A bit of drizzle here at breakfast time, calm morning with low cloud general with lots of lower scuddy rags about. At 1pm a cool easterly set in and has stayed since - 25.8 C max here probably at circa 1pm.

A boring day here weatherwise.

Any thoughts on chasing the west of the state tomorrow? GFS has some decent instability progged, but looking at the synoptic the trough might be a little too far away to trigger storms. Shear looks dreadful too.

Jeez Meso, I'd reckon you'd have to head to Nhill and even then be prepared to chase SW'ward. That's a long trip back.

However I'm no storm chasing Guru.

Nhill is only 4 hours away lol

So storm movement will be to SW??? Don't think I've seen that before. That's what the upper winds are saying though and thats how we predict movement, yeah?

But yeah, I'm not keen on a huge drive home on a Sunday tbh. Hanging out for a storm though, been a shocking season for me compared to last!

Oh dear...my daughter's in Nhill for the weekend and guess who forgot to take her camera?

Dont get hung up on any Petros storm prediction please, I'm way down the list of posters to this forum in terms of meteorological expertise. Re SW'l movement, I was simply looking at where the 300 hPa winds should be flowing tomorrow at 5 pm.

Hope you end up chasing and provide us with a photo!

Hey Petros
I got it wrong about potential storm activity for last night and today. The 'systems' have been shifting all over the place.
Sat on the decking vegging for a while this arvo and watched some great quick forming bundles of clouds with rotation and updraughts.
Got video of it too. Putting it together atm and some may find it interesting to watch.
The cloud bundles were just forming out of 'nowhere' in the blue sky. The wind was all over the place.
I am speeding up the video combination X2 so that it is easier to watch. Bit jittery sped up - looks like I've dosed up on the whole coffee jar
Anyway, I'll add a link to the vid (Youtube) in my signature bar if anyone is interested in having a sqizz at it
Cheers

Just been outside for some fresh air, and notced lots of lightning action to the North-East. Really lighting the sky up. Thought I'd see how close it was, couldn't hear nothin'. Darn things at Ivanhoe, 243.73 kilometres (151.45 miles) away. Boy are they being smashed. I thought it must have been just up the road, the way it's light that sky up. I guess It won't be waking me up.

Nothing to report from here, just sun, sun and more sun.

Did anything pop upon the ranges yesterday? Sorry, I was at tennis from 930am till midnight and just wondering.

As for today, looks warm to hot and frankly damper than I would want it without a guarantee of storms!

Storms over the west of the state do look possible, ACCG really keen even has MElbourne and its west getting a shot which is hard to see. Ukmet gives the western 3rd of the state a shot, GFS only has slight chance on NE ranges and EC zilch. Big old high moved across Tassie overnight, a pretty good pressure surge in fact, surface trough (such as it is)according to BOM 5am maps is just west of Melbourne. There does appear to be a high at almost all levels of the atmosphere just to west of surface high, this means very warm uppers and if anything does form it may move them somewhere from W to S. Might even move the trough/trigger westward further from current position. All in all I am not sure Ill head out but also have an inkling that my SDS may create some regret about that later..

I think Victoria keep dry and trough keep stay in East and i just blame the wind shear to keep thunderstorms in NSW

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Well I think you are onto something although the trough is over western parts of the state

Sounding is pretty interesting, big cap (all those highs mentioned earlier)but quite unstable above 650hpa or so. We just need a trigger and not sure the piddly trough will do it.

First time ive seen smoke/haze on the forecast explorer, new feature? Also I really doubt that there will be anything in the metro area, maybe Daylseford or around there but not Melbourne.

Pretty solid cu build up, particularly to the NW atm.

Storms in NW boarder going West / South direction
I don't want rubbish junk of cirrus clouds from those thunderstorms fly over East....

So much for the predicted 35, I think it was. 37.2 degrees here at the moment. 43% Humidity, which feels like 100%. Cloud starting to build.

Clear. Mild with a moderate SE. Heading to Bendigo for a few days and then off to NT for work.

Sky has started to erupt here, for the past half hour or so. Storms are really building now. Sorry folks, they're heading to the west. That's crazy. I had to check the bottle to make sure, I pick up the soda water, and not the strong stuff.

Very Large Rain Drops and small hail at Red Cliffs. Blockies are praying.

Didn't last long, but South Australia Beware, that baby is just warming up. The pings on the roof, brought everyone out, and I think most were holding their breath.