#1057364 - 17/01/2012 10:01
POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
|
Weatherzone Moderator
Registered: 2/11/2001
Loc: Vincent, Townsville - NQld.
|
ok, i have started up a poll, tell us what you think.
will the tropics across australia see a wet season from here on in? Will it be average or below average?
poll is open for a week, have a vote and tell us what you think will happen.
_________________________
Vincent, Townsville Nth Qld -
April 2012 - 15.6mm(62mm)
May 2012 - 0.4mm (17mm)
2012 Year to Date - 1337.0mm (1132mm)
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1057449 - 17/01/2012 12:40
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Mick10]
|
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 29/06/2008
Loc: Cairns
|
I can't see it coming unless something changes dramatically. EC keeps hinting at a monsoon trough on the cape late in its runs but then reverts back to ridging right up into the Torres Strait from unfavourable sth easterlies pushing far too far north for this time of year. Great for showers but not a monsoonal wet. The east coast surface temps directly reflect the shape of the highs through December in to January. On a plus note the nth Coral Sea has warmed a tad in the past week or so.
Still early days I know but this is an April pattern at the moment. Unless we can get a deep easterly flow and a good show from the northern hemisphere (unlikely while the Philippines are flooding) it will be a below average wet! I hope I'm wrong.
On a positive note at least the STJ is living up to its name now and actually staying "sub-tropical".
Wind shear is much lower across the tropics than a fortnight ago.
_________________________
"Politicians and nappies should be changed often and for the same reason"
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1057453 - 17/01/2012 12:49
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: ColdFront]
|
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 7/02/2007
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
|
Wet Season is dead.
_________________________
Rain YTD 1234mm May 0mm
Teh WZ Spullin Knig - Dyslexics Untie
Just because you are offended by something I post doesn't always make you right.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1057457 - 17/01/2012 12:54
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: ColdFront]
|
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 21/03/2004
Loc: Bluewater Park,Nth of Townsvil...
|
I think it will be average from here on and with a bit above average cyclone activity in the CS. Not all hitting the coast though. Maybe 1 or 2 to have coastal crossing.
I think our rain will arrive and we will have a later than normal wet season.
All above based on nothing more than gut feeling,which has been very right in lots of instances throughout my life.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1057510 - 17/01/2012 15:04
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Popeye]
|
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 29/12/2008
Loc: Emerald Queensland
|
Im going to be optermistic and say good from here on in.
_________________________
Mar- 151mm YTD - 475mm
The Block Mar-192.4mm YTD-423.8mm
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1057512 - 17/01/2012 15:09
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: fnq1]
|
Weather Freak
Registered: 30/12/2010
Loc: Mt Convenient - north of Sarin...
|
Its late but I doubt we'll see as many cyclones as orignially forecsst last november and I don't expect and great flooding rains. Just the odd period of rain but nothing to write home about.
_________________________
When life hands you puddles...Splash in em!
MTD 4.0mm *~* YTD 1621.5mm
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1057520 - 17/01/2012 15:25
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Wet-Ish]
|
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 7/02/2008
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
|
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1057523 - 17/01/2012 15:32
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: bd bucketingdown]
|
Weather Freak
Registered: 21/01/2011
Loc: Edmonton (foot of mountains)
|
It all comes down to expectations. High expectations usually ends in disappointment!! This season was always bound to be a let down after what happened last wet season.
I think we will get average or above rainfall in most parts but it will probably still seem like a poor wet season. And of course it only takes one cyclone to change everything!
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1057533 - 17/01/2012 15:41
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Anundsjo]
|
Weather Freak
Registered: 18/10/2010
Loc: Rockhampton (Berserker)
|
No, very dry. There will be NO real wet at all this year, especially in Central Qld where records will be broken for the dryest start to the year ever!
_________________________
The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.
The Top 10 Reasons I Procrastinate
1.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1057552 - 17/01/2012 16:10
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Sandfly]
|
Weather Freak
Registered: 5/10/2010
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
|
You just can not call the wet as dead yet. It is simply too early. Jan 1967 saw the lowest rainfall ever recorded in that month for Cairns yet Cairns suffered it's fourth biggest flood on record.
As well as that reading about the flood situation of 1977 is interesting as cyclones coming out of the gulf and coastal ridging interacting with the monsoon caused not only the third highest flood on record but quite a few over a short period of time.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1057598 - 17/01/2012 17:52
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Brett Guy]
|
Weather Freak
Registered: 25/01/2011
Loc: Bundaberg
|
In 1998/1999 there was little activity until Mid Jan 99 and that year saw major flooding in Gympie and several smaller floods around QLD all the way through to march.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1057660 - 17/01/2012 20:11
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Sandfly]
|
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 17/05/2006
Loc: Yeppoon (Mulambin) QLD , Pert...
|
No, very dry. There will be NO real wet at all this year, especially in Central Qld where records will be broken for the dryest start to the year ever! What are you basing this on ?
_________________________
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1057662 - 17/01/2012 20:15
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Vinnie]
|
Weather Freak
Registered: 5/10/2010
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
|
No, very dry. There will be NO real wet at all this year, especially in Central Qld where records will be broken for the dryest start to the year ever! What are you basing this on ? Probably the dryest start to the year ever  Sorry bad joke. My guess is Sandfly is basing this on the same thing most of us are basing our ideas upon. Absolutely nothing at all. So far this season is proving to be pretty much impossible to predict for even the most knowledgable and I don't see that changing.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1057707 - 17/01/2012 21:55
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Brett Guy]
|
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 21/11/2010
Loc: Cairns
|
I would guess average. People seem to forget that apart for Yasi and Anthony... the last five major TC's Larry, Monica, Steve, Justin and Ingrid all occurred in March and April. Rona was in February.
