Hi all, rather deep low approaches the state this weekend. It will end up quite some way to the south but still looks to be a weather maker. Certainly going to generate some high winds and perhaps on Saturday be a bit warmer in the east than might be expected. Wont be a great bit of news for any fires smoldering around. Chance of storms possibly mainly out west Saturday and Sunday a big question mark depending on what model. ACCG and CMC suggest reasonable rain band forming , GFS a few sprinkles and EC has had some rain on Sunday for days. The following days will be cool and maybe showers continuing in coastal parts. At the end of the period (Wednesday) there is a hint of a low off the east coast but might be its own thread if its close enough to effect E Gippy (or more)

Yep Ruckle, a mixed bag in terms of any decent rain from it, storms ahead, if they can form late Saturday will be what I'm looking for out this way.

The wind for the poor campers on Sunday night is not good!

Heres CMC's present musing.......

Hopefully some decent rain and intense thunderstorms for the Corryong region this weekend the last system was almost non-existent, a very poor way to begin 2012 and the second half of the 2011-2012 Storm Season

Brisbane Storm Chasers showing some reasonable instability for Northeast Victoria, and certainly into Southeast NSW and the ACT on Sunday, just in time before I head off to Merimbula on the NSW South Coast next week!

00z ACCR has stepped up for Sunday morning/Sat night for some reasonable rain across central parts.

Sorry Ruckle about the possible low straight after some of the models are indicating rain coming from the West Friday and Saturday, so what's that about?

I'll take a stab at what your asking TheAnt, if I get it wrong I am sorry but that sentence doesnt make much sense.

There will be some cold air brushing the VIC coast on Wednesday, it did look like this would help a low form close to the east coast. It now appears unlikely to create anything more than a few drizzly showers in exposed coastal parts.

As for the latest runs I have seen, havent had EC yet but general theme of the others remains a storm chance in the west Sat Pm and evening, spreading eastward before possibly becoming a solid band over central parts in the early hours of Sunday but running out of puff as it goes east of there.

Will be paying attention to low over SW WA to see if its able to pull down any bonus extra moisture into this system.

Wow, EC has the thundery band progressing a little quicker, it also keeps the low mentioned above in play for Wednesday with a nice drink for coastal areas in the east of the state as well as some breezy conditions.

Saturday it has the band just about to Melbourne by 12z and looking reasonably solid as well. Then for Sunday as it progresses east the north side of eastern highlands do much better than the south side.

Has showers in coastal parts till Wednesday picks up again.

Thanks Ruckle, although the BOM 10 day charts are showing some rain feeding in from SA Friday and Saturday, albeit not much.

Which Friday are you talking about, tomorrow? ACCG has the band pretty solid as far as central parts into Sunday morning but pretty much washes out to dribs and drabs for the eastern portion of the state.

Norwegian has me at home 1mm initially, then 9 now up to 13mm for this upcoming weekend. I am starting to get my hopes up for 7-10mm.

Yeah should've mentioned next Friday when the possiblity of the low forming in the Eastern parts is.

Since Christmas Day and the hail storm I am really wary of thunderstorm activity now.

I don't mind the rain etc.. and a lightning show, but these intense storms with the
large hail stones and the destruction they leave is just awful.

The houses around here that are damaged are waiting on insurance to get repaired.
Any further events would be a nightmare for them.

AccG has had a chance to digest this one, shows enough rain for this event to be notable....

The good news for you Katyer then is that these seem to be relatively fast moving, and also the fact that the Supercells on christmas day aren't something you'll see once a year or so, they were some of the worst.

12z run has GFS mulling with pulling some more moisture down from the NW for this weekend. Of more interest is the nice rotation south of WA on the satellite, fingers crossed its able to pull more moisture down

... and out at the end of the thread (Wed) - CMC (alone though) is flirting with adding a dollop of cold air (which would help EC's ECL scenario for Wed/Thur).

Well the 00z run has me cautiously deciding to not water the garden this evening. Satellite has given me further encouragement. Norwegian has me with 30mm, Im still hopeful of getting 10mm maybe even close to 15mm, models have slowed things a teeny bit for weekend. Still looks good for showers behind this till mid week, particularly over eastern coastal parts. Should have little peaks in activity as fronts whiz by.

Yeah, our local BOM forecast has no storms for Sat and only a chance for Sun. Norwegian give us circa 12mm, with a 7mm top up mid week.

