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#1052465 - 06/01/2012 15:43 SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
May as well have a thread started...High moisture, not too bad shear, good instability, mod heating,strong jet but NW entrance rather then SE Exit-which is not quite as good but OK, surface trough, Good time of day for frontal passage ie midday to arvo Sat, upper trough sat night-Sunday AM, good cold air behind front. Though low is slipping away SE'wards.
All in all, imo moderate interesting summer event 5 to 15mm generally, but high moisture could make high rainfall storms of 20 to 40mm in spots.

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#1052499 - 06/01/2012 16:47 Re: SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Even very isol 50 to 60mm is not out of the question with very high tropical moisture infeed from North WA area, it appears!
Mainly NW Pastoral North & Central EP-Flinders-Mid North the most likely for heaviest storm falls.


Edited by bd bucketingdown (06/01/2012 16:50)

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#1052506 - 06/01/2012 16:58 Re: SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012 [Re: bd bucketingdown]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2071
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Theres a good chance of lightning down here in the SE after 11 am tomorrow hence the fire ban being issued

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#1052534 - 06/01/2012 17:39 Re: SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012 [Re: rstewart84]
epthunda Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 379
Loc: Lock South Australia
yeww wasnt expecting to see this in the forecast for me tomorrow (Cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with possible gusty winds, heavy rainfall and hail. Winds north to northwesterly averaging 15 to 25 km/h, reaching 35 km/h at times, tending southwesterly up to 30 km/h during the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to the low 20s with daytime temperatures reaching 28 to 35).

hopefully i will get some sort of storm tomorrow, whats peoples views on tomorrows event?

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#1052537 - 06/01/2012 17:42 Re: SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012 [Re: epthunda]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17491
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Yes, that quote
Quote:
Scattered thunderstorms with possible gusty winds, heavy rainfall and hail
is on all district forecasts except for KI, Adelaide, Mt Lofties, and the east.... interesting, obviously BOM are expecting some big storms.

Unfortunately I am in the hills in the morning, and on the south coast in the arvo, so am only free after about 6pm....

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#1052538 - 06/01/2012 17:45 Re: SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012 [Re: teckert]
Max Record Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/04/2009
Posts: 1658
Loc: Adelaide
I reckon I'll have to base myself around Pirie. Seems as if the same areas will get the best of it (whatever it may be) again!
_________________________
2017: 124.2mm
2016: 680.0mm
2015: 392.8mm
2014: 450.4mm
2013: 470.6mm
2012: 426.8mm
2011: 518.2mm
2010: 549.4mm
2009: 459.2mm
Yearly Average: 460mm

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#1052541 - 06/01/2012 17:52 Re: SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012 [Re: Max Record]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17491
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Probably a good starting base... you could even start out a little earlier to the SW? Maybe Wallaroo/Pt Broughton/Snowtown area, but just call it as it happens...

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#1052545 - 06/01/2012 18:06 Re: SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012 [Re: teckert]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2071
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Looks like the LSE will be in the firing line tomorrow from these storms

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#1052609 - 06/01/2012 21:42 Re: SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012 [Re: rstewart84]
Olaf Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2010
Posts: 1851
Loc: Noarlunga, SA
This was very accurate with the most recent significant rainfall event back a couple of weeks ago, be lovely to see it again...

Next 48 hours Accumulated Precipitation, most of the rain will fall late tomorrow/overnight for Adelaide
_________________________
�I�d keep playing. I don�t think the heavy stuff�s gonna come down for quite awhile.� Bill Murray

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#1052613 - 06/01/2012 21:53 Re: SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012 [Re: Olaf]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14848
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Looks good for storms, especially out west and across the interior, there will be some thumping severe thunderstorms out there. Will write-up more on system later.

TS cool

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#1052618 - 06/01/2012 22:15 Re: SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012 [Re: Thunderstruck]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2071
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Looks good for the SE tomorrow as well in terms of thunderstorm activity wouldnt be surprised if a STW is issued for this area at some stage during the day

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#1052619 - 06/01/2012 22:17 Re: SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012 [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2105
Loc: Clare, SA
Its been interesting with these new BoM forecasts how much they have been changing their forecasts in short amounts of time. Dec 17 event. The day before they had forecasted showers, poss storm. That night scattered shows/storms, poss hail winds etc. Same has happened this time. Might just be coincidence in varying models.

