With GFS hinting at some big falls for some time now and the BOM now forecasting areas of rain for most districts, especially the NE of the state.

I recorded 21.7mm to 9am this morning including 10mm in 10mins. There have been a few showers about here today, very humid easterly winds at time quite strong.

Anyway good luck to any chasers and stay safe
Cheers Eddy

Quite agree, looks very interesting from mid week, certainly will be plenty of rain in many places. However this event may take all the way to the 31st Jan to work through since EC has the rain ending in another fairly strong cold change at the end of the month. Still plenty of discrepancy with GFS that has an upper low forming that will drive a very wet surface low at the end of the week around the Hunter/Sydney and CT's. I think most of us should get a fair amount of rain except for the far west and south.

The only unfortunate thing is that there is absolutely no sign of any summer in the next couple of weeks. Still looks like the coldest summer in recorded history is assured for around here, have been only a handful of days that were actually warm rather than cold in the whole summer.

Would be nice if some of that rain could head down south to us. Looks like Jan 2012 will remain rainless. Can beleive how dry it has been this month. We are getting a bit of summer with temps in low 30's. Today got to 31 today.
Duane.

Nice start Eddy Boy.
Looks like a good event coming. Some of the insane totals GFS has been progging sounded beyond belief, but in reality, they may not be too far off the mark. Let's see how it pans out. Certainly looks like a very coastal event, but I'm hoping that some of our inland brethren get a taste as well.



Certainly think the dates may be extended eventually.



I can't say I'm unhappy about that. Best building summer ever. Nice and cool, day after day.

Homer

Duane ACCESS models has very good rainfall over all of NSW late next week-ish.

Had some off and on showers here for the past hour. 1.8 mm's in the gauge.
It's nice sitting here in the office working and listening to the rain falling outside.

Just lovely. Bring on the rest.

Homer.

Just looking more carefully at 06z GFS you can see the same low tracking from near Darwin latter tomorrow to all the way to central NSW by late Saturday. EC has a similar trend although the low is not as obvious on EC which shows a more general trough. How this pans out and how the timing works out with the next approaching cold front next week will be key to how events unfold.


I can understand how great this weather is for outdoor work, good to see it having some benefits. However today while I trying to have a short nap in my lunch break, I was shivering despite having a jacket with me. Amazing for mid January to be still begging for warmth (at least from me).

Not much happening here in rain atm, just the odd spit of drizzle and the usual low cloud/fog streaking across in strong winds, around sunset had a very wintry look to the sky with blowing fragmented low cloud and some high cloud above but near 13deg in the brisk wind. Still have plenty of catch up to get to normal rain with only 32mm MTD.

Oh Peter, how I envy you!! Having 13 degrees temps in Jan at this time of night.
This summer though is the coolest I can remember.
Even at 7.30 am at Concord this morning, there was a moderate easterly and it was completely overcast. It was so surprisingly cool for a January morning. As a one off event, it wouldn't be surprising. But it's been the same for so much of the summer.
I just love it, and I'm loving it even more as we draw upon Autumn. The closer we get to Autumn, the closer I get to a heat stress free summer on the building site.

Homer

same here. It is really dry, although at least we are not getting the high temperatures (yet). But the ground is dusty and the grass is dying off, the roos are getting desperate and eating down all the lawns. I had to turn up the times for all the lawn and garden irrigation. NE NSW is so wet, and we're so dry. Like before last year's La Nina thing, most of our rainfall comes from storms.

Back to the topic at hand, latest GFS shows there's some hefty totals being forecast.





I'll be happy if even a slice of those totals come off.
Some good stuff for our inland friends as well, although, it unfortunately looks a little lame for many places around the state/territory. Could be a bit hit or miss, but for those that score a hit, it could be a cracker!

Homer

GFS is sticking with its guns, drawing that low from Darwin down into NSW by late Saturday and all the way to Victoria combining with a cold front by next Monday. EC is broadly in agreement although the low not as well defined. This would give some great totals for Canberra and Ants place and through many inland places west of the divide. The coast will get plenty of rain too as the moisture continues to feed in from the East.

Went for a walk down to the beach this morning, lots of very high puffy cloud out to the ocean, looked like a [censored]-tonne of moisture.

been watching the radar tracking down NSW towards Canberra. If we have a decent day with some heat in it, maybe the storms come in from gungahlin end, as they did a couple of weeks back. These are the storms that seem to be most powerful, the ones from the snowies are nice, but the northern NSW driven storms seem to be better.

as for rain, my place is pretty much green all round, in fact, the roos have been venturing in from the hills - makes for interesting suburban driving, and a lack of mowing.

current temp is low - 20 degrees.

Wish this could delay by a day, by all means give us 100mm+, but just not tomorrow on game day! Forecast for rain now, two days ago it was just a chance of a shower.

Hope it doesn't put everybody off coming.

Took me a while to work out Game Day - you must mean the A league Game Correct? Be a shame for sure to have something like that washed out, we don't get many looks at high level sport. All we can do is wait and see.

Wow, West of the ranges should get a very decent soaking on the weekend!

Yeah, first ever competition game here and it looks like it'll be a dour atmosphere. They've already been complaining about the surface, can't imagine it would be any better after an inch of rain.

