Ok so there are still a couple of days to go but I'd be interested to see what people's thoughts are on the likelihood of another nina next spring/summer.

Given the models backflipped significantly from an elnino prediction mid year back suddenly to a moderate lanina and as such this has played out is anyone seeing a similar pattern to the 50's besides me?

A third consecutive nina must be a better than 50 percent chance at the moment!

As for the start of 2012 I think this lanina is far from done yet. Too many people think that because we got a shed load of rain already by this time last summer that it must play out that way again.

I was expecting December to be wetter up this way so maybe January will be the wettest month again?

I was under the impression from reading this thread and BOM reports, that the Nina would not be strongest until the later months of summer. To have received higher than average rainfall within Australia up to date, is a good start to the summer season.

We might get another dip in January now according to the east Pacific upper-ocean temperature anomaly. This pretty consistently leads the ENSO by about 1 month.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso/heat-last-year.gif

What does that mean Bill ?

I think Bill is trying to say that this La Nina is streghening again, is that right Bill?

And Yes CF it is more than likely that next year we will at least stay Cool/Neutral and may get a 3rd La Nina... Can't see an El Nino happening at all... 2013 is more likely to be an El Nino Year

I would not be surprised at all. Everything has been pointing to the fact that we are seeing the wetter part of the fairly regular ENSO cycle. Very similar to the 50's, 70's, 90's. Obviously some of these events take only a couple if years and some may go for several but it is a definite pattern. Whatever the outcome it will certainly be interesting to see what happens(and just how it is all blamed on AGW-shoulld be a laugh)

has anyone checked on the status of the MJO? I just saw on a post that the models are predicting a very weak MJO passing through northern Australia next month but with no activity which I'm finding it's highly unusual as we're in a La Nina pattern, one would expect a poor northern wet season to occur during El Nino.

unfortunately ( because i love rain ) we may be getting one of those La Nina's which at %40 of the time are dry and not overly wet ( this happens in se qld ) So i wouldn't expect too much rain except west of the downs where i think they will continue to see great rains.

Don't Look at GFS Extended , If you guys think your Dry SEQ Summer will continue for another full month .....

let us hope that we do get some rain, if I was a farmer I would be spewing, in the tropics we're seeing a pattern more typical of September or October, with the monsoon failing for this month, and the flooding in the Phillipines may be a sign of the ITCZ having shifted north, the US is experiencing a snow drought, when the La Nina should be bumping up the snow totals, I wonder what's going on?

Happy New years alland hope its a wet one of course! Chris we're handfeeding a heap of cows here in CW Qld. There's been good storms around in recent weeks but they won't fall on us - we havent had an inch fall in over two years - all our dams are long dry. We're waiting for a good wet season to kick in and hopefully it will. Oracle - we look at GFS 180hr map...where do I find one that extends further than that. Even so, how accurate would it be...

just read where you have to be on weatherzone silver to get GFS extended!

The BOM guys have told me that the ECMWF models [ European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting ] are about the best of the forecasting models around at the moment.

http://www.yr.no/

Enter your location / nearest town etc in the search box; [ You may be given a list of locations to choose from ]

You then have a quick and dirty update in "Long Term".
More detail in "Hour by Hour"

Or the map;
In the "Rest of the World" box, 3 hrs runs only go out to some 48 hours so I deselect 3 hrs and select 6 Hrs for the full run consistency of the maps

The maps will take you out to about 240 hours ;eg; today's run "1st jan 02;00 > 10 jan 1700

The ECMWF only provides precipitation and some other info to the participation national weather Authorities and this info is not normally available to the public.
The Norwegians have a law that what the public pays for through their taxes the public gets to see for no charge hence the ECMWF's precipitation and etc is available on the http://www.yr.no/

You may also find some info in the ECMWF's ; http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts

The "Seasonal Forecast" can be of some use.

Medium Range Forecasts > Deterministic Forecast > Australia uses a rotating series of forecasts and if you follow it , you will get lucky and get a 240 hr precipitation forecast as the various forecasts are run through over the days.

JMA has one month and three month prediction maps in generalised terms; http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/

The American Navy's Monterey based ; Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center uses the 240 hr NOGAPs model;
http://www.usno.navy.mil/FNMOC/ > WXMAP > Tropical Areas > Oceania > NGP / GFS > 6 hr precipitation rate

Beyond 240 hours or maybe even about 180 hours, the tiniest of incorrect inputs into the models when they start their runs or even a normally very low level and undetectable fault in the computer hardware or software after millions of calculations can lead to huge variations in the final projected forecast.
It is a function of Chaos Theory in the computer where after a huge number of computations the tiniest of changes from either the initial input or even from the lack of accuracy limited by the decimal points used which is how the Chaos Theory was first detected and the theory developed, can start to create large deviations in output runs from and between the same model.

This why the meteorologists are still essential and still need to have the final word as they know from their previous experience and training whether some computer scenarios are just ridiculous or maybe are possible or most likely.
I have been told by Met persons that these arguments can get pretty heated on what modeled forecasts to believe or how they should be modified to get closer to the potential reality of the developing weather situation.

Bigger and faster computers will extend the forecast period by a very short few tens of hours but basically, if we want to see longer but still accurate forecasts the underlying knowledge behind global meteorology must be further researched and increased as faster computers without that better meteorology knowledge merely leads to increases in the speed of making the wrong forecasts.

And a bit on Chaos Theory and why it is the limiting factor in weather [ and climate ] forecasting

Chaos Theory for Beginners

A butterfly flapping it's wings in Brazil can cause a tornado in Texas, I hope the La Nina influenced wet season does kick in soon, at the moment the signs are not good, most places have had good falls, but the rain hasn't been falling where it's needed, but then again every La Nina and El Nino event is different.

Thanks for that ROM! Great reading. I got onto the yr. no. site easily, much appreciated.
I couldnt help but note the wild fluctuations in the temperature though - 30 degs one day, 36 the next etc. I read where the MJO is strengthening Chris, I hope that's right.

Chris... You have repeated yourself a dozen times in the past week we get the Picture! That its dry at your place/area

He's right about the butterfly flapping comment though. Many forget just how much chaos is involved in our weather and that is why not every event is the same. We certainly won't see a repeat of last year but we didn't have the ridging up the Queensland coast right up to PNG last year. I'm still fairly confident we will see flood rains in Queensland and NSW however before this summer is over.

The pattern we are seeing is still very similar to the 2008/2009 summer, in which there was also a decrease in rainfall along the eastern seaboard north of the Queensland border and an increase in frontal trough associated rainfall through central Australia. Looking at rainfall percentages for December 2011 shows that, while there were areas receiving below average rainfall, there are vast areas in which rainfall was well above average. The current heatwave in southern Australia has parallels with the January 2009 heatwave.

Are we in an atypical climate pattern? Yes, and it is similar to other weak to moderate La Nina events.

I don't mean to sound like a whinger either Johnno - just looking for some signs of hope in a fairly desperate situation. I greatly enjoy reading the boards, keep up the great work!

Not wanting to sound rude STS, but how dose the current heatwave have parallels to the 2009 one? If i remember correctly NQ was getting smashed with heavy rainfall at the same time as we were baking in the dry heat, looks quite dry up in QLD at the moment, so i'm not really seeing the connection?

We all know the paramaters for ESNO, however Nina/Nino will not live up to its full potential despite what the index at the time says, unless the upper patterns above 15,000 feet play ball, and so far this Nina, these patterns have been firmly fixed in what I call " winter mode ", unlike last summer when the uppers in particular above 25,000 feet changed to " summer mode " about Nov 2010 and more or less stayed that way till late Feb 2011 - thus allowing TC activity and rains to develop off our northeastern shores and head coastwards. To date the STJ is still too far north with the movement and demise of TC Grant a perfect example.

I haved asked this following question previously and received zero replies, so I ask again -

- How does a very positive SST anomaly off NE Australia cause the very mobile STJ to head well south of the continent, and largely stay there for the summer, thus allowing upper ( above 25,000 ft ) highs to anchor in the CS area, the latter necessary for successful TC development and coastal movement plus associated rains ?

All this from a positive SST anomaly, which is all the current hype about a repeat of last year is based on ? Any positive answers ?...