With cyclones comes the wet, not just with the monsoon (or both)
_________________________
Our life is what our thoughts make it... Marcus Aurelius
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1057728 - 17/01/2012 22:44
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: boomer]
|
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 7/02/2007
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
|
The Wet failed to kick start in December OK not a great start but I have lived through worse ones I suppose but then Jan has only just started with a dribble and no we won't make average here in Townsville for Jan no matter what teh models are dribbling about.
The STJ has been AWOL for months, Monsoon trough has decided to spend the season in the northern hemisphere and there is absolutely nothing happening in the Coral Sea worth mentioning and high after high stomping across Australia keeping anything that could form well off the coast via ridging.
Townsville and yes it is just the area i am living in but it is well below average and nothing I have seen via long term modelling, trends or anything else has shown it will improve greatly over the next 2 months. So yes Townsvilles Wet has failed. It's dead as a dodo in my opinion.
Now go on mother nature, prove me wrong - thats a direct challange girlybob.
_________________________
Rain YTD 1234mm May 0mm
Teh WZ Spullin Knig - Dyslexics Untie
Just because you are offended by something I post doesn't always make you right.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1057953 - 18/01/2012 16:17
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: FNQ (Tom)]
|
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 17/05/2006
Loc: Yeppoon (Mulambin) QLD , Pert...
|
Sir Boab - What does STJ stand for ?
http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Queensland/Townsville~2146142/long.html
This site tends to indicate some rain, though not super heavy.
_________________________
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1058115 - 18/01/2012 20:02
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: FNQ (Tom)]
|
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 17/11/2001
Loc: Mackay, Nth Beaches -YTD 1153m...
|
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1058127 - 18/01/2012 20:35
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Vinnie]
|
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 29/06/2008
Loc: Cairns
|
What does STJ stand for ?
Subtropical Jetstream. subtropical jet stream, a belt of strong upper-level winds lying above regions of subtropical high pressure. Unlike the polar front jet stream, it travels in lower latitudes and at slightly higher elevations, owing to the increase in height of the tropopause at lower latitudes. The associated horizontal temperature gradients of this jet stream do not extend to the surface, so a surface front is not evident. In the tropics an easterly jet is sometimes found at upper levels, especially when a landmass is located poleward of an ocean, so the temperature increases with latitude.
_________________________
"Politicians and nappies should be changed often and for the same reason"
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1058131 - 18/01/2012 20:38
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: ColdFront]
|
Weather Freak
Registered: 3/08/2011
|
Build it! and they will come! or its building!! the rain will come! lol 
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1058137 - 18/01/2012 20:43
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Tempest]
|
Weather Freak
Registered: 23/01/2011
Loc: Whitsundays
|
I'm going for a BIG LATE WET. soi is still in positive territory even though the BoM has declared the La Nina has peaked and in decline. The LOWs/Cyclones are about to kick off. We were spoilt in 2011 so expectations are too high atm, so sit back, relax, and enjoy.
_________________________
Link to my Davis Vantage Vue weather station at: Mount Julian
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1058141 - 18/01/2012 20:49
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Rainrunner]
|
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 11/01/2006
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
|
I vote February is my best bet we should start to see the Monsoon coming in that may bring a few Tropical Cyclone around the WA and NT and the Queensland coral sea.
_________________________
Winter rock in North Queensland.....
Yearly Total Rainfalls Total 2011-2012> 957.3mm
(Last hour 0.0mm (15.6mm)
Last 24 hour 15.6mm, Last week 15.6mm, last Month 15.6mm.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1058582 - 19/01/2012 23:02
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Mathew]
|
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 17/05/2006
Loc: Yeppoon (Mulambin) QLD , Pert...
|
I am of the understanding that Qld can still get good rainfall irrespective of whether we have La Nina or not (it is not the only factor). If I am to believe some models, it is going to be quite wet down my way next week, but that is what they said last week and we ended up with just 40mm.
_________________________
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1058829 - 20/01/2012 17:04
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Vinnie]
|
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
|
I've said it elsewhere adnauseum , why not once more .
YES , Wet . Late but WET .
_________________________
Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1073770 - 9/02/2012 15:14
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: NeedSomeCash]
|
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 7/02/2007
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
|
Pity it hasn't come off yet NSC.
_________________________
Rain YTD 1234mm May 0mm
Teh WZ Spullin Knig - Dyslexics Untie
Just because you are offended by something I post doesn't always make you right.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1093708 - 20/03/2012 19:49
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Mega]
|
Weather Freak
Registered: 3/08/2011
|
ohh yeah... patience is a virtue :D:D:D
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1093709 - 20/03/2012 19:49
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Mega]
|
Weather Freak
Registered: 18/10/2010
Loc: Rockhampton (Berserker)
|
No wet season at all thus far on the Cap Coast,
_________________________
The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.
The Top 10 Reasons I Procrastinate
1.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
#1093722 - 20/03/2012 20:02
Re: POLL - Will Nth Australia get a decent wet season?
[Re: Sandfly]
|
Weather Freak
Registered: 18/10/2010
Loc: Rockhampton (Berserker)
|
Qld's Wet season in Pictures Cairns  Townsville  Mackay  Bundy  Rocky 
_________________________
The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.
The Top 10 Reasons I Procrastinate
1.
|
|
Top
|
|
|
|
|
26566 Members
31 Forums
21099 Topics
1137303 Posts
Max Online: 2925 @ 2/02/2011 22:23
|
|
|
Previous Topic
Index