Well the inland trough will provide some focus for thunderies for the next few days. General consensus of the models is a chance out east particularly on the ranges today and tomorrow and then the west is a chance Sunday. Activity looks to quieten down for a day or so after that (although its not impossible that it wont) but it should give us a border on this thread.

Anyway somewhere for thunderbob to post his obs as he will probably have a reasonable view compared to the rest of us for the next day or so!


For those not getting storms in the south, looks kind of muggy.

been waiting....as strong SE wind is blowing to SA as looks the trough is siting from NSW VIC

Not excited by this setup at all. Storms will probably be too far north east today and tomorrow and too far west on Sunday. It has been pretty dry and boring up here since Xmas and that looks set to continue for a while yet.

Yeah the uppers may be getting quite warmish over central and western parts. But for our friends out east will have something to see. Got an STW on my phone just a little while ago for the high country storm.

Some (reasonable) activity on the Divide again today. On the coast and up to the foothills it's still (in early afternoon) a layer of flat coastal cloud extending from west of Melb nearly to Mallacoota. Cells are forming north of that on the Divide - showing up well on the sat image. No sign yet of this coastal cloud burning off here.

They definitely fired up north of the border.

Remained (as above) all day here. No activity west or south of Omeo. (By radar) there was lots of sustained activity in the far east and, of course, (as dlcat1 says)the continuing quite spectacular storm activity on and around the Monaro.

Felt very promising at Loy Yang lunchtime, very warm humid, overcast and calm. But by 4pm, still overcast but temps and humidity had backed off to be similar to Melbournes lunchtime obs.

Hoping to see some lightning tomorrow evening.

Developing into a mild summer eh?

Thermometer under back verandah reached 40C today.

Jeez thunderunder! - surely with circa 20+% humidity as well! This is an interesting summer for us Vics.

Didn't get over 20 today, very good conditions for my first match of the year today

Tennis?

Well other than cloud and murk burning off in Melbourne (unlike today) Saturday looks like a carbon copy of today. Bit of build up and even some action out east and thats about it. Sunday looking less convincing for the west / or anywhere for that matter but heres hoping...

looks heaps of moist slowy going down from NW Victoria...

Yep, I reckon the temperature could be a few degrees lower like today depending on what time the cloud starts to break up, if it only breaks up at 2 then it might only get to 25 or so.

Interesting to see that its slightly warmer and damper than yesterday morning. As for the temps today in Melbourne, think closeness to bay might matter a bit.Eastern highlands still looking active this arvo.

have low clouds blowing from SE but NE wind is kind of burn it off slowly

Few clouds around but burn off not rising into the upper level at all.

Cloud breaking up slowly here. Had a light but steady 20 min rain about 2pm. radar shows some activity right up on the Divide but seems no strong development.

well storms in NE and when sun goes down then cool breeze SE wind blow inland once North East wind weaken

A bit of drizzle here at breakfast time, calm morning with low cloud general with lots of lower scuddy rags about. At 1pm a cool easterly set in and has stayed since - 25.8 C max here probably at circa 1pm.

A boring day here weatherwise.

Any thoughts on chasing the west of the state tomorrow? GFS has some decent instability progged, but looking at the synoptic the trough might be a little too far away to trigger storms. Shear looks dreadful too.

Jeez Meso, I'd reckon you'd have to head to Nhill and even then be prepared to chase SW'ward. That's a long trip back.

However I'm no storm chasing Guru.

Nhill is only 4 hours away lol

So storm movement will be to SW??? Don't think I've seen that before. That's what the upper winds are saying though and thats how we predict movement, yeah?

But yeah, I'm not keen on a huge drive home on a Sunday tbh. Hanging out for a storm though, been a shocking season for me compared to last!

Oh dear...my daughter's in Nhill for the weekend and guess who forgot to take her camera?

Dont get hung up on any Petros storm prediction please, I'm way down the list of posters to this forum in terms of meteorological expertise. Re SW'l movement, I was simply looking at where the 300 hPa winds should be flowing tomorrow at 5 pm.

Hope you end up chasing and provide us with a photo!

