#1063058 - 25/01/2012 10:24
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [tech/reports]
[Re: Scottie A]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 28/10/2010
Loc: Ormiston, SE QLD
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Is this convective activity on the loop now? (2242Z)? Very defined band, which went offshore over my head not that long ago. Went from windy and pouring, to calm and limited precip. Looks to be convective thanks to the recycling intensity. Another thing, Bellmere Weather shows a surface low right on top of us, with its eastern trough forming what seems to be the boundary of the offshore convergence. ( http://www.bellmereweather.net/ChartLocalWind.html) Any discussion is more than welcome.
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#1063098 - 25/01/2012 11:17
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [tech/reports]
[Re: DanubeRS]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/09/2009
Loc: Spring Mountain, Brisbane
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Latest GFS run turns the focus to NSW with most of the heavy falls over with for SE QLD (with the exception of the Gold Coast).
The last EC run on the other hand extends the event another week for SE QLD with particularly heavy falls later in the period as the monsoon low gets dragged into central QLD.
If you live in SE QLD right now you would be praying that EC does not prove accurate. You will most likely find that because this event is later in the run GFS will come onboard with the EC Scenario just give it time, has been progged very consistently. As for the next 24hrs the rainfall for SEQ will be convective/storms which is always underestimated by the models even though EC already seems to be picking up on some decent falls.
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#1063184 - 25/01/2012 12:39
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [tech/reports]
[Re: Scottie A]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 13/07/2007
Loc: Brisbane
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Some have referred to the 'convergence zone', but I can't seem to see any evidence of convergence in the Brisbane doppler. There is an obvious line where something is happening, which passes pretty much over the radar, and corresponds to the heavy rain. But looking at the doppler radar I can't get any hint of winds converging, but seem to see more of a shear effect with winds on the east side of the line being much stronger than winds on the west. Does anyone else have any thoughts on whether this is the case, and what would cause it?
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#1063212 - 25/01/2012 13:02
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [tech/reports]
[Re: Mike Hauber]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/09/2009
Loc: Spring Mountain, Brisbane
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Hi Mike, Having Stronger winds directed into slower winds is a form of speed related convergence, but If you have a look at surface wind streamlines on wz radar or look at surface obs you will see that there is a directional component and infact a surface low located over Rathdowney area. Remember with convergence zones they are just not on the surface either and generally extend throughout the lowers and mids depending on the strength of the upper feature. You also have Temperature and Moisture Boundary's etc which all play there part in forced lifting and convection.
Edited by Scottie A (25/01/2012 13:06)
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#1063236 - 25/01/2012 13:43
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [tech/reports]
[Re: Scottie A]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/06/2001
Loc: Caboolture, ~45km north of Bri...
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Hi Mike,
Having Stronger winds directed into slower winds is a form of speed related convergence, but If you have a look at surface wind streamlines on wz radar or look at surface obs you will see that there is a directional component and infact a surface low located over Rathdowney area. Remember with convergence zones they are just not on the surface either and generally extend throughout the lowers and mids depending on the strength of the upper feature. You also have Temperature and Moisture Boundary's etc which all play there part in forced lifting and convection. Nicely put Scottie. Just to expand on that - convergence at the surface results in upwards motion because the air can't sink (because of the ground) so it has no option but to rise. When there's convergence above the surface it's going to result in sinking air. The rising air around these systems in the mid and upper levels is caused by a 'pull' from above from diverging air flow or from air of different density being advected over each other (ie warm over over denser cooler air, the warm air rises - if it's moist enough it rains. The classic backing with height wind profile that we see with some of these systems is a perfect example of this warm air advection).
Edited by Ben Quinn(Bodie) (25/01/2012 13:44)
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#1063261 - 25/01/2012 14:18
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [tech/reports]
[Re: Ben Quinn(Bodie)]
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Cloud Gazer
Registered: 15/01/2012
Loc: Brisbane
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I love that comment Ben! Now that is meteorology folks.