At least its a bit of "weather" - eh?

Great day here today though 26C light easterly, a bit of cloud - great for water-skiing in Gippsland.

Hey Ruckle and Petros,

Models or not, I'm still watering the garden tonight ... if only cos tomorrow looks drying and Sunday seems not a dead cert. And Wednesday's a bit far out both for model accuracy and my plants' thirst.

BTW, who's this Norwegian chappie or lady who's giving you rainfall advice? Could you put me in touch?

Hey Thunder Bob, probably a good idea to water. As you said, good drying day out your way tomorrow.

Nice looking satellite atm.

Norwegian link is I think like a spot forecast based on or from EC model. Just adjust the place from my link.

http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Footscray/long.html

Thanks Ruckle. I've had a look, changed the location and bookmarked. The site suggests that I'll only get lett nedbor on Sunday.

Well satellite looks good this morning, particularly if you imagine some thickening up as the day goes on. ACC and GFS have jumped right off this system but CMC and EC still pretty keen on a reasonable band affecting most parts. In fact EC even has a 25-50mm area NE of Melbourne by Sunday morning.Still hopeful of at least 10mm. Obstacle in the way is some nasty dry air near the surface.

Wednesday still looking very windy showery and cool out on the east coast (and increasingly central parts as well). Between then and this weekend some mizzle and wind along the coast.

You're right Ruckle ... both ACC and GFS have backed off ... today/Sunday and ... even more so for Wed for what had looked decent falls along the East Gippsland coast. Current radar, however,showing light falls coming in earlier and faster than what (I thought) was expected. CMC is indicating, however, some good falls over central parts tomorrow. We sahall see, I guess. Going out to start watering again, hee, hee.

Back edge of band already thickening. Probably see some pretty good convection on the back side as the day goes on. If the stuff in front can aid in moistening the air a little there could be some decent storms this evening out west (in terms of rain production), they will then become the band for the rest. A good satellite watching day!

What I don't understand is why Sunday is going to be 27? Isn't the front meant to push through the morning?

Those Norweigan models showing something not very different from Tuesday of this week again, thickening in the morning before clearing mid-morning again.

I never check any overseas weather models because our weather pattern in south is different to North of World....

Its better to understand our own weather pattern so we know its right.

The front might hit Victoria early Sunday Morning as Wind has to change to NW wind first then NW to W then cool W/SW.

Depends how fast the low move along Eastwards.

Looks like there will be a decent chunk of rain tommorow thats for sure.

Thanks Ant. I really hope that to be the case.

This is going to be a problem for so many houses around my way that have extensive damage to their roofs from Xmas Day storms. The main street we drive down to access the freeway we can see so many houses still with huge tarp coverings. I have never seen so much damage over this way or in Melbourne itself. Maybe they are waiting for insurance to assess and then repair. It must be a worry for them when storms and heavy rain is predicted. I love looking at weather patterns etc, and I know some people love storms, but honestly I can't understand why when you witness the aftermath sometimes.

Fair bit of activity going on over in SA. Looks like it is heading straight to Adelaide.
Trying to work out the wind factor and if it is pushing it west and then down south to Mt Gambier. If so we might get some of it, comes across to us that way often from what I have seen, but it might burn itself out a bit as well.

Melbourne will more likely then not see something either redevelop from that line or develop out of nothing during the morning, no storms can really last that long in a line, even if it flattens into a large rain band it's unlikely it'll carry all the way into Melbourne.

No one likes the damage storms cause, but that's nature, its beautiful and destructive at the same time.

Good steady rain for over an hour here. And totally unimpressed with the 93% humidity, feeling like crap already, with a black and puffy eye, from a bee bite.

Ahhh...I must be learning slowly, I said similar to a friend about 10 mins ago, who lives in SA and was telling me to "watch out". lol!

Meso, I understand the "nature effect" and I love seeing lightning and some of the fantastic pics posted here and on the Weather Channel site. However, I think you would be hard pressed to find anyone who has witnessed the destruction agree that it is "beautiful". Same as humidity, some people love it and tropical feel, others hate it. All a matter of opinion.

Hope the eye gets better soon mate. Remember a day like that here last summer. We were in the local beer garden waiting for a cool wet change at 10pm and 30C and finally it arrived, and it just felt warmer and stickier.