Still, i'll be there with bells and whistles on!

GFS is remarkably consistent with that low coming down from the NT. 00z still has it tracking over NSW passing near the CT's and Sydney on its way south, and now with a pressure of just 990mb around here and heaps of rain of course.

For Thursday models have eased up so no need to worry about too much rain here on Australia day, but the weekend will be really WET.

Currently saying 150-200mm over Sydney in the next 7 days, that'd be a nice record breaker if it eventuates.

G'day fellas!

Looks like I'm about to return to NSW/ACT! My girlfriend and I are planning to head up to Sydney this Friday for around 7-9 days or so.

This rain-bearing system extending down from Northern Australia sure looks impressive, could be some very nasty flooding across NSW/ACT over the next week. Would be great if there's some thunderstorms involved!

This is the most ridiculous run of EC i've ever seen for this time of year.. onshore trough, followed by a monsoon low flying down from the north followed by another onshore trough/ECL. The coast is definitely in for it if this comes off, and the model has been spot on so far (along with GFS).

Never thought January conditions would be suitable for quite a scenario given that the upper temps are usually very warm at this time of year, but how wrong I was!

This will be an incredible event if it comes off indeed.
Moderate rain falling here atm, would love some sparkage. This could be the start of something big.

Shades of February 1954's rain event..a steadily-moving monsoon trough penetrating well south with Equatorial Maritime air colliding with Tropical Pacific. This is increasing the moisture potential for the upper trough to feed on and dump some incredible totals on the NSW north coast and ranges.

Keep an eye on Springbrook's rain too (just on the border).

Severe Weather Warning
for flash flooding
for people in the Northern Tablelands, Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast forecast districts
Issued at 4:07 pm EDT on Tuesday 24 January 2012.

Weather Situation
A slow-moving high above the Tasman Sea is directing moist easterly winds onto the New South Wales coast, while an upper-lever trough remains over the state's north. The high is expected to lose influence late Wednesday or Thursday as it moves across New Zealand and a cold front crosses the Tasman Sea, however it will be quickly replaced by another high from the Bight, which is expected to restore the onshore airstream during Friday.

Periods of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, are forecast for the Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, and eastern parts of the Northern Tablelands forecast districts tonight and Wednesday. There is also the risk of thunderstorms in these areas.

In six hours to 4pm today the heaviest falls occurred in the Tweed Valley area, with 62mm of rain recorded at Coutchy Creek, 49mm at Boat Harbour, and 46mm at Uki.


A moderate flood warning has been issued for the Bellinger River, and a minor flood warning has been issued for the Orara and Tweed Rivers. A Flood Watch is also current for the Richmond, Nambucca, Wilsons, Macleay and Hastings river valleys.


For latest flood warning information, refer to www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
If you are trapped by flash flooding, seek refuge in the highest available place and ring 000 if you need rescue.
For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EDT Tuesday.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology


Just thought I'd share this warning from BOM, this could become very, very serious. I sure do hope there'll be no lives lost from this storm

I'm wondering how far south this rain could come? I was planning on heading to the coast this "long" weekend but the Ulladulla/Nowra forecast changed that, rain/showers every day. The inland forecast though is more along the lines of 'possible showers' which I read as more storm-type activity.

But looking at the sat pic yesterday showed a very strong adn sustained push by major cloud from the N/NE, vectoring down into NSW and today's radar view reinforces that. Amazing visuals.

I figure it's going to push down into SE NSW.

GFS is just outrageous this morning.. 100-150mm widespread across 80% of the state followed by another 100mm+ widespread in the extended outlook! This would make last years flood a drop in a bucket.

EC is even crazier, the whole east coast will be praying that doesn't come off.. monsoonal low interacting with a deep NE'er, that would happen very rarely.

The models have been going off like a frog in a sock at just about anything in recent years, and often seem to over-estimate what is going to happen. That's been the case around this area, any way. But the confluence of these two present factors is something we can get our teeth into. dunno about the 100mm over 80% of NSW, I don't reckon 80% of NSW has ever had 100mm!

Some decent rain would be welcome in the southern part of NSW, that I do know. I imagine those in the damp NE would like it to head south, too.

Hmmmm hardly rained here on the coast (Malabar) over cooked totals again.....and why the hell is there a 'thunderstorm' icon on the weatherzone forecast, there isnt a remote chance of a thunderstorm, plain LAZY forecasting if u ask me!

There is some thunder at the leading edge of that cloud as its spreading south.
Certainly quite widespread rain around here, it has really set in here since about 7am this morning, quite light but has not let up even for a minute all day, up to 12mm now.

Unfortunately mate, they can't give an individual forecast for every suburb of Sydney. It's been bucketing down here now for several hours, with plenty more on the way.
You'll get your rain. Just be patient.

Homer

Torrential bursts of rain at Berrilee (where i work) too Homer between 12pm and 2pm, one burst led to quite a big landslide knocking out the side wall of one of our large storage sheds, which unfortunately means i dont get australia day off! 41mm at home (quakers hill), since 9pm last nite, and i think thatll increase quite nicely in the next few hours

Do you work at that Timber place there?

I've had 38 mm's in the gauge since last night when it started.
radar showing more heavy stuff on the way. Only 21.2 deg's here, but very, very muggy.

Homer

Pretty close to it, run a farm on 5 acres 500mtrs down the side road :), cant wait to relax with a shiraz, forget about work and watch the cricket and tennis with some heavy rain on the roof!

Sounds nice. I couldn't think of any other buisness's up there.
Yep, cricket is very watchable today - even nicer while listening to the rain on the roof, wine in hand.

Homer

As and experienced storm chaser there are days when I would happily put the house up as a bet against no thunderstorms..................today is NOT one of them.

The chances are slim, but an offshore rumble is still a very slight chance.

Tell you one thing that is Lazy forecasting is predicting "a few showers" on the weekend for the CT's. Models have not budged from a Deluge for days now.

That's for you Peter, what about us here in Sydney. Same forecast of showers here as well.

Homer

Can anyone tell me if there is a chance of severe thunderstorms possibly occuring on Thursday and friday since i want to go storm chasing up around inland NSW, (Between Yass and Dubbo)?

What about a 70% chance of rain for Sydney for the rest of today?! it should be 99%, the only place not getting a drop is Malabar! pouring here now, tropical and torrential, up to 54mm since 9pm last night, ps badgerys creek had 26mm between 130 and 2pm,

I have had 9.4mm to 9am this morning and 24mm since then. Had torrential rain driving through Terry Hills earlier, everyone was driving at 60kph in a 90 zone as you could not see very far ahead and water everywhere.
It is good watching the cricket with a beer in hand, raining outside and the radar looking sensational and no work tomorrow, can’t ask for to much more.
Ps: You will get your turn danG01.
Cheers Martin.

Actually I am presently more certain of a deluge on the CT's than in Sydney. It will still rain a lot in Sydney but there is a chance it will be more just general rain than a deluge like on the CT's. Reason is that low tracking through the inland from Darwin making this more in inland system. However it will cross the coast on its way south and where that happens the coast will also be deluged. At this stage that low may cross slightly south of Sydney sparring Sydney of the worst rain.

Have a look at both EC and GFS, they are coming into line with each other now as we get to the 72 hours window. What is amazing is that the low will not really depart Darwin until tomorrow morning. Then it will carry with it all the tropical moisture to us over the next 3 days. Also a cyclone quite certain near Learmonth but that is for another thread.

I would be setting my sights further north and westwards. The potential for severe storms is limited - rain monsters perhaps. Condobolin may be a good starting point.

The other chance is that action may get to Victoria by the late weekend anyway! Models are a bit over the place with a low.

Watch carefully for placement of this low. No model is suggesting it yet, but if it stays inland enough and gets down into southern Australia enough it may start to bring up some drier air on the backside - this scenario would greater increase storm potential.

I managed to get a couple of shots from the cell moving south over the brindabellas - totally unexpected, but it was a case of right place at the right time. will post links later tonight.

here is my best one from last night: http://www.redbubble.com/people/peterhau/works/8386060-perfect?c=123318-weather

Hi All,
I love the forums and don't often post, however, the low pressure system heading for the South Coast NSW on Sunday looks pretty mean. The synoptic chart shows pressure at 988hpa by the time it reaches us down here. Does this put it in Cat 1 region?. I've trawled through the glossary and can't find any info on low pressure and wind speeds. My town was pretty messed up after the fathers day ECL two years ago (i just can't remember the pressures for that event). Just want to know what to expect from this event.
Cheers.

I have started a new thread here for any discussion of the NT monsoon low:

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1063985#Post1063985

Nice shot Peter, love the atmospherics.

Interesting about Sunday... that's the day Canberra gets its strongest forecast for rain, too, so the Bureau evidently expects the low to reach us.

Models really have tweaked course noticeably since yesterday keeping the inland trough further inland sparing this area of the weekend deluge. Still will be rain but just the usual here however looks pretty severe for northern inland of NSW, and SW Queensland. But on a positive note it looks better for Duanne in Wagga too as the rain tracks south through the inland. Also due to this twist means that rain will persist in the east for much of next week as well as the trough moves east again and stalls.

Rain has barely stopped falling here for 2 days now accounting for 1/2 my monthly total so far, very different to Bathurst that gains from storms. Interesting that I am surpassing even the BM in this setup.

there are some serious cells tracking across Canberra right now. I am off to find a decent view. Ant, you will probably see some activity soon.

Anyone know what the chances of thunderstorms are for Sydney and the Blue Mountains between tomorrow and next Friday? Would be totally awesome if I can catch some lightning in addition to the forecasted rain over the next week!

Had a brief heavy shower through here, more scattered showers moving in off the coast.

Absolutley pouring here torrential rain huge thunder and lightning scary stuff

Just finished the mowing, nice and humid out here atm, we largely missed out on the rain these past few days compared to other places.
39.3mm for the event so far.

Anyone chasing out Nyngan - Cobar today? I've got to head the wrong way today up into muddy Qld.
Managed to get a few pics from a distant, of a SC that popped out of a mess south of Coonamble, (& headed SW) late yesterday avo.

