Looks like there is the chance of a rain event with some storms developing again from the 22nd to the 26th+

Tuesday looks like it could be a huge day with 100+mm forecast for NE NSW.




Even the Weather channel has a huge area of rainfall.


Accumulated precip dose not show much but the one before this run did.



Lets see if this time there will be a surface trough and this time that it makes it more west towards the coast.

My unprofessional forecast for this event is that we will have streams of showers again like we did from the 14th - 19th and some areas will spread into rain.

Antonio.

Latest GFS (00z run) is showing massive falls on the 24-25 Jan (144-168hrs) with forecast 500mm bullet on the coast near Gympie, and 400mm in the following 24hrs just off Brisbane.... wow - up to 500mm in each area over 24hrs each would sure make things interesting....

http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?region=brisbane&start=7&stop=8&gribdate=2012011800

Dear oh Dear is interesting indeed, Will definitely be taking a look at 00Z EC this afternoon. Remember before anyone here gets overwhelmed we are looking for consistency between model runs and convergence between individual models before getting panicked or excited

Agreed Scottie. If it was EC showing it for a few runs like the last event I'd be a tad more concerned. But it's only GFS, and I find GFS to be pretty poor that far out.

I also agree - just be interesting as GFS seems to have done ok lately (normally I'd be taking it with more than just a grain of salt).

Also, the "Australia Day Floods of 2012" has a nice ring about it :-p

(Disclaimer: I do not endorse floods that cause lack of life or property in any way, shape or form....)

I for one am glad our "journalists" don't seem to know how to get a look at these extended outlook models. I wouldn't put it past some of them to publish a story about "700mm deluge to swamp SE QLD"...

OMG someone must have had some good drugs at GFS to put out that model. Either that or stockpiling 2 of each animal. Let's just hope that the arc stays away from the Italian coast!

yeah mega i know gfs is pretty crazy this far out but the last couple of runs are atleast showing a pattern even though that could change next run it is only a week out not 16 days

Bear in mind this is not extended GFS nor is it the less reliable 06 and 18Z runs. Certainly a worry at this early stage although the proximity to the coast may be the saving grace if the heaviest falls happen to occur over open water.

I agree Scottie that we need to look for consistency with, and consensus between the major models before we get carried away. One feature I always look for with long term modelling is the positioning, strength, and timing of upper features, in particular, the 500hPa level. I find EC the best for progging mid-level troughs. What I have noticed with both EC and GFS at this early stage is a strong mid-level trough moving over the SE of the continent and cutting off in the coming week. Now, this coincides with what we have just experienced (a practice run if you will) with the last event where we had a strong Tasman high feeding in moist easterlies to a surface trough induced and enhanced by the aforementioned mid-level trough. The present GFS run whilst a long way off is not by any means completely fanciful and does have signs, in any case, that another significant event could be on its way. However, I caution, that as we have just seen with this previous event: timing, strength, and positioning of mid-level troughs is everything when its comes to major rain events.

I just had a close look at the GFS run and what I'm observing is a consistent NE feed into a trough sitting just inland trough at about 140 hours out.

The scariest thing is that the 700mm fall on the BSCH chart is out to 190 hours only. extended GFS then has potentially even greater falls coming in after that.

Given the massive amount of variation I've seen for GFS over recent weeks I'm not overly concerned YET. The very next run might show only 50mm. However, I'd have to say that if the scenario painted by the latest run actually happened you'd be looking at worse flooding than last year.

It surely has to be one of the nastiest forecasts for SE QLD I've seen in a long time.

However this develops over the next week could we all please make sure we stay mature and sensible about this. I can just see this becoming another panic-striken hype fest and it does no one any good.

Of course this could all just change in future model runs...

from what you's are talking about above, heres a few pictures of the rainfall predictions from GFS for next tues and wed (which will probably change though)

Tuesday;

[img]http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weather...ime=20120124-00[/img]


Wednesday;

[img]http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weather...ime=20120125-00[/img]

Even if this event did occur- with- say- 150mm less than forecast falling in the catchments ( this would mean falls of more than 200mm in the catchments)- they should be starting to think about lowering the dam levels. Most of the catchment areas are already saturated from the rain over the past few days. It won't take much for rivers, creeks and dams to rise from this scary outlook!

I'd say if we get 3 days out with some agreement on model runs its time to start getting concerned.

But seriously, given the 700mm out to 180hrs, and probably extended GFS showing an additional 700mm+ ending with a trough still in place and a low to the North that on the basis of the forecast would have to head South, I really don't think I've ever seen a more ominous long range forecast.

Great Post IW, the latest GFS is not a pipe dream, the trending of the major models is for a much wetter pattern to start emerging but just how wet is unknown. If we start seeing GFS, EC and other major models progging huge rainfall figures CONSISTENTLY not just once mabye 2,3,4 runs etc then we can start gaining some confidence in the forecasted outcome.



The Media need to keep calm full stop we do not need an unjustified panic for those people who have just started getting some normality back into their lives after earlier last year.

Interesting question. What do you do if you get 48-72 hours out and GFS is still forecasting doomsday with support from some of the other models. Start dropping the dam to 50%?

I'd hate to be making those sorts of decisions if such a scenario came to pass.

You encourage all the residents to get cracking at washing their cars, houses, driveways...that way you can charge them for the water use regardless whether the flooding rains come or not.

/cynic

What is scary about this is that's it's only 6 days out! If it was 6 weeks I would laugh it off

Hey guys n gals what time does 00z EC come in and could I please pinch the link of someone?
Thanks in advance