Been a rather funny day here in Corryong, Northeast Victoria today... was barely 13C on my thermometer when my girlfriend and I got up to watch the sunrise at about 6AM, but it probably hit about 33C this afternoon, and certainly felt like it! Quite humid too and breezy at times. An interesting variety of cloud types here in the Upper Murray today: cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus, altostratus, altocumulus and cumulus.

I reckon tommorows best chance for the metro area is mostly embedded cells.

Just issued ...
____________________________________
Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds
for people in the West and South Gippsland, East Gippsland and North East forecast districts

Issued at 9:28 pm EDT on Saturday 7 January 2012.
Weather Situation

A trough approaching western Victoria will move across eastern Victoria on Sunday with vigorous northwesterly flow forecast ahead of the trough about elevated regions.

Locally damaging north to northwesterly winds averaging 65-75 km/h with peak gusts of around 120 km/h are forecast for areas above about 1000m of the West and South Gippsland, East Gippsland and North East forecast districts.

Winds will ease as they shift to the west to northwest late Sunday morning or early Sunday afternoon.
______________________________________________

Could be a bit uncomfortable in Gippsland and NE tomorrow.

Currently, despite, the appearance on the radar, is just struggling to rain here north-east of Bairnsdale.

Bob

Friends of mine on another site are telling me they had thunder and rain in Maidstone, and the other one in Reservoir said they have hail and wind in all directions. Doesn't look that intense on radar. We have more gusty nth wind here and a bit of rain but nothing much.

Dont know what your friends were talking about Katyer, only decent amount of activity just then was near Avalon.

got a bit crazy up this way - high winds and lots of raised dust for 30 or so minutes around 7 ish. all gone now and cooling down!

Ant, I have to wonder myself what they were on about, it sure didn't look like that
to me on radar, however, I didn't argue. It is very gusty wind around here so they may have had something. I would like to know if Ruckle got anything in Footscray area.

Ruckle just got home and is a little freaked out at referring to himself in the 3rd person! We appear to have had 1 or 2mm and my stongest wind gust (not overly excessive) was at 831pm. radar is interesting because of the sheer slowness of activity. GFS back on the band wagon for us here at home and in the city. I am sticking with my 10mm minimum prediction as I have for 3 pages and an outside chance of 15...

So it looks like my friend in Maidstone was right about the rain etc.. Ruckle ?
Not sure about the hail in Reservoir, but maybe ??

Well I doubt thunder (although I wasnt here in fairness) but they definitely had rain and the wind is gusty so I guess the UN weather wise might have got excited. As for hail, those people must be on the wacky tobacky...no offence..

Starting to look a bit interesting to my West. Someone's gonna get drenched.

None taken Ruckle....my thoughts as well LOL!

Where is that headed Blackacubra ? toward Melb or more North ?

Not sure Katyer. I thought it might miss us, but seems to have come more this way. Just started raining again, so we'll have to see where it goes. At least I'll be able to see what it does with the left eye again. It's now half open. Damn Bee.

That cell aproaching Renmark is either losing Steam or The Mildura radar is Faulty ?

I think the Cell's run out of Puff, Southern Oracle. For the moment anyhow. Might just need some kip, and crank up again for you guy's

I think I might of actually predicted something properly!

A bit of both Kayter. Mildura radar is inferior for detecting heavy rain, which is why VIC needs an upgraded radar at Mildura, and a new radar around Horsham.

10mm or so has fallen so far, perhaps another 10-15, depending on how quick this low dives SSE.

[quote=Katyer]So it looks like my friend in Maidstone was right about the rain etc.. Ruckle ?
Not sure about the hail in Reservoir, but maybe ??

Ditto Ruckle. Moderately heavy rain last night, lots of wind, but no thunder or hail in Nth Fitzroy.

These showers should give possibly another millimetre or so, decent totals so far.

7.4mm emptied out before this current band that looks to be the wind shift.

6mm of rain, no hail or thunder. So after the glitch on Xmas Day, the storm force field is back to normal, it must have taken the day off. LOL.

unless I've jumped the gun and this afternoon is Armageddon, I got caught up in the hype again. Where I am got some rain and that is all.

12mm @ Echuca overnight Moama over the river 2.4mm, 6klms away

Fishman, what hype are you referring to? I am curious.

Nice shower here just after the wind shift. This little convergence line will be interesting to watch as it makes its way east, if it holds it will head into the warmer parts of the day over eastern parts of the state, may get a little more vigorous. BUT, lets see if it makes it over the hills first..