I gotta work at five tomoro but I may be able to get it off, see what happens.
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#1052633 - 06/01/2012 23:16 Re: SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012 [Re: Markus]
aztech. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/11/2008
Posts: 1254
Loc: Port Lincoln, Eyre Peninsula
hmm, im probably limited as in driving length to about Cowell, but between here and there looks pretty good, only thing is my car isnt insured atm, so risky
getting amped

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#1052650 - 07/01/2012 00:14 Re: SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012 [Re: Thunderstruck]
_Sarah_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/10/2005
Posts: 3638
Loc: Salisbury North SA
I'm heading to Brighton beach tomorrow, will there be a chance for storms down that way? Was hoping for a fine day with my friend poke

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#1052664 - 07/01/2012 01:52 Re: SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012 [Re: _Sarah_]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14848
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
The first half of the day might be ok Sarah but you might get a bit wet and wild after that lol.

Nice trough over the west of the state atm tapping into a lot of tropical moisture over a broad area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are continuing to develop over the western districts of the state and with good upper divergence and wind shear together with the deepening low to the south, storms will increase with a good chance of some severe thunderstorms over western ag areas and NW Pastoral areas into tomorrow.

Instability weakens as the system heads east but I do think there will be a general band of rain and showers with some thunderstorms in and around it moving across the Central areas later in the afternoon. Given the decent PWATS, falls could well be quite heavy in some areas if they cop some decent storms and heavier rain areas - in the order to 50-70mm is not out of the question as Ian mentioned. Most won't get that however, 10-20mm seems about right for southern ag areas. Hoping Adelaide can get something nice in the afternoon, the dynamics are there albeit a tad messy. Shear is good but pretty linear so no nasty rotating beasts this time round but general jetstream thunderstorms, tending medium to low based are the go with some heating....timing of the trough is good for the central and eastern areas....so watch EP for development in the afternoon, racing SE on the good speed shear aloft. Hail is a small threat, but a chance further west and N with greater instability. Damaging winds would be the main severe threat for mine.

So nothing MAJOR but def watch out, should be some fairly decent thunderstorms around, chiefly N and W across the interior where some big nasty thunderstorms should occur but don't rule out central and eastern areas getting potentially severe thunderstorms.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (07/01/2012 01:56)

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#1052677 - 07/01/2012 07:54 Re: SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012 [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17491
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Looks a little too moist for Adelaide for me. My bet is storms predominately to the west and north all day with remnants making it here with the occasional embedded storm, more likely after 3pm. At least we will get a decent rain.

If I was able to chase, yer I'd probably head as I suggested initially to Pt Wakefield and see what happens from there. The closer it gets to Adelaide I think your chances of good structure and lightning get less.
In fact I'm not even sure I would chase if I was free today... but yer keep an eye on the radar later... as lennie said, I wouldn't rule out a decent storm getting through somewhere...

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#1052680 - 07/01/2012 08:28 Re: SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012 [Re: teckert]
Farm Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2009
Posts: 845
Loc: West Mallee SA
as long as it rains rains over wilmington mt brown long valley horrocks pass etc will be a god send
_________________________
Average Rainfall 340mm

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#1052681 - 07/01/2012 08:32 Re: SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012 [Re: teckert]
Werner K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 468
Loc: Flinders Park, SA
John Carr, Phil Leonard & I are heading north this morning, initially to somewhere between Wallaroo & Pirie. Anyone wishing to join us is most welcome as are any directions as to where we should head as the day unfolds. We will have WZ access and I'm also contactable via my mobile for those who have my #. Wish us luck!

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#1052689 - 07/01/2012 08:59 Re: SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012 [Re: Werner K]
epthunda Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 379
Loc: Lock South Australia
Thunderstruck am i any chance of a storm here at lock? or do i have to go chasing?

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#1052691 - 07/01/2012 09:16 Re: SA - Storm & Shower event Sat 7th to Mon 9th January 2012 [Re: epthunda]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17491
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Apart from the Whyalla guys you probably have the best chance of anyone on here...
Just keep an eye on the radar and skies. You may not need to go anywhere, or if you do it will be just up the road... ie. Cleve/Kimba.

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