#1058122 - 18/01/2012 20:25
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012
[Re: Flood]
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Cloud Gazer
Registered: 30/11/2011
Loc: Woodford Island.NE NSW
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It wouldn't take much to make it flood down this way.The Clarence river is already looking quite swell.Is there another major rain event coming?
_________________________
Life is not about waiting for the storm to pass,It's about learning how to dance in the rain.
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#1058126 - 18/01/2012 20:32
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012
[Re: Locke]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 17/03/2010
Loc: Surfers Paradise, Gold Coast
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Those forecasts were all within 72 hours of the event though.
Put it this way. When biblical falls are reliant upon a model developing a small surface low at 6-7 days out, 99 times out of 100 those rainfalls will not eventuate. I'd be willing to lay odds of 20-1 of falls in excess of 300mm in SE QLD during the next 7 days.
Still a very interesting forecast though and not something you see everyday. I'll take $50 on those odds Locke, minimum of 2 reported weather stations in SEQ as reported by the BOM, just to be fair  Always up for a gamble me lol I reckon there's a fair chance of receiving substantial falls, maybe not as severe as forecasted but certainly worth a punt on less than half their figures! edit: by the way... i'm serious!
Edited by StevefromSurfers (18/01/2012 20:34)
Edit Reason: seriously....
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#1058128 - 18/01/2012 20:36
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012
[Re: StevefromSurfers]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 27/12/2007
Loc: Brisbane
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Maximum bet of $1 Steve. Even though I'm a climate change sceptic I'm yet to receive my paycheck from big oil.
Oh btw I meant no falls in excess of 300mm btw.
Edited by Locke (18/01/2012 20:39)
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#1058139 - 18/01/2012 20:45
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012
[Re: Locke]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 17/03/2010
Loc: Surfers Paradise, Gold Coast
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Ok, $1 it is  damn, was already planning the australia day barbie boat cruise for 8 of us with the winnings then  anyway, back to topic, i reckon we'll have a much better idea of whats going on after the next 2 runs, even still, would be hard to believe that they could back off on such substantial figures to anything that wont be at least causing minor-moderate floods in some coastal areas. edit: 2 stations to record at least 301mm between now and this time next week
Edited by StevefromSurfers (18/01/2012 20:48)
Edit Reason: clarification
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#1058140 - 18/01/2012 20:47
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012
[Re: Locke]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 30/08/2011
Loc: Upper Coomera
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Lets remember folks- that last year the BOM warned QLD that there will be another "wet" summer ahead- so perhaps the rain over the last few days and this coming event will be the start?? We still have another few months to go of "wet season". Will be intersting to see the models over the next 24- 36 hours- if they stay on par with this 400+ event- I would start to get a little concerned. i drive B- Doubles from Brisbane to Cairns every week for a living- and all I can say is that from the amount of saturation I have seen today from around Tiaro all the way down to Bracken Ridge/ Boondall- if this event ( and a big IF) came along- it would be nothing short of a disaster!
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#1058149 - 18/01/2012 20:56
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012
[Re: Occo.]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 30/01/2011
Loc: Moorooka ( Archerfield )
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GFS is full of it , wait until more models come to some kind of agreement before we all take this model as gospel. GFS always over estimates things then tones it down later.
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#1058163 - 18/01/2012 21:25
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012
[Re: Scottie A]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 22/10/2008
Loc: Indooroopilly/Mudgee
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Also, remember GFS looked like it was on the pills before the rain events of summer 10/11, sometimes it is right. It just screws around with the totals for a while.
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#1058170 - 18/01/2012 21:37
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012
[Re: CivEngSean]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 31/12/2007
Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
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Taking it with a pinch of salt at the moment - there were 5 or 6 preceding GFS runs which had a GoC cyclone heading SE towards CQ/SEQ - including this morning's 12z and 18z runs. The 00z run dropped this scenario altogether but maintained a juiced-up monsoonal trough in it's extended run.
Let's see what happens over the next few runs before getting too amped about this coastal trough/strong high scenario.
_________________________
Between the bush and the beach.
2012 YTD 1,192 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.
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#1058176 - 18/01/2012 22:02
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012
[Re: Taylsy]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 29/01/2011
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I notice the 06z run is out - still high totals but has dropped from 00z. Given 06z is often a bit wacky (I think!) does it say much about what to expect next week? Any help interpreting would be great.
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#1058179 - 18/01/2012 22:14
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012
[Re: Squid]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 29/11/2009
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
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The numbers will keep dropping and the bull eyes will change. Very volatile, unpredictable system.
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#1058195 - 18/01/2012 22:42
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012
[Re: Scottie A]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 13/06/2011
Loc: Girards Hill (Lismore)
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If that 06z comes off I'll be getting a few free days off work I think...
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#1058203 - 18/01/2012 23:02
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012
[Re: Inclement Weather]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 31/12/2007
Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
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It looks pretty IW - I must admit just out of curiosity (I am a weather nut, after all) I ran through frame by frame and the extended GFS run is just plain obnoxious.
_________________________
Between the bush and the beach.
2012 YTD 1,192 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.
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#1058206 - 18/01/2012 23:05
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012
[Re: Taylsy]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
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It's evil. We can only hope it is wrong - very wrong.
_________________________
The member formerly known as the donut hole
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