gove radar is back up and looking good, hopefully we get another line this afternoon before it starts to centralize

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:30 pm CST Saturday 21 January 2012

Valid until the end of Tuesday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough is becoming more active over the Timor and Arafura Seas and
will move slowly south over the weekend. A weak low pressure system has formed
in the northwest Gulf of Carpanteria, along the trough, and is expected to move
west toward the Timor Sea over the next few days and may develop further.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:
Sunday: Very Low.
Monday: Low.
Tuesday: Moderate.

I can't don't see this Tropical low moving into the NT/WA area at the moment.

It's looks like it's is moving slowly and developing more it's looks like at the moment.

It's looks like it's is going to go into the GoC water I am tipping a good %50 to %50 chance it's well could develop into a cat 1 Tropical Cyclone or a cat 2 Tropical Cyclone maybe an possible cat 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone if it's move into the GoC waters with the next few days.

This will be watch very closely by the BoM and the weather zone forums.

I like to know what do you all think about that one?

I will left that as that and see what happen from there.

Very interesting times ahead next 3-5 day period. Models are all over the place and split with decisions on exactly where TC development will occur. GFS , CMC now back in line for GOC system others have TC development over NE Coral sea off Cairns - Townsville region some have systems across WA , GOC and FNQ. The whole Northern region is prime for cyclone development and when strong NW Monsoon kicks in in the next few days a whole lot of action will more than likely ramp up. Wouild not be surprised at all to see multiple systems across the region. At any rate it is going to get very wet across northern Australia.

Little low NE of Gove starting to look a bit healthier on sat pics , plenty of convection in the area will be interesting to see how it goes overnight.

Im glad i mowed the lawns this week. looks like we are all in for something from east to west, windy, wet or both. Love the option on your web page to go full screen.

the updrafts look to be continuing this morning, it appears as though an upper level anti cylone is forming and helping the system generate cloud in the south eastern side

Models still split on latest runs with GFS , CMC still intent on SE movement of low into GOC. Access and EC still have low moving west across the NT, however on latest runs have slowed that movement. I think the longer the low stays in the Gove area before moving the greater chance , as pointed out by others , it will have of adopting a SE movement into the GOC. Shear and SST's are very good so with a good NW monsoon kicker should not have to much trouble reaching TC status if it stays over open water.

According to latest GFS run the surface low is actually closer to Cape York. Weipa radar has hints of a circulation in the area where GFS says this low is supposed to be.

Of note ,

Like Nitso has wisely suggested , there will be a Strong / Broad WNW Monsoonal flow that will really ramp up Precip's and give the helping hand to cyclone Genesis .

From what I think I can see on the Sat Map , it looks as though that WNW flow has really started ramping up Nth of Java in the Java Sea . The leading edge of the eastward advancemnet is already near/ nth of Bali / Lombok .

This could be a really good visual guide ( in the next 12-24 hrs ) to which way these small lows start moving before we even see a LLCC start to really spin up , consolidate and amplify . So from a lay mans angle ( I would watch the advancement East + strength vs the gradual lowering sth of the entire monsoonal line to an area of influence on these small cells . )

So if we see the advancement make it well to the Eastern side of GOC or even Cape York , then upon lowering (sth ward slide ) we may see GFS pull off the Unthinkable . " Eastward movement " before intensifying . If this is the case , QLd's may want to invest time drawing up action plans .?

Well if i was a betting man i would still say its NNW of Gove tracking slowly west. Having said that its rotation doesnt appear as pronounced as yesterdays and there may be several reasons for that, one of which it is now a little too distant from radar accuracies and also the fact it may have washed out a little due to the broadening of the general trough.the developing cloud signatures to me shows it to still be Nth of Gove.

I am tipping the next 24/48 hours time or Tomorrow we well could see an possible Tropical Cyclone watch or Tropical Cyclone warning for the top end and the GOC waters.

Time will only tell.

Watch this sapce!!!!

Diurnal ....

Tropical cyclone outlook
Douglas Fenton, Sunday January 22, 2012 - 13:38 EDT

The monsoon trough is strengthening, bringing an increased risk of cyclone activity to Australian waters.

Currently located over the northern parts of WA and the NT, the monsoon trough is a region of high moisture and instability that commonly spawns low pressure systems. These lows then have the potential to produce heavy rain and squally winds and occasionally grow into tropical cyclones.

There is a moderate to high chance of at least one tropical cyclone developing in Australian waters this week. The most likely location is over northwest waters, with northern waters also at significant risk.

A weak low pressure system has formed over waters in the northwest Gulf of Carpentaria. This low is currently expected to move west towards the Timor Sea and may intensify. This system is rated as having a 20-50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday.

Another low pressure system over northwest waters is even more likely to intensify into a tropical cyclone. This system has the potential to track over the Kimberly or Pilbara coast bringing another bout of heavy rain and squally winds, following Tropical Cyclone Heidi's visit earlier this month.

Check weatherzone.com.au for the latest updates.

Activity exploding over NW GOC great feed coming down with NW Monsoon next 12 hrs or so will be the key as yet still hard to define exactly where a LLCC will appear looks to be a number of suspect spots from middle of the Northern GOC across the top of the NT coastline. Looking forward to next model runs to see if GFS still sticks to its guns of a SE moving system across the GOC and what EC considers. Original EC runs from last two days had low pushing further west across Arafura sea towards Tiwi islands by now which has not occurred. Whilst GFS has some poor form re cyclones it may be closer to the mark this time.

Just checked out current Visible sat loop http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/vsmtsatw.html looks like great rotation starting to spin up quite evident North - North east of Gove.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Sunday 22 January 2012

Valid until the end of Wednesday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough is becoming more active over the Timor and Arafura Seas. A
Tropical Low, 1004 hPa, is located off the north Arnhem coast. The low is
expected to move slowly west or southwest during the next few days and may enter
the Timor Sea.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:
Monday: Low.
Tuesday: Moderate.
Wednesday: Moderate.

GFS sticking to its guns!