Hello RWM.
I have a question or two. How far back does your memory go? I can remember clearly back to cyclone Dinah ( end of Jan '67) as far as cyclones go and what a season that turned out to be and also 71-72. What really puzzles ,interests and intrigues me is why is the weather pattern is so hostile to cyclones approaching the SE Qld and NE NSW coast now. Even during the the so called quiet period of about 1976 to 2007 during the 80's and early 90's the was an odd one that crossed or came very close but something certainly changed from then and even I) can see that this year the pattern at present is even more hostile than ever.(of course many would say that is a good thing)but some cyclones like Cliff (early 80's) brought much needed widespread rain without any damage.
I would greatly appreciate your opinion
Hopefull

There are mixed correlations with the 2008/09 weak to moderate La Nina event.. Firstly Upper highs dominating the country which was very similar to January 2009 allowing heatwaves for Southern Australia but other points I disagree with is Northern Australia were getting pounded by a strong Monsoon while Southern Australia baked in rainless months, hardly any sign of a decent proper Monsoon yet. Next few weeks will be interesting to see how this month of January goes for alot of people.

Agreed, will be an interesting few weeks. What are you thoughts on how things might turn out, Johnno?

I preety much stick to what I've been saying since September/October mate most areas of Eastern Oz should see above average rainfall next few months but nothing extreme, it will be nothing like last Year which will be a blessing in disguise for some. I think the wetter weather or more normal Summer pattern weather will start 2nd part of Jan and think February will actually be wetter

RWM, have a look at the jet stream tracks found here ; http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/shemjetstream_model.html.

You will se the current jet stream activity is surprisingly and consistently across the NE Australian region or just off shore in the same region which is a very northerly track for the mid latitude jet stream.

If you go to the archived Jet Stream maps found in the top RH side and dial up last years jet stream tracks around the end of 2010 and beginning of 2011 you will see that there is almost no jet stream activity in the northern and NE regions of Australia.

Jet Streams of course are Nature's way of transferring high levels of energy from one air mass across into an air mass with a much lower atmospheric energy level and thereby satisfying the thermodynamics laws of energy flow and in doing so equalising the amounts of energy between two different air masses.
And the interface between the two air masses where this energy transfer and flow occurs is a high intensity energy region which under the influence of th Earth's rotation, sets up conditions for jet stream formation.

So what creates those far north jet steam tracks during our SH summer season?

For that we might have to look at the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave.
This is a two cool node / pool , two warm node/ pool system embedded in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current where the warm and cold pool waters have temperature differences of 2C to 3C at least..
The Antarctic Circumpolar Wave system moves west against the the strong easterly flow of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current but still is carried and travels east but at a much slower rate than the CP current moves at.
The CP wave system takes about 6 to 8 years to circumnavigate the Antarctica.

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap11/ant_wave.html



You can see in the above sequences of a easterly moving warm pool progress how it's influence extends well up into the lower latitudes, close to equatorial regions as well as the slow stately easterly progress of the ACW system.

Research on the teleconnections between the Circumpolar current, the Circumpolar wave and the other better known ENSO, IOD and obviously the SAM has still to be even partially explored

However a paper I found [ Abstract below ] makes a fairly interesting connection between the CPW and the ENSO;
Even the abstract takes some digesting but as RWM has asked the question on why the two different results for the north eastern regions of Australia when there have been quite strong La Ninas only a year apart , perhaps this abstract and paper below goes some way to answering that question.
There are far more interactions and teleconnections in this global climate thing than anybody has yet come to grips with and I strongly suspect that the mostly unknown Southern Ocean will turn out to be one of the great drivers of the global weather and climate.

Positive feedbacks between the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and the global El Nino-Southern Oscillation

Deleted ; double post.

Another paper on the influence of the Circumpolar Wave and the ENSO'

Influence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave on El Niño and its multidecadal changes from 1950 to 2001

Basically it comes down to the location and the consequent interaction with the various ENSO factors in the lower latitudes as the two immense, thousands of kilometres long warm pools and two equally large cold pools move slowly from west to east around Antarctica in their 8 year long journey.

I am trying to find the present locations and set up on these pools but some research papers but no up to date info found so far.

Well Done ROM ,

When i read RWM's question an Hour ago I thought of this link you'd Provided / Raised before .

But there you go in the time it took me to think of the Title ..... BAM you appear . Starting to think that you have a Filter driven Message service that alerts you to action on Keywords entered in these Forum Walls . Like a Batman Light / Phone .

@ Others Reading , : It takes a while for those Papers to sink in .

If its Too much and your still interested , Perhaps Go back through ROM'S Posts in this thread and the IOD one for the last 3 years .
GOLD Mine of Teleconnection / Ocean Transfer Data .

Re Hopefull & cyclones
There are many posters here who know a great deal more about cyclones and their formation than i do but my take on the lack of cyclones goes back to those northern jet stream tracks as I posted above.
While you have those levels of shear due to the jet streams in the cyclone forming regions, jet streams with core speeds of some hundreds of kilometres per hour at around the 35,000 foot mark or lower there will be a serious disruption to the deep atmospheric convective processes at height that are required to get a cyclone up and running.

Another source of current jet stream tracks is the GFS "Medium Range Forecasts for Australia and New Zealand" > 200mb Streamlines & Isotachs

Thanks SO! You are too kind to this poorly educated old fossil.

I think your right RWM and can remember you telling a few of us about it at a WZ meet on the Strand in 2010. The lower the STJ the higher the possibility of cyclones forming or at the very least a huge difference in monsoonal activity. At the moment all weather has stalled like ground hog day in Townsville. Nothing but "Mostly sunny min 24 to a mx of 32 no rain forecast" with a degree difference between each day maybe.

Wheres Bill Murray when you want him

Thanks for the replies all. You have more or less given much thought to digest. It also reinforces the comments in my post, namely that all the media hype and speculation over just ONE number, namely the soi value, as if it is the be all and end all of forecasting ahead, where there are many other factors obviously involved.

I always go back to the Night of Noah in Townsville with an soi of minus 25 as further proof on relying and publicizing just one number when a big drought was being forecast based on the soi. That situation saw a " winter mode " upper wind set as well in mid January, but the same winter mode pattern dragged an ex TC from the Gulf across Townsville and those of us living there at the time know the result..

I think its been discussed Adnauseum in other threads that the soi has very little influence on Actual Cyclone Formation , the only real influence is that a high/strong event gives plenty of Fuel to them . And the higher the soi , the Quicker SST's and Convection will recover/rebound after one has formed drawn it up and run its course . Hence the Forecasts of above average quantity/number of formations in a season .

The other thing that needs to be reminded that with lack of Convection over the Tropical / Coastal Sea's/Waters then the Stronger the Fuel for when and if one forms . So the longer its drier , the less Fresh water incursion , the Hotter the inshore waters and the riper conditions are for a High Category system once Upper conditions become favourable ......

Q. What did the Last MJO do for these STJ's . Does a stalling ( near stationary ) MJO condition be the cause or an effect of the above discussed Low lattitude Jetstreams . As i mentioned previously elsewhere , that a non event MJO pass will only see a extra strong return / following pass .

a repeat of 1950 could be on the cards, because that year started fairly quiet and by Feburary that year the rains started.

Last week,

- Nino 3.4 was at -0.98C (it looks to go as low as at least -1.15C in late-January now)
- Global SSTs were at 0.026C (not much above Zero versus the 1971 to 2000 average)
- The AMO stayed low at -0.16C
- The Atlantic has its own Nino as well and it looks to be developing into a very strong Atlantic-La Nina over the next few months (it was -0.65C last week, a drop of -0.3C in the week and it has an amplitude of +/- 1.0C).


http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/6569/weeklyenamosstdec2811.png

what effect does La Nina have on american hurricanes?

NOAA; FAQ's about El Nino and La Nina;

Bill, What sort of effect and where does this weather pattern effect? Never really heard of it

It has the same type of effects as the ENSO, it is just much smaller. The impact is just enough so that it is measureable in temperatures, +/- 0.05C or so.

The drivers are the same in the two regions, the trade winds and warm/cold water recirculating.