Hey Petros
I got it wrong about potential storm activity for last night and today. The 'systems' have been shifting all over the place.
Sat on the decking vegging for a while this arvo and watched some great quick forming bundles of clouds with rotation and updraughts.
Got video of it too. Putting it together atm and some may find it interesting to watch.
The cloud bundles were just forming out of 'nowhere' in the blue sky. The wind was all over the place.
I am speeding up the video combination X2 so that it is easier to watch. Bit jittery sped up - looks like I've dosed up on the whole coffee jar
Anyway, I'll add a link to the vid (Youtube) in my signature bar if anyone is interested in having a sqizz at it
Cheers

Just been outside for some fresh air, and notced lots of lightning action to the North-East. Really lighting the sky up. Thought I'd see how close it was, couldn't hear nothin'. Darn things at Ivanhoe, 243.73 kilometres (151.45 miles) away. Boy are they being smashed. I thought it must have been just up the road, the way it's light that sky up. I guess It won't be waking me up.

Nothing to report from here, just sun, sun and more sun.

Did anything pop upon the ranges yesterday? Sorry, I was at tennis from 930am till midnight and just wondering.

As for today, looks warm to hot and frankly damper than I would want it without a guarantee of storms!

Storms over the west of the state do look possible, ACCG really keen even has Melbourne and its west getting a shot which is hard to see. Ukmet gives the western 3rd of the state a shot, GFS only has slight chance on NE ranges and EC zilch. Big old high moved across Tassie overnight, a pretty good pressure surge in fact, surface trough (such as it is)according to BOM 5am maps is just west of Melbourne. There does appear to be a high at almost all levels of the atmosphere just to west of surface high, this means very warm uppers and if anything does form it may move them somewhere from W to S. Might even move the trough/trigger westward further from current position. All in all I am not sure Ill head out but also have an inkling that my SDS may create some regret about that later..

I think Victoria keep dry and trough keep stay in East and i just blame the wind shear to keep thunderstorms in NSW

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Well I think you are onto something although the trough is over western parts of the state

Sounding is pretty interesting, big cap (all those highs mentioned earlier)but quite unstable above 650hpa or so. We just need a trigger and not sure the piddly trough will do it.

First time ive seen smoke/haze on the forecast explorer, new feature? Also I really doubt that there will be anything in the metro area, maybe Daylseford or around there but not Melbourne.

Pretty solid cu build up, particularly to the NW atm.

Storms in NW boarder going West / South direction
I don't want rubbish junk of cirrus clouds from those thunderstorms fly over East....

So much for the predicted 35, I think it was. 37.2 degrees here at the moment. 43% Humidity, which feels like 100%. Cloud starting to build.

Clear. Mild with a moderate SE. Heading to Bendigo for a few days and then off to NT for work.

Sky has started to erupt here, for the past half hour or so. Storms are really building now. Sorry folks, they're heading to the west. That's crazy. I had to check the bottle to make sure, I pick up the soda water, and not the strong stuff.

Very Large Rain Drops and small hail at Red Cliffs. Blockies are praying.

Didn't last long, but South Australia Beware, that baby is just warming up. The pings on the roof, brought everyone out, and I think most were holding their breath.

If the trough sits along Vic,SA boarder why no storms build up in center to East Victoria because heaps humid air is coming from SE/NE direction...looks like dry hole.. and wind shear is going NE direction.

Hear from you when you get back TB.

Similar to TB weather here, cloudy morning broke up steadily to be fully sunny by late arvo nudging us up to 27.5C event with a very fresh Easterly wind which is still with us now.

Agree with Blackie, its surely not that often that we see all the storm cells currently going up in far W Vic all heading WSW'wards!

Just because its humid it doesnt mean there will be storms. You need a trigger. The trigger is the surface trough to the west. Its not that strong so not much is going on to far away from it. As for the uppers, as mentioned this morning we have a pretty warm airmass with a highs analysed by the BOM over us or just to our sth west up till at least 500hpa height. This means the flow over a huge chunk of the atmosphere is easterly (or thereabouts) pushing the storms westward. The most easterly developing lightning active shwr has been the one near Stawell. Ukmet did a pretty good job with today.

Yeah Teckert linked me to a site, http://www.downunderchase.com/storminfo/stormguide/guide02.html as to what you need for one to develop, good read that taught me somethings, albeit I still dont understand some stuff but im getting there!

Thanks Petros. Of course I'll still keep half an eye of things down here. I plan to open a thread on the Tropical and Central Australia forum to post the occassional comment and obs. Cheers.