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#1058422 - 19/01/2012 16:16 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: pkgjmg]
shama Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 784
Loc: Frenchs Forest, Petrie, QLD (H...
Yup - definately a very different picture painted, although in saying that I don't think 100-200mm for Brisbane over the next week would be entirely unwelcome. It looks as though GFS still has th 23rd-25th Jan looking pretty wet for us, with up to 50-75mm alone progged for the 24 period 24-25 Jan. So I think its still safe to say it'll be a wet Australia Day, but not (at this stage) the very scary scenario painted by the previous 00z run!

Rocky - Bundy are still in for a wet week, with totals of up to 300-350mm, majority of which is falling around the 24-26th. But of course, this far out things could change again - loving the complexity of some of the systems we've had this summer!
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#1058430 - 19/01/2012 16:31 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: shama]
Taylsy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2007
Posts: 1234
Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
It still looks rather wet around coastal parts from Monday to at least Thursday next week, and I am liking the consistency at the moment. 100-200 mm is quite a substantial event in my book.

It is like a chess match - now for the next EC 00z move.
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2018 YTD: 818 mm; 2017: 1,495 mm; 2016: 812 mm; 2015: 1,932 mm; 2014: 943 mm; 2013: 1,501 mm; 2012 1,682 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.

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#1058433 - 19/01/2012 16:41 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: pkgjmg]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7344
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Scottie A
Yes that is an upper low GFS has a much more aggressive upper pattern then EC as usual, EC just has a trough.


Bingo.

I'm looking more at the 500hpa charts to identify the strength and position of the upper trough rather than the surface charts looking for subtle differences in HIGH's strength. If we fast-forward to Monday 12z we see GFS stuck with the idea of an upper cut-off low sitting over the western parts of the state for a few days. It's very similar to the last event we had where we saw showers in the easterly feed enhanced by an upper low to our west. This, in my mind, would be the main factor in the larger totals along the coast I would think. Certainly no massive 500mm event unless of course a little surface feature popped up along the coast in response to the upper low (yesterday's GFS had this idea).

As opposed to EC which has nothing more than a very weak upper trough sitting along or just off the coast (in fact, it doesn't even get a mention by the Bureau after Sunday)

We shall see what EC has to say this afternoon but as IW has said before, EC does have a better handling on these upper troughs than GFS usually does.

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#1058452 - 19/01/2012 17:40 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Mega]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
I'd probably take EC for longer term forecasts but GFS within the 24-72 hour window based on past experience.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1058473 - 19/01/2012 18:10 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Locke]
Squeako da Magnifico. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/06/2005
Posts: 3197
Loc: Caboolture, SE QLD
EC looks a little bit wetter especially late in the run. It doesn't have that ridge pushing through anymore and the winds more NE'ly feeding the trough. But that is 9-10 days away.


Edited by Squeako da Magnifico. (19/01/2012 18:11)
Edit Reason: because, I'm magic!
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#1058480 - 19/01/2012 18:17 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Squeako da Magnifico.]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5244
Loc: Diamond Valley
We have consensus. EC and GFS are actually in lock-step (give or take a step or two) with this scenario now. The latest EC has strengthened the mid-level trough significantly. It even cuts off at one point before being reinforced through by the amplification of another mid-level trough. There is heavy rain progged for the Central Coast by both EC and extended GFS through a long-fetch north easterly feeding into the trough, and moderate rain for SEQ. Now that this pattern seems to be settling to some degree, it remains for adjustments to the positioning, strength, and timing of the trough in conjunction with the Tasman high to see where exactly this significant rain is going to fall.

I have juxtaposed the respective charts to demonstrate this point:




http://wxweb.meteostar.com/leads_images/...P_WINDS_228.gif
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#1058486 - 19/01/2012 18:29 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5244
Loc: Diamond Valley
Continued from above:

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#1058488 - 19/01/2012 18:40 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7344
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Yeah, the upper trough is stronger in this afternoon's EC run, and the 'quidge' that pushes up the coast next week doesn't last very long either! Interesting times ahead no doubt, but still a fair way off yet so plenty of room for change.

