After several days of a strato cu and drizzle fest, summer looks to return from tomorrow. A trough edges into the state Tuesday and at least on EC should trigger storms from just west of Melbourne across Western parts of the state. These may meander east into Wednesday and perhaps re fire out in Gippy on Wednesday. Outside chance Monday on eastern highlands as well.

Some uncertainty beyond that as to whether the next trough will approach and then linger but if it looks good by Wednesday we can start another thread for that as it will be with the "next" high - if that makes sense.

Anyway back on topic, we have a little bit of weather to watch and a place to post for it in the next few days.

EC still reasonably keen on Tuesday PM/Even at least for the SW of the state. Wednesday looking little patchy out east. Maybe restricted to higher points.

BOM's latest 4 day chart shows the trough vacillating about central Vic for next Wed and Thurs. Would be nice if that came off.

24C here today, cool under the clouds (moreso up at Mt Dandenong where I've been for 2 days).

A bit of a cell Just over the border at Corrowa. It looks like it is moving in a SSW dirrection which is unusual but it is getting late and my eyes may be playing tricks on me.

Looks like I'll be waiting until Thursday and Friday for my chance of storm action, since I'll be returning home from holidays in Corryong and Merimbula around then. Hope something good pulls off on those two days

BOM forecast completely changes for Friday, then again I doubt it will stay that way. I must admit though with my first tennis tournament of the year starting on Friday night I hope the storms stay away from my area!

Well bit of a shock after the recent cool weather today. Although just around the 33 34 mark. Still a bit of a chance of a rumble in the west of the state tomorrow pm and in particular the SW. Nothing to serious but its there in several models, most notably EC and UKmet. Wednesday am and middle part of the day a chance around central parts and then the east later. GFS has trough lingering, particularly about the east and wrecking the date range of this thread. EC cooperates and has no weather really Thursday or Friday before developing a ripper ECL. Thursday I guess we decide what to do thread wise?? Anyhoo, stay cool.

Hi Runkle,

EC's ECL is a little beauty, isn't it? Esp when it forms an exclamation point on the far south coast of NSW. Could be interesting for East Gipps if it were to come to fruition. None of the other models support it yet, though GFS gives some support.
Bob

Ruckle ... sorry for misspelling your name. Apologies. Bob

Hee hee thats ok Thunderbib. 31.3/10 here at home.

hah Ruckle, anyway ACCESS pretty keen on some decent rainfall in the east on Saturday. Also since I can't see the ECL (only having available ACCESS and GFS) when is it developing?

Anything much coming from the west later this week? I get just a little awed when I see those beautiful white tops blowing up like marshmallows on the satellite loop.

33C here today but felt heaps hotter during the sunny breaks, esp. later in the arvo when the seabreaze shut down early. Got a mid level cloud hovering over the town and its been spitting for the last 30 mins (not enough to wet the warm concrete).

Looks like CMC's early call on an ECL forming and crabbing down the NSW coast is still on the cards (but 36 hours later than its initial Wednesday prediction. Good be quite wet in Gippsland come the weekend?

will there be any relief i wonder for Victoria SE suburbs from this heat, last night i slept really bad. i don't tend to handle the heat very well =[

hoping we will get some storms and a cool change. but maybe i am just hoping too much

*edit* spelling. goddam no sleep

I think we will see a change of sorts.
The cloud is starting to drift over from the SW and there should be the beginning of something nice for us
Tomorrow looks like it could be good for some rain (storms?) too.
Friday night looks especially interesting - into Saturday.
I'm not a fan of hot sleepless nights either. Also the heat seems to activate all the night wildlife around here
The owls have been hooting; the bats fighting in the trees; the possums stirring up the dogs and we get the odd fox snooping around.

Wouldnt be surprised to see a storm fire up in the west of central distric by 4.00am (early hours) tomorrow, then by lunch time parts of wimmera, mallee, northerm country, central district, north central district may start to fire up, then by early evening maybe some storms along the northeast ranges.
As far as rest of week, not sure if this belongs here or for another thread IMO should see storms developing, thursday northeast. Friday afternoon is looking the most intersting for much of the state for storm potential, although western districts and the wimmera may miss out.
Fergus was croaking last night, so defianetly must be the right conditions for something to develope.
Today is lovely and warm, sorry for those of you that don't like the heat, but I am loving it, kids are in the pool happy and occupied, only a week or so of summer holidays to enjoy so I say bring it on. I May even get the tinny out one evening and do some local river fishing, conditions are looking favourable.

BOM should've kept the storm forecast for Friday, I highly doubt it will stay as 'Partly cloudy'. And even if it does it'd be easier for them to leave it as is. Tricky to forecast though I guess, mind you they're having trouble forecasting most of the country atm..

Bit warmer today than yesterday aand the DP's a little higher as well 35/13 at home atm. As expected a little activity in the SW, thanks EC again.

I vote that we post in here for tomorrow as trough moves across and winds change to E or SE. Then Thursday onwards and potential lingering trough is a new thread.

If you didn't like last night , Your Going to HATE tonight .

Cloud rolled in at optimum timing for High Overnight minimum's .

Ruckle, if you continue posting we will follow for sure.

38C here today, kids are out skiing, I went for a jog before and still trying to cool down now an hour later.

The NSW ECL scenario for this week looks to wash out into the Tasman and Vic's weather changes after this thread hinge on the widescale Easterly Dip situation that will be in place over SE Aus in comming days.

Most model > 4days out are spinning up tropical lows all over the shop - the outlook hence, also will remain a dynmamic situation.

Calm, overcast and 33 C here atm - perfect waterskiing evening.