#1057364 - 17/01/2012 10:01
POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
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Weatherzone Moderator
Registered: 2/11/2001
Loc: Vincent, Townsville - NQld.
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ok, i have started up a poll, tell us what you think.
will the tropics across australia see a wet season from here on in? Will it be average or below average?
poll is open for a week, have a vote and tell us what you think will happen.
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Vincent, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2012 - 15.6mm(62mm)
May 2012 - 0.4mm (17mm)
2012 Year to Date - 1337.0mm (1132mm)
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#1057449 - 17/01/2012 12:40
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Mick10]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 29/06/2008
Loc: Cairns
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I can't see it coming unless something changes dramatically. EC keeps hinting at a monsoon trough on the cape late in its runs but then reverts back to ridging right up into the Torres Strait from unfavourable sth easterlies pushing far too far north for this time of year. Great for showers but not a monsoonal wet. The east coast surface temps directly reflect the shape of the highs through December in to January. On a plus note the nth Coral Sea has warmed a tad in the past week or so.
Still early days I know but this is an April pattern at the moment. Unless we can get a deep easterly flow and a good show from the northern hemisphere (unlikely while the Philippines are flooding) it will be a below average wet! I hope I'm wrong.
On a positive note at least the STJ is living up to its name now and actually staying "sub-tropical".
Wind shear is much lower across the tropics than a fortnight ago.
_________________________
"Politicians and nappies should be changed often and for the same reason"
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#1057453 - 17/01/2012 12:49
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: ColdFront]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 7/02/2007
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
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Wet Season is dead.
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Rain YTD 1234mm May 0mm
Teh WZ Spullin Knig - Dyslexics Untie
Just because you are offended by something I post doesn't always make you right.
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#1057457 - 17/01/2012 12:54
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: ColdFront]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 21/03/2004
Loc: Bluewater Park,Nth of Townsvil...
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I think it will be average from here on and with a bit above average cyclone activity in the CS. Not all hitting the coast though. Maybe 1 or 2 to have coastal crossing.
I think our rain will arrive and we will have a later than normal wet season.
All above based on nothing more than gut feeling,which has been very right in lots of instances throughout my life.
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#1057510 - 17/01/2012 15:04
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Popeye]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 29/12/2008
Loc: Emerald Queensland
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Im going to be optermistic and say good from here on in.
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Mar- 151mm YTD - 475mm
The Block Mar-192.4mm YTD-423.8mm
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#1057512 - 17/01/2012 15:09
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: fnq1]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 30/12/2010
Loc: Mt Convenient - north of Sarin...
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Its late but I doubt we'll see as many cyclones as orignially forecsst last november and I don't expect and great flooding rains. Just the odd period of rain but nothing to write home about.
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When life hands you puddles...Splash in em!
MTD 4.0mm *~* YTD 1621.5mm
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#1057520 - 17/01/2012 15:25
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Wet-Ish]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 7/02/2008
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
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#1057523 - 17/01/2012 15:32
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: bd bucketingdown]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 21/01/2011
Loc: Edmonton (foot of mountains)
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It all comes down to expectations. High expectations usually ends in disappointment!! This season was always bound to be a let down after what happened last wet season.
I think we will get average or above rainfall in most parts but it will probably still seem like a poor wet season. And of course it only takes one cyclone to change everything!
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#1057533 - 17/01/2012 15:41
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Anundsjo]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 18/10/2010
Loc: Rockhampton (Berserker)
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No, very dry. There will be NO real wet at all this year, especially in Central Qld where records will be broken for the dryest start to the year ever!
_________________________
The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.
The Top 10 Reasons I Procrastinate
1.
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#1057552 - 17/01/2012 16:10
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Sandfly]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 5/10/2010
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
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You just can not call the wet as dead yet. It is simply too early. Jan 1967 saw the lowest rainfall ever recorded in that month for Cairns yet Cairns suffered it's fourth biggest flood on record.
As well as that reading about the flood situation of 1977 is interesting as cyclones coming out of the gulf and coastal ridging interacting with the monsoon caused not only the third highest flood on record but quite a few over a short period of time.
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#1057598 - 17/01/2012 17:52
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Brett Guy]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 25/01/2011
Loc: Bundaberg
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In 1998/1999 there was little activity until Mid Jan 99 and that year saw major flooding in Gympie and several smaller floods around QLD all the way through to march.
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#1057660 - 17/01/2012 20:11
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Sandfly]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 17/05/2006
Loc: Yeppoon (Mulambin) QLD , Pert...
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No, very dry. There will be NO real wet at all this year, especially in Central Qld where records will be broken for the dryest start to the year ever! What are you basing this on ?
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#1057662 - 17/01/2012 20:15
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Vinnie]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 5/10/2010
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
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No, very dry. There will be NO real wet at all this year, especially in Central Qld where records will be broken for the dryest start to the year ever! What are you basing this on ? Probably the dryest start to the year ever  Sorry bad joke. My guess is Sandfly is basing this on the same thing most of us are basing our ideas upon. Absolutely nothing at all. So far this season is proving to be pretty much impossible to predict for even the most knowledgable and I don't see that changing.
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#1057707 - 17/01/2012 21:55
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Brett Guy]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 21/11/2010
Loc: Cairns
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I would guess average. People seem to forget that apart for Yasi and Anthony... the last five major TC's Larry, Monica, Steve, Justin and Ingrid all occurred in March and April. Rona was in February.
With cyclones comes the wet, not just with the monsoon (or both)
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Our life is what our thoughts make it... Marcus Aurelius
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#1057728 - 17/01/2012 22:44
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: boomer]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 7/02/2007
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
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The Wet failed to kick start in December OK not a great start but I have lived through worse ones I suppose but then Jan has only just started with a dribble and no we won't make average here in Townsville for Jan no matter what teh models are dribbling about.
The STJ has been AWOL for months, Monsoon trough has decided to spend the season in the northern hemisphere and there is absolutely nothing happening in the Coral Sea worth mentioning and high after high stomping across Australia keeping anything that could form well off the coast via ridging.
Townsville and yes it is just the area i am living in but it is well below average and nothing I have seen via long term modelling, trends or anything else has shown it will improve greatly over the next 2 months. So yes Townsvilles Wet has failed. It's dead as a dodo in my opinion.
Now go on mother nature, prove me wrong - thats a direct challange girlybob.
_________________________
Rain YTD 1234mm May 0mm
Teh WZ Spullin Knig - Dyslexics Untie
Just because you are offended by something I post doesn't always make you right.
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