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#1049788 - 28/12/2011 16:35 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: ColdsnapIII]
Jayson Black Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2002
Posts: 435
Loc: Near Tocumwal (Murray River)
Its a bit early to tell, but I was looking at what WZ thinks the synoptic situation will be like in a week and it looks like things may get very troughy around the 4th or 5th. I am pretty much on the Murray so unfortunately I will be copping those 40c days you mentioned frown so I am really hoping there will be some t-storms near by that I can chase and cool off underneath of. I guess we just have to wait and see how things pan out etc
_________________________
Formerly Known as "Supercell Kid"
My Wx: http://wxug.us/1r14c

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#1050545 - 30/12/2011 13:05 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Jayson Black]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Looks like we'll have to wait till well into the weekend after this before the next chance of a rain event in Vic...

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#1050593 - 30/12/2011 16:28 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1443
Hmm that reminds me a bit of last year mid Janruary where we had a really unstable period where it was rainy but not too heavy.

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#1050773 - 31/12/2011 10:04 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: TheAnt]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
OK - I'll call "game on" for later next weekend into early next week for the next thundery event involving humid conditions.

I encourage someone to start a thread for 7-9/1/12 as both GFS and AccG are mooting something like this.....


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#1050775 - 31/12/2011 10:14 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17706
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Petros - can we keep the new threads at least less than 6 days out thanks. You made this thread for the purpose of discussing upcoming events so leave discussion here till its within the 'likely to happen' period... (ie. Monday)

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#1050895 - 31/12/2011 18:54 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: teckert]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: teckert
Petros - can we keep the new threads at least less than 6 days out thanks. You made this thread for the purpose of discussing upcoming events so leave discussion here till its within the 'likely to happen' period... (ie. Monday)


AT LAST! - Thanks Teckert smile

Now we have a quantified timeline acceptable to the Forum owners. So 6 days it is.

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#1050899 - 31/12/2011 19:07 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17706
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
lol.... cmon mate.... you have been here for 8 years.... its always been about 5-6 days. And I have communicated that to you enough when you wanted this thread started....
Why the sudden issue with it over the last few months? You know just as well as anyone that the models are useless more than about 3 or so days out for an accurate forecast.
Anyways, now that you have this re-jigged into your memory hopefully you dont have to worry about it any longer.

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#1050904 - 31/12/2011 19:22 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: teckert]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Teckert - equally you "gurus" just dont seem to grasp the concept that many (most?) of the forum followers dont give a toss about what the weather WILL be when its locked in 3 days out wink

What we like is what CAN happen (and comes off more often than you "3 dayers" would like to admit) - THATS what tickles our fancy!

We dont have a reputation to loose if we are wrong, we just want to have a grasp of the possibilities "out there", and follow that day by day. For me, I handle the disapointment of what could've-but didnt come off with a look out at the next system to come smile

Another forum that intially promised this
aspect was flooded with new members only 18 monhs ago. You are at risk of stiffling the potential of this forum if you insist on posts so timely and technically correct. Just my opinion, and good bye to all if I get banned for saying this. BTW - Happy New Year smile

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#1050905 - 31/12/2011 19:24 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17706
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
???? What are you on about?
You have this thread to talk about upcoming weather longer than 5-6 days out??? No-one is stopping you talking about long term forecasts. Just not on date or event specific threads longer than the 5-6 days, which has been the policy all along.

and yer hope you have a good New Years.... wink

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#1051003 - 01/01/2012 10:41 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: teckert]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Still looking like theres some dampness "out there" Monday week - now more focused on the states E...


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#1051068 - 01/01/2012 15:05 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
duckweather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 2769
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
Hi guys smile
For what it's worth from this weather-tech-knowledge deprived storm lover, I get some warped sense of anticipation from challenging myself watching charts etc. from 5, 6, 7 or more days out from a potential event.
Got excited with myself one event passed (month ago) and blurted my 'prediction' of the timing of an event and I was horribly wrong. But I'm even though I am still learning, I'm still challenging myself (albeit quietly to myself) what I feel maybe excitedly coming along for Vic..
The 3rd (not so big)(pssst my b'day - so it better be good) and the 7th'ish are my next predictions for some interesting tickle-me-pink weather systems grin crazy
Happy new year all wink


Edited by duckweather (01/01/2012 15:09)

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#1051073 - 01/01/2012 15:22 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: duckweather]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1443
Well imo it's not worth trying to predict too much longer then 5-6 days out, models constantly turn and it's extremely hard to predict longer then a few days out accurately, the cool change on Tuesday should bring me some much needed relief from this heat tho.

As for next weekend from the models so far looks like it'll go south before intesifying over the Eastern parts of the state, and looks like a whole week of nice 22-26 temperatures rather then this heat.
Happy new year btw


Edited by TheAnt (01/01/2012 15:23)

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#1051234 - 02/01/2012 10:24 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: TheAnt]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Models predict, turn, and often turn back to original prediction again (aka GFS for example). My experience has shown that you ignore GFS day 7-8 at your peril.

Last night the models had Sunday with a cut-off low passing over Tassie, thus rain affecting much of coastal Vic - circa 10mm in parts.

My interest is with the potential for storms kicking off along the NE edge of it.

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#1051241 - 02/01/2012 10:55 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1443
Oh yeah for sure you need to stay on the lookout but before 3 or so days they can change a lot, so it's just hard a week out.

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#1051261 - 02/01/2012 11:46 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: TheAnt]
Katyer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/01/2011
Posts: 457
Loc: Taylors Hill
Happy New Year to all of you. First chance I have had to read the latest in the forums.

I always enjoy reading all of the comments and predictions, whether they eventuate or not.
I have nowhere near the knowledge some of you but I am slowly gaining an insight. Most of that
is thanks to Petros, Thunderunder and Ant, who are always ready to answer a question or give me some tips on looking at models etc. Most of all its fun learning.

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#1051424 - 02/01/2012 22:41 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Katyer]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
GFS is certainly downplaying the next significant event.... here it is.




At this stage the early models musings (AccG/GFS) look to be wrong. I can live with that. And yet they may be right, I can live with that too! wink


Edited by bigwilly (02/01/2012 23:11)

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#1051536 - 03/01/2012 13:36 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Now GFS is bringing the system for Vic late next weekend/early next week a bit closer, at this stage I'll call it a "near miss" - but plenty of water to flow under the bridge yet!


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#1051747 - 04/01/2012 11:24 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The similar scenario continues for next weekend/early week after..
the next chance of storms and some rain.

Something to watch also, is the lick of cold air (blue line) that has the potential to splash up near Vic circa next Tuesday. That would re-invigorate the cut-off low shown below.......


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#1051849 - 04/01/2012 16:41 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
TheAnt Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2011
Posts: 1443
apocalypse approaching when the max is 32 degrees lower then the minimum. lol

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#1051878 - 04/01/2012 18:11 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: TheAnt]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: TheAnt
apocalypse approaching when the max is 32 degrees lower then the minimum. lol


Geez, when I posted about the lick of cold air..... - I didnt mean THAT cold wink

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