0.1mm of rain was all I got when I checked my gauge this morning, was hoping for a bit more, maybe later today, just started spitting outside.

I don't know how it'll possibly get to 28C here in Corryong this afternoon, only way that's gonna happen is if there's a lot of clear air (22C outside atm). As for storms, something may eventuate later, hopefully.

Baro has plunged overnight to 1000 hPa now, frequent light showers in the very early morning provided 1.5mm in the gauge.

Currently a fully overcast, dead calm 23C.

Delivering/retreiving kids all over the place yest, was calm warm and sunny at Seaspray yest am, then cloudy with a rain spit or two on way to Tulla at Morwell early arvo. Generally calm overcast 29-31C between Maffra and Melb yest arvo/evening. A lot cooler here circa 8:30pm with moderate easterly pumping into the system that provided Melb's late night rain.

Next Wednesday, still has that lick of cold air coming up through Tassie to spawn an ECL (to far out E to be a rainmaker for Vic) - BUT a freezing cold miserable windy day for Gippsland campers (I've got one of my kids down at Tidal R for 6 nights ).

Heres CMC's latest for mid-Wednesday.....

Heading away for a few days down to East Gippsland to do some fishing so I am not overly happy about the weather. Oh well cant have it perfect all the time. If you are not impressed by the Sat Pic at the moment then you dont like your weather. I dont think the low S/W of Tassie will have much affect on us apart from some cold air but man it looks good.

2.7 further mm from the morning band makes me 10.1mm for this event. Fingers crossed the moisture holds so front around that brilliant looking low can trigger some more showers as it comes across this afternoon. Great Cirro cumulus display atm as sky breaks up.

Yes, Lindsay,, it's a classic isn't it!

Near on 20mm from the overnight activity and this morning.
Well picked by EC.
Onto Wednesday!

10.5mm up to 9am this morning, and a further 4mm since. Happy with that, but not impressed with the stickyness!

Yeah, Loo, I've kept a copy of the sat pic. Always good to be reminded of how beautiful Mother Nature can be at times!

Were we expecting it to get cooler after this? I think I need a shower.

16 ml overnight and then another 8 ml this morning in a short downpour around 10.30 - 11.00 humidity is damn high.

Yes , Not pleasant .

Awoken from my siesta in rather a sweat.

29 Deg. C / 60% Humidity .
Sleepy Carrum .

Hi All
Just got back from our Christmas camping break at Turrumbary Weir up past Echuca. Didn't manage a storms over the fortnight and of course rain came in last night and then a goo down pour at about 6.00 to 10.00 am this morning up there. Just enough that we have to re hang annexe, kids tents etc to dry out.
Also dropped the rainguage and smashed it just for christmas day here so I cannot give you any rainfall totals for stewarton either.
Sure is good to be home and have a proper shower.

Yeah Loo - memorable Satloop image atm!

Funny day here, muggy/sweaty/hot at lunchtime, heavy low cloud with several wannabe showers while playing golf. Then a sunny mild late arvo 28C. Just the 1.5mm in my gauge for this thread.

Petros - The old man reported 15mm in 20 mins from a very tropical downpour late this afternoon with one strike of lightning to the south near Longford. I take that it didnt hit Maffra as well.

Today I moved into my new home for the next 6 months in Traralgon. Was a wet night in Camberwell last night with heavy rain waking me up at 3am and again at 6am. Light drizzly rain continued on and off until I left Melbourne at just after 9.30am-not much fun moving all my stuff to the truck. Welcomed to a steamy day in Gippsland with a spell of heavy rain in the early arvo delivering 5mm down the road at the Latrobe Valley AWS.

Looking forward to posting from a bit closer to home for the first time in a while...

Aha Peng - that would explain why the Greyhound races were cancelled at Sale this evening!

hiya back again, got 13.6mm here @ q overnight but zilch since 9am today. cheers, dvc

Cracked 29 again today with blustery and gradually drier winds brefore cool off as winds tended SW. Weak front tomorrow night, a better one Tuesday night and a little low that should give a windy showery day out east in particular on Wednesday.

Same here. The Sale situation is that they got 20mm or so very quickly late this arvo. Funny, intense little showers having been moving around. I'm just on the edge of one now which is running NW - SE through Bruthen and over the coast at Lakes Entrance. Have only accumulated a few mm over last night and today.