Speed convergence is very significant for Qld. Classic Speed convergence is when surges push up the coast and give heavy falls to NQ. These surges that are essentially stronger winds knocking up against weaker winds give vast uplift and continual ascent and activity.
Anyways, the new ACCESS-R run is very interesting. Even though it has not done that well for today, I still like to see what it is thinking. Looks like NE NSW will get some good activity into tomorrow, 850hPa winds 20-25 knots sounds very good.
_________________________
Secret.Bubbles
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#1063306 - 25/01/2012 14:59
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [tech/reports]
[Re: Moisties_9999]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/09/2009
Loc: Spring Mountain, Brisbane
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Sure looks like an odd feature them storms out west..... are they rotating around a Surface low? Sure looks like it could be the case.... Developing MCS hidden by radar distance? now coming range. Sure looks like an odd feature them storms out west..... are they rotating around a Surface low? Sure looks like it could be the case.... MCS? hard to tell scottie but certainly possible as these spread out to thundery rain areas overnight. The surface obs seem to suggest a surface low / MCS. There is definitely clockwise rotation of the storm cells on the radar. Anyone with greater knowledge please feel free to let us know your thoughts.
Edited by Scottie A (25/01/2012 15:02)
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#1063324 - 25/01/2012 15:12
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [tech/reports]
[Re: Scottie A]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 28/01/2011
Loc: James Cook University, Townsvi...
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Looks very interesting for the monsoonal low heading for us this weekend. No biggie surprise for gale force NW winds across the region....
_________________________
Bachelor of Science (2012)
Majoring in climate change and disaster management
James Cook University Townsville
TropEco Assistant JCU (Environmental Sustainability program)
Supercell Hunters-Australian most amateur storm chasing
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#1063878 - 25/01/2012 23:51
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [tech/reports]
[Re: Scottie A]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/09/2009
Loc: Spring Mountain, Brisbane
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Sure looks like an odd feature them storms out west..... are they rotating around a Surface low? Sure looks like it could be the case.... Developing MCS hidden by radar distance? now coming range. Sure looks like an odd feature them storms out west..... are they rotating around a Surface low? Sure looks like it could be the case.... MCS? hard to tell scottie but certainly possible as these spread out to thundery rain areas overnight. The surface obs seem to suggest a surface low / MCS. There is definitely clockwise rotation of the storm cells on the Radar. Anyone with greater knowledge please feel free to let us know your thoughts. I do realize I was premature in talking about an MCS got a little excited as the best and worst of us do sometimes, I did forget to say "Developing" as the current EC run at the time was hinting towards this kind of outcome. However if you review the radar loop from this afternoon and take a look up near dalby you will see atleast one surface low spinning up along the troughline. Obs from the area also back this up IMO.
Edited by Scottie A (25/01/2012 23:53)
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#1063916 - 26/01/2012 01:57
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [tech/reports]
[Re: Scottie A]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 26/12/2002
Loc: Oxenford
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No surface low Scott just backing with height mate  seems the area to the northern Downs had stronger upslope and heat today. Tomorrow looks much better for activity. Nice thread that got going here Love the OMG outlook GFS has on the TL wish it would hurry up and drop it off into a trough , oh well jumps models for a while
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#1064046 - 26/01/2012 10:48
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [tech/reports]
[Re: JEFF.H.]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/09/2009
Loc: Spring Mountain, Brisbane
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No surface low Scott just backing with height mate seems the area to the northern Downs had stronger upslope and heat today. Tomorrow looks much better for activity. Nice thread that got going here Love the OMG outlook GFS has on the TL wish it would hurry up and drop it off into a trough , oh well jumps models for a while So what your saying is that the cells heading in a SW direction and getting wrapped/ingested into the system are lower topped thus tapping into steering flow around the 850mb-700mb level, convective inflow if you will. I thought I saw something a little more organized there possibly radar beam/intensities obstructed by topography somewhat.
Edited by Scottie A (26/01/2012 10:52)
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