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Looks interesting even if it doesn't form at least you lot have the possibilty of something forming. Meanwhile on the Atacama Coast we have zero chance for the next few days.

sswanss....they did jump the gun a bit. But the relevant authorities always now well before anyone else that alerts are going to apply with the next update.

My work is always told a couple of hours before alerts change of what they are going to be.

Looking very nice on radar. I think your very quick to pass judgement young Trav (particularly when the JTWC also has a formation alert for it). You might be proved right but given the uncertainties in forecasting and the current appearance of the system on radar and satellite I think issuing a TC warning is not an unreasonable course of action.

They have not named the system so no one has called it a TC yet.

It sure is in a great spot for development and has a window of 18 hours open to it. If it becomes a TC it needs to do so by early tomorrow. Conditions quickly become unfavourable after tomorrow morning with entrainment of dry air and increasing VWS. Whether it becomes a cyclone or not, by tomorrow evening it would have started to weaken.

Well its brought me out again.

A couple of sites in Dampier have gone to tie down status.

A couple of ships were also witnessed sailing out of the channel/

Hedland began sending ships out this afternoon

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/flash-rb.html
it sure does look pretty though

According to track map it should be a cat 1 sometime tomorrow. Meh Cat 1, yawn.

As Mike Brunker Mayor of the Witsundays said 2 years ago "I wouldn't get out of bed for a cat 1" and neither would I just quietly.

Hmmmm Cat one isn't worth much of a mention. However for us generally the Lows or Cat 1's/2's bring the most rainfall.

This one looks good for maybe 100mm or so for the coastal regions. Only had a few mm today and then nothing

Fingers crossed the clouds let rip tomorrow!

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 9:01 pm WST on Tuesday 10 January 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Wallal to Dampier,
including the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha.

At 8:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
415 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
515 kilometres north northeast of Karratha and
moving south at 20 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

A Tropical Low is moving southwards towards the Pilbara coast. The low has
strengthened over the past 6 hours, and is now producing gales over offshore
waters to the south of the centre. The low may develop into a Tropical Cyclone
on Wednesday and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per
hour in coastal areas from Port Hedland to Wallal early on Wednesday morning,
extending west to Dampier later on Wednesday.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of
the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central
and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood
Advices for further details.

Tides will be higher than expected.


BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and
Whim Creek, including Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland and Whim Creek need
to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first
aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.6 degrees South 119.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 20 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Wednesday 11 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

That time of the year again. I’m on FPSO vessel 30km to the north Exmouth. The powers to be have told us we’re going to start the process of shutting down at 1am with a final decision of disconnecting at 6.30am.

I’m just shaking my head in total disbelief ... ...

By the way, sea is almost like glass outside at the minute

Everyone is on panic stations here at work too. Is funny to watch actually

I’m enjoying the humour as well. Would be more funnier if it didn’t mean all this extra work. I’m happy to do the work for a good reason, but please...

Yeah seems like a bit of an overkill especially for the Pilbara which eats up CAT 1's and Tropical LOWS. Might be just some training or just precautions in the event of a law suit being filed against them if something went wrong and they were never seen to be doing anything about it in the first place. Covering their ar$e. Especially with Cyclone George and those deaths inland at that Camp. I am sure everyones OH&S and safety manuels have been edited and updated since that event.

Certainly not just for training, it means loss of production and a loss of money!! Can’t be shutting down just for training, would cost too much. Definitely got to do with the legalities and “to be seen” to be doing something. When the data from the BoM is entered into our excel spreadsheet, when it says prepare to shutdown and sail, that’s what we do.

According to 28 Storms you might be up for double that rainfall prediction KP, and some. That would shut a few roads for a while if it comes off wouldn't it?

http://28storms.com/cyclone/

Cat 1 is still 48-67 knots on the water. I can understand the marine industry putting a plan into action for that.

Welcome Cyclone Heidi

Pressure 995 hectoPascals



Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 11:51 pm WST on Tuesday 10 January 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Wallal to Dampier,
including the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha.

At 11:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category 1 was estimated to be
350 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
460 kilometres north northeast of Karratha and
moving south at 20 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving in a southerly direction towards the Pilbara
coast, and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour
in coastal areas from Port Hedland to Wallal early on Wednesday morning,
extending west to Dampier later on Wednesday. Heidi is currently a Category 1
system, and is unlikely to intensify further before reaching the coast.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of
the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central
and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood
Advices for further details.

Tides will be higher than expected.


BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and
Whim Creek, including Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland and Whim Creek need
to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first
aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Heidi at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.2 degrees South 119.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 20 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday 11 January.

Yah, it’s a bubbling baby girl, weighing in at 995hPa

Looking at the latest IR loop I reckon she's moving more south west than south at the moment. Would expect the next track map to have her forecast landfall almost right on Dampier within 24 hours. SSTs great, though wind shear increasing and interaction with land might confine her to cat 1.