That huge rain blob up in the NE corner again looks to be moving south fast,not like the first area of heavy rain up there that took it's time.about 40 MMS here so far out of the rain that has moved this far south so far.

It looked really promising here yesterday, as PeterH said. Spent most of it outside, digging holes and concreting in uprights for my new pergola. The clouds in all directions were dark, lowering, small dumps of rain happening everywhere... we got a flurry of big cold drops late arvo, and that was it.

Today the easterly has pushed in soem more low, damp thick cloud (it was sunny this morning), and I can see the eastern ranges are blotted out, again, with presumably rain or sea mist or something.

I'm a bit disappointed to see the deluge being downgraded here, the "rain" is Monday now, never a good sign. However, although I'm not a big believer in the ant activity thing, yesterday while working I noticed an increase throughout the day in ants, streaming up anything that would get them higher off the ground. Up the rock walls, the poles being concreted in, even the car. This morning I also notice the kitchen has lines of them, marching along.

It would be very good if the ants were onto something.

I have a bit of faith in ants - especially when nests suddenly sprout much taller walls etc. They are certainly tower building around my house - very obvious.

Honestly with your handle you should be a dedicated follower of our multi legged friends.

Yeah but, they've lied/been wrong so often in teh past! I figure they're reacting to some combo of air pressure, wind, moisture etc, and maybe the changing weather patterns have tricked them. But it was really marked, through the day it was like someone had held up a signal or something, they came out of nowhere and they were heading UP. The drystone wall (aobut 3 feet high) around a garden was particularly popular, which might be significant!

I think they notice the overall things as you pointed out, when a given combination of humidity etc occurs they do some pre emptive work and of course sometimes a storm might be just over there instead of here or sometimes it really feels even to us like it must rain but it doesn't. Sudden activity like you've seen & I'm seeing though always gets my attention.

It FEELS like we could have a storm here, doesn't really look it yet but it feels right.

I do not think the ants know anything. If they have been flooded now they will move higher.

As for this rain system, its certainly an interesting one, the dates of this thread should be extended by at least another week since we are on the 27th now and the event is only about to begin.

You can now track the big tropical cloud associated with that original low that is about to start tracking south from the Gulf country. First in line will be Charleville, but it will not stop there and keep heading south after which another cloud tailing this one will stall over eastern and northern NSW.

Still a pretty good chance to get flooding rains around here but maybe not until Tue/Wed next week. This could involve some storms most likely around Mon/Tue I would expect before the big rain starts.
One place that is getting more and more certain to flood is Tamworth at some point latter next week. The ground will be well and truly primed and wet before the real deluge begins. This time with Chaffy dam near full it could be serious.

Ants are stupid like that, hey wait a minute... Anyway imo Ant your a decent chance for some good rain, from an ACCESSG point of view anyway.

Another crazy run of GFS 00z... The area of 200mm+ falls from NW QLD right through NSW is easily TWICE the size of the state of VIC!! Never seen a run like this before for the east coast. Widespread inland sea if it comes off from inland QLD right across the E half of NSW, which looks fairly likely now

Latest forecast calls for areas of "rain" for Sydney on Monday, and just scattered "showers" for Canberra. Strange. I thought this was going to be a more inland event, particularly going by this...



Homer

My first post here!

Been watchin this event with interest cause i hav cricket on saturday lol
Any chances of the sun peeking out tomm in the Sydney basin?I noticed the rainfall amounts is almost down to nil.

How come there is no rain recorded for Cobar today ? does any body know is the BOM broken ?

Geez Homer - that is a scary image with those sorts of numbers.

Yes a lot of rain around, but seems to be still hard to predict exactly where the biggest falls will be much more than a couple of days ahead.
Models seem to be finally consolidating at least for the weekend rain for the CT's. We should get pretty solid continuous wind and rain on Sunday night overnight as that cold front sucks in the moisture from the north. Could easily be 30-40mm overnight for much of the CT's.

230mm so far this month PD - so hope you get our share too. Fully saturated round these parts. More walking today rather than riding - missing the mountain bike.

we have had close to 600mm since the start on November 2011 - no bushfires but it would be nice to spend a few balmy evening outside on the deck,

Gee, 230mms is a nice effort!!! just 52mms here for the month, with 17mms falling in the last week or so. Unfortunately we are too far northeast to enjoy some nice sunshine and warm temperatures, but too far south to experience any worthwhile rainfall. Its just gloomy weather with the occasional light shower here and there... I believe our turn for a drenching is well over due, with the last significant rain event occuring a few years ago now. Really hoping for an East Coast Low or two this Autumn, I like ECL's almost as much as a good thunderstorm, as long as i'm in the right spot for them... That rainfall map looks nice, but I think the majority of that was forecasted around the 144hour mark.

Gloomy DRY weather here, too. They reckon it'll get to 29c today, not with that thick layer of cloud it won't. Seems to have come in with the easterly overnight, and we did get a splatter of misty drizzle overnight, briefly.

What!, 230mm, amazing, only 65mm here so far, still need another 25mm just to reach the average.



Agreed about missing those balmy evenings. This summer is like aircon on overdrive, more like living in a fridge, door will never open.