The bigger impact is that it is highly correlated to the AMO and the Gulf Stream. This is not well-known but it is a very strong indicator of the direction the AMO is going. The waters from this Atlantic equatorial region eventually flow up through the Gulf of Mexico into the Gulf Stream and into the north Atlantic.

The last time there were drops like this was Pinatubo, El Chichon, the 1988 La Nina and then 1976.

The 1945/46 huge drop in global SSTs and temperatures (which has puzzled everyone so much so that they are trying to adjust it out) shows up the strongest in the Atlantic Nino. It might have been a real event, a super-Atlantic El Nino followed by a Super-Altlantic La Nina. (speculation on my part only).

Thanks Bill, Just trying to figure out if there is any effect on major global grain growing areas. Deciding whether to even plant any crops this coming season. A drought in either the US or Europe/Russia would spike prices and wake the risk worth it.

Would this cool water making it's way into the gulf stream effect US rainfall in a major way?

Very interesting Bill.
I gather that the system you are referring to is different to both the very short period North Atlantic Oscillation [ NOA ] or the Arctic Oscillation [ AO ] and the very long period Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [ AMO ] although the oscillation you are referring to is closely correlated with the AMO [ which is the Atlantic version of the PDO.]

Are there any formalised names, descriptions and indices for this particular Atlantic oscillation you are referring to as the potential outcomes of such an Atlantic oscillation as you have spelt out sounds very interesting?

For those who want to get a simplified outline on the various known oceanic oscillations on the one web site i would suggest "Global Warming Science" as a starter

I'm not sure if it's ENSO related or not, but the SST anomalies in the bight are quite amazing with areas up to 2-3c above normal for the time of year. Does anyone happen to know what causing this? Could be some seriously hot weather in store for the southern capitals if it keeps up you'd think.

CS22, the cool surface waters of the long lasting La Nina have led to a surge of very warm waters from the Western Pacific Warm Pool, the largest such warm pool on the planet and one of the drivers of the global climate, to surge through the Indonesian Through Flow and on into the Indian Ocean.

The Indian Ocean has in fact been the only ocean that has been consistently warming for a number of years now.
[ November 2011 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update ]

This very warm water is being picked up by the WA Leeuwin coastal hugging current which starts way up in WA's north west regions and is being taken down around and south of WA into the Bight which is why the Bight's waters have a strong warm anomaly particularly in the coastal areas at present .
The Leeuwin Current actually gets as far as Tasmania in some years.
There is however a counter current running at depth and a bit further offshore to the southern WA sections of the Leeuwin Current along with all sorts of other currents so it is as usual in ocean matters, not quite as simple as it all seems.

The currents that are drawing the very warm waters that have flowed through the Indonesian Through Flow from the western Pacific Warm Pool down the WA coast and around into the Bight can be found in this CSIRO current map.

Ocean Surface Currents and Temperature
Just click through the upper left square on the centre map and then you can click through the different areas in the menu heading above the ocean current's map.

La Nina leads to third wettest year on record
Wednesday January 4, 2012 - 12:13 EDT
Data from the Bureau of Meteorology shows 2011 was Australia's third wettest year on record.

The bureau's reports the average rainfall for 2011 was 699 millimetres, more than 200 mm above the long-term average.

It says consecutive La Nina events led to heavy rainfall and widespread flooding.

The bureau's manager of Climate Monitoring and Prediction, Doctor David Jones, says La Nina will decay over the coming months.

"We shouldn't get used to these wet conditions over Australia - the likelihood and we know from history is that it will revert to drier conditions overall," he said.

The 2010-11 La Nina was one of the strongest on record and was followed up by a second La Nina which led to a two-year rainfall total of 1,402 mm.

Along with devastating flooding and natural disasters, Australia experienced its first cooler than average year since 2001, and its coldest autumn since at least 1950.


- ABC

© ABC 2012

The current SST situation bears a reasonable resemblence to the Antarctic Circumpolar Series you posted long ago ROM
ie 36 to 42 months


http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap11/ant_wave.html

Yes Keith, I reckon David had to bite his tongue there to stop from blurting out "Global Warming Droughts"!...as per his old form when on these threads.

Yes. Uneasy lies the 'Head' that wears the crown.

Yep - this is an ENSO thread, keep the politics out of here please. Cheers, Kev

I'm a little bit puzzled at BOM's table in the climate section which is displaying most ensembles forecasting a return to neutral conditions by Winter.

Going through each ensemble forecast I would be suggesting most models are showing cool/neutral with almost all showing Nino 3.4 readings at or below -0.5 through winter.

Still no sign of a strong subsurface warm pool in the west and plenty of cold anomalies getting to the surface in the east.

Agree with NF, Cosmic and others with keeping AGW discussion out of this thread. Although I think we should be free to discuss potential impacts on global temps as ENSO and global temp readings are closely linked.

I have just done a clean-up of this thread, removing all posts solely related to AGW arguments.

Please note that this is NOT an AGW thread - there are other threads that exist solely to debate that topic.

There are many users that do not want to sift through that, so please keep these threads free of that.

Consider this an official warning to all parties.

Agreed, ENSO and global temps are closely linked and I for one am very interested to see how world temps fair, especially if we do see a triple La Niña. And as noted in Bill's posts re AMO, which if it does stay negative for a prolonged period, the impacts of that along with a negative PDO will be very interesting to see unfold over the course of a decade or two. Add in a solar decline as well and a volcano or two and who knows where we'll be by 2020.

What is quite amazing for me to read in the above abc report is this sentence:

"We shouldn't get used to these wet conditions over Australia - the likelihood and we know from history is that it will revert to drier conditions overall."

From history we know we have had both dry and wet weather. Why has he picked dry as the main feature of coming decades. Does he not know about cycles? Why does he sound so confident that dryer weather will prevail?

Many question, too few answers.

I too along with NF , Cosmic and others thought that AGW talk should also stay in that thread .

But I refrained unlike others from commenting as these negative comments only add to off Topic .
AND , since it was coming from some of the Main contributors to this thread , I was of the Opinion that non contributors " or readers " shouldn't imply anything upon contributors .

Another thing that may be pointed out is that , Locke's above comment and others within the AGW threads have been a cross over reference to this Topic . Being mainly that Locke's above questioning of the BOM's statement is proof enough that they and many others do not take ENSO cycles seriously . In some instances Long Term Temperature records have been corrected with " omiiting ENSO noise " ....... This is just ridiculous and I suspect this has seen some vent their discust in this thread as many here take ENSO very serious , ( for instance Adon , who is questioning risking his Good Fortune on it . )

So maybe a little slack can be given here and there , especially when the reactions ( to something that IS reasonably related ) is the actual reason for "clogging " a thread .

So , YES . SGB .

It is definitely clear that members of our own BOM are Wrapped up in a Media whitewash. And its statements like this by BOM that showout time and time again with their pathetic attempts (with all their budget) at Trying to give accuracy to the Basket case that is POAMMA ......

Thanks for letting me have thread space . ( although I wonder if this will be shot down ) .....

Pete .

BUT WHO WILL QUESTION ALL THIS BS! - as time ticks by the fact that the earth IS NOT warming according to the current model predictions SIMPLY HAS TO BE QUESTIONED!

How can AGW be excluded from any ENSO conversation WHEN the latest warming trend publishished by the warmista's now HAS COUNTER CORRECTIONS FOR ESNO MADE IN IT! I was taught as a kid that you cant have both your cake and eat it.

MP - are your deletions a statement of this sites official endorsment of CO2 induced global warming?????

You can exclude AGW from this simply by limiting discussion to ENSO and/or its impact on global temps. If you think coming ENSO cycles will see global temps warm or cool, surely it is possible to say so without having to refer to any link to AGW.

So here's my attempt to do so.

My personal view based on a very limited understanding of how ENSO interacts with global climate, is that we are likely to see La Nina conditions next summer. I don't think at this stage were going to see a strong one (history would indicate when La Nina's occur in 3 consecutive years the 3rd event is normally weak to moderate).