The wind really picked up Bayside this afternoon. We were training at the local Life Saving club in wave heights between 1m - 1.5m around 4.30pm.

24C here atm, another 1.5mm onight to give us 3mm for system. Cool westerly has set in.

Things are still on track to deteriorate on Wednesday. I made sure my daughter had plenty of warm clothes packed for her trip to the Prom last Sat, (a good practical example of why we are always alert to "what might be" at the end of the the model runs eh? ).

Now well and truly on the radar of AccR......

Yes, Petros, still in line for drop in temp and very strong south-westerlies. But the rain totals seem patchy. I've just been looking at BoM's Forecast Explorer for Wed. Interesting to see how, with the strong, direct SWly, rainfall totals of any significance are on the blocking high country: South Gipp hills, Otways and N/S ridges and plateaux of the Alps.

Does anyone know if the Explorer is taken from one model, a compositive or what?

Warm(ish)with gusty westerly here at present.

Yeah Bob, this cold out-break was never mooted to be a significantly wet event by any of the models (most jumped on and off this scenario several times over the past 6 days) - but it IS a significant cold outbreak. Especially if you were camped at Tidal R like my daughter currently is, and this arvo GFS twists the knife with this bleak outlook......




[edit] – 1.5mm rain last night, a mostly sunny day here with increasing SW wind, warm 26.7C recorded at circa 1pm, Baro has risen to 1007 hPa.

LOL, UKmet, its colder at 500hpa over Sthern VIC at Wed 00z than in Minnesota in the US at the same time (admittedly having quite the warm spell atm). All jokes aside its looking rather windy , cool and increasingly showery Wednesday. There were a few shwrs about the SW coast today I noticed. Lot warmer at home than I thought, still around 24 right now in fact.

Following up from Pengaz's post yest re: Sale arvo rain - local BOM office recorded 26mm at Sale yesterday!!! (we got 1.5mm only 16Km to the N).

... and a total of 40mm out in Wurruk with the bulk of it falling in 3/4 of an hour!

Cooler with gusty winds down here today.

Yes, Petros, you're right. It was just, as I was writing, I had in my head that a few days ago there was an indication of significant falls (on Wed)in SE Vic. And, yes, the weather's not going to be too good at (esp on the western side of)the Prom on Wednesday. Cheers.

AArrrgggh ,

Don't Stress Petros . Getting caught out camping at Wilsons Prom is what makes us Vicco's stronger . It's a birth right and a character building experience . I have to chuckle everytime I here others gettin washed out of Camp spots , These days people still laugh at me when I pack all sorts of clothes " Just in case " .....

Maybe a quick jaunt down there with Tarps and some winter woolies would be appreciated and make you the favourite parent going fwd in the next few months .

I laugh so hard when travelling in Northern parts of Aust , and people complain about wet weather and still think back to days in Southern exposed locations or even worse in that rain magnet of days gone by like The Strzlecki's .

Re the dog track, apparently the rain caused a wash-out of the gravel surface over a section, so the event had to be abandoned.

Few drops overnight. Enough to wet the concrete a little. Should a reasonable amount of shower activity today at least around the coast.

Brrr! Summer's gone for the time being, 20c with cold winds. Looking at Sat Pic lots of cloud coming from the NW low between Port Hedland and Broome. I wonder if that will make a difference to any expected rainfall in Vic?

I'm always fishing around for different animations on our weather systems. Found this one, which some of you may already watch out for anyway
rainfall across Australia - animated current
Check out that beautiful spiral, as it was, passing south of Oz recently.

Woke to a light shower of rain this morning, quite cool and gusty WNW'ly blowing atm. 20C. Tomorrow is still looking very snotty.

[edit] - the cold air for tomorrow is now showing up on the Vis Sat-loop as a vertical line of cloud well S of the continent in line with the WA/SA border. Moving N at a great rate of knots (like the wind we have outside here atm).

another 1 mm overnight here and tracksuit on - feels like autumn!

That's coming from a looooong way south ... with embedded showers and penguins.

This is what happens when you pack the winter coats away.. Hope your daughter and her mates stay dryish and keep the food up Petros.

Heading down to the Prom to pick her up midday Thursday - I'll bet she will be glad to get home! - such a shame, a week ago and it would have been fantastic at Tidal R.