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#1058490 - 19/01/2012 18:42 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Inclement Weather]
KevG Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2009
Posts: 166
Loc: Modanville Northern Rivers
Definatly not looking like apocalyptic floods like GFS was showing a little earlier but EC still definatly showing some very decent rain at this early stage .....................gottaI love this time of the year!

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#1058524 - 19/01/2012 20:25 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: KevG]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
Don't flood Bruce highway! I need to get back to Townsville on the second......
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#1058592 - 19/01/2012 23:22 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Noname]
peregrine Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/01/2012
Posts: 22
Loc: Bli Bli, Sunshine Coast
O6z GFS is out...

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#1058595 - 19/01/2012 23:32 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: peregrine]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Want some storms soon.
Rain is looking interesting still rather wait another 4 6 runs before have a good idea on what is going on think GFS still to excited BUT EC is coming around

Had 71mm from last event so that was nice
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#1058600 - 19/01/2012 23:55 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Twister1]
JEFF.H. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 26/12/2002
Posts: 2897
Loc: Oxenford
Here is my QLD extended rainfall outlook video from tonight for those interested...


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#1058627 - 20/01/2012 06:26 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: JEFF.H.]
Taylsy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2007
Posts: 1234
Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
Yikes - check out both GFS and EC this morning. I've only had a look at rainfall totals through bleary eyes but both models are throwing up large totals - particularly GFS. The black nor'easter returns!
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Between the bush and the beach.
2018 YTD: 818 mm; 2017: 1,495 mm; 2016: 812 mm; 2015: 1,932 mm; 2014: 943 mm; 2013: 1,501 mm; 2012 1,682 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.

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#1058631 - 20/01/2012 07:16 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Taylsy]
DanubeRS Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/10/2010
Posts: 254
Loc: Ormiston, SE QLD


LOL...

Boil it down and you will see that this big "blob" comes from the later part of the run, namely 3am Wed to 3am Thur. Less accuraccy the further out, so take it lightly.

Here is the AP outlook for that period, and as you can see, for a 24 hour period, this is somewhat hard to trust.


Edited by DanubeRS (20/01/2012 07:18)

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#1058632 - 20/01/2012 07:19 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: DanubeRS]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2937
Loc: Mt Warren Park
it will be interesting to see what the 00z throw's up this afternoon that's for sure!
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#1058636 - 20/01/2012 07:44 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: pkgjmg]
Anthony Cornelius Offline
Meteorologist

Registered: 22/05/2001
Posts: 5162
Loc: Brisbane
It's a long way out...so won't comment on that too much. But it's interesting that the BoM released an outlook on the news for "average summer rainfall" for SE QLD now... I'm not sure how they get to that, given the general patterns over the coming weeks look quite wet and we're not even in an active MJO phase right now. Unless they're basing it on combining a dryish December into the mix.

Synoptically, the patterns we're moving into aren't too dissimilar to the build up before last year's floods. I'm not saying we're going to get a repeat, but there's certainly (at least for the next couple of weeks) a favoured wet pattern for us, whether that's just showers or heavy rain though we'll have to see.

AC
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#1058639 - 20/01/2012 07:53 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: pkgjmg]
StevefromSurfers Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 294
Loc: Surfers Paradise
Well GFS really has got it in for Brisbane hasn't it. Bullseyed right for the CBD.

I'm starting to think that with their persistence in moderate to heavy totals for the near future, some places are going to see some flooding. Either that or GFS will seriously lose some respect for mid-long term forecasting.

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#1058642 - 20/01/2012 08:07 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: StevefromSurfers]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
GFS is really playing the tease right now. 2 days of model predictions of big falls for either SE or Central QLD but always at 6-7 days out. Interesting that EC is now starting to line up a little more with GFS (as per Taylsy's comment).

I remember leading into Christmas last year, GFS had about 8 consecutive runs showing massive rainfall totals for SE QLD but forecast at about 24-48 hours out. The rain ended up falling around Rockhampton.

The waiting game continues I guess.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1058645 - 20/01/2012 08:13 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: StevefromSurfers]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5244
Loc: Diamond Valley
Agreed AC, a definite pattern looks to be setting in over the next couple of weeks. Here is the WATL ensemble chart for 24-27 Jan:



As mentioned, both EC and GFS are now going for at least 200mm plus for the region over their respective runs.
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