From observations of the impact of previous ENSO events on global temps, there does seem to be a longer term residual "stamp" ONLY from the strong ENSO events. And by strong ENSO events I'm talking where the Nino 3.4 values go above +2.5 or below -2.5. The only events that fit the bill over the past few decades was the 1998 event which I believe added a 0.2C step up to global temps. Other ENSO events since 1998 have only temporarily shifted the running mean for the global temp anomaly to either side of the 0.2C step increase but it will take another strong event to either step up further or bring it down again.

My money is on a strong La Nina mid way through this decade but not next summer which will eventually see a longer term cooling trend start to appear in the global temperature record.

I actually just made up the name for the Atlantic Nino long ago as I was watching it.

But it turns out that others have given it the same name but it is more commonly known in the literature now as the Atlantic Equatorial Mode.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Equatorial_mode

The basic numbers, however, are very highly correlated with the AMO (not always but perhaps only 90% of the time).

Well here it is Friday afternoon; home from work reading the Weather zone forum threads and thinking of trying to contribute something even remotely intelligent. The ENSO soi climate (NOT climate change) is a favorite of mine. I suppose being weather enthusiasts is the reason any of us read and contribute to the forums and perhaps we like to see some interesting weather occasionally like a good but not destructive rain event. But I am wondering if we are going to see anything but the bare minimum the weather pattern can provide. It seems to me that a huge cooling is occurring over the Tasman sea and NE of NewZealand and is spreading up into the Coral sea. I feel totally pessimistic at the moment. I an starting to agree that this so called La Nina is doing the best impression of an El Nino possible. we will probably have sea temps 5 below, massive lows over the southern Tasman and huge highs over the bight driving Gale force SWers right to to the north pole and much of QLD and NE NSW a dust bowl By march. As I now hover over the submit button thinking should I subject you all to this raving nonsense. Fell free to laugh or call me an idiot.

lol! idiot! (Not really, Hopeful...I just could not help myself on this boring weather day! cheers)

In seriousness this time, Hopefull, yes, lot of truth in what you say, as I have been saying for years every El Nino & La Nina is different in SST's in Pacific, near Australia, all around Pacific, all around the world, so different results will occur for every one. And yes this one is vastly different than last years and that cold east coast anomoly may well change the La Nina situation especially for for QLD-NSW areas. Highs won't neccessarily stay in the Bight though imo, but the temp gradient from the La Nina to QLD-NSW is altered and may well reduce the effect in 2012 at least for a few weeks or so anyway.

the cooling is more typical of El Nino rather than La Nina, I wonder if we could be seeing the very first indications of a possible El Nino developing this year? just a thought, although one developing this year will be catastrophic for farmers due the lack of rain this wet season, and the South Burnett isn't the only ones missing out on the rain, parts of the Central West are still waiting for rain and my Uncle who runs a cattle station near Blackwater has had no rain either, the Girl Child better start behaving herself soon, otherwise we will be in trouble, even the United States is recording record warmth for the month which is unusual for a La Nina winter there.

Chris ,

Unlike many others I'm willing to make call and standby it .

I categorically believe we will not see an El Nino in 2012 .

So strong is my conviction , that A: If we see a Negative soi below -8 Reading even for 1 Hr this year I will refrain from posting in this Thread for the remainder of the Year after the Date at which it would fall below -8 .

And B: if the soi does Fall below -8 for a continuos period of Three Months including the start period of Dec. 2012 ( ie into Jan & Feb 2013 ) , and combined with the 3.4 Region has Negative anomalies in which an Official El Nino is called for Western Pacific Waters . Then From that date I will refrain from Posting in the Entire Forum for a period of 3 Mths .

So on my word I will exclude myself , And I presume others may want to run a SP Market on the Odds , and celebrate my self imposed exile then so be it .......

These Negative local waters will be replaced/tempered with renewed warm water injection in the near Future .


Happy New Year ....

Thanks for the continued discussion. I have always felt the weather pattern changed with the end of the 1974 -76 La Nina. Note the horror drought periods of the late 70's to mid 80's ( except for the winter of 1983) . Most of the 90's, 2000 for se QLD and of course most of the next 8 years. Just look at the outlook for southern Qld for the next week. To me the pattern to get a reasonable supposedly wet season for south of the tropics is so wrong. Of course the tropics can still get major rains from the monsoon but it will be interesting to see when the mjo's come through if the barrier will go up.The big high in the bight and the never ending low in the southern Tasman. Actually the EC chart looks much better at the very end of the extended outlook but will it change? One thing I have come to realize is that outstanding rain events are never repeated but the Australian weather pattern has an infinite arsenal of rain event destroying and drought causing patterns.In writing this I am looking at the perspective of someone who grew up and lived in NE NSW( Lismore) and SE QLD which is totally different to other parts of Australia. I am not writing this hoping to be proven right. I hope you are right Southern Oracle. I am just preparing myself for the possibility that we may have to go through the years of those terrible periods such as those I have mentioned again.

Its terrible weather at the moment. We can't even muster a storm in the coastal area of se qld. It's really the coastal fringe suffering this year from what i can see. To about 40 km inland. Past that, they have done well. We will see droughts again and wet periods again. But i think more droughts than rain.

Here is my soi Forecast for 2012 and past forecasts...as forecast is near Neutral most of the time other ocean SSTs will have a much bigger bearing than Nino in 2012 according to my models.

(Copyright holton weather forecasting 2012)

You had better clarify your soi -8 to monthly mean as daily mean will exclude you fairly quickly most likely SO!
Anyway, really no point in making such exclusions imo, we need all posters all the time for best input information.
You have your forecast why not just leave it at that.

Who you talking to Ian?? Very hard to follow in here when names aren't mentioned or things are edited

SO as on post ie Southern Oracle...who was going to not post if soi got to -8 during 2012. Cheers Ian

Thanks

BD ,

I know daily figures will most likely fluctuate and as it declines as per your own forecast ( possibly as early as March ) then this will pretty much be the end of ENSO's wet season/Southern Summer . If this be the case then its okay as my interest will have feigned? . But if you want a more realistic target I'll still maintain accuracy and go for a Fortnightly running mean . ( Meet you half way ) , and I'll still stand by my 1 Hr call . This may enduce renewed interest in this topic as others can now bet on my demise ....... ( a chook lotto , so to speak ). Could be the next best thing to the annual tropics comp . LOL .

But getting back to the figures , I'm more interested in what the Indian and ITF will deliver come Autumn . Ie , strong PDO presence and that the fact that the (Central Section ) of the ITF is currently pumping Negative anomalies into the Eastern Indian , where as the far eastern section is more warm/neutral in its effect on Timor/Arafura Sea . Note Arafura and GOC waters are forecaat to really skyrocket with the lack of Convection/cloud cover in the coming Week . Next Oceania Continent pass of MJO could be loaded ......

My take on the next month or so for rainfall in Sydney (and by extension probably to much of NE NSW) is this:

Currently we have intense low pressure southwest of Tasmania with a somewhat weak monsoon trough that has retracted north away from the NT. soi remains high. We have come out of this damp and cool December and from a cyclical perspective I'd say the next week of January won't be all that awash with rain like last month. I'm not sure when the next MJO is due but if it's 30-45 days that would probably mean it starts to affect us towards early February.

My latest modelling (to November; still waiting on some parameter updates for December) has continued to indicate a wet February so if the above events are part of the scenario then hopefully my prediction won't be too far out.

Daily soi -16 yesterday and -17 today for anyone who is interested...usual short term rapid variations due to pressure systems wandering by darwin and Tahiti.

I heard there had been a huge drop in the soi ? Is this correct ?

This is correct. Though the 'O' stands for Oscillation, so it can be expected to jump around a bit. Keep an eye on the 30 day average for a better indication.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

Does this mean we will not still see above average rain in Qld through the next 3 months ?

Also, can you get above average rainfall years in most of Qld in a year that is not La Nina or El Nino ?

Answer to one is difficult to answer but it is unlikely going by what has happened so far and answer to two is "yes you can!"

Surface indicators would suggest this Nina may have already peaked! The soi seems to be responding to the fact there is a cool anomoly near Darwin and the cold pool near Tahiti has faded. Still too early to call but Lanina does appear to be waning.

It has already started as a late start for the Wet Seaon up here in the north so yes I would expect it to be less than average unless we cop a near miss from a couple or 3 cyclones in the next 2 months. (Unlikely as that scenario is at the moment though - sigh).