Wind has turned cold here now - hasnt let up all day. We had 0.5mm in the dawn shower today to give us 3.5mm for this event. A sunny period let us get to 24.8C (circa midday) but its a cold 19C now (less with the wind chill that the campers are experiencing along Vic's coastline).

After all the BS with the forum guru's with my "too early call" for tomorrows weather (in the Possible Events to come thread a week ago) - now we have my local BOM forecasting SNOW for 2 consecutive days!! Yes, we are all familiar with the "it can sometimes snow at Christmas in Victoria" - but what about 2 days in a row mid-January!! I bet Global Warmist/Alarmists will claim it as more evidence that CO2 is causing it all.

Anyhow, often the systems forecast 8-10 days DO come off eh?

Heres the BOM local forecast for the next 2 days for Gippsland:

Wednesday 11 January

Partly cloudy. Scattered showers with possible hail, falling as snow above 1400 metres. The chance of thunderstorms from the late morning until evening. Winds west to southwesterly averaging 35 to 45 km/h, reaching 60 km/h at times, becoming southwesterly up to 55 km/h around midday. Overnight temperatures falling to between 5 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching between 11 and 18.

Latrobe Valley 11 17

Thursday 12 January

Partly cloudy. Isolated showers until evening, falling as snow above 1600 metres early in the morning. Winds west to southwesterly averaging 15 to 25 km/h, reaching 35 km/h at times. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 10 with daytime temperatures reaching between 16 and 21.

Hmm this thread was started on the 5th and thats the first time this low was mentioned in the other thread, "lick of cold air"mentioned on the 4th in other thread. Not sure what the drama is about. The other thread is great for speculating, this was started 6 days ago, might need extending into Thursday for eastern parts (please mods)and has worked well. I am confused.

In any event, had 0.6mm from last nights little bit of weather, a high of 20.5 today. Expect about 3mm tops from this and will probably get enough sun to crack 20 tomorrow. Eastern burbs and even more so appropriately facing parts of Gippsland coast should be in for much higher totals and wind and cooler temps associated. For those of us that dont like heat- happy times. For those who are camping, as mentioned above - yikes!

Another example of a Cut Off , forming well west of Bass Strait . These warmer waters in and south of the Bight at the tail end of The Leuwin Current have really caught most models and BOM on occasion 3-4 four days out . Note they changed the forecast two days out on Monday .
Well done Petros , I myself are back working ( inside - for now ) so was non plussed .

This does however ring a bell with what was progged early on in models for Boxing day except the energy has come up from the south from this , as opposed to WNW then . Note the Wrap around involved in the First system that dropped off WA last week and passed on the weekend would probably be the catalyst for this system . I wonder how much moisture will be available for this system to drop . 10-15 mm anyone ?

Think 10-15mm is pretty reasonable for a few spots in the right area, facing winds etc. Looking at the little almost convective squiggle forming on the satellite in cold air it seems pretty likely in fact, if that hits the prom / West Gippsland they'd do well to "önly" get that.

No hassles Ruckle, it was just that your opening for this thread was contemplating starting another thread for tomorrow/Thurs? Agree to include it with this thread as the passing system combined with the "cold lick" is the catalyst as S.O. said.

10-15mm for me too.

Mmm shame the kids have hair appointments tomorrow, otherwise would have been very tempted to take them for a drive up to Buller tomorrow. We were water skiing Sunday morning between showers, now there is potential for snow tomorrow in the Alps and then back to 30's Sarurday. Not every week we have those odds.

Nice squally coldy type of shower to start this lot off here, barely covered the ground.

That little convective band is rocketing along, a few lightning strikes from time to time as well.

I reckon the best chance for some lightning is near the coast.

Widespread 15mm falls for most of Melbourne metro area. Tonight is a bonus as the cold front arching nicely on the Mt Gambier radar and looking to penetrate inland a touch further than forecast.

Falls of up to 40mm likely around the exposed coasts of West Gippsland, incl. Wilsons Prom.

Latest coastal waters forecast very ugly - Squalls up to 50 knots likely for both bays.
Also, the Severe Weather Warning for Damaging Winds has been upgraded from just West & South Gippsland to include all of southern VIC as well as Nth Central and the NE. BoM caught on the hop again?

.. and also some interstate posters to the Vic forums.

I reckon your right. Whole circulation coming into radar range now. I really should go to bed though....so much weather to watch though.

