A warning has now been issued for parts of the pilbra coast, including port headland, with the possibility that the low pressure system of the coast of western australia may now become a marginal Category 1 system.

Joint typhoon warning centres summary
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 119.3E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 119.2E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM NORTH OF PORT
HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 090937Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A
BROAD TURNING STRUCTURE IN THE LOWER-LEVELS WITH A 091316Z ASCAT PASS
INDICATING WINDS ARE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A SYMMETRIC LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS JUST EQUATORWARD OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ESTIMATED AT
30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//


Bureau of Meteorology's take on the situation
Remarks:

A Tropical Low is moving southwards towards the Pilbara coast. The low may develop into a Tropical Cyclone on Wednesday and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour in coastal areas from Port Hedland to Wallal early on Wednesday morning, extending west to Dampier later on Wednesday.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides will be higher than expected.



FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present.
Communities between Wallal and Dampier should listen for the next advice.

Let the discussion begin

This is one weird set up by the bureau, im scartching my head to be honest. Dont worry about the scientific aspect of classing a tropical cyclone, lets just class a low a cyclone if it has gales on a quarter of the circulation.....

Technical Bulletin
The system is currently in an area of low to moderate shear and warm SSTs
suggesting that further development is likely in the next 24 hours. Despite
this, all model guidance forecast a system with gales confined southeast of the
centre in the squeeze between the low and a ridge to the south and hence not
strictly a tropical cyclone. While this remains the most probable scenario, the
likely impact to the Pilbara coast of gales and heavy rain will be consistent
with that of a category 1 tropical cyclone.

The low is expected to move southwards over the next 12 to 24 hours before
taking a more southwestwards turn as it get closer to the coast. During this
period shear increases and the low level circulation is likely to weaken and
move more westwards while the mid level circulation tracks to the southeast.



If anyone bothered to read that, what do you think? Why the hell would they name a Tropical Cyclone a Tropical Cyclone if it doesnt meet the guidelines that the bureau are supposed to follow?

So now if a east coast low in January creates 100kmhr winds, are they going to call it a cyclone?

Sorry but im really scratching my head. NO wonder we get marginal systems named 1-2 times a year !

Yes pure madness! Our naming standards are LOW enough as it is at 50% circulation requirements. Now a gradient sqqueeze in ONE quadrant will do! Please! WA BoM have always been extremely conservative - now this.... Expect it from QLD BoM but not WA.

WTXS21 PGTW 100830
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6S 118.9E TO 23.4S 116.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 100630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.4S 118.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7S
118.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 118.8E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH
OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS FRAGMENTED AND
ORGANIZATION LACKING, THERE IS A TREND TOWARDS BETTER ORGANIZATION,
WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS NUMEROUS 25 KNOT
WIND FLAGS NEAR THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND A BROAD FIELD OF GALE
FORCE WINDS BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE PILBARA COAST. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
SYSTEM CORE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOME INHIBITION TO
OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT, BUT ALSO SHOWS A VIGOROUS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW TO
THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 10 KNOTS
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A HIGHLY FAVORABLE 31 DEGREES.
SURFACE PRESSURE REPORTS AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON AN INTENSITY EQUATING TO 25 KNOTS. THE 100000Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE LLCC IS JUST POLEWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND MOVING TOWARDS AN AREA OF HIGHER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS THE PILBARA COAST. THERE IS A REASONABLE
CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FAIL TO REACH CYCLONE INTENSITY PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, BUT THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE 35 KNOT THRESHOLD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110830Z.
NNNN

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 3:19 pm WST on Tuesday 10 January 2012

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Wallal to Dampier.

At 2:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
550 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
moving south at 17 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday.

A Tropical Low is moving southwards towards the Pilbara coast. The low may
develop into a Tropical Cyclone on Wednesday and is expected to produce gales
with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour in coastal areas from Port Hedland to
Wallal early on Wednesday morning, extending west to Dampier later on
Wednesday.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of
the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central
and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood
Advices for further details.