As SGB says Vinnie soi goes up and down all the time with local pressure oscialltions and MJO & ER Waves, etc.
Longer term monthly value has more bearing on the overall Nina situation.
While El Nino & La Nina are quite important to QLD, they are not the be all and end all.
Other oceans/solar effects are also important and can make for above average-below average rain at times.
And depends on what tupe of El Nino/La Nina is running, there are all manner of varitions to the theme with
different La Nina/El Nino configurations.
Current lower soi is reflection of MJO wave more than anything, it will come up again as new MJO approaches from west with time.
There will be reasonable rains by the look to come, but they will oscillate up and down with the various ocean-atmosphere changes &
effects also, but I would say mainly Average to a patchy Above Average for general QLD for next 3 months.
(Though, Townsville is a dry desert place SBT having lived there for a few years, it is in rain shadows and may not do as well!)
(PS> I like your Brownsville location!)
(And, that colder than normal SST off S QLD does not help the rainfall greatly also in nthe shorter term)

Well I don't know about Townsville but most of Northern Australia as a whole has had a poor wet season so far..The Monsoon has forgotten to come down and visit... Darwin 59mm for the month so far! And half way through the month.. Darwins forecast all month so far has read like an October forecast not January!

Has the monsoon ever failed before? and why are we getting such a poor wet season, when the indicators are good for above average rainfall? this summer also has been cooler than average, apart from the heatwave we had here last week, and we are back to cooler than average conditions, one also has to wonder what winter has in store for us, if we are getting a cool summer.

Firstly. The Monsoon has not failed just yet and it is a little too early to call it. If you look through the records though there are examples of very dry wets and very dry months within a wet. As for why it has been so dry so far. Buggered if I know.

I hope the monsoon hasn't failed, if it has in a the middle of a La Nina, then something very funny is going on, what are the high pressure systems over Asia like at the moment?

The Monsoon hasn't failed yet but its definetly running well behind schedule

The biggest temperature contrast of the cooler than normal nina waters and the warmer than normal has been from west and central Pacific Ocean to North WA waters most of summer so far and most rain has fallen in the northern WA area where most of the tropical australian uplift has been.
Early days, still plenty of wet season to go yet. I don't forecast further north then NSW-QLD border with my models, but will have a look if I get time in next week or so, & run my models for a overview...a model run would be better than guessing!

Something that never seems to come up in these discussions on the ENSO is the vital role that the atmospheric circulation systems play,
The entire discussion seems to be centred around the SST's and their indices.
The equatorial Walker Circulation is the key to what happens such as where rain falls and how much and where.
The Walker Circulation is driven by the SST's but there are very strong feedbacks into how the winds of the Walker Circulation drive the surface waters to and fro across the Equatorial Pacific and thereby affects the way that the ENSO behaves and the way it's influences on the global circulation patterns and therefore the ENSO's eventual influence on the global weather patterns.

The second bow to this global circulation system is the Hadley cells, the atmospheric circulation system which is a series of cells along the equator created by the rising equatorial air mass due to the heat and humidity of the equatorial atmosphere which then transports that air at high altitudes north and south of the equator to latitude positions of about 30 N and 30 S of the equator.
Due to the cooling of this rising equatorial air mass in the Hadley cell circulation, this air mass deposits vast amounts of precipitation in the equatorial regions both as it rises and on it's way north and south so that by the time it reaches about 30 degrees latitude north and south of the equator and starts to descend in the cell circulation [ which also leads to intense heating of the descending air mass as it is compressed as it sinks at about 30 metres per hour,] it has both lost most of it's moisture and has increased considerably in temperature .
The result is that the world's major deserts are mostly situated at about 30 degrees of latitude.

I post this as it may have some bearing on the lack of rain in most of northern and NE Australia despite there being a La Nina going at present.

There is an enormous amount of research material available on the web on the El Nino but not apparently on the La Nina.

This is one of abstracts on the El Nino I looked at when tracking this down. The critical passage [ my bolding ] refers to El Nino but could equally refer to La Nina.

Sensitivity of Australian Rainfall to Inter–El Niño Variations



As I gather , the authors are suggesting that the western limits of the warm / cold pools may be shifted some hundreds of kilometres east or west in each ENSO episode and they will also change during the period of the ENSO event.
This longitudal variation in the western limits of the two enormous warm / cold water masses would affect or maybe are driven by the atmospheric Walker Circulation with the maximum convection areas only developing over the warm pool location.

This would then also shift the position where the Hadley Cells would pick up the maximum water load before they swing north or south. So if the Western Pacific Warm Pool limits are perhaps a little further east or west than other La Nina situations, the Hadley cell circulation may be dropping copious amounts of precipitation into the eastern Coral sea or over New Caledonia and / or into the eastern and central Indian Ocean.
I tried to find New Caledonia's data to see if their precipitation was greater or lesser than is usual during a La Nina but it would. take a long search to locate and sort the data out.

What I did do is to go to; http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat_products.html > experimental rain rates. Which brought up the current global rainfall maps.
Then selected " previous" in the menu bar above the map and chose at random 3 or 4 maps out of the 151 available starting from the 25 / 12 / 2011 and finishing with the latest map.0600 ; 15 ; 01 ; 2012

All the maps showed quite heavy precipitation in the eastern and central Indian Oceans but none to the north of Australia which in a La Nina year is unusual and suggests that the main equatorial convection areas in the Walker Circulation have moved west as the cold waters of two successive La Nina events pushes the main centre of the warm pool further west into the central Maritime Continent which is where JMA also had indicated was the Warm Pool situation on their maps.

And so I am suggesting that the Hadley cells that would have in past La Nina events picked up the very high moisture Walker Cell circulation convected air mass from the eastern edges on the maritime continent where the cool La Nina waters met the Warm Pool waters and dragged it down across northern and NE Australia have moved quite significantly to the west under the influence of two successive La Nina's and the their masses of cool waters surging westwards over some two years.
So the Hadley cell circulation that would normally in a La Nina bring heavy rainfall to northern and NE Australia this time around does not have access to the very high humidity air masses due to the main convective areas of the Walker circulation being shifted substantially to the west in to the eastern and central Indian Oceans.

OK. I guess I will now sit here like a stunned rabbit in the headlights waiting to be shot down!

And for a longer time view on the ENSO and it's always changing outcomes;

Continuous 150 k.y. monsoon record from Lake Eyre, Australia: Insolation-forcing implications and unexpected Holocene failure



For those who want more background to the ENSO;
Even the better equipped posters might learn a couple of things here.
.
Weather Explained; El Niño & La Niña

OOPS!; Edit correction; Hadley Cells; http://www.bom.gov.au/info/ftweather/page_4.shtml

Further reading; The connection between the ITCZ and Hadley Cells is researched in this paper.

Abrupt seasonal variation of the ITCZ and the Hadley circulation

The ITCZ is really just an identifiable edge to the equatorial convective and major precipitation portion of the global Hadley Cell circulation system..

The walker circulation has been noted as the primary driver of ENSO countless times in this thread with numerous visual models put up on it over the years for those trying to learn the basics of our climate.

It has been raised literally hundreds of times.

Great searching there, ROM!
The Lake Eyre history paper by Magee et al. 2004 which has been out for seven years but is not widely known, is an enormous advance in knowledge about the climate of the last ice age.
I agree with you that visualising the actual air flows in the Hadley and other cells of the global circulation helps. There is a short thread "Australian wind belts"

I wonder if we could we be seeing the first effects of the continuing solar minimum? NASA has predicted a below average solar maximum this year, and some evidence suggests that drier the normal conditions occurred during the Little Ice Age in Northern Australia, probably as a result of the of the more frequent El Ninos, according to the thread on Australian wind belts, in mid spring the Ferrel Cell westerlies are sucked north over Western Australia, and the weather patterns now seem to be more like late winter or early/mid spring, so that is maybe why the weather is acting like it had too much to drink, something has drawn the westerlies up from they should be, what are the Indian Ocean SSTs like at the moment?

As per ROM's post above # 1056769 : - Walker Circulation Longitudal Variations in Convergence and the Hadley Cells Lattitudal Influence .

Both have a cross over where you will see the longitudal Walker have a bias more Nth and Sth , and Vica Versa for the Hadley .

For what we are currently seeing , as per ROM's notion of the Indian's influence we have a Much further West (Less East Longitudal location , lower <150 E ) in the Wlker Ciculation and more of a Nth Hem. Bias in that also . ( Hence we are still seeing large Monsoonal Floods in the Phillipines . ) Whilst in the Sth Hem. we are seeing exceptional Mid Indian SST's which is probably an Answer fro Chris S .

This is where I have based my assumption that a "Too Strong" or exceptionally long La Nina Period will actually have Negative effects on the Maritime Continents Precip rates at the central point of the La Nina dominated period . Ie we saw a peak last year we are currently been in a little Trough of lack of moisture ( climate wise ) and we may well see another spike in Precip's coming soon , and if not again next Summer .
( Triple La Nina ) .

As mentioned elsewhere , the combination of 2010 Strong Negative IOD rolling into above 2010/2011 Average Nina has seen the Sth Hem. atleast carry SST's and connected Atmospherics " Too Far West " , which created the see-saw 2011 Strong Positive IOD event , and in turn saw a near (quasi) Nino effect for 6-8 mths in the Eastern Seaboard . So late this season we will see a return of sorts , and if isn't strong then this should carry forward into another Strong Negative IOD / Nina Year .

The interesting Note is that is that the PDO is driving the Nth Hem Walker Circulation even a little out of Season . Which leads me to the conclusion that come Autumn and once the Trades return to the Right Lattitudes in The Nth West Pac . The ITF will pass through more of the WWP waters pushing / holding another Strong Negative IOD event .

Of course these could be just ramblings , of which everyone should ignore .

Patience maybe rewarded in the SE Qld + Entire Coastal Qld region as it looks like you are starting to get your Fill again .

This year event has not had the deep easterly flow of the one last summer that pooled above average water up against our east coast. The highs in the Tasman have sent Sth easterlies right up into the Torres Strait resulting in a cooling of the CS that directly reflects their circulation on the surface . The return winds over in WA have been dry and weak and by the time they have reached back into Queensland have been steered sth east in inland parts resulting in the dry start seen up here in the tropics.

Finally there has been no massive shove across the equator to push the MT southwards yet. This due to a lack of associate northern hemisphere highs that usually exist at this time of year. Instead the Philippines has flooding and only early last week there was a weak TC near India. Not your typical January pattern and certainly not in a supposed Nina year.

These two consecutive nina's are chalk and cheese! Also of note on the charts is that the surface wind anomolies along the equator in the central pacific are pointing to a northerly anomoly ,not the easterlies typically associated with nina!

hence an El Ninolike pattern, the pattern of persistant south easterlies which cooled the Coral Sea is more typical of El Nino rather than La Nina.

I don't thinkk that is the best way to look at it Chris. ENSO is defined by soi and SST anomolies in the Pacific. Going by that the patter is overwhelmingly La-Nina. The drier conditions and other factors are obviously indicitive of something else annd should not be linked to what we think specific ENSO conditions should deliver. We should be thinking along the lines of Nino +/-, Nina +/-.

I'm not sure that the absence or presence of persistent winds means much for the Eastern Aust seaboard.

These are the zonal wind composites for Nina years and they are (month to month) all over the place:


from http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/enso.composite.html

As Brett says above - "The drier conditions and other factors are obviously indicitive of something else ".

cheers

the drier than normal conditions are definitely part of Chaos Theory, it only takes a slight shift in the SST to change the rainfall pattern for Australia.

I think some are looking at Shorter term Atmospherics as the Be all and all of SST's development , but we are looking at Hydraulics , Salinity/Density and more importantly Inertia . For instance Prolonged LWT positioning in either the 35-60 Sth and certain Longitudal Zones of the Nth Hem. will cause an inbalance in Oceanic Gyre's . And hence this inertia can also drive large Volumes of water and not just the Surface Waters .
Another force included in the Return paths of displaced surface waters , can also Push from below in the form of Exceptional cooling of warmer currents from exceptional overcast areas in mid lattitudes and high lattitudes Push's back towards the Equator ( short cycling The Gyres from time to time ) . So even in lack of positive or negative zonal Surface anomalies the Gyres can shift in strength direction speed all from something that is happening on the other side of the world Atmospherically .

Theoretically ( as it can't possibly happen ) , if all surface winds were to cease , the Oceanic Gyres would still flow on for quite some time . Inertia .
SST's are only Fuel for a Fire , you still need ignition , the right Temps , winds , and a lead up of Drier Humidity levels .
Alot like Flood events in opposite .

Well, I made up a model for 4 tropical locations, and here are the mm forecasts for each month of this summer & near summer,
and the forecast amounts above or below the mean rainfall.
The results don't look really wonderful for a big wet season most months at most sites!

Kind of related to this topic...


http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/darwin-catches-a-dry-break/20044

Yeah ,
I started looking around and Found this .

" http://www.bom.gov.au/amm/docs/1959/nwcyclone2.pdf "

And what wonderfully accurate accounts they had at that time . ( Just goes to show how much things have changed in Fifty Years . )

Of similar years we see More western Waters ( around Christmas Island and Cocos receiving some " Weather " ) . ring a bell to this Year .
Note they had some extreme Rainfall in the very Nth of WA associated with a cyclone in April .

So there was Bertha and Maybe RWM can remember Connie's effect on the Townsville Region .(Cat 4 , at landfall ?)

the soi is dropping like a stone.

Whilst they had certainly dipped for the past fortnight, the daily figures for the past 3 days have averaged around 16.

Models are starting show indications now of an El-nino next summer and sub-surface temps in the Western Pacific are starting to increase. Looking less likely for a 3rd consecutive La-nina now.

most computer models I have seen are showing cool/neutral, and the negative PDO should enhance the risk for a third La Nina year.

Although they are saying cool/neutral on the table on BOM's site if you check the charts some of them have a spread thats more indicative of neutral warm going into our winter. (eg. check EC) I know most of the 4-6 month outlooks say neutral but thats only out to July. Beyond that most charts (except POAMA) are starting to show warm.

Having myself predicted the possibility of a third La Nina, pride alone would make me want to be proven correct. I'm just not sure the indicators still support my earlier prediction.

Probably more a function of the MJO as it has stalled in Phase 6 & 7 for the last couple of weeks. linky [Reduced pressure over that part of the Pacific]

JAMSTEC is forecasting Cool Neutral for the rest of this Year after this La Nina dissipates.. This was the only model that forecasted this 2nd La Nina as early as 12 months ago

Jamstec 's outlook has me still quite comfortable in the call I made back on Pg 4 of this Thread .

Lockie , what specifically from the Models do you base your loss of interest in a Triple .....

I thought you and Johnno had a similar bias towards Jamstec 's outlooks .

Go to BOM's climate page and follow the links to the charts for all the forecast models. Dont pay any attention to the main table thats showing neutral for most models out to July. The links for each of those models take you to the charts that extend into Spring and most show neutral/warm.

The latest Tao/Triton is interesting though. It shows significant subsurface cooling in the central and eastern pacific whilst a strong sub surface warm pool is growing in the West.

will the subsurface warm pool in the west have any impact on our climate? will it come to the surface?

My basic understanding is that the sub-surface warm pool in the west will follow the thermocline across the Pacific from West to East and eventually manifesting as warm anomalies off the american coast to contribute to the next El-nino event.

yeah , I probably should Explore BOM's " Climate " section more .It's just that , That word leaves a bad Taste in my mouth of late .... POAMMA makes me dry reach ...

Tao/Triton are of most interest for myself Along with Jamstec reports .

However , I'm not sure I treat the Thermocline as a Direct Straight Edge parallel line with the Equator from West back to East . Its far more complex , with Latitudal influences / injections / steering and even Surface Flows closer to the far East . Which probably will be discovered and Noted more Thoroughly , Once AGW fanatics realise that Oceanics such as ENSO are far more significant Climate ( trying hard not to spew ) drivers .

Not always. It is one component but certainly without it there will be no nino. There was a similar set up last summer and the warm water surfaced in the east only to die again. I suspect more needs to be done in research regarding the currents of both warm and cold water that move nth/sth from the poles and sub tropical regions into the tropics and their affect on killing off the equatorial warm/cold pools.