What I would not give for 29 right now, I am struggling to get over 18 even inside the house now. Its just gloomy and cold here. It has not even reached 20 outside for a week now.

Just mild and very steamy here. But looking like nothing on the way yet. Don't want to finish Jan with zero rainfall.
Duane.

Duanne, this rain between 11pm Sunday night and 5am Monday, only +48h model run.
Very very likely Wagga will get at least an inch overnight Sunday night. Nearly impossible not to get some good rain.

Geez I hope you're right PD! The back lawn is look pretty ordinary even though I am putting water on it. Just a good thing I got the irrigation to the fruit trees in time!

Ah, good to see the date for this topic was extended. I was wondering why no one had started a thread on the coming deluge for Northern NSW but Also a large amount of rain for the rest of the State. Even my Area "Finley" 22Km north of the Vic / NSW Border about in the center of the state Horizontally. Some models like CMC and GFS are suggesting up to 75mm over a 5 day period and we live in one of those4 areas that as rain approaches it decays and as it leaves it re-develops. like there's a shadow over us that stops rain. So in reality we will only get about half of what is forecast usually, and even that is a lot of rain for us. In out town we reply on irrigation for farming. Very little rain falls here.

So yeah it looks like Northern NSW over the Next 180 Hours is going to get some very serious Rain, including Sydney. I hope you all Keep Safe and I hope the rain you get doesn't do too much harm. In fact I am curios as to why I didn't see any warning on this afternoon's ABC News 24 about the coming Rain for Norther NSW.

Hope you get enough rain Bigwilly, you still look like in a good place for tomorrow night.

Looking at the latest models the heaviest rain for Northern and NE NSW will not be until Wednesday now which current models show as a deluge. Yet BOM are still not willing to take the risk and predict rain.

I must admit it has been hard to predict these tropical systems more than a couple of days out, originally 4 days ago I thought tonight would be the beginning of a deluge here. However models changed course and now just have moderate rain but not deluge for Sunday night instead. Bom now more than less agree with that having rain developing in the evening and then easing Monday morning.

Maybe if models still hold on Monday they will start to predict heavy rain for Wednesday then. Rain should be very heavy here also, but have to wait until Monday too to know for sure I guess.

well, we got the high temps, and tonight is gradually cooling, but it it pretty slow. There were some large clouds building up in the north, but they fizzled out. Sky is clear tonight, I am hoping that tomorrow is a bit cooler, but the forecast looks to more of the same as today.

I was hoping for some rain - there was a hint of it this morning, but the cloud burned off and the heat amped up.

That map looks a bit more hopeful for the ACT region. I have a bag of grass waiting, the minute rain is due, it'll get sown on the dead/bare patches. I was digging around in the lawn and garden today, they both get irrigated, and it wasn't good, dry and dusty.

the cloud burnt off very fast around midday, and it got hot and humid. But very clear sky. .

Wow Ant, warm and sunny, I wonder what that yellow thing in the sky even looks like.
Cannot believe models have pushed the heavier rain even further west for tonight, hard to say what will happen. That blob seems to be tracking south to us atm, but who knows.
Models still keeping heavy rain for Wednesday around here, but not that much for the ACT. Would be bad luck if tonight missed to the west and Wednesday missed to the NE.

Yes, I'm watching our rain forecast fizzle every run. As usual. It's been very dry here for teh last few seasons, complete opposite to northern NSW. They are still talking about showers late tonight and tomorrow, but hard to believe, another clear sunny day here, with a lovely fresh easterly.

The forecast has us with clouds and possible showers for the whole week, and that would be good too, provided the showers happened.

Ant you could be a good chance, the latest ACCESSG model has a very good chunk of rain in the ACT area, could be up to 50mm.

Sunny here as well with hardly a cloud in sight. The temp is 24.2c so certainly a warm start to the day compared to what we've been getting. Storms appear extremely unlikely over the next week, and it feels like the season is cactus. Maybe we'll have our last hurrah in late February perhaps, but at this stage its looking like a showery February instead of a stormy one. As for the rain on Sunday night/Monday morning, it appears i'll miss out on that as well, with areas west of Canberra picking up the most of it. The shear should funnel some of it to the far south coast as well.As for me, very light rain and 3.6mms the predicted total...

I like the sat pic, the way the cloud is organising and whirling around down towards central NSW. Fingers crossed. We need rain. So do the guys west of us, so happy for them to get heaps as long as we get some!

Bit annoyed about the forecast for the coast over this weekend, I bailed on 4 days south of Jervis Bay cos the forecast was for wet/gloomy weather. Looks like it wasn't that bad. Bah!

Its really overcast here in the basin though, i just wish the sun would come out lol


The latest run shows heavy rainfall in Sydney towards the latter half of the week so is it a different system thats causing that?

A clear hot day here. Looks like we will get get over our max of 32. Currently 31.2.
Duane.

They upgraded yesterday's max to 30+, I was expecting that, it felt hotter than 29. We have quite a gusty little easterly that's making the 27.5 bearable when working (I'm having a break).

radar shows the good stuff is hitting western NSW, that's always good to see, the band around Broken Hill and Griffith. I'm watching that, the way the satellite shows the cloud curving around towards us from the west. Wagga should get some too! It's right in the path.