Bay effect at work?

around 12C outside atm brrr just had a brief heavy shower pass over but no hail in it..

Indeed Tommy! Currently 21.2c, having reached 22c in the past few days. http://www.baywx.com/

Should generate some very meaty showers overnight and in the morning.

The rain arrived here in the past hour. Just had a look at the radar and the Melbourne 512km shows quite a chunky band crossing the far western victorian coast associated with a 'quotation mark' of solid cloud (the lead edge of the colder lick?). I know it's got nothing to do with this thread but it looks like some wonderful storm activity should be going on through north central Qld tonight.

EDIT: I really have to read the whole end of the thread before typing. Seems I've just repeated stuff said by others.

1.6mm up till 11 last night from showers and 0.0mm since. The band and low have now made there way south of Melbourne and are nicely positioned to sling a pile of coldies over us and Gippsland in the next few hours.

Some nice falls in the SW about the coast.Didnt make it very far inland which is pretty typical of these systems.

Could be some very chunky showers today if you are lucky enough to be under a core. Will be good to be in the CBD as I have a better chance of seeing one than at home.

Clouds barrelling in from the wsw. Just had a brief thunderstorm. has bucketed down a few times.
The temp is 11c on my weather station, but feels heaps colder with the wind chill.
Was filming the fast cloud movement and got konked on the head by a small branch - nothing nasty. But the interesting thing, I suppose, was that this branch came from a few houses away.
See what else comes our way......silly me saw it (the branch) coming

I'm currently down in Flinders, and it began raining yesterday from about 4pm onwards. Ended up with 19.5mm in the gauge overnight. Great drop, as things are starting to dry out a little here. I haven't seen Bass Strait this churned up for a while, and we've had a few power dips from the strong winds too.

0.8mm overnight so waiting for the coldies with hail in them... Very windy outside at the moment the gusts are almost non stop!!

Temp now 16c with gusting winds. Very autumnal weather today and sweltering by Sunday. Go figure!!!

heavy rain and hail right now here at kew amazing stuff dvc

9 degrees here, brrr. Had 1 rumble of thunder, looks to me like it's starting to ease into isolated showers.

... and thunder.

No showers here yet just a few drops to dot the ground and now sunny cold and very windy really want to see the ground turn white with small hail...

Thunderstorm here atm.
Weather coming in waves.
The wind gusts then stops. Haven't had hail yet and the temp is slowly dropping - just under 10c atm.
Heater's on and wearing the winter woollies
P.s. no sooner I type the conditions in here, the sun looks like it's going to come out again - tshirts and shorts? Not quite

Heard a report on abc news 24 of a "mini-tornado" near Bayswater. Reporter said it had been tweeted?

a friend just called me to report this morning he and some friends saw a small funnel cloud in bayswater near their work. but thats all the information i have

*edit* looking through the radar this morning i saw nothing that would indicate tornadic activity in the region.. hmmm a cold core tornado maybe? or just the yee old "heavy storm = mini tornado"

MORE hail flinging it down onto the windows!

lightning an d massive thunder overhead heavy rain - check out the clittle cell!

The suburb next to me is Bayswater.
I have video'd some rotation in the clouds above us here. Some mini-mini funnelly type parts, but then again I may have missed what others have reported. One section tried very hard to 'funnel' though. Still checking my videos. If I've got anything I'll let you know.
Now got thunder again

funnel=/=mini tornado, and neither is some damaging winds/small intense storm, must news reporters always try to make it more dramatic?

Nice lightning and thunder in the CBD about 15 minutes ago. Gotta love Melbourne in Summer!

i was about to post the same thing turtlegirl! coldies are my thing and a january show is one reason to love Melbourne ;-)

Especially good mid summer thats for sure!

No thunder at Flinders, but typically at home....when I'm not there. Sunny here and hasn't rained since I last posted this morning.

Loo (Lindsay Knowles) reports snow on Hotham, confirmed by a photo on Facebook. Check out the cams!!!

http://ski.com.au/snowcams/australia/vic/hotham/hotham-heavenly1.html

and another round of hail ...

sorry just have to say that some of the most beautiful weather sights are when you look up between coldies at bright clear blue sky with towering white heads above ... am I weird or what ...

Well..lets be weird together DVC
I've been looking at those too...they are just magnificent

Would not surprise me at all to find the culprit being a cold-air tornado. They do happen, and especially in setups like this.