Once the water cools out east the large highs that form on that cooler water then act as engines to bring that cooler water to the equator. In effect further enhancing both themselves and the cold pool. The reverse is evident in nino.

It appeared last year that cold water was migrating up the coast of Sth America to assist what would become a significant lanina. As well as down from Nth America along their coastline also.

Check out the links below for some info as to the mechanics of what you guys are discussing

Wind Driven Surface Currents: Gyres Background

Wind Driven Surface Currents: Upwelling and Downwelling Background

Atmospheric Circulation
I would pay particular attention to the Walker Circulation and Hadley Cell info.

Enjoy!

Do El Nino's always mean above average temperatures and below average rainfall for much of Qld and is it possible to have an El Nino and still get average rainfall or slightly above ?

Thanks Andy . I'm sure your links will be valuable .

Unfortunately Its the intricacies and combination of all Three of these , Plus Solar , and Even Lunar Influences that combine to make this A very complex System . That will probably never really be fully understood in our Lifetime . With all this Technology in " Experts " hands they still can't accurately forecast 6 mths of Trend .

Never the less , every little opinion / question / and input is as Important as the Next . Perhaps after all it is as Basic as those links indicate .

Regardless , It's one Topic that has been Lost in the Great Big AGW / Carbon / Climate Change Debacle /Debate .

I haven't read before , many links to the idiosyncracies or be it Not Normal interuptions to the Surface Gyres . I'm sure there is monthly or Seasonal mid Latitude anomalies atmopsherically that can make these Basic explanations of the Walker Circ . Hadley Cells , become the infinitely accurate analysis that we crave . Perhaps its just Chaos Theory , never to be learned .
LWT's ( long Wave Troughs - in Southern Ocean ) have been a recent revelation in the Study of Its influences . I wonder how many other strong Atmospheric Short term patterns fill the Gap between the three dimensional look of Oceans Influences . Surely there could be up to 5-6 dimensions to this .

The walker circulation is a consequence of ocean temps of nino/nina imo and not the actual driver as some believe and is a basic explanatory tool to demonstrate the shift in winds . The countless variables in atmospheric pressure, ocean currents, ocean and air temps at varying elevations/ depths, the moons gravitational pull, the interuption of land mass on earth's rotational forces etc ,etc ,etc make long term predictions near impossible imo.

Chaos it is!

Southern Oracle, I've been around the traps a while (as has CF) I never even dreamed of implying my links posted above would come close to describing every facet of what drives ENSO! However, I do believe that by identifying some of the more fundamental mechanisms that drive general weather patterns, we can then begin to delve deeper into what influences 'changes' in the system.

So for further reading I would start looking at Westerly Wind Bursts, Kelvin Waves, Equatorial Current / Counter Currents....

Actually a great link I've read a few times is: Bob Tisdale - Equatorial currents before, during and after the 1997-98 El Nino

There was a lot of talk in the lead up to this Nina that it was the remnant Nina pattern in the atmosphere from last season that held off a Nino this season. I've been meaning to look into this a bit more but haven't had the time lately.

Then to expand your readings even further, you can start to look at the Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean for further clues as to how some events can be triggered and supported...

No doubt Yourself and CF are quite versed . I was commending your skill in posting links . Unfortunately I struggle to find time to collate links to everything I ramble on about . I take the view that there are many circles of understanding within this thread . I guess if people get my gist then very well . If i sound like I'm on another planet I'd appreciate people asking questions .

I have a strong understanding of all the available Literature. Although I haven't posted Long , when I have had Time I've read back through entire Threads .

The Problem that I've found is there isn't much actual literature when it comes to variations of Flow Rates / Directions of all the Known Thermoclines , Currents Surface Feeds , Ekman Spirals and Upwelling .

As for an El Nino Following an above average La Nina . I invite you or whovever to show me a Precedent or Two . Obviously there will be swings but from where I'm Looking Atmopsherically A Nina influence will drag on and influence further on than a El Nino Pattern . Example being 2009 / 2010 Dive to 2010 / 2011 .

The Early Eightees saw a Gradual Build back from Low level average Nina Years into a Strong Nino by 83 . But we see that happening in a Positively Dominated PDO cycle .

Again , my posts haven't really been a call for literature covering this . I'm looking for what isn't there , being there isn't enough Literature .
Don't get me wrong civilisation has advanced with many Tools to measure these . ( 60 Years ago Hundreds of Cyclones would have gone by un noticed by Humans ) . And now we are Watching MJO events/pulses like their MTV ......

So yeah , I'm Probably more complaining that maybe apart from Bob . There is not much in the way of new Groundbreaking { watershed , is probably a better term considering topic } analysis .

For everyone stressing about La Nina to El Nino transitions .

Link
"http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Weather456/comment.html?entrynum=357"

Isn't it the case that if we have La Nina, then South America is generally dry; whereas the reverse applies during El Nino? The massive floods in Lima, Peru at the moment just demonstrates that floods can occur any time.

I think you'll find that it is the western side of Andes / coastal Fringe of Both of Peru (Sth ) and Chile (Nth ) that are the Deserts that get heavy rain during El Nino . If there are floods this year like last On the Eastern ( Amazonian ) side of the Andes ( around Machu Pichu Feb 2010 ? ) , then that area is in the head waters of the Amazon and as such would be considered to be NOT that extraordinary .
As for Lima I beleive it is located in The western Desert zone . Haven't seen it on the News . I would have thought Nov 2009 - Feb 2010 would have seen Floods During the last Nino .!? The eastern side of the ANdes would more be a reflection of the Atlantic's influence ?????

Not really the Time to talk of Precip' totals with what faces QLD / NTh NSW in the next 2 weeks . YES = 2 weeks . (Many could see well above average for Jan in the last week ) . Whether the Monsoon sticks around after the passage of the MJO then add most of Feb too .

No matter what happens this week , the following week will follow up . So I'm pretty sure that nearly 90 % of the state ( Qld) will receive 150 mm's .

So I'm pretty sure some may have counted their chickens ..........

But seriously I hope all fair Okay and stay safe especially Mid this week and Mid next week .

Pray that surface features don't intensify or linger too long to amplify the Upper Low Feature , so here's hoping we don't see Flash flooding .

And for those in around and on The Darling Flood plains all the best in the Next few Months ( As beleive we already have Major Flooding upstream of Wilcannia ? Probably add Downstream of Menindee as early as the next week . { as releases ramp up and possible Trough sweeps down and across } .

On reflection I fully concentrate on forecasting for NSW/VIC/SA/WA areas and tropical rainfall forecasting has proven to be a little more difficult, and after current rains I tried another tropical rainfall forecast model correlation with each site using different ocean and atmospheric input variables.
The charts below shows the results as best I could get them for last season for 30 day rainfall summer actual means vs 30 day rainfall summer forecast for 2011...And the 30 day rainfall forecasts for this summer season 2012.
I have used only Broome, Darwin and Brisbane, as they correlated best, Cairns & Townsville proved more difficult.
Also I have shortened the period to 31st December to 31st March as months outside of this main summer rainfall period also proved more difficult.
Anyway, here are the results and forecasts.(PS: Brisbane is likely to be under rainfall forecast for January 2012 due to current situation)
Cheers

Daily soi 46!!

Thats what a tropical low over Darwin will do to the soi.

Yep, considering Darwin's pressure reading for soi purposes was around 998hPa yesterday, I would expect it will be a lot lower today, 1003hPa or so, which would still make a positive soi however not as extreme as yesterday.

On the subject, does anyone know how they come up with the official pressure reading for soi calculation? Is it an average for each hourly reading, or at a certain time of the day? Obviously atmospheric tides will produce different pressures at different times, 3am and 3pm being examples of when pressure is at its lowest, so they must come up with a mean reading??

From BOM site, but does not say when obs taken, but long paddock issue the daily late every afternoon, so I suspect it is the 3pm obs or an average of 9am & 3pm?