Still heating up here. 34.3 at my place. Maybe enough heating when the rain comes for a storm or two to develop?
Duane.

Already some high rainfall accumulations in western and northern NSW, including 97.4mm at the Broken Hill Airport AWS station, and probably 100mm+ at the Broken Hill (Patton Street) station.

Looks good for our dry parched area of the woods, would imagine the flood watch is mostly for above the dams though (Burrinjuck is at 78% and Blowering is at 81%)

Having said that if all creeks below the dams reach their highest ever recorded level, it would be a major flood level at Gundagai, so I guess some quick heavy rain below the dams could lead to minor flooding...........

YAWN for this system for Sydney... seriously all the Noah's Ark hysteria and as always with each run closer to D day its downgraded.... truly why do i ever get excited at an event like this !! Melbourne has had more interesting weather with regards to storms this year....even now storms to the north , south and west of this dumb state! If your a lover of mizzle this place is the capital of the world!!!

Amazing about the rain in Broken Hill, that is the rain that the models were forecasting for the CT's only 5 days ago. In that time the track of the rain from the north changed by over a 1000 of km. Already its clear now that the main rain is going to miss the SW slopes, sorry Duane and others for keeping hopes up. Even BOM's own forecast for the CT's that I agreed with only yesterday is now completely wrong. Oh well this is a lesson learnt about trying to forecast tropical weather systems, its dammed hard. Part of the problem is there there is no clear circulation pattern like in the mid latitudes so more randomness is involved.

Who knows what we get for Wednesday, but some rain for the NE of NSW and a shower or two here is about all I will say about that atm.

Looks like BOM's forecast of "shower or two" (or three) is a good middle road to take in these situations.

Next 12 hours is still saying heavy rain until 6am. Not sure where it will come from though. January has been full of disappointments. Lost track of how many times we were promised rain only to get not a single drop. So looks like January rain total will remain on 0.
Duane.

Duane, I know this is probably hard to believe atm, but tomorrow afternoon maybe your best shot for a drop. That approaching cold front may just trigger something for you in the way of good storms. Models suggest that and at least you have a cold front on your side rather than just these wobbly tropical clouds. Does not look massive like before but maybe more reliable.

Can you lead me to the links that confirm those rainfall accumulations.
I can only find these for today.....

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN10177.txt

http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/nsw/outerwest.shtml

BTW, very rare for BOM to be going for 25-50 mm's
for the Canberra region. Hope it comes off, but doesn't ruin any driveways.


http://www.bom.gov.au/act/forecasts/canberra.shtml

Homer

Homer, just take a look here...
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW2020.latest.shtml
or here..
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN60801/IDN60801.94691.shtml
You have about 35+55+ (16 today) = 106mm for the weekend.
(That was meant to be our rain 5 days ago, not sure how to get to that other station)

Cannot see that Canberra forecast being right, just like the one for Orange that is wrong.

Thanks Peter, as accumulations go, that stacks up. But Friday's rain wasn't really caused by this low, which was still sitting over Arnham Land. It was the previous trough system sending a band of rain and storms west through the area, so it's more a result of the previous system rather than the current one that has produced these hundred mm's falls. The current low only headed down through QLD yesterday as we all saw.
Anyway, it's just semantics, and it's great to see the west getting a good total over several days.

Homer

Easterly all day.. can't have a westerly system with an easterly. So this arvo finally it turned to the NW. Awesome. Saw a mass of grey low cloud gathering to the NW, great. And then it all slid south and the easterly is back! There's stars out too.

However, the radar shows it still incoming at this stage, it hasn't disintigrated, yet. The easterly is a bit of a surprise. I don't think we'll get anything tonight, despite the forecast saying 90% chance of precip.

I have to drop the car off for its service tomorrow and have a 1km walk back into civic to get the bus to work, so it'll be about then that we get a deluge, mark my words. I'll take rain at any price.

Here we go! It has certainly moved in fast, and the easterly still blowing. Nice to hear that sound on the roof.

I've been so fixated on what's been happening up in SE QLD I totally forgot about the weather here. Needless to say this rhythmic thrumming of the moderate rain fall was a nice surprise and proving rather relaxing after watching that amazing Australian open final. I hope whatever's hitting us, continues to give us a nice drink, we could use it.

Well BOM finally came good with the forecast for this "event", pleased to see 19.4mm in the gauge when I woke up this morning so hopefully we will get somewhere in the 25-50mm that they forecast.
Should top up the rainwater tanks nicely.
What's your total Ant?

Cheers Teddy

A very welcome 57mm odd has fallen at Wagga (and I'd imagine we'd be in that ball park here in Junee - maybe a bit less, around the 35-40mm mark?).

Great to see the first rain of 2012. Opened it in style!

Well, I will be damned, well done Wagga and Junee. Canberra only got the rain by the skin of their teeth, Goulburn only 2mm.
Feel a bit cheated on the CT's with also only a few mm.

Just emptied the gauge to find 64.5mm!! Amazing stuff.
From basically nothing, to way past the monthly average! It's funny how things turn out.

