Gday fellas! How are you all?

I admit that I feel a bit awkward about starting a new topic for NSW/ACT, since I'm still here in Victoria (until next Monday that is), but then again the weather on your side of the Border is just as important to me as it is here for the time being. Besides, I've noticed a fair bit of discussion for the next event already, so I thought a new topic would probably help. Hope you guys don't mind!

The unfolding pattern suggests that a cold front and low pressure trough will move across NSW/ACT over the next few days.

A hot, potentially humid northerly airflow looks set to sweep the State tomorrow and into Sunday ahead of a cooler southwest change gradually spreading from the west. Cloud increasing from the west, showers/rain developing along and near the VIC/NSW border late tomorrow, spreading further north/northeast on Sunday with the risk of thunderstorms (hopefully severe).

Storms contracting to the northeast ranges by Monday as the trough contracts northeast and the front passes through, otherwise fine apart from showers along the coast and adjacent ranges. Probably be an ongoing showery period along and near the NSW coast for much of the coming week.

Hope you guys have a great weekend. And hopefully some decent severe weather action!

Cheers.

Aussie Tornado (Andrew)

Wow, I had no idea about this! AWESOME. I'm eyeing the sat pic they stick on this page and yeah, OK, something's coming. Stuff all the way from the top end down to Antarctica. So the annoyingly hot weather this weekend might be worth it, if it causes somehting really noisy and wet on Sunday. Fingers crossed.

I have been eyeing this change for quite some time now due to its exceptional coldness.
This will be one cold week coming up for NSW, models have further downgraded the heat even for Sunday but there should be some handy rain/storms for much of the day. Models are keen for rain totals from first thing Sunday morning and looking at that classic big cloud band/cold front it will be a showery day.
Then a second cold front will pass on Wednesday afternoon, this will be cold enough to produce snow about the Snowies late in the afternoon and then will be followed by more very cold SE winds on the NSW coast and ranges. This may be followed by some milder troughy rain next weekend, but that is for another thread.

Another cold January morning this morning too, low of 6.9 and still cool and breezy now still only 11, looking forward to the tiny bit of warmth this afternoon and early tomorrow before it gets cold again.

Exceptional coldness?? i just dont see it. Looks like a pretty standard change to me with temps still hanging in the mid 20's this far north. GFS is the only model that is pushing a tiny pool of colder air to the ACT region, all other models have it staying well south of NSW.

I dont think the NSW snowies will get anything at all, maybe higher area's of TAS might get a dusting if they're lucky.

Richard it may be a little warmer near Newcastle but lets have a look at the numbers, Sunday the heat in NW NSW has been greatly downgraded from almost 30 at 850 to only a bit over 25, in the SE around Sydney, CT's not much change out of 20 and that is with some cloud and that is the warmest of the days. From Monday the 850's should be close to 15, I will grant you Tuesday might be quite warm in Newcastle ahead of the next change, but still only barely average temps further south. But Wednesday/Thursday 850's will drop to around 5deg at Sydney and more cold southerly winds, if that is not cold for summer than perhaps you are from Macquarie island.

The window of opportunity for snow in the Snowies is quite small late Wednesday but it is there. I have now doubt that all of us will be freezing our buts off on Thursday morning.

The forcasts dont really agree with you PD. I would rate the chance of snow at pretty much 0% with temps still reaching double didgits on the ski slopes all week, nudging 0 as a min. The coolest day in my forcast is 25c with no low minimums which is pretty normal after a cool change comes through.

As i said, its only GFS that shows any hint of cool air penetrating NSW and even then, only in the far south. The CT's will see a couple of cool mornings, but is that really abnormal?? I dont think so. Places like lithgow would see single didgit mins pretty much every January.

As for tomorrow, if this cloud can hold off we should hit mid/high 30's in the hunter. 850t's are still looking pretty good, 20-22c range.

Richard, very different to Jan 11 when I had only 1 single digit min in the whole month and that was 9.2, while in Jan 12 I have had 2 already both lower, 7.4 1st and 6.9 this morning and that was in a warm spell. Will be touch and go frost up here Thursday morning. It will be mainly dry though next week apart from storms nearer the coast, and that slight shower in the Snowies late Wednesday. I would not trust the forecasts these days they have been consistently too high all the time.

Agreed you may see high 30's in the Hunter tomorrow with the precipitation lurking just to the south. Sunday will be the most interesting day for weather/storms south of Newcastle. Wednesday will be just interesting to see how much it cools down in the evening.

Clouds are piling up over the central tablelands to the east. Every time I go outside the mroe it looks like storms by this evening.

Sat pic is look amazing!! really dont know how nothing can eventuate from this.. Aviation forecast tending to disagree..

Im not saying that it wont be cool down that way, just that it's not really anything out of the ordinary.

look at jan 10 ( lithgow)
8.3
3.9
8.2
9.4
all in a row

2009 was equally as cool, min of 4.8 and 10 mins under 10c
2008 was warmer but still managed 5.7 and 5 mins under 10c

Will be interesting though if the 5c 850t's do make it this far up the coast on thursday morning. With a strong southerly it will probably just be a scud fest on the coast and the SST's will keep us warmer then the same 850's in winter. The wind on the mountains should be calm enough for a good inversion

Tomorrow looks interesting though, some epic wind shear for the Sydney region.

Sat pic looks likes a festival of the clouds - every mid layer cloud sub species potentially could be hunted down. Just add the latin word of choice !

As for storms..... bring on another miserable cloud fest to spoil any chances of a local storm with decent shear in place.

yeah, doesn't look like the cloud will hold off long enough for us to get any use of the shear
how annoying, will just end up as a crappy rainband with 2 rumbles of thunder.

Yeah I agree with you Ozthunder and Richard, would be a total waste of such good shear if all we get is just a rainband with local imbedded thunder.

But I would still be paying close attention to this system, you never know... the rainband may fail to eventuate or may be unexpectedly followed by clear air, and that could help set off convection. Severe thunderstorms could develop on short notice with this system if conditions become highly unstable. All we can do is wait I suppose.

I've encouraged it by applying a coat of expensive (and slow drying) paint to some of my weatherboards and spaying a bit of grazon around. and sure enough, the Canberra radar shows a big green bulge coming in at us.

The forecast doesn't say anything much about cold though, an arctic 29c tomorrow (although if this rain starts arriving we probably won't get that) and then mid/high 20s until Thursday.

That spiral of cold stuff in the bight does suggest otherwise though. The lightning's back in SA so is doesn't look like any fun stuff for us.

... that green blob was a fake! Nothing happened and you could see the moon through the cloud throughout (and still can). And it's quite warm.

I think cloud or no cloud tomorrow... Nothing amazing will eventuate in and around Sydney imo. The upper support is just not there.. nearly -5c @ 500. Hope im wrong!

It's sunny in Sydney now but mid-level cloud looks set to roll in from the West. I think we'll get a cloudy, warmish day today with not much happening, which is what we've been getting recently on the last day before a trough passes over us. I don't believe today's forecast max of 30 for Sydney. There is a weak N-NW pattern, so I think the seabreeze will cut it off at about 25-26.
The BOM's outlook for the coast for the next week looks fairly benign. I hope they're right and we don't get a week of typical Southerly rubbish. They must be expecting the cold air aloft to suppress the usual low cloud we get in Southerlies.

Its official. WE have thunder here. Nothing but grey murk now, set in, but its nice reading the Sunday paper and hearing the rain falling with a few rumbles.

Overcast and very dull here this morning in Kalkite.
Very windy as well. Temp 17 degs, making it feel cool in the wind.
There's a curtain of showerey stuff falling over the peaks as I look south west, and has been for an hour or so. Looks more like a drizzle. Still dry here, but I expect that wet stuff to push through later.
Storms? Who knows?

Homer

Sydney looks safe from any stormage given the nice cloud cover now.. but i wouldnt discount activity later. sat pic looks great