"For the mathematically minded:

There are a few different methods of how to calculate the soi. The method used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is the Troup soi which is the standardised anomaly of the Mean Sea Level Pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. It is calculated as follows:



[ Pdiff - Pdiffav ]
soi = 10 -------------------
SD(Pdiff)


where



Pdiff = (average Tahiti MSLP for the month) - (average Darwin MSLP for the month),
Pdiffav = long term average of Pdiff for the month in question, and
SD(Pdiff) = long term standard deviation of Pdiff for the month in question.

The multiplication by 10 is a convention. Using this convention, the soi ranges from about –35 to about +35, and the value of the soi can be quoted as a whole number. The soi is usually computed on a monthly basis, with values over longer periods such a year being sometimes used. Daily or weekly values of the soi do not convey much in the way of useful information about the current state of the climate, and accordingly the Bureau of Meteorology does not issue them. Daily values in particular can fluctuate markedly because of daily weather patterns, and should not be used for climate purposes. A table of monthly soi values is available here. Approximate 30-day values are often included in the weekly El Niño Wrap-Up. "

Thanks for the explanation BD...

Geez, I was a bit off with my prediction. soi of 41.70 today with Darwin pressure reading of 1000.5 hPa.

If we are in La Nina , how come my area and Rockhampton are missing out and will be below average for the month ?

What the () keeps causing the rain to miss Yeppoon twice so far this season ? Unless this is a normal phenomenon ?

My understanding is that La Nina (and El Nino) don't mean guaranteed wet (or dry) along the East Coast. There is still variability.

La Ninas, El Nino's, IOD's, the SAM, NAO, AO. PDO, MJO and etc and etc are all oscillations of the "climate".
Their particular oscillation phase along with the interactions with all of the other global climate climate system oscillation phases just shift the actual weather systems, the highs, the lows, the front's, the troughs, the jetstreams and etc around into slightly different configurations but in the end, what affects us all is still just plain old fashioned weather that we all experience from day to day, everyday.

When a particular climate oscillation system, ie La Nina, is operating, it merely shortens or lengthens the odds that a particular weather pattern will be more likely, repeat "more likely", but never ever guaranteed, to occur in a particular location.

Ultimately it is still all "weather" and the randomness that the term "weather" implies regardless of the current climate oscillatory system.

Here's a quote from the BOM ENSO Wrap-Up:


Essentially, La Niñas don't equal hard and fast above average rainfall for every town and city in eastern Australia. Although I believe this year we are seeing 'net' above average rainfall, sometimes it's just luck of the draw whether that moisture makes it to your particular city or not.

In any case, summer isn't over yet and some longer range models are pointing toward some wetness for coastal QLD in the coming weeks, so don't give up hope yet.

The La Nina looks like it has just hit its peak low in the last few weeks - at around -1.13C - so a weak event.

The 3 month lag means that there is still 3 months of above-normal precipitation to come (and then it will take another 3 months for the La Nina to wind down to neutral so extend that above-average precipitation out for at least 5 to 6 months yet).

It is a weak event, however, so it should not be much above normal.

New ENSO regression/correlation maps produced by the NCEP for temperature and precipitation (3 month averages) here.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/regressions/

This is the correlation map for precipitation in an El Nino over the JFM period. For a La Nina, just reverse the sign (ie. the Browns turn to Greens and the Greens switch to Browns).




Have a look at other three months periods. NDJ seems to be the highest correlation period for Australia.

Wow, has anyone seen the latest MJO forecasts? Looks to be a very strong pulse set to push right over the western pacific! Will be interesting to see what affects this has on the weak Nina over the coming weeks.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Yer, CS will be inyeresting to see if it does have any effect.
Now, with sub-surface I have the last TAO plots depth on my wall dated 12th Dec 2011
and comparing with current lot, any change from some sort of La Nina to El Nino
is a long way off, as the only real change is warm areas to west under surface have strengthened
and cold under surface to east have alsio strengthened.
There has been little movement at all in their positions, maybe very very slightly eastwards movement...
but, it is a long, long way to go to get warmer than normal water from west to east Pacific Ocean yet!

We could all do with a neutral year IMO.

Just going by my feelings on the current situation and just for down here in SE Aus it really seems like we are returning to some sort of normality. January was quite dry here but near to normal maximum temps. The extremely muggy air that has dominated us down here for most of the last 2 years seems to be drying out to something a bit more like what we are accustomed to in summer.

I actually feel like a normal year, i.e. neutral ENSO and very close to the averages is on the cards. So normal rainfall following normal seasonality, and average temps. The last 2 years here have been almost a humid subtropical climate more similar to Sydney's than what we should be getting.

For those who said this La Nina was doing very little for the Eastern states only few short weeks ago and others told you to remain patient...

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8413290/record-floods-batter-nsw-queensland

It's interesting to note that in NOAA's most recent La Nina advisory there saying there is evidence of a downwelling phase of an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave, which may increase temperatures across the Pacific in the next couple of months. My limited understanding is that Kelvin Waves are initiated by WWB’s which help to force the warmer waters from the western warm pool east, however i have not noticed any significant WWB’s lately, so what do you suppose has triggered this Kelvin Wave?

Sorry if this seems like a silly question, but i'm just trying to better my understanding of the ENSO.

There is - and it's about half-way across. It is a bit stronger than the November event, but so far it does not appear to be influencing the temps (warming them) too much...



see also:
longtitude / time plot

I have not been following this too closely to be honest, but from the above the genesis (WWB) would have been somtime at the very end of 2011.

but won't the reflected Rossby Wave trigger further cooling?

The Pacific Trade Winds and the ENSO correlation seems to be continuing.


http://img525.imageshack.us/img525/2231/ensovs175wtradewindsjan.png





The winds look to be slowing down a little in February.

Starting to look like a La Nina Modoki as the Eastern equatioral Pacific has warmed right up even along the South American coast.... Signs of La Nina nearing its end?

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

Any thoughts on whats near Taiwan ? and what you think of the upcoming IOD ???

Haven't looked SO will soon. By April we will have a clearer idea what the IOD will do but if I were to guess it will either be Neutral or weak Negative IOD this Year.

IOD whats it has done since 2006 (Winter & Spring)...

2006 Positive IOD
2007 Positive IOD
2008 Positive IOD
2009 Neutral
2010 Negative IOD
2011 Weak Positive IOD

Jamstec are going for negative IOD at this early stage http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en just change the period to sept-nov in the target season box to see the ocean set up.

Yeah the last 3 or 4 monthly forecasts JAMSTEC have indicated that we may have a weak Negative IOD but I would wait until April to be sure cos I have seen it backflip after it says something during the Summer and by the time it gets to April it does a 180c

Given all the positive events in the recent past, one would have to think the odds would be in favour of this year producing some sort of negative event.

Probably means nothing, but the coast of South America is really starting to warm up now, with anomalies approaching +3c

I note that the GWO has cycled down into the negaives (La Nina mode) again over February...

I don't draw much of anything from this - but I hark back to last year when I pointed out exactly the same thing and suggested that the predicted El Nino for 2011/12 that was being discussed at that time was not a sure thing [does the atmosphere or sub-surface have more influence on ENSO state?].



The only difference is that the soi (and now below borderline Nina territory) is a fair bit lower:



But the sub surface is about the same...

Does anyone know when JMA normally updates? Still doesn’t seem to have updated, seems a bit late this month.

Edit: oops, hadn’t refreshed the page!

Are we able to predict at this time of the year whether an El Nino will develop towards the end of the year ?

At this stage of the year, I think that most people will agree that predicting what the ENSO state will be at Christmas is more an art than science. The austral autumn (boreal spring) has got an unofficial term "The Predictability Barrier".

Every year we have discussions about this time of year on the success rates of the various dynamic models (CFS / GMAO etc) and how accurate they are. And even experts can get it wrong. James Hansen suggested at the end of last March that it was likely that we would have a strong El Nino over this austral summer:




linky

JAMSTEC has been on the money past 2 Years was forecasting both La Ninas as early as the previous Christmas for the next Year (Next Spring). At the moment JAMSTEC is predicting Neutral for 2nd part of 2012 so given it has a great record of late I'm sticking to that at the moment.

I read somewhere that Joe Bastardi expects a flip to El Nino this year, I’m not sure how good he is at the long range stuff tho.

If I had to guess I would say El Nino more likely 2013