TS

Still they could just say that rather then 'mini', just because cold-air ones aren't as violent doesn't mean they should be classified as mini.

A few good lightning flashes 2-3pm. Squally with showers. A solid 5-7mm in earlier rain. Feels more September than January.

so i do have an update. i had the day off today and chased the last decent cell from mentone to oakleigh. it was pretty fun and it was actually rotating nicely in some parts. saw some interesting lowering on this cell. some very strange shapes in the back end of the storm.

myself and my wife started on beach road and followed it down lower dandegnong road right through to oakleigh. and even the wife was pointing out funny looking scuds as we went a long. at one stage right near the mc donalds near the bus depot on the big intersection south clayton/east bentleigh it looked for a while to get highly organized but then just fell apart.

these storms were moving pretty fast. on beach road we were in front of it as it came across the bay. but as we went through mentone shops it got in front of us a little. finally caught up to it closer to bentleigh

all in all a fun few hours =]

9.2 mm for this event and four short hail showers gotta be happy with that, dvc

I can back up any calls that this system did Provide some strong bursts .

Was caught out on Beach Rd (heading towards Frankston )this morning 'bout 8.30 am , when all of a Sudden I was the only person still on the road ( all others pulled to the side ) Due to torrential/ sideways rain & Tree Branchs dropping all around me . Was a little slow going , but lovely to have the road to myself ....

0.7mm today so with the surprising 1.6mm yesterday evening I make 2.3mm, max just over 19 as well. As with the majority of coldie events it was much ado about nothing on this side of town.

Did hear the thunder in the CBD late morning that Turtle Girl mentioned on the previous page which was nice.

Just had an intense rainfall (with mixed small hail) for <10mins. Very squally wind in tree tops (eg: 30m) but rain falling vertically. Some thunder.

No thunder or hail here, gusty SW'ly was a nuisance but overly remarkable - we did manage 4.5mm rain pretty much to model consensus. Seems the brunt of this secondary event for this thread has focused on Melb/Far W Gippsland? We touched 20C this morning before things went colder.

The ABC radio certainly acknowledged that the vent was significant for Melb commuters this arvo (lucky it was a holiday week!).

I thought that thunder was something moving in my building... Had a nice view of this mornings work charging up the bay and out towards the Macedon Ranges. It reminded me a lot of the fronts crossing the SW coast of WA in winter but less wet. Lucked out at lunch time and got drenched. Once you got out of the wind the sun was quite nice this afternoon. Felt quite mild on the way home.

A couple of squally spits this evening, might get another point something. Could yet get to 3mm I predicted for home yesterday.

What an insane day. I have been fishing up on the Snowy River up the back of Buchan chasing mega Bass and spent last night at Briag. I had to drop Robbie back to Wang and we were going to go through Licola and Jamison but at the last minute decided to go through Dargo and come out at Hotham. Great last minute decision as we got snowed on at a nice open spot at 1622 mtrs. It was an amazing sight seeing big snow flakes falling at this time of the year. Up until this point there had been no rain. We continued along the road and when we got to the Great Alpine Road we had to head up to Hotham. I could not believe my eyes. It was snowing just under 1400 mtrs and when we got to just over 1800mtrs it was like a blizzard. How exciting it was to see so much snow sitting on the ground and we had a ball up there. I have posted a pic and video on Facebook and will put up some more video footage tomorrow.
Summer in crazy Victoria

Whats even more crazy is the fact that by Sunday a lot of temperatures will be nudging 30.

Nothing flash but it does show the snow falling and also shows the snow on the ground. I was in shorts a tshirt and wearing thongs so I wasnt all that keen on getting out of the car although I did to take a couple of pics.

Yep great choice Loo (I'm glad I wasnt up there on my motorbike).

Picked up one of the kids from the Prom today, several brief showers about down that way bouncing between 15.5 - 19C between the showers and the odd sunny patch, SW wind very much abated but ocean still upset.

Lots of peeved campers and empty camping spots (next week would be a great time to make a "last minute decision trip" to go camping down there!). By Sunday it will be the best spot in Australia again.

21.4C here today, cloudy with moderate SW'ly, baro peaked at 1019 hPa but starting to fall again (dunno why it would)? 0.25mm trace in the gauge brings us to circa 8mm for the system although the stong winds would have left us way in rain deficit (not so for Sale - the've done well).