overflowing, and the Elizabeth River rose to cut the outbound lanes of the Stuart Highway about 50 km south of Darwin.

02/ 03

On the 3rd a long-lived evening squall line produced wind gusts to 96 km/h at Koolpinya, 30 kilometres east of Darwin and 94 km/h at Lee Point, in Darwin's northern suburbs. Lightning also caused a 2 hour power failure at Nightcliff.

On the 12th a funnel cloud was observed in the late afternoon north of Darwin Regional Office.

On the 17th heavy rainfall from an afternoon monsoonal squall line produced flash flooding around Darwin city. At Delissaville, 30 kilometres southwest of Darwin, 47 mm fell in 30 minutes in this squall line, contributing to a 24 hour rainfall total of 106 mm.

On the 26th an early morning monsoonal squall line produced heavy rain and flash flooding in Darwin city. Strong wind gusts damaged trees in the Ludmilla area.

03/ 03

On the 29th an afternoon thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 109 km/h at Woolner AWS, 60 kilometres east of Darwin.


-------------------------------------------


No doubt you already read this reply to an email PM sent off before a visit..

Quote:
Severe storms are infrequent in the Northern Territory - the severe
weather section receives around 20 confirmed reports each year (much less
than in NSW due to low population density). The severe phenomena reported
are severe wind gusts (>48 knots or 90 km/h), large hail and flash floods.
About one report per year mentions tornadoes or features associated with
rotating storms.

In the Darwin area, severe wind gusts are primarily associated with squall
lines moving from east to west and also with 'pulse updraft storms'. As
squall lines are long-lived, meteorologists can assess the risk of severe
wind gusts in a particular event and may issue a severe storm warning for
Darwin and surrounding areas. Pulse updraft storms are isolated, localised
and difficult to forecast.
It is probable that you will observe one or two squall lines in the Darwin
area during your visit, but it is unlikely that you will observe a severe
storm at close range.
And as was said, that was the case, the 'visitors' obviously didnt observe a severe storm, not even at close range. Perhaps a longer stay will ensure a proper 'summarisation' of the climate and conditions, or read into the posts of other actual meteorologists that stayed and documented.. ie This one.. etc

Perhaps I should rush to the USA, have a look around and ask where 'the monster storms' are, then go home shortly after with some pictures of showers and tell everyone they dont exist?

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#105024 - 07/08/2003 22:00 Re: Your thoughts on the 2003/2004 Storm Season.
Gulf Lines Offline
Banned member

Registered: 01/02/2001
Posts: 6369
laugh laugh laugh

Well said.

Now that this little 'show and tell' is over, lets get back to the topic! Darwin storms rock! lol wink

Anyone got any other indicators as to severity of seasons?

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