I didn't go to sleep after watching the tennis final which finished at 1:30. My whole night has basically been - front door, look at rain .. computer, look at radar. LOL

So far we've had a very welcome 28mm.Looks like we might get another 10 t0 30mm as the front gets closer,probably in the form of storms,here's hoping anyway.

I had about 20mm in the gauge this morning, although it's a bit sheilded as it's in the garden (moved it out this morning). There were some incredibly heavy falls during the night/early hours, deafening on the roof. Driveway is headed out onto the road again but the neighbour's was horrible, mud and rocks all over the road! I've been putting rocks at the base of mine which seems to have helped trap some of the silt and mud.

Steady light rain has been falling all morning but it's really humid as well. The radar isn't really showing it, there's sheets of it blowing across with the rather strong westerly. I'm pretty damp after my walk into Civic.

I know the feeling!

And for most of the night, the easterly was blowing while the rain came in from the west, which was nice. At some point this morning, after dawn, it seemed to change and the westerly blustered in.

Essential Energy as well as others are using helicopters to get power back on to remote areas, Bourke quite bad with flooded areas near Goodooga.

wind is up, gusts are pretty strong but the rain has been reduced to a fine spray mist. very annoying, I hope it clears prior to the forecast thunderstorm, or it is not going to be much fun at all...

Misty Drizzle in Bathurst o/n and so far today - enough to make everything wet but hardly enough to measure. Still very very muggy - has to be pretty much 100% humidity.

Glad Wagga and surrounds got a good drop. We could do with some soaking precip around here too, current stuff will have virtually no impact.

Thanks Ant, Tuggers got its usual wetter than the airport 33.2mm here so far today very humid outside so I guess we will get more this arvo especially if the sun comes out and heats things up again! I too noticed the radar was not showing much but a lot of heavy drizzle. Very windy here in Woden as well.
We are way past our monthly average for Jan too.
Cheers Teddy

ACCESS-R seems to be hinting at an ECL developing on early Wednesday and persisting through the day, might be an interesting one to watch.

here in gilmore we are getting drizzle, sun, drizzle, sun... very muggy, and the wind has increased. I am watching the cell near cobar, it looks to be tracking this way, it may come or not, but I will be interested if it does.

Nice to hear that Wagga got 50mm+ overnight, that's a case of Mother Nature "filling in the gaps". Mizzle in Bathurst yet hot and sunny on the coast, pretty much a reversal of what's happened this summer so far.

As expected the far south coast also picked uo some moderate rain. Unfortunately the same can't be said for here. It sprinkled for 2minutes and that was it. 0.0mms in the gauge,and it seems my forecast of 3.6mms was way too optimistic. Nevermind, on the plus side we managed 33c today with 20-23c dewpoints. Its nice since the bureau only predicted 30c. Atlast abit of warmth, though I wouldn't call it a hot day. Clouding over now, and we could see a brief shower later.

It's really noticeable how you guys in Tuggy get more rain than the airport! And isn't it humid outside, yuck, I dressed for a coolish rainy day. Ha. 50mm for Wagga, wow. I just hope it didn't do too much damage to the dry ground.

Interesting line up of storms to the west on the radar, surprised there's no activity from them, yet. Reckon something might happen, it's so humid, although that wind won't help. Plenty of interesting clouds along the western horizon although no sharply defined CU, more loose messy tumbled stuff.

I'll be walking from Civic to Braddon about 4.30pm, so set your watches for an epic cloudburst and tennis-ball hail about then.

Skip the hail, lets hope you safely hit Braddon without that cloudburst.

Very windy, humid (75% humidity) & just very light showers this arvo but nothing of substance in the rain gauge. If you want to witness a rain shadow go to Gunghalin, they always seem to miss out..

Teddy

[quote=ant]It's really noticeable how you guys in Tuggy get more rain than the airport! And isn't it humid outside, yuck, I dressed for a coolish rainy day. Ha. 50mm for Wagga, wow. I just hope it didn't do too much damage to the dry ground.

I think the only damage will be me mowing the lawn in a couple of days time.
Was great to have some rain though. Sounded great on the roof last night. A line coming in from the west looks pretty good.

Duane.

black clouds are rolling in, the light stuff got blown away by the wind - may be a chance of storms tonight, in any case is a good reason to go up to Mt Ainslie and watch the patches of sun set...

Bathurst copping a storm in town now.. Cannot see Bathurst,

[img:left][/img]

Wow, a storm not splitting around Bathurst, a rare sight indeed

I did not see that coming DaveC thanks for mentioning. Still most likely will miss me up here. Believe it or not my MTD rain is still below normal and no guarantee that normal rain will be reached. Must be a few very dry spots near Bathurst that have missed storms and missed the regular light showers I get up here.



Not quite Brad, Bathurst still reached 29, you are right Sydney should have easily reached 35 if not for too much cloud.

Thanks Peter.. its all gone now, but check out radar of Coonabarabran, they about to cop it!

http://s335.photobucket.com/albums/m443/bathurstscan/Storms%20Bathurst%20Jan%2030/ A few other photos I took as storm was approaching.

Yes, That is a whopper hitting Coonabarabran now, they so often seem to get interesting rain events, never ceases to amaze me how wet that place can be, must be the Warrumbungles helping.

Wow guys I just checked the radar that is a monster! will be some decent squalls on that front of that..

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR693.loop.shtml#skip

Yeah certainly a nice looking squall line up there, almost no lightning in it however! possibly due to the very warm mid and upper level temps.

How much rain can we expect in Sydney over the next few days?

Just had a storm go through. A few rumbles, flashes and a couple of gusts. But had some of the heaviest rain I have seen in a long time. Got a massive 20mm in 20 minutes. Now have a few rays coming through with a rainbow.
Duane.

Same here Duane,

Was very heavy at one time there. Had 88.3mm since midnight last night!!!

Mike.

We copped the northern edge of that storm here.

It poured for a good 10 minutes, with 11mm falling in that time, bringing the total since midnight to 76mm!! A few rumbles here and there too.

Looks like tamworth lined up for the same storm which hit Coona earlier! Looks nice..

The models will tell you.
I can't get the current GFS up to show you, but surely this will give you an indication....

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/synoptic.jsp?d=1

Homer

Amazing, from no rain to more rain than here in the whole month. My MTD total still sits at about 80% normal.

Yeah that is amazing!! We still sit on a woeful 51mms for the month, and I'm expecting maybe 1-5mms accumulative total for the upcoming week. Im dieing for a serious rain event!!!

I think we must have got the very bottom of that little storm that whizzed over Canberra a short while ago, it came zooming in, blotted out Defence HQ JOC and poured for about 20 seconds, and then it whizzed off. Very useful, I put around quite a bit of grass seed on the damp ground this evening.

sad to see all the "possible showers" for each day this week has been downgraded.

A very warm and humid day closed off with a dissapointingly average sunset. I was expecting an excellent sunset since there was a clear slot on the horizon, thick mid/ high level cloud above that and bits of mammatus mixed in as well. Anyway I still got a few shots... This was Gerringong a few hours ago. The NEer was still going,and compared to Nowra it felt rather cool. As you can see plenty of swell about, but low period NE windswell junk.

Wowee, that shot was definitely worth sharing.

MK & all, As we were travelling back from Sydney i thought the sunset might be a spectacular one so got the gf to stop at the Southern Gateway Centre @ Bulli Tops. ten squillion flying ant thingy's were there to annoy us, but i thought what was coming would be worth it... Well, it was less then expected, but still pretty good IMO.

here is a pic.



couple more: http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10150648621917494.454178.609957493&type=1&l=241b324ad1

nice shots guys!!!!!!

I ducked down to Skiway park, Oak Flats and it wasn't bad, not the best I've ever shot but still nice enough!

Coonamble this morning have had 98 mm rain , most of this fell after 330am this morning! Talking to energy staff advised heaviest rain they had seen.

Great sunsets guys, was good one here also.
Thanks for mentioning the Coonamble rain DaveC, amazing, wonder if Coonabarabran is next again.
I see you must have had another 9mm overnight only 4mm up here. I think that both Bathurst and Orange will beat my monthly rain this time.

And back to clear blue sky, as any mention of rain fizzles out of the forecasts. There's a bit mentioned for later in the week, watch that disappear. I'm glad I didn't fling around too much grass seed. I guess the ants will enjoy collecting it.

Wind has swung around to southerly quadrants in Bathurst - we've been just inside the edge of the cloud band all day. I can see the edge not far to my SW and that's pretty much how it's been all day. It's kept the temp so far to below 20 or now just over. Orange Airport only about 17.6. Forecast was about 26 but unless cloud clears we prob wont get there or if we do it wont be for long.

will be interesting to which model is correct for tomorrow and thursdays rainfall. GFS is going for a nice 100mm+ for the two days. The other models dont look as good, but im hopefull that we will get a decent fall with the wind comming out of the SE.

Is there going to be a new thread for tomorrow and coming days, or extending this thread?

Should be a new thread, this is a new cold pool, cool change and new rain system.
Only trouble is I doubt we will see any rain at all around here so.

Yuck. It's cold! And this blusterly SE can nick off. We won't get anything useful out of this.

Gorgeous sunset pics there fellas!

I got to enjoy that same sunset while out on the Manly Ferry with my girlfriend on Monday evening... unfortunately, the best of it (its early stages with mid-level and high-level cloud) was over well before we reached Circular Quay would've been amazing with the Sydney City Skyline, Opera House and Harbour Bridge in the foreground

definitely a cold night, even the sunset in Canberra struggled to be seen:

That one says it all, gloomy low coastal cloud making it cold, dark and miserable. But dry! And tomorrow's set to be even colder. Imagine me grumbling about cold weather.

latest radar shows Canberra parting the rain around it. great. it is like it is a mountain, the way the rain is streaming past.

couple of pics from the storms on the 26th of Jan out near Coonamble
(contrasted)




Stitched a bit of image sequence timelapse, which is in this storm/timelapse compilation from January -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1c40DYAGV4

unfortunately I made the mistake of underestimating the rainy mess to my north & left it too late to get close. The above pictures were shot from about 50km away. I realised I had made a mistake when I saw some fast movement in the cloudbase around 15 min prior to the above shots.

PD