Tides will be higher than expected.


FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Wallal and Dampier should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.4 degrees South 119.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 17 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Tuesday 10 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

I guess time will tell if they name it. But for now giving people the heads up to expect the equivalant winds and potential damage of a CAT 1 is good for people to take it seriously enough to at least stock up on plenty of beer. lol

Alot of the technical readings are mentioning marginal and bordering on cyclone etc. I guess with a system that still has 36hrs out in the soupy warm waters of WA anything's a possibility. It does seem to have to track along a fine line in amongst higher shear values to prove itself. I guess it's still not out of the question with Heidi ticking the boxes with gales out her back end to warrant naming. All good to finally get any type of system to kick this season off over here in WA.

Last year we had a tropical LOW kick the season off here in WA and that lead to the biggest floods in a 100years for Carnarvon. So I guess marginal Heidi or Tropical Low this baby could potentially have some memorable weather to talk about. Bring it on. She has already broken the 280 day dry spell here in Broome so I am happy with her performance to date.

Replying to this comment:
So now if a east coast low in January creates 100kmhr winds, are they going to call it a cyclone?


BOM uses different criteria in Qld when compared to WA and NT.
Qld cyclones are declared at a higher wind speed.

I can't find the source for this information, I read it somewhere many years ago. If someone knows where this information is please post a link to it.

Can some one Explain why in Sth Hedland they have Blue Flags & Blue Alert signs every where,when the last Update Fesa stated there was no Alerts @ this present time.

Quote @ time 15:19 Report

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Wallal and Dampier should listen for the next advice.

I havn't heard of that before Steven. I think it should of read. Qld cyclones are declared with any wind speed. lol.

This LOW's cloud signature is getting bigger by the hour with nice convection off to its east to its north and more thunderstorm clusters streaming in from Central Australia. It's appearance tonight will be beautiful if you think a big blob of white 1000kms across is your liking.

I suppose this will possibly give it a chance to organise somewhat overnight before hitting daylight tommorrow.

It does look nice. Nice to finally see some cloud and rain for the NWest.

Hi sswanss,long time no see.There are no blue alerts yet so i would say Southhedland have jumped the gun.

If Hedland sits in that SE quadrant where they are expecting 100kmhr gusts for several hours I guess there has to be some kind of warnings put out to the public in Hedland especially FIFO who may not have a clue.

Its a strange one. If they dont name it does a severe weather warning suffice for the general public for an extended period of strong winds? Or do they just put the flags out as a community alert??

They have just issued advice 2 with the blue alert:

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

FLASH TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 5:44 pm WST on Tuesday 10 January 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Wallal to Dampier,
including the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha.

At 5:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
485 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
moving south at 18 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

A Tropical Low is moving southwards towards the Pilbara coast. The low may
develop into a Tropical Cyclone on Wednesday and is expected to produce gales
with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour in coastal areas from Port Hedland to
Wallal early on Wednesday morning, extending west to Dampier later on
Wednesday.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of
the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central
and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood
Advices for further details.

Tides will be higher than expected.


BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and
Whim Creek, including Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland and Whim Creek need
to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first
aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.0 degrees South 119.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 18 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Tuesday 10 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

Nope they are on the ball

Ive lived in Hedland from the early seventy's till now & have experienced many a Cyclone & never seen Blue Flags & ALERTS up Before The Naming of any Cyclone.

Got me stumped,guess your right cyclonecece they have jumped the gun & yes long time no see ( cyclonecece ), good to see you posting again.

OOps well that explains that then thanks Winnyhair

Thtas very true sswanss,mabe they are playing it safe.A cyclone in WA always gets me posting again Hope theres plenty of rain in it for you all.Just remember these cyclones are so unpredictable a lot can change in a few hours no matter how good the models or forcasts are

New track map - I can't work out how to embed the image in my post...

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml