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#1061981 - 24/01/2012 16:42 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: zuldjan]
richo p Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/07/2008
Posts: 905
Loc: Brisbane, Albany Creek
Were starting to see those 700mb winds swing from the NNE to the NE..hence why the rain is starting to head more onshore now. Tonight could see some huge totals pushing inland! This is getting more and more concerning..we don't need heavy rain falling over the catchments. It can stay on the coastal fringe for all i'm concerned!

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#1061982 - 24/01/2012 16:43 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: zuldjan]
Krissyistormy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/01/2011
Posts: 371
Loc: NSW South Coast
Originally Posted By: zuldjan
Originally Posted By: Krissyistormy
Now I know some of you got a wee bit confused when I pointed out the activity on the Emerald radar, but I would like to focus there again & longreach. I've been watching them all day, this morning there were a few tiny cells but it seems the activity has picked up and is pushing these intense cells towards us. I don't think they will dissipate as they are strengthing the futher down they move.


Whats your feeling as to an ETA for arrival in Brisbane?


At this stage I would think about 6 hours, the same approximate time frame as yesterday but they are merging with other cells already present which makes it a bit harder to pin point and now with the activity exploding on the warrego radar it's just mass after mass. Absolutely mind blowing!
_________________________
Once you familiarise yourself with the chains of bondage you prepare your own limbs to wear them. Abraham Lincoln

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#1061983 - 24/01/2012 16:44 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: richo p]
Mattqldstorms Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/09/2010
Posts: 2193
Loc: Ipswich- Yamanto Queensland
Originally Posted By: richo p
Were starting to see those 700mb winds swing from the NNE to the NE..hence why the rain is starting to head more onshore now. Tonight could see some huge totals pushing inland! This is getting more and more concerning..we don't need heavy rain falling over the catchments. It can stay on the coastal fringe for all i'm concerned!

Thanks for the information there! grin

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#1061984 - 24/01/2012 16:44 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: richo p]
Corretto Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/03/2006
Posts: 488
Loc: Everton Park, Nth Brisbane
Just home from work. 185 mm since midnight. Things are a little soggy .....
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#1061985 - 24/01/2012 16:45 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Mattqldstorms]
Scottie A Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 2050
Loc: Spring Mountain, Greenbank
Im counting down the hours until 00Z EC comes out.... I don't think GFS has this one pegged to be honest.
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#1061986 - 24/01/2012 16:46 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Scottie A]
peregrine Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/01/2012
Posts: 22
Loc: Bli Bli, Sunshine Coast
That is one crazy radar...

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#1061987 - 24/01/2012 16:47 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Colin Maitland]
Krissyistormy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/01/2011
Posts: 371
Loc: NSW South Coast
Originally Posted By: coltan
Originally Posted By: Krissyistormy
Now I know some of you got a wee bit confused when I pointed out the activity on the Emerald radar, but I would like to focus there again & longreach. I've been watching them all day, this morning there were a few tiny cells but it seems the activity has picked up and is pushing these intense cells towards us. I don't think they will dissipate as they are strengthing the futher down they move.


If you have a look at the GFS stormcast and look at the shear at SFC or 925mb and 500mb you will see why that is happening.
It is all getting dragged into this active system we are experiencing.


It's phenomenal! Best described as one huge suck zone! Quite daunting actually, I've never seen this irratic weather behaviour before, one popping up after the other, this is alot bigger than I think anyone anticipated.
_________________________
Once you familiarise yourself with the chains of bondage you prepare your own limbs to wear them. Abraham Lincoln

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#1061988 - 24/01/2012 16:47 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Scottie A]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
What's your thoughts scottie, could you explain your doubtfulness please?
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I hate winter

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#1061991 - 24/01/2012 16:50 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Krissyistormy]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2676
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Originally Posted By: Krissyistormy
Originally Posted By: zuldjan
Originally Posted By: Krissyistormy
Now I know some of you got a wee bit confused when I pointed out the activity on the Emerald radar, but I would like to focus there again & longreach. I've been watching them all day, this morning there were a few tiny cells but it seems the activity has picked up and is pushing these intense cells towards us. I don't think they will dissipate as they are strengthing the futher down they move.


Whats your feeling as to an ETA for arrival in Brisbane?


At this stage I would think about 6 hours, the same approximate time frame as yesterday but they are merging with other cells already present which makes it a bit harder to pin point and now with the activity exploding on the warrego radar it's just mass after mass. Absolutely mind blowing!


The radar is just jammed packed with a back log of rain. It is a little bit of a concern right now.

Time for common sense on the part of people, I wonder how many rescues will take place with the rising water and people being nonchalant.

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#1061992 - 24/01/2012 16:50 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Scottie A]
Unauk Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/01/2011
Posts: 10
Loc: Mount Gravatt
A total newbie here, but does it look like that the slow moving storm just about to slam into Caboolture will continue on a course that puts it directly over the Wivenhoe catchment?
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#1061993 - 24/01/2012 16:51 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: james1977]
Scottie A Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 2050
Loc: Spring Mountain, Greenbank
Originally Posted By: james1977
What's your thoughts scottie, could you explain your doubtfulness please?


Actually hmmm having another look GFS is onto somethings but not others really tough to call.... I got a few things to do atm so ill check back a bit later and explain whats going on if someone else hasnt beat me to it. Put Simply GFS has this system turning into one great big MCS later tonight into tomorrow morning which you can see early signs of this starting to happen, lots of thunderstorms out west (warrego) etc. Not much time now back later.


Edited by Scottie A (24/01/2012 16:54)
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#1061996 - 24/01/2012 16:52 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Colin Maitland]
paul117 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2011
Posts: 460
Loc: Loganlea
Originally Posted By: coltan
Originally Posted By: paul117
does anyone know the how many mm of rain has fallen in the logan central, kingston area over the past 24 hours? im curious but unsure how to find out my self.


48mm so far

Here is the links to use

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/rain_river.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ60359.html

and http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/qld_metro.shtml


thanks for the info guys smile 48mm doesnt seem like much lol feels like alot more poke

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#1061997 - 24/01/2012 16:53 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Chris Stumer]
RubberduckyAU Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/01/2010
Posts: 59
Loc: Toowoomba Qld
Rothwell footy club grounds are well under water. Don't know how to post piks sorry.

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#1062000 - 24/01/2012 16:55 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: RubberduckyAU]
Smurfberry Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 30/08/2011
Posts: 37
Loc: Braken Ridge
Coltan, Mate whats ur stats at the mo?
Curious how much rains fallen since i left for work this morn.

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#1062001 - 24/01/2012 16:55 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Colin Maitland]
Occo. Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/08/2011
Posts: 204
Loc: Upper Coomera
Hey folks. Currently at Marlborough- 100k nth rocky. Light to moderate rain non stop from Mackay to here. All creeks and rivers flowing. Large puddles on side of highway everywhere.
I noticed someone mention the monsoon trough and how far it may come south?? Well if ( and that's an if- also not sure what the models are saying) but if it dips below brissy to - say coffs harbour- it will dump huge amounts of rain over us as it passes.
But remember once it comes south so far- it will have to go back to where it came from- so therefore another huge dump!
It was the retreating monsoon trough that flooded Mackay back in 2008.

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#1062003 - 24/01/2012 16:56 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Scottie A]
Stormy1 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/10/2005
Posts: 1872
Originally Posted By: Scottie A
Originally Posted By: james1977
What's your thoughts scottie, could you explain your doubtfulness please?


Actually hmmm having another look GFS is onto somethings but not others really tough to call.... I got a few things to do atm so ill check back a bit later and explain whats going on if someone else hasnt beat me to it. Put Simply GFS has this system turning into one great big MCS later tonight into tomorrow morning which you can see early signs of this starting to happen, lots of thunderstorms out west (warrego) etc. Not much time now back later.


Yep and thats exactly what will happen tonight/tomorrow the way I see it.....

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#1062006 - 24/01/2012 16:57 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Stormy1]
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
85mm to 9 am and 75mm since

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#1062008 - 24/01/2012 16:58 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Stormy1]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4548
Loc: Brisbane
For all the heavy rain that has fallen today, a heck of a lot of it has fallen over the ocean. Something that GFS has shown in a number of earlier runs.

If the rainfall doesn't shift more onshore in the next day or we may actually get to the end of this event with a reasonably minimal impact after all.

In SE QLD there is not yet a single major river system in moderate flood.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1062009 - 24/01/2012 16:59 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Locke]
Coxy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1053
Loc: Jindalee, QLD
Originally Posted By: Locke
For all the heavy rain that has fallen today, a heck of a lot of it has fallen over the ocean. Something that GFS has shown in a number of earlier runs.

If the rainfall doesn't shift more onshore in the next day or we may actually get to the end of this event with a reasonably minimal impact after all.

In SE QLD there is not yet a single major river system in moderate flood.


Let's hope that remains the case!

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#1062010 - 24/01/2012 16:59 Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms & rain event : 22 - 26 Jan 2012 [Re: Squid]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5232
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Before and after shot in Bellingen today
No real rain here today and the rivers are starting to drop